Why 0.008% of the U.S. population might determine the election

Published: Sep 11, 2024 Duration: 00:06:23 Category: News & Politics

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B 5,000 people switched from by Dean to Trump all 16 of those Electoral College votes would have gone to Trump as well this gets crazier Arizona razor thin margins Biden won by 4,057 votes if 5,000 of those people changed their minds Trump would have taken all of Arizona's electoral college votes finally look at Wisconsin Biden won by almost 210010 342 Biden supporters changed their votes to Trump Wisconsin's 10 Electoral College votes would have gone to Trump as well so what's the point of this mental map if those roughly 20,000 people across three states Chang their votes handing Trump those 37 Electoral College votes suddenly we end up in the Absurd and almost unprecedented outcome of a perfect tie 269 to 269 what happens in the tie the House of Representatives decides who wins it gets a little complicated but one possible outcome of that vote is that Donald Trump becomes president for a second term all thanks to 21,46 61 voters in a country of more than 330 million people that my friends is Swing the math and it's why Donald Trump and kamla Harris have spent so much time in the seven Battleground States hello Pennsylvania how are we doing that could determine the outcome of the election this November so let's compare how pollsters predict which states will be key Battlegrounds here's a map of the US most of these states have clear enough voting patterns that it would be a surprise if they stepped wildly out of line like with California the joke is that Democrats could run a cardboard cut out there and still probably win in all they likely start with 226 Electoral College votes in the bag that's not far off from the 270 needed to win but on the other side a huge swath the this Republican belt is solidly red that gives Republicans 219 Electoral College votes that they can count on which leaves these seven states where the margins between Victory and defeat are so so thin in 2020 less than three percentage points separated the winner from the loser in each case and each outcome was a major showstopping headline Joe Biden your projected winner in the state of Arizona the Associated Press has just called Wisconsin for Joe Biden Joe Biden has won Michigan and gets the 16 electoral votes [Music] and here's where each side can get really strategic because you don't need to win all seven or even the majority of Swing States in order to win the election either side can win with as few as three of these swing States in Trump's indication there's only one way to do this if he wins North Carolina and Georgia the three biggest most valuable swing States if he doesn't win exactly those three states he'll need at least four of the Swing states to snatch back the presidency or else he'll need to generate another surprise Elsewhere on the map meanwhile there are several combinations of three-state Victories that give Harris the win but that's just a mathematical look at the swing States cap the victory here are the most plausible paths for kamla Harris and Donald Trump [Music] the most straightforward way for her to get elected is still to carry Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin and the one congressional district in Nebraska that sometimes votes for Democrats that would put her at exactly at 270 I think her strategy is going to be to try to gain the Sun Belt states and States like Arizona and Georgia for Donald Trump Trump their path is to hold try to flip Georgia or Arizona or Nevada and then run the table in the Rust Belt and rely on those white rural workingclass voters in Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and wor pointing out if either candidate wins any five of the seven swing States and they hold on to every other state they are expected to that's enough that gets either one across the 270 Electoral College vote Finish Line so easy right you just have to win somewhere between three and five of the Swing States hold the other 20 or so states that everyone just expects you to hold on to and you're golden well each swing state is different different issues different geography different voters Pennsylvania is a great examp example of that it's where Harris began a 5-day Battleground tour Tim Walls as her vice president thanks for watching this video [Music]

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