MLB Picks, Predictions and Best Bets Today | Royals vs Guardians | Braves vs Twins | 8/27/24

[Music] the Braves taking on the twins the Royals taking on the Cleveland Guardians Yankees Washington and Toronto Boston Red Sox that's some plays and Analysis that are going to be coming your way right here on first pitch wager talk TV sure football season might be right around the corner but we're still here cashing some tickets on the diamond and joining me I'm very excited to welcome in it's like the debut of two of my favorites here we got Ross Benjamin and Jesse shes so gentlemen I know the chat's going to be bumping they love the single game videos that you guys are dropping so you're hanging out give a shout out to these guys make sure you hit the like button and if you don't want to miss those single game videos just hit that subscribe button the little notification uh Bell will let you know when we're going live here as well so boys let's get right into it as we finally got you guys on here I don't want to waste any time just chitchatting let's talk some games here and Ross has tabbed in here the braavos and the twins we're going to start off with a total here Ross you think Tuesday might be a day when there isn't as much run production what are you thinking in this one Ross yeah especially after last night's uh 10 to six win by Atlanta uh it's going to influence the betters a little bit but it's not going to influen me here uh Simeon Woods Richardson gets the start for the Twins and town hom starts this year he's been solid with a 329 ER and a 104 whip uh the twins despite that game going over last night have played 4- one to the under in their last five at home the twins Bullpen since August the 1 has has a solid 117 whip which is very good uh Atlanta by the way they went over for the first time in eight games last ton night uh so they played seven and one to the under in their last eight and during that course of time they're only allowing an average of a shade under three runs per game matter of fact they've also gone under the total in 11 of their last 14 if you've been following the Braves this year uh they played under the total uh more than anybody in baseball and also the Braves 16 and seven to the under in their last 23 on the road following an over in their previous game Spencer schallen back for the uh Atlanta Braves since coming up from the miners this year has been absolutely terrific I mean especially over his last eight start stand where he has a 284 ER and 087 whip and averaging 6.3 Innings pitched per start which uh really takes the workload off the bullpen I am going to go with Minesota Atlanta under the total of eight and a half looking for the under out the gate for our man Ross Benjamin W.B RB you can check him out we got some great deals that are going right now that we'll be sharing in just a few moments but first let's talk some Royals and Guardians this one going to Progressive Field we got Jesse Shu breaking this one down it's Lorenzen and Williams in this and you're looking at about let's call it like uh minus 150 up to 160 at some spots if you want to back the Guardians here how are you looking to bet this one Jesse though I think they got the wrong te team favorite here Dan I was watching your show yest special you're saying Jesse I like it I like it absolutely I was watching your show yesterday you had a guy by the name of Brian power on the show and he said uh clearly Cleveland's the better team in this series and uh I will point out that Brian power is from Cleveland and uh I disagree with his analysis of that certainly not since the allstar break Cleveland hasn't been the better team uh Kansas City nine and three in their last 12 overall uh they're really knocking the cover off the ball averaging 5.7 runs per game in August only Arizona is hitting more than that uh 5.9 runs per game since the allstar break they're only a game back in the division Cleveland is trending in the opposite direction three and eight their last 11 they're 20th in scoring since the All-Star break and you you look at the two starting pitchers today Lorenzen going for Kansas City great pickup for them he's not a flashy guy not a big name but he's got a decade of experience in the majors he's always been fairly Dependable he he doesn't really get rocked very often his numbers in Kansas City in four starts 2-0 with a 1.99 erra and then you got Gavin Williams the young guy going for Cleveland he has really struggled he has consistently struggled his numbers at home he's 0 and4 with an 8.66 erra in just four starts his last home start was a loss to the Orioles he gave up six runs on eight hits a pair of home runs a pair of walks in just four Innings uh we can get Kansas City as a dog for the first five innings with this matchup and get the plus a half at minus 110 I think that's a high percentage play for almost a pick them price I'm going to say my big game breakdown is Kansas City first half plus a half I like it a little Kansas City action you know the chat loves that Rong team favored angle hop Below in the comments let us know if you see any other games where that may be the case here on the board um any thoughts here I know you broke down obviously the first five either you guys got any feeling on the total we got Boss 429 asking about how about the over in that Kansas City and Cleveland game so for me I mean nothing jumps off the board me you were right around the number last night you know you can't just take last night's results and transfer on over but Ross any anything on the total for you I know you uh you're definitely a totals guy so any thoughts here in Royals Guardians total yeah I uh would stay away from the total I mean again especially the over uh and I'm not willing to go on the under either because of what Jesse just alluded to uh the Royals are tearing the cover off the ball as he eloquently put uh but you know you're looking at a very high percentage of public betting right now in terms of uh volume of tickets and uh money bet on the over right now so I'm not a guy who likes to jump all over uh whatever the public is doing uh but that's not the end all Beall and we're also seeing at one uh particular sports book it's up to nine and a half right now so um yeah I I'm gonna stay away from this total yeah I'm I'm with you sheer stay away for me here in game two as far as the total is concerned if you like the side the first five was the way to look at taken that half a run for our man Jesse sh well Jesse you mentioned that you uh you checked out the show yesterday so then you well know that anytime that I can bring up my Philadelphia Phillies especially when they're actually winning again I will and we got Nola on the bump and Verlander so by if you're just going by name only Marquee pitching matchup that you have right here it's just reality then has to set in when you're talking about both of these pitchers one maybe more than other but any thoughts for you Astros Phillies and we do have some folks saying happy Patrick Corbin day here in the chat uh don't worry we will be talking about that game coming up here in Best Bets but as far as the Phillies are concerned here today anything for you in this one Jesse I know you love coming on here and fading people's team so is that what we're doing today ni plus money price we look at the Astros yeah you know I I had a look at this game I I wanted to be involved but I I didn't really see enough value to make a move on it personally but certainly I do have a lean um you know I don't want to be betting on a what is it a 41 year old or 4 I mean Verlander's on the wrong side of 40 he's got one start under his belt since coming back that was a loss he he was okay he didn't log a lot of innings um say what you want about NOLA he's still been uh decent and Philly's playing better baseball right now Houston went on that run they passed uh the Mariners in the division but they've sort of been tripping over their feet of late I would lean Philly in this game uh but like I said I I just didn't see the value yeah and Ross it really has been that kind of H story here for Verlander season I think what he he came back and then it was two and a half months because his neck was stiff so so that's definitely when you know a guy's nearing the end of his career when you're Lo missing two and a half months for next stiffness um but like Ross kind of said there or yeah like like Jesse kind of said there um when he finally did return two runs four hits five innings sure he went over his strikeout prop striking out six and walking one uh but you only saw 76 pitches so you could argue you know somewhat efficient but this Phillies lineup if you're throwing junk at him you know if if you're or if you you know throw it right over the plate or anything like that sure it's not like they've been hitting like crazy but they can make you pay here a little bit any any thoughts on a team total over for the Phillies going against the Verlander or or how would you would maybe attack this one yeah I mean if I had a lean on the total I'd go under and uh you know look I got a soft heart for old guys Dan you know come on man you know how about Jesse going I ain't betting on a guy over 40 what you know you're 49 Jesse I'm bet on you you know come on T Ross anyway yeah exactly anyway look it um you know this total is up to uh nine right now in some places uh and eight and a half in others I mean if you can get a nine here might be worth a look to go under the total uh I think that brander uh again uh you said the Phillies ain't hitting exactly tremendously right now but we know what they're capable of and the Astros really are not a is not the touch type of hitting team we've seen in years past so still a solid ball Club but I I think they're benefiting from the division they in and I think this pitching matchup lives up to uh it's it's billing and I think we'll see Verlander give him a good six Innings tonight and I Nola uh I always like Daron Nola I think he shuts down the Astros tonight I think we might see a low-scoring game here yeah and even with uh how you mentioned how the Astros really it's not like you have to worry about them all that much tearing the cover off of the ball we had a a question here in the chat uh Hal L was asking Nola under five and a half strikeouts he's gone under that number five straight games before that it was another uh one game that he went under that so he's gonna be right around that number and I also am not sure if he has to throw as many strikeouts to get these guys out uh you know you're you're going to be seeing a potential line outs this that and the other thing what do you think about that one Ross because I I right around the number I maybe lean under but I don't know if I'm betting that one yeah Houston's a contact hitting team so and they're also they're I believe don't quote me on this but they're one of the better teams in not striking out in terms of uh their strikeout to At Bat Ratio or plate appearance ratio so yeah that makes a lot of sense to me Dan all right uh we got some other questions here guys some games that we'll hit on if you're just joining us we already touched upon Atlanta taking on the twins KC Cleveland and just the Phillies and the Houston Astros right there we got Yankees Washington coming up best bet in that from Ross Benjamin and a free best bet coming up in Toronto vers the Red Sox from our man Jesse Shu a question here from David G uh he's asking about any thoughts on no one to score six in the Brewers game so he really likes getting into the alternate markets he's looking to maybe parlay to together no one to score six in Brewers taking on the uh the San Francisco Giants and I think he would pair it with the White Socks game as well anytime we're fading the white socks guys I'm I'm interested but David Gary saying no team to score six in Brewers or white socks so Jesse I'll start with you any opinions on either of those games and I like David G Going Down the board trying to find himself some value here yeah I mean I think that uh Brewers game looks like it potential pitchers du will um certainly like no one to score six the question is at what price he did he give you a price there because uh if if it's not too Juiced up I think that's probably a good bet um San Francisco doesn't hit the ball very well on the road uh you know what is it Webb and Meyers the pitching match up there and I think both of them have been pretty solid all right Ross so you know I I hate to even have us have to talk about the Chicago white socks I mean if you want to give any more thoughts on the Giants and Brewers be my guest but somebody put in the chat earlier it's like if it ain't broke don't fix it why don't we just keep betting against the Chicago White sock sure they're going to sneak up on someone eventually but uh even at minus 145 it looks cheap going here on the Rangers right well I guess because garri crochet is on the mound so that would be my only hesitancy I really like uh what the gentleman just said about both games nobody scoring six runs yeah look the Chicago White Socks couldn't score six runs on the Chinese tape uh Little League All-Star team let alone uh against a Major League Baseball competition I mean you look they've been at bottom of the barrel offensively all year crochet we know how good he is uh he's uh so so but against the white socks he might look like the next coming of Sandy kofax so uh and then also the other game uh Brew the Brewers Tobias Myers to me is a very underrated pitcher um so and and then Logan web going for San Francisco so like Jesse alluded to uh that shapes up to be a very good pitching matchup and I I certainly would agree with that gentleman's assessment I am not one of those guys who play alternate lines but uh in terms of if he's asking my opinion I think he's on the right track very fair hop Below in the comments keep those coming what are some of your favorite bets here and shout out to David Gary wager talk is King no the chat is King we appreciate you guys check these guys out WT was what' you say there I got something to add about the white socks Texas game the talk about crochet getting the start the problem with crochet is he's he's been good but he hasn't pitched more than four Innings I think in seven or eight straight starts now it looks it seems very clear that he's limited to four Innings so uh most assuredly he's only going to Pitch Four Innings here uh Chicago's Bullpen for the other uh five innings that that's a a big concern if you're trying to bet bet unders yeah no that's that's definitely fair and definitely something to uh keep your eye on as I mentioned some great deals that we have going on over at wager talk and both of these guys college football experts and don't worry they're still going to be cashing alongside you baseball cappers as well it's kind of like quiet time in the book for baseball all the odds makers are looking at this big screen of college football games NFL right around the corner that's where we attack some MLB but uh college football week one it's n folks and for a limited time you can get 14 days of all access for under 200 you get an extra week so that's 21 days all access service and Ross you're uh you're getting pretty excited here for college football am I correct you'd be a great Capper to pair with this one right ABS absolutely uh 62 and 42 run to finish last season finished number two overall in college football uh in terms of money earned that 62 and 42 run was from September 9th on uh so a 60% run hit 58% for the entire season so yeah I would uh highly recommend folks even uh if you go and just buy my college football annual package if you know you're talking $529 but uh yeah I'm looking forward to college football I know Jesse is as well yeah and I I'll say too and Jesse I want to get your thoughts of what you have over at your page but as I mentioned you know continue cashing on some of these other sports like even with football back Ross still a terrific MLB expert you've seen him in his single game videos on wager talk today finally he's joining us here and we love that uh but with that all access you're also going to get the MLB plays still so if action is the name of your game you're going to get it across all different types Sports and Jesse um I I believe with with your all access you know obviously you're going to be getting some football here you're going to keep going with baseball and then uh even don't we still have Canadian football every now and then you're sprinkling in for your clients as well absolutely and I've I've had plenty of success with Canadian football with sports like with baseball Canadian football soccer is another one that I I get involved in uh come football season you're going to be limited to the best of the best with those picks so if I put out a pick on uh on soccer or Canadian football you can rest assured that I really like that game to just the fact that I'm I'm spending my time uh investing in betting on that game because I will be focused heavily on uh college football in NFL most mostly college football uh I I tried to put out uh every game with lines for week zero and week one with video previews on wager talk TV uh just three games so far hit two of the three uh picks in the videos but that included the plus 400 moneyline winner with Georgia Tech so really excited moving forward getting a great reaction from the viewers yeah all those Sharps saying I'm laying the 10 and a half how are they gonna stop the run and Jesse SCH just says forget the 10 and a half we're not taking that we're taking money line uh that's what you're going to get here from some of our experts and all right guys we're going to keep the lights on at least we hit the the promotional portion here of the program Best Bets are coming up but let's hit one more game before that as Scott chaffy is asking simple question no alt Lines no first fives no pitcher props do the Cardinals win today he's asking it's Padre's Cardinal 745 Eastern is the first pitch in this one it's CE and mikolas in this one um so what we start with you Ross any thoughts here simple question I'll give you guys both a chance to answer cardal do they win for our man Scott chaffy H I get I mean if they're going to beat the Padres with Dylan CE on the mound I guess this would be the time because CE hasn't been as dominant of late as he's been all season long but again against a quality he now the Cardinals still leave a lot to be desired offensively this is a staya away game for me so I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other here Dan Jesse how about you any thoughts here a stay away for Ros and there's nothing wrong with that that's one of our best tools as betters is the oddsmakers even with football right around the corner they're putting up a line on every single game they still got 15 games to figure out here in MLB we as betters get to choose the ones that we think they messed up a little bit on any thoughts for our man Scotty if uh if you think that the Cardinals are the side or would you make a case here for the favorite yeah I'd probably lean Padres in this game and I'd also caution that this could be a game that gets out of hand as far as the scoring goes check the weather report it looked like a extremely warm air light Breeze maybe blowing out you could see a lot of home runs in this game that adds another variable to it I I yeah I I would be inclined to back the uh the visitors here rather than the home team Nicholas has struggled in his last five starts or so yeah and as far as um weather is concerned this is really like the game outside of Atlanta Minnesota Texas and Chicago White Socks the one that is most likely to maybe be affected by weather is this St Louis and San Diego Padres games definitely keep an eye on that it's definitely a way that you want to factor in how you're betting this game I would maybe say look closer to betting this one at game time I'm not sure if you're going to be losing much value either way I really don't expect there to be as much you're not really at this time of year going to see as many huge line moves simply because you're looking at some now more common and and lower volume markets so with the weather in this one probably one Scotty that I would be waiting on and Hal L pointing out that mikolas burned me last week he's so bad and pitch a gem last week um yeah that's that's what mikas kind of does it's like when you're like finally I figured him out and I could fade him that's when he decides to screw you so yeah that's that's that's why I would probably push the brakes and uh and and have a little Caution there as well all right boys 25 minutes into the show best bet time for the folks Ross we'll start with you remind the folks what you have up over at wagertalk.com and let us know how you think we could get after Patrick Corbin day it's one of our favorite holidays to celebrate um I will say Corbin last two outings haven't been awful but now he's playing this Yankees lineup that looked like the Yankees again here Ross so uh Yankees Nats how are we betting this one yeah Patrick Corbin day I love that because I'm all for it uh 26 starts this year and in those 26 starts opponents have averaged 5.7 runs per game uh so he's not exactly held the competition down I mean not all of that it's on him some of it's on the bullpen but uh as we well know I always scratch my head every year going in when I see Patrick Corbin listed as uh a starting pitcher and wonder uh I guess I got to teach my kid how to throw left-handed because I don't know how he has a spot in any team's rotation uh since August the 1 the Yankees have hit 42 home runs and 22 games uh Stanton's healthy now uh chisolm's back in the lineup getting production from Wells obviously SoDo and and uh judge uh have a magnificent years the Yankees uh this year on the road versus left-handed starting pitchers uh averaging 6.1 runs per game of course there was only 11 of those situations that came up with they prospered heavily in that situation the Yankees are also an extremely good road team actually way better on the road than at Yankee Stadium 42 and 24 and averaging 5.5 runs per game and uh the Yankees in this year 18 away games against National League CL clubs and they've dominated going 13 and five and averaging 6.8 runs per game so you couple all those impressive uh Yankees uh offensive stats that I just reeled off and couple that with the fact that you're facing a pitcher the caliber of Patrick Corbin uh I'm going to go I at a I rarely rarely ever do this uh this high of a team total but I'm not going to let that affect me in this one I'm going to go New York Yankees over the total of 5 and a half at money line odds of minus 105 is my best bet tonight going over runs expected and uh who knows with Aaron judge playing like an absolute alien Aaron judge might uh contribute half of those runs factor in the RBI might contribute damn near all of them I mean even how he's playing in the Outfield um hell of a job of what we're seeing out of Aaron judge just playing like he's from our space right now hop Below in the comments let us know what you're looking to Ross's best bet going over the team total with the New York Yankees what's your best bet we want to hear in those comments below Jesse Shu also has the best bet coming your way here and uh man it's just been all about fading uh the Red Sox here as of late Jesse Toronto taking them on and they're going to be seeing each other quite a few times over these next few days and Monday was very good to the Toronto Blue Jays 4-1 and 73 wins for Toronto so this uh Red Sox team who needs wins right now when you're talking about playoff contention they're starting to look like a team who's going to be on the outside looking in with these what is it five straight losses that they've been working with you think they make it six straight today or is your best bet in attacking this game in a little bit different of a way how are you looking to hit it Jesse yeah no I'm going to go with Canada's team even after I made fun of Brian power for being a homer I'm gonna go with the the Canadian team Toronto uh I mean these teams are trending in opposite directions Toronto's one five straight but more importantly Vladimir Guerrero is uh knocking the cover off the ball in August he's batting over 400 nine home runs so far this month uh Boston four straight losses they're six and 12 in their last 18 overall uh you look at the starting pitching matchup it's actually uh kind of uncanny you got yariel Rodriguez and Cooper chrisw so the eras Rodriguez 4.40 ER chriswell 4.41 let's look at the whips 1.33 whip for Rodriguez 1.34 whip for Chris Chris well so difficult to say that either uh either team has the advantage although I will point out that chriswell in his last four appearances he's given up nine runs on 18 hits six walks in just 10 and two3 innings of work and and uh the Jays just have a hotter lineup and then Boston is the favorite in this game for whatever reason uh you I'm I'm scratching my head again saying wrong team favored but a very cheap price taking the Jays On The Run line uh we I don't trust the Jay's Bullpen so uh I will take that run and a half as insurance in case uh the bullpen blows it late but I I like the blue jays plus one and a half here taking the run and a half with the Toronto Blue Jays hop alone in the comments let us know how you're looking to bet that one and while you're hanging out down there make sure you hit that like button and you subscribe that little bell get you notified when we go live you're watching us on social we're on X Instagram Tik Tok that follow button and we'll be right there in the timeline getting you those winners that you know and you love don't go anywhere though folks 30 minutes from now we got wager talk today coming your way so do not touch that dial hang out with us here we got Giani the GRE the $2 Tuesday handicapper coming your way Mark Zeno going to be talking some player props coming up for the NFL season and we got some UFC action with Giani the Greek and of course you got rock steady Teddy covers and unfortunately you got the pr too but he's coming up here on the channel don't go anywhere make sure that you hit that Bell on the way out we would appreciate it last thing I want to share with you um Steve Merill just gave me a shout out just saying hey can you let folks know because I don't want them to miss out 12- one run that Steve Merrill is on 15-2 MLB run and he's rocking with a five percenter this night only his third five percenter in the past two years he doesn't drop them often when he does Cashes in with him so check out Steve Merill over at wager talk as well wt.mc Benjamin Jesse sh as well uh that that special I it can't be over stated 21 days of action and you get all access you're saving money folks and you're cashing with some of the best in the biz so check them out big shout out to Ross and Jesse joining us here on the show boys we gotta have you back it was fun and uh and best of luck boys cash those tickets to the chat best of luck to you as well we'll see you locked and load at 11:00 a.m. eastern 8 A.M on the west coast Wednesday's first pitch coming your way until then everyone