2024 Fantasy Football - Alvin Kamara DRAFT GUIDE - TOP 10 Running Back

Intro [Music] yo here we go what is going on cover one crew hope everybody is good welcome back to the show today we're diving into draft guide on Alvin camra and I get it okay this has been a hot topic for me I've been super uber promotive of an Alvin CRA a lot of y'all jumping off the bandwagon and I don't understand why okay I get it the dreaded 30 years old is coming so a lot of y'all fading him down the board but when we discuss what he is and what he has done in the NFL thus far in his NFL tenure I mean you still can't get off this bandwagon especially what the New Orleans Saints have on this offense they didn't do anything abundant to you know make confusion in this running back room I know a lot of y'all want Kendra Miller Stats to be something but don't jump off the Alvin CRA bandwagon especially for where we can get this man in our drafts let's talk what this man did specifically on his statline in the last four years and okay what he's been in the NFL for what seven years at this point I want to start before we dive into these stats what he has done in committee backfields we've seen it with the lat Murray with the mark ingrams and he still has been putting up massive amount of points and productivity his attempts line he held 50.5% of the rush attempts in those committee back fields 52.2% of the rush yards in those committee back fields and 61.4% of the TD upside from 201 18 to 2020 with an Alvin chimra or with a Mark Ingram and A L Murray so there the committee backfield should never scare you off even if Kendra Miller does turn into something like a Mark Ingram like a quality you know onew punch thunder and lightning running back situation this will only help benefit what Alvin chimra does on the field chimra holds 17.3% of the target share over his seven-year career this is massive they you know they utilize it Alvin chra in the past game so I still don't understand why everybody's dogging this man like he's just going to automatically find this Cliff of falling off because he just turned 29 here in July I don't buy it for one second yes I understand we're seeing statistically speaking Alvin cha see a drop off year over-year over the last four years completely understand we're talking even boom rate man 93% boom rate as he did finish as the running back won back in 2020 he has never seen the likes of that season since that 2020 season however 76.9% in 21 he had 53.3% in 22 and then came back with a vengeance in 2023 with 76.9 finished as the running back 14 he did Miss three games overall due to that suspension I mean okay he did get hampered with some ankle injuries I believe as well yes the stat line didn't look as great in those 13 contests where he was 13 for 18694 yards only 5 TDS but but he caught himself a boatload of reception 75 for 466 and one touchdown so the touchdown productivity did go down this past year but at least we still see that the target share is still going to be very high for an Alvin chra so why are you fading this man especially where we can draft him this is still Alvin ca's backfield even like I'm saying let's just let's just say that kendre Miller is going to be that dude and he's going to be able to come out the gates and be the running back that they thought when they drafted him this is still okay he will hold at least at minimum 50% if not 49% of the workload in the rushing upside and still catch a boatload of passes we will get into you know the depth chart and what they look like right now but I still love what these Saints can be with an Alvin chimra because the team didn't do anything necessarily to be overly competitive that means they will still be playing from behind lot of garbage time productivity highly likely coming for an Alvin Cho last year's statline 480 attempts for 1742 in yards and 13 rushing TD so they did go away from the rushing aptitude early on when Alvin CRA came back from his suspension he was playing lights out like a bad out of hell he was getting you anywhere from 17 to 22 points each and every week carrying your fantasy clubs and then he kind of fell off as a fantasy playoffs did come so you understand why people are sour they feel like they're going to Saints are going to move in a different direction I don't foresee that whatsoever man his best season like I said back in 2020 336.00 points 2 2.4 points per game and he had 10 top 10 finishes we won't see that ever again I'm not going to sit here and lie to y'all and say and promote that Alvin cero is going to be the best running back in all fantasy football cuz it's likely done and it's passed he hit his once but I mean still four top 10 finishes last year the Year prior to that and then six in 2021 so he's still getting you a heaping of Point productivity that we can absolutely get behind but being the running back 14 last year on missing those uh What uh three games on suspension missing I believe another two due to injury so come on you got to understand where these stats would have been he would have been very close to his career totals of about 900 rushing yards if he would have played in those contests we Injuries speak of those injuries okay there's a lot of people that do get scared off with Alvin chra due to injuries and I completely understand we're talking 2019 going back a few years he had the p uh knee PCL spring grade two big problem we know that he gets nicked up quite a bit and this is is a big con concerned 2019 dealt with that ankle sprain as well grade one okay it's a pedal ankle sprain so we will see all of these issues when it comes to Alvin cimo because it is historic in his uh injury history without question 2021 dealt with the ne MCL grade two sprain he missed some time there as well 2022 he had a chest rib fracture kept him out of some contest also and then last year dealt with the ankle sprain once again so I'm not you know saying I know exactly which ankle it was I I'm not doing that much research but at least we understand that you know the base of his injuries are coming from the lower body from the legs so you know the volume this has probably been why they've always wanted a committee backfield for an Alvin chimra as well so they can at least alleviate some of the volume some of the workload but he will get his in the pass game there is no question whether or not they want him running the football as much as he does taking all those hits and Punishment to not see his way into the medical room I think is why the Saints always have tried to promote a committee back field with an Alvin chra but on the mid-level risk for injuries injury projection here in 2024 I mean it's warranted if we're going to say anything negative about an Alvin chimra yes we see the stats going down yes he is 29 years of age and yes his body has seen some levels of breakdown and seeing time in the medical room so I completely understand that part of it when you guys want to dog somebody like an Alvin chimra but overall from the depth chart perspective there is not a whole heck of Alvin Kamara a lot because the Saints didn't really do a whole heck of a lot this off season Alvin cha still the top dog in this running back room yes they signed Jamal Williams hoping he was going to be that TD vulture like he was in Detroit did not happen man Williams only had 106 carries for 306 and one TD year prior to that what did he have 18 touchdown rushes with the Lions it's not they're going to continue to attempt it there is no question it's between Jamal Williams and a kendre Miller who Miller 41 rushing attempts for 156 and one touchdown and already he's injured here in training camp this this is a very big problem the other one is the tesm hill effect as long as this tight end running back quarterback whatever you want to call him hybd player football player Tamm Hill is on the field 81 attempts for 401 and 4 TDs he's the vulture man and this is another situation where I understand a lot of people are going to criticize an Alvin chra where he does not see the goal line upside I get it man it's always outside the 10 yard line 15 yd line he's got to dance his way into the end zone to uplift his rushing touchdowns I completely understand he did have I believe two or three drops in the Red Zone which would have inflated his TDS as well cimo I'm speaking of but I get why people are like I'm done with this I don't want it his point productivity tells you what you need to know and even though he's not scoring those TDS and it is extremely frustrating watching Tamm Hill score them and vulture all of chimera's touchdowns you still can't fade the fact of what he does on the field some downgrades and I'm going to be fair like I said no bias here only 20% of his career Rush TDS have come in the last three years this is not good man you're talking seven-year career and only 20% has come in the last three years everybody's seeing the downtrend on the TDS and I completely understand 34.8% of receiving TDS have come in the last three years as well not good news we want to see that number increase as well up into the 40s 50s we want to see him utilized in this past game that much more and we're going to blame a Derek Carr and this offense right now because it's not enough productivity for an Alvin chimra in the Red Zone especially for this TD upside they were losing games cuz they were not utilizing in this offense properly yes you got guys like CO2 my dude Chris olve and he's going to be the staple but who's going to be the secondary piece it's got to be an Alvin chra in this in this past game to alleviate a lot of pressure off of Derek car man 14.9% of the target share in the last three years that's on the downtrend as well where it has been much higher pre a Derek Carr so we'll see what it does come down but the big talk will be on what is kendre Miller who's going to take over the role as the secondary running back in this off we will see because it is definitely not specified at this point for ranking purposes like I've been preaching all off season long this value to return on investment is crazy and you got to take advantage where you can this is insanity man running back 17 overall 50 for an Alvin chimra Insanity for a guy who can get you anywhere from 15 to 22 points each and every week still is the lead running back for these New Orleans Saints everyone preaches volume upside the efficiency rates are still here for an Alvin chra James Cook running back 15 Kenneth Walker the third at 16 David Montgomery 18 ra Andre Stevenson 19 Aaron Jones at 20 so everyone's going to say yeah okay he slotted in at 17 where it's fair I would take him over Dre I would take him over Montgomery and Aaron Jones but you can even make those Arguments for James Cook even though I'm a huge supporter of what James Cook is likely going to be in this bills offense once again this season over the 1100 yards TD upside is not necessarily gonna be there once again for James Cook unless he breaks in the open field and scores them that is a caveat Kenneth Walker does see his own sense of time in the medical room but I still love me some Kenneth Walker PPR upside man you're talking 65 to 75 receptions and if he gets in the end zone at least five more times we're talking another top 10 finish for an Alvin chra yes David Montgomery is one that we could also suggest TDS will always uplift his statline but jir Gibbs will eventually start to pull away as the guy in Detroit so Alvin Camaro with no real reliable running back two at running back 17 you got to be kidding me I'm taking that ADP all day long laughing all the way to the bank and overall what are we talking man 29 years of age we got to talk man age3 Age is creeping up for an Alvin chra and I completely understand we normally see the drop off for these running backs body starts wearing down he looked good coming off that suspension last year looked fresh and was dominating fantasy football running backs without question what's the future of Derek Carr this is the biggest question mark this is likely going to be the last kick of the can they drafted themselves a Spencer Rattler could he be potentially be the franchise passer in New Orleans for years to come lots of moving Parts lots of questions that we got to have answered who's going to quarterback this team and lead them somewhere we saw Chris ol you know joking in an interview they asked you know did you add enough weapons to be competitive in a whatever uh for the playoffs this season and Chris said really not really so it's one of those situations how's the morale with these New Orleans Saints but we do know garbage time productivity check down opportunity are going to go to an Alvin Camaro without question can kendre Miller be the guy to take the leap man oh man I'm a kendre Miller fan I am not necessarily a supporter I think he's got Uber talents and you know abilities will he ever showcase that with high levels of consistency I got my doubts man this guy just can't stay on the field he's always nicked up he's always in the medical room will he be able to Showcase some health at least this year if he does I think the one-w punch with Miller and chimra would be a stroke a genius for this offense and would pay high dividends for both these players we will see how it does go down but again three-headed monster likely coming if a Miller if we're talking Miller does stay healthy Jamal Williams likely and Tamm Hill being the goal line opportunity backs where a Miller and Camaro would round out the rest of the product so there is issues here I get it foreheaded Monster lack of TD upside I completely understand but at running back what 1817 you can't shake this whatsoever olave Shahed Tamm Hill and at Perry CRA still got to be that top three Target in this offense without question olav is going to be number one shahid's going to see his games from time to time schemed up but you know the constant in volume is going to be in Alvin chimra number two likely in Target share majority of weeks you got to believe when he was booming at had early on stage it was 100% boom rate since he came back I believe what week four until like week number 10 he was booming every single week for y'all until the end of the season where it did start to taper off but olve is the guy number one and chimra is definitely going to stick and be that guy number two unless a guy like at Perry and rased Shahid do take off in a very big way I still think that open opens up the door for more efficiency for an Alvin chimra as well chimra okay last four years 5,572 yards and 40 total TDS that's a lot of yards man in the last four years so you can't fade this guy for the stuff he's been able to do even when being injured missing some time it hasn't necessarily killed your fantasy club there is lots of opportunity for him as well ranked number sixth in boom rate overall last season post suspension he was killing it even though he did Miss time to the injury he only played in 13 games and still finished as the sixth booming running back this is very good news based on my projections and rankings he should hit around 78.6 on the projected boom rate playing in 14 games 2011 attempts 720 in yards eight rushing touchdowns the eight rushing touchdowns may be a little high I would even haircut that maybe back down to like six or seven but I think it's fair based on how my model did spit this out 65 receptions 410 and two receiving TDS you might even want to flip it where it's five to six rushing TDS and maybe four to five re receiving TDS coming his way either way this statline would end up being running back eight or nine with 238 points and you're getting him at a bargain dollar rate at running back 17 I don't understand why y'all fading in Alvin chra outside of injuries this guy's going to Boom for us again and he's going to be an absolute fixture and I mean in the mock draft I just did on Monday I got Alvin Kara as my running back three so that's Flex Appeal all day long you don't even have you can set it and forget it and you don't even have to think about it Alvin CRA is definitely going to pay dividends even though we do see some things trending in the wrong direction for the Saints and for an Alvin CA I am still all in especially on the value definitely get yourself Alvin chimra on your club because he will pay extreme dividends but there you have it nevertheless as always don't forget to Outro hit that like button hit that subscribe button jump in those comments give me your thoughts what are you guys thinking of Alvin CRA you drafting him you faded him put it in the comments on why you're doing either and we could definitely talk it out but we'll see next time I am out [Music]