2024 Senate Map Based On Current Polling Averages From EVERY SINGLE RACE!

today we'll be taking a look at the 2024 Senate map based on current polling averages from every single race and we're going to do it a little bit differently we're going to go by poll closing time so you can see the map fill in just like it would on Election night we'll begin with the states where voting will end at 700 p.m. eastern time so these are the first states where polls will be closing and of course Indiana is going to be a solid red state is probably going to be one of the first races to be called while Vermont will easily go in favor of Bernie Sanders who is going to win reelection to a fifth term down in Virginia Tim Kane is running for re-election he was Hillary Clinton's running mate in 2016 obviously he wasn't very effective many people don't even know who he is at all and looking at the polling average Kane leads by 12.2% which is okay considering he is a multi- term Senator but he is still on track to win Virginia is going to be a likely Blue State then at 7:30 polls will close in Ohio and West Virginia these are two states that currently have Democratic senators in Ohio we have shered brown and in West Virginia Joe Mansion now in the state of Ohio shared Brown won re-election by seven points in the last election while Joe Mansion won his re-election by three points back in 2018 18 today Joe Mansion is not running for re-election Republicans nominated Jim Justice the very popular Republican governor and Mansion probably assumed that he wasn't going to win which definitely would have been true Mansion would have been competitive against any other Republican but Jim Justice was the only one that he couldn't beat and so he dropped out this is going to be a very safe race for the GOP now that the Democrats don't have an incumbent running there and up in Ohio shared Brown leads by just 3 point 6% his lead has been shrinking over the election cycle in November of last year we had a poll showing him ahead by 10% today in the most recent poll he leads by just two bnie Moreno can actually come out on top here even though he is slightly behind with two months to go in 2020 Donald Trump was supposed to win the Buckeye state by 1% in the end of course he won it by eight so polling underestimating Democrats is not new and this is definitely a race to watch right now Democrats are ahead but I would say Republicans are slightly favored when it comes to the final Victor next up at 8:00 P.M voting will end in 12 races many of these are surprisingly closed especially the elections in New Jersey and Maryland but Pennsylvania is also tightening up so we're going to start off in Maine where Angus King is running for reelection he leads by 10 points he's an independent the caucuses with the Democratic party so he's basically like Bernie Sanders very much to the left and this poll says he'll win by 10 but honestly he's going to win by more he's very popular in his home state just like Susan Collins who is a republican but these incumbents in Maine they always do very well and so polling shows Democrats ahead by 10 points but in the end they're probably going to win by slightly more down in Pennsylvania we have a race that is becoming much more competitive than it was just two weeks ago Bob Casey leads by 3.4% over David McCormack if you look at polling from just two weeks ago at the end of August Casey led by 7.6 and so this race wasn't competitive at any point throughout the year until now David McCormack is a very good nominee from the GOP side he ran for the nomination in 2022 but he lost to M Oz who eventually lost John fedman by nearly five points in the election and fedman had so many health issues he should have been easy to beat but Oz was the wrong choice if McCormack had been nominated two years ago he would have been able to defeat fetman there's no doubt about that but against Bob Casey Casey is a stronger nominee especially because he is an incumbent that is why he's leading right now but this race is probably going to get more and more competitive as the presidential election years and so we're going to keep an eye on it but for right now the Keystone State is more competitive than it's been in the past year next up in Maryland we have another competitive race even though it honestly shouldn't be Democrats are barely ahead here Angela also Brooks leads by 4.4% a poll release in August showed her and Larry Hogan in a tight Larry Hogan is a very popular former Republican governor of Maryland this race is getting Tighter and Tighter and so the only reason why Hogan isn't winning is because he is running as a Republican and in terms of the Senate races the national count in the senate in terms of who has the majority that matters a lot more honestly than who these specific Cates are because even though Hogan is a more modern Republican he is still going to be able to help Trump and the GOP pass a lot of their legislation which is why Democrats are hesitant to support a governor that many of them approve of and so right now Marilyn is also going to be lean blue but this 4.4% margin is pretty small it is definitely within the margin of error and I would not be surprised if Larry Hogan who won re-election by a solid margin in 2018 if he came out on top here but for now just like Pennsylvania it is going to be lean blue it'll definitely be an interesting race in New Jersey we have another election where Democrats are super vulnerable in this is the one that Bob Menendez left vacant he is no longer running for re-election he's already resigned after being convicted of multiple charges of bribery and so Andy Kim is the Democratic nominee and he barely leads here even though New Jersey is a state that Joe Biden won by 16 points in the last election the impact that Menendez has had here cannot be understated New Jersey is going to be one of the most competitive States this November it's also going to be closer in the presidential election than it typically is and so the state is also going to be lean blue and out of the four lean blue states on the map so far Ohio Pennsylvania New Jersey and Maryland I would be very very surprised if Republicans didn't win at least one of them this November moving on to Missouri where Josh Holly unseeded CLA MC CasCal in 2018 this was a flip for the GOP today Josh Holly is going to win by double digit margin he leads by 12 points Missouri is going to be a likely Blue State while in Tennessee Marsh Blackburn is ahead by nearly 18 obviously this race is going to be solid for the Republicans and finally in Florida this is the last state that we have pulling from out of the states in yellow the sunshine state is going to reelect Rick Scott who won his first race in 2018 to the Senate it was a pretty impressive Victory he defeated Bill Nelson who is running for a fourth term son is now the NASA administrator so he's done quite well after losing but this was a race that nobody thought Republicans were going to win and it is why the GOP was able to expand their majority in 2018 and polling today has Scott leading by 4.3% if he didn't lose six years ago against the incumbent today as the incumbent there's basically no way that Scott is going to lose his reelection in the end he's going to win by at least seven points Florida is a red State Mark Rubio won his reelection in 2022 by 16 points there's really no reason why Scott wouldn't get near that Florida will be lean red on our map right now but in the end he'll win by much more the remaining States though are going to be pretty solid for one party or the other Mississippi will of course be solid red well Democrats will easily carry Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island and Delaware before we continue 83% of you guys are not subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link in the description below moving on to the states where voting will end at 900 p.m. we have another batch of 11 states this is the second largest poll closing of the night we're going to begin in the midwest first off in Minnesota where Amy Kosar is going to win her reelection she's running for her fourth term she's a pretty popular incumbent in fact she won by 24 points in her last race 6 years ago this time around in a president Cal election year it's going to be closer but she is no doubt the favorite the state of Minnesota is going to be likely blue while in Wisconson Tammy Baldwin is a popular enough incumbent that just her incumbency will probably be enough for her to win her reelection Republicans have nominated an okay candidate but honestly with Baldwin's popularity and the fact that she leads by six points in the polls it is difficult to see Republicans making a flip here Wisconsin is going to be lean blue but just barely and in the Wolverine state of Michigan we have an open seat it's Mike Rogers the Republican versus Alyssa slotkin the Democrat Democrat Debbie stabenau who was the incoming decided not to run for re-election this is a close race this can definitely get competitive especially considering that polling almost always overestimates Democrats in the state of Michigan in fact in 2020 Gary Peters the incoming Democrat was supposed to win by at least 5 to Seven Points his race went down to a T margin there's no reason why that couldn't happen again and so Michigan polling right now gives sloin a lean margin of Victory but this will definitely be another key state to watch you can see the Democrats are doing okay in defending many of their states yes they're leading slightly in the polls but when they have so many vulnerable positions at least some of them are going to turn red and it'll be more than enough to give Republicans a sizable majority moving on to New York Democrats are on track to win by 23 points with kerson Jill brand running for reelection while in Arizona this race is kind of gone for Republicans kri lake is not the best nominee for the Republicans they should not have nominated her after she lost to Katie Hobbs Hobbs was a pretty underwhelming candidate for the governorship lake R against Hobbs in 2022 Lake lost by a tilt margin and today ran GGO who is a relatively popular Congressman in the state he leads by 7.3% in the polling Republicans don't need the seat by any means so it's not at all a problem but as of right now it doesn't seem like Carrie lake is going to come out on top in her race unless something terrible happens to Ruben gyo in the next few months so Arizona is going to be a likely Blue State while in New Mexico Martin hrich leads by 99.5% he's the Democratic incumbent he is in a relatively safe position another likely Blue State and in Texas Ted Cruz is ahead by 6% yes his race in 2018 against oror was competitive but col all red is nowhere near the level of aor better oror was really an extraordinary candidate 6 years ago he made this race very very competitive but I guess all red Cruz is going to have a pretty easy path to Victory it is going to be lean Republican but in the end he'll be able to win by nearly 10 points and in the remaining three states we actually have two races in Nebraska one is a special election all of them are going to go in favor of the GOP an hour later at 10 p.m. polls will close in Montana Utah and Nevada in Montana Democrats are defending this seed if they lose Montana they will lose the outright majority Republicans have already flipped West Virginia this will put them at 50 essentially and if they win Montana when the rest of the map is filled in they will be at 51 and the bad news for Democrats is that they truly are losing this race John tester is the best nominee Democrats could to put up he's the incumbent he is running for a fourth term but he's just not going to win it in 2018 this was a Blue Wave year he was barely able to come out on top against bat Rosendale today he is going to lose to Tim sheii shei leads by 5.2% and it wasn't always this way at the beginning of the year John tester was still leading in the polls but that is no longer the case voters are going to vote for Trump at the top of the ticket and then many of them sheii right under over tester so Montana is going to be a lean Red State without Montana Democrats have no Pathway to retaining their Senate majority however they are doing well in Nevada where incing Jackie Rosen is running for reelection she leads by a double digit margin in the polling and this race is only getting worse and worse for the GOP but once again this is not a race that Republicans need by any means Jackie Rosen is a strong candidate she defeated a republican incumbent in 2018 Dean heler by a fivepoint margin so Nevada today will be likely blue while Utah will of course remain in the hands of the Republicans even though Romney isn't running for reelection and in these final three states we obviously know who's going to win Washington California polls will close at 11:00 p.m. Hawaii at 1:00 a.m. in Washington and C Maria cwell leads by 14.5% it is barely going to be a likely Blue State so close to that 15-point solid threshold in California Adam Schiff is ahead by 24% against Steve Garvey he going to be another easy victory for the Democrats and of course Hawaii mey Herona is going to win her re-election by 15 points or more and So based on current polling averages it just isn't happening for the Democrats they're defending so many seats they're vulnerable in so many I expect Republicans to win at least 52 to 53 they have a very good chance in Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania and Maryland but at the very least they're going to flip both West Virginia and Montana a very good showing for the Republicans who have been out of power in the upper chamber of Congress for the last 4 years thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the 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