Cleveland Guardians Pre-Trade Deadline Prospect Rankings and Chatter: Bonus Episode

if some is good more is better at least you're listening to this podcast we hope it's better Jeff and I had so much to talk about about prospects before the trading deadline we decided to give you a bonus episode where we banter about our Prospect rankings and maybe some trade [Music] value you are locked on Guardian your daily podcast on the Cleveland guardians part of the locked on podcast Network your team every [Music] day hello everyone and welcome to today's bonus show of lockdown Guardians I'm not even in the right angles here but uh today's episode is brought to you by supply house man not being very professional supplyhouse.com is a reliable way to get parts fast shop for your next Plumbing HVAC or electrical job and get fast shipping from coast to coast at Supply house.com uh I did not get a chance to pull up a new number but I did want to tell you that the 43 was for wuab 43 for those who have been guessing at things for those who do not know me I'm Jeff Ellis one of the original host here of locked on uh you know from the very beginning all like probably approaching 1300 episodes of this podcast I've been here uh before that I was a lead draft and Prospect Analyst at Scout in 247 um and before that I was your 30th we'll go uh favorite writer at every Cleveland sports blog that has or will existed and I did write for prospects live this very week so you can go check out if you want more of my content I was in their draft review piece oh and uh I'm going to be Tuesday on 97.1 in Columbus at approximately 2:33 if you want even more of me who doesn't want more of Jeff I'm Justin L of the other co-host maybe you want less of me but you might have seen me showcasing my work I'm using this joke two episodes in a row I'm sorry at Guardians basball ins.com where I was once the editor and also now freelancing at the Morning Journal and the News Herald and Prospects live sometime uh not with the draft stuff and maybe sometime in the second half I'll have something for prospects live that's more of off season work for me all right so this is a bonus episode we are going to talk prospects we have a lot of requests for us to talk more about rankings um and what usually happens is Jeff and I will banter about prospects we'll talk about our rankings and other guys and and we're like we should just record this because you know this would be a good episode because people have asked us for a lot of this and we never record it I'm like we need to save this for for an episode um but then we don't have time because we're limited by 30 minutes and we're still limited by 30 minutes here but we actually are just going to do this the entire show because we uh already cover everything on Monday and maybe we'll get to more bazana stuff and draft stuff here but then we'll get to our normal Tuesday episode on Tuesday so uh where do you want to start Jeff uh the first thing we were debating off air was we were talking about the baseball America rankings and I was like can't argue with their their top six like maybe maybe some different orders but like the guys they had in their top six I was like I can't argue with that it's it's a pretty clear-cut group like I guess I I have hanal lower I actually did my my uh pre- deadline rankings over on next year cleveland. substack outcom if you want to read more um I can always tweet that link or put it somewhere but um I guess I was a little lower on Han than some of the consensus so I can believe that had dowy a lot higher than other people do maybe I'm too high on dowy but the top grouping like we both have bazan one I still have manzardo 2 I have burrito 3 and then I have Ralphie four and then I have Angel Martinez 5 right now I probably should make that de Lauder instead of him I should have I'm not gonna change it now because I've already wrote written about it but um I'm still gonna buy in on some of the changes Martinez has made to his profile I think I think it's gonna be plus he can play The Outfield now like he's a good Defender at multiple positions he's got speed and was a little more pop than we thought but that top group of hitters like I just can't believe that there's no pitchers in that top group that's my that's my thought yeah I mean I uh I've got seven hitters in a row to lead it off so that's where I am uh bazan menardo eight yeah minine is eight as well and that's that's Dy there uh but ban monardo we agree those are one and two uh I have Ralphie 3 uh I've been kind of with I just believe in the bat whether or not he plays and goes back to a year ago uh or goes back to I should say this draft but actually all the stuff we talked about in this this year's draft goes back to a year ago where listen you and I talked off air and we get some interesting stories that we can't even talk about um you know just guys who make very poor decisions guys who get in fights with teammates don't want to play baseball guys don't show up guys who decide that they have no love for baseball and don't even show up uh I know you're all saying spill the tea we can't it's unfortunately the way it is maybe once these guys are completely out of baseball we can tell some stories like a year a year after they're done we can start sharing those stories we'll put it that way uh but starting with Ralphie was really like this guy where I heard first about the intangibles and then about the player he's a really good player but it started with him so I I have him at three I really believe in that profile uh I got brdo at four I know every day or Dave Wendell uh is talking about how we shouldn't get sucked in by recency bias it's not recency bias the last two years of data and him figuring out triaa um I've got cho5 I think that he I don't know again Sterling reports he needs to get you know moved quickly I I really believe in him uh Martinez has moved himself up to six on my list with his performance is is quite the jump and here's deer is seven why is D seven people are GNA get mad because I know that a lot of people view him as the I don't even think he's an option for the start of next year right now like yeah he came back and he fell right back into hitting but he missed two months again this year I you have to be available and his health is the worst on this team outside of Espino like that's just the truth of the matter it's it's the worst Health grade I would give any player outside of Espino and I know we don't really give grades on health but we probably should uh it's just that's a good point no I never thought about that you're right I think think you can give a great on health just go like like um I was trying to explain to a friend the other day about jazz Chism we talked about jazz on our normal Monday episode and he was all in on Jazz and I was like I looked it up if you not not counting this year not counting 2020 because 2020 and I'm not counting his rookie year so if you look at 2023 or 2022 and 2023 he played in less of less than 50% of games um that he could have played in so like that's that's a below average rating for for health and deer I don't think delauer is an option until he plays over 100 games he's never played 100 games of baseball in his life the most he's ever played was like over 70 and that was in between college and um the cape so like I think he's got to play 100 games first I just do I think you need to see him get their whole season healthy or at least the majority of it before you call him up yeah I think there's just been health is such a concern and it just it pushes him down so much for me so he's seven I mean the ceiling is fantastic and he was great all spring and then he actually had like he was having a bad year uh to start the year before the injury he was not uh performing at a super high level so uh all the traits are there for him to be special I could look very silly in a year and then I have dowy as my first um pitcher at eight he's currently my number one pitcher in the system I know he's mine too and it's just again it's because of of espino's Health yeah it's because cantillo can't throw strikes um and then there's just nobody else that like nobody nobody I don't even think Alex's Clum there's nobody in the system that matches from a pitcher standpoint what Espino can do and his health is you know third 20 grade too and I wonder if Peterson had gotten a proper push I mean they mve that guy so dang slowly that maybe he'd be higher but it's like Peterson's my third arm he's my first college arm the rest my my first two pitchers on my board are my my list are dowy and Oki I have Oki above Peterson because I I mean the floor with Peterson's fine and I I think I I think I told this to you did I say this on the on the regular episode or off the air and I said I think there's like a little bit of Charles n not quite Cliff Lee but like a poor man's Cliff Le to Peterson's game but I need to see it at Triple A and I know I know we haven't seen dowy or Oki at all but that's how Prospect rankings work sometimes you're kind of banking on upside for the future um I used to get bothered by how much pipeline would would rank um ceiling the new draft the new draft picks no like you would always see like these guys who have performed or haven't performed and they would put the draft picks ahead of them and I'm like well these guys haven't done anything why are you ranking the draft packs ahead of them and it's because you're doing it based on potential they haven't failed yet um when they fail they'll adjust if they do or they don't but like the year they put Tanner Burns really high and I was like okay like that's interesting um and then obviously they adjusted after that but like you know when you're doing these lists you're kind of balancing Health floor ceiling risk and the the ceilings of dowy and Oki are so big the risks are also huge Peterson's floor is probably decent I don't know that it's so decent that I could say um I don't I don't know if it's safe enough you know what I mean like I think the floor for Peterson's good but the the potential for him to reach his floor I think isn't quite enough where I could say I'm projecting him higher like I at one time I had Eric hos really high on my list because I thought I thought very very very strongly that hos could be an average Major maybe a fringe average Major League starter or maybe a good backup which he was I thought I thought it was safe enough for me to project his value and I'm saying I'm not there with Peterson yet but dowy and Oki are just you know Central skyh High yeah I I have the same three I'm sure everyone is shocked um so just you know I guess I guess you didn't completely F your top 10 so I W before the first break but just uh I'll come back and talk about like why I have Oki one spot ahead of Peterson and my doubt he's ahead of both of them um when we come back from the other side of this break sounds good lots more Prospect talk on a bonus episode hope you guys are enjoying but first let's talk about the good people at Stitch Fix You Know listen this is a shirt my daughter made and I love it to death but would would I love to look better absolutely this is not exactly High fashion statement but it means a lot to me I wouldn't trade it for anything but there are times where you want to look good you want to look your best put on your best and that's what Stitch fix is going to do for you you get a stylist who understands your style size and budget and they do the shopping for you and they're going to send you a box like I said my wife uses and loves this service like we get Stitch fix boxes all the time you you know they're going to send you five pieces typically a month I believe and they're going to give you advice and they're going to help you this is the easiest way to get a new wardrobe if you're needing to get a new professional wardrobe send things back and it's it's almost like it's it's people can learn just like AI 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got dowy dowy is my so dowy has a bit of a gap between him and the next group he's at eight and Oki is what 11 and dowy is for me he's got a better pitch mix overall he's a better athlete oki's a fine athlete but Dy D's a solid athlete um I think he's got some higher spin rates and he's got more developed starters mix uh that's why he's a bit higher oki's right now A two- pitch guy they're both potentially plus pitches um he has the bonus of you know he follows me on Twitter and doubt he doesn't so maybe I should flip him this for that that's how we're going to do things from now on that's that's just how it's gonna be I'm gonna be like that uh that Cleveland guy who who who makes his list based on that but no um instead you know oki's a two- pitch guy great athlete his stuff backed up a little he got really overused by his high school coach which was not ideal but he's got a really high floor you know my buddy Taylor Blake Ward was always like he just Troy peral was who he kept seeing so maybe he ends up being a a reliever I think he's got a chance to be a two3 type I think dowy is is is a two3 type as well Peterson like he's got monster extension he has dominated every level I was I love when people are like welcome to the bandwagon I'm like I liked him out of Yukon like I don't go back to his Purdue days but like when he got drafted I was jumping up and down like this was a guy I liked a Yukon who performed very well at that conference level and I was always like why are they moving him so slowly and then now it's like no all of you are joining me on this bandw uh I think it's a really safe profile I think the more advanced data we get on him the better it looks and you know I know people keep saying Shane Bieber like that's just an unfair comp I get it like Shane Bieber only walked like eight guys one year in the minors as well um you know who else did that Thomas echelman and if you don't know who Thomas echelman is see like that's that's the other side of it but I like Peters Peterson's got better stuff echelman was smaller did not have anywhere near the extension so I think he has a very good chance to be like a potentially somewhere between three to a five you can see the difference where he's probably more of a four the other guys have legit a number two ceiling uh I'm going to take the lead and then kick it back to you after this let's just finish top 10 we've kind of tipped around so Oki is 11 and Peterson is 12 for me so you're like okay who's nine and 10 um kayus right now is nine just his performance has been spectacular this year my one caveat is with the way things have gone he really hasn't faced teams multiple times and that's a big deal because teams and players adapt and I've seen guys like it's the West head Hodges core Larry if you're not into this long enough to know Wes Hodges who was I think a draft eligible sophomore out of Georgia Tech who back in the days when this was the worst minor league system of baseball people can played now you have no idea what it was like back then when I started covering in like OD six and OD seven I remember those days it's bad they were it was ugly and and hajes had fantastic he moved quickly through the miners and had fantastic half Seasons um and got people very excited and the never made it to the big leagues and I've seen that happen with a few guys so in some respects it's great when a guy moves quickly but you also kind of need to see a guy stabilized at a level so you see what happens when teams and players face that guy multiple times do they figure things out you know that that's something we haven't seen with KFC at so he's what everything he's done has been fantastic if he can keep it up great um and then Angel janal was another guy that uh you know bounc back he was not great a year ago um we're all kind of waiting on it and this year he is just murdering baseballs like he of of any middle infielder in the system it's it's you know Jan bazan and Moy probably are the three that have the best power profile amongst infielders um middle infielders up to Middle types um but yeah he's got a lot of power he's really emerging this year I think he's um probably one of their better trade assets Mooney or Hana hanau yeah I I agree with you on Hana and we have we almost have the same top 10 where where did you have burrito where's burrito for you uh burrito is four okay I have him three what what's your top three uh bazan manzardo Val Ralphie okay so we only flipped on burrito and Ralphie um I should Ral no because I have cherio at at uh five Martinez six still seven five yeah we're I know yeah we're a little bit off in the top 10 there yeah and Jeff and I haven't seen each other's list we're just talking this through um I probably should move Ralphie up a little bit because I got um if you listen to Guardians of the future which I I record an episode that's dropped dropped on Monday go listen to that with the hillcats broadcaster Jason pill talked a lot about some good stuff on on Ralphie and how impressed Scouts were with him at the um the Futures game and um just everyone's impressed with him overall and I think there's again if there's one guy on my list that I don't want to trade I think it's possibly him I mean obviously bazan but um Velasquez is on that on that list for me uh and then Han thing's really interesting my my issue is with hanau is here's the cavia I have I have him number 10 a lot of people are higher on him I have some I have some swing decision questions there because he's an aggressive hitter um and Cleveland just has a lot he he just he just falls into these types that we've had so far uh in the system that really scare me so I shouldn't let a another Prospect completely prospect on his own sway I shouldn't let somebody else sway what I think about another Prospect which is why I'm sure people are like wow you guys haven't said a word about Wellman Francisco and I'll talk about that in a second but like it's an aggressive profile and how many times have we seen this Jeff guys are aggressive people are like well sometimes aggressive is good it it's a very rare profile to work out like again Salvador Perez jav bayas who's terrible right now I know he had a home run against the Guardians last week but jav bayas aged poorly he made that work for several years not a lot guys can make it work but I will say this Hana plus speed absolutely plus speed um it's it's Gap power and he's got more than enough arm to play short stop I think he probably probably is a better Defender at third than he is short um longterm second base could work for him too but it'd be a waste because he's got a great arm um I just worry about if he's gonna be patient enough to hit at the next level like you need some level of patience to reach your your full offensive potential otherwise you turn into an Oscar Gonzalez type some people are probably going to wonder you guys haven't said a word about wellin Francisco and we talked about our top 10 I have dowy eight I have Oki 11 I have cus above Han now um and people people think that we're low on cus I don't think we're low on cus at all I think I think we're high on cus because truthfully he hasn't proved it long term yet the the things he is doing well is he's hit hitting the ball in the air do his pull side that's great he does not have like Elite level exit velocity so he is a guy to maximize his power profile at first base asked to get the ball in the air and then hit it over the fence or hit it uh to pull side to maximize his power he I don't know that he can really play the Outfield like he probably can but it's not going to be like a a really carrying tool for him his carrying tool is is going to be the hip tool it is that's he's going to have to make contact he's going to have to pull the ball in the air um and he's going to have to take walks the walks have gone down a little bit double a the strike Cuts have gone up a little bit I've seen him have issues with curveballs low I I think considering those issues and considering he is a first base only mostly for the most Park guy I think we're high on him having him the top 10 I I think other places are lower on him than we are I I have to say so I think us having him in the top 10 says we're high on him people think we're low on him but I don't and here the we and Francis thing too we got to get a second break in here but yeah the Alman Francisco thing he hit great in the ACL that's awesome ACL data is worthless ACL stats are worthless um and he's again this and I I said this before about letting other people's failures or success dictate what I think of other players but I've seen players with the same profile as we're hearing about with well Francisco fail they're I the same things very similar to rokio right yes that's what I was going to say it's very similar to rokio it's similar to Aaron brocho it's similar to George Valera in some ways we heard this same profile over and over and I know wellin Francisco is his own player people are high on him but I I can't take I can't take complex level stats seriously I haven't seen him enough in person um I think we're gonna see him in in Lynchberg very soon yeah but Prof I have them 17 so we're close I just again I'm I'm used other people's failures against him it's not fair but I just have seen this profile too many times and I have to I need to see it actually work out before I I can really believe it that's why we're we're lower on Francisco than most also again ACL success to me doesn't mean Squad a whole lot yeah uh a lot of more fun stuff in the top 20 I want to talk I want to talk Jeff about the catchers I want to talk about how you feel about um Cooper Engle specifically all two of them I did I did the top 50 so I've actually got three catchers in my top 50 um I'm sure you can guess who that is but I want to talk about those two speci so that's what work Logan Clark yes I did I did 50 rank 50 prospects just for his age as a prospect hope he's not listening to this uh yeah seem like a great kid it just he's not had opportunities this year which is typically not a good sign for a player future yeah and there's not a lot of catching going on at Lynchburg either so which means you're going to see some college catchers at Lynch that's going to be fun we're going to talk about one of them in a second I hope the Guardians are Master Traders you know who's Master Traders supply house customers are Master Traders you can get supplies from the site that is made for skill Traders Supply house.com is the reliable way to order Plumbing HVAC electrical products online they have an easyd website that is packed with helpful resources the latest product info to help you get the job done right look their scouting reports are great shop a complete inventory of over 200,000 Parts over 400 top brands get your order delivered right to your door with fast shipping Coast to Coast if you need help with an order you can get expert support from industry leading service from the friendliest folks in the business and talk to a real person every time Pros in the skilled trades can get a Competitive Edge by joining Supply us.com free trademaster program every trademaster gets access to a dedicated phone line free shipping and a discount on every order hopefully the Gardians get some discount trades join the thousands of trade Pros already benefiting from their free memberships at supplyhouse.com sltm and Order hbac plumbing and electrical supplies from anywhere with just a few clicks at supplyhouse.com check out the Guardians on your Serius XM M during the Detroit series uh Tuesday is a day game Monday's a night game so check the times there weird off day Wednesday after the trade deadline that'll be interesting to see all right uh really quickly I should say this too I have I have cantillo 13 I have Walters 14 I struggled with them a little bit here's the thing with Walters the good and bad with him I know we so we talk catchers the good thing and with Walters and the bad thing with Walters is he's struggling uh he had like a I want to say eight or nine game stretch where he he was scoreless which was great so I thought he was turn in the corner then he had a terrible outing on Saturday for Columbus um Cleveland does like to see their prospects hit adversity before they call him up Cleveland almost never wants to call a guy up that has not hit a bump in the the road in the minors at any point and not just injuries so like someone might say well deer's hit a bump on the road he's said he's been hurt but he hasn't struggled Cleveland likes their prospects to struggle because they want to see how they come on the other side of those they want to see them make the adjustments because you're gonna fail a lot in the majors you just are especially hitters not so much pitchers but I think it is at least worth noting that Walters is struggling in the minors and I I don't think it precludes him from coming up this year unless drif trades him to Texas for Josh Smith which goes another episode I uh I have him at 22 he's one of my big guys who dropped um if you're a relever I I don't love putting you in the top 15 unless I think you're really really special and he does have that ceiling but with some of the struggles this year it just kind of made it easier to move him down with a few other guys moving up um you know so if I'm looking at my list we I talked about you know having Peterson at 12 I have Canelo at 13 uh and Espino for me is at 15 I have to keep him in the top 15 just because the ceiling there and then I have almost all pitchers outside of I mentioned wellin at 19 um it's all pitchers and then I have Kart at 14 So speaking of catchers yeah so I kind of I don't want to say I cheated here but I had a heart I have Mooney above that too and I have messic in that group I have aino 18 so here's the thing about kard and Engle we had Engle on the show so obviously we love Engel um Kart has more defensive upside he's a more physical catcher he's got a bigger arm power yeah there's power in the profile I think Engle has better I think I think Kar has better physical defensive tools which I think is going to allow him to be I want to say he might have a higher floor I hate to I hate to be unfair to Cooper but I think I think Kar might have a higher floor because of the defense um I like Cooper a lot the pitchers like pitchers like him yeah but here's the other thing I I weighed yeah here's the other thing I weighed for for Cooper though Cooper's arm is is average I think it's okay um Kar is probably better I think Engle does some other things better like framing um some blocking I know both these guys get on the mental side which is super important the the up and down with Engle is it's all contact it's not a lot of power he is getting to more pull side power but he doesn't hit he hits more ground balls than fly balls so like while he does tap into his power by hitting pulls side fly balls he's still hitting the ball on the ground a lot more than he's hitting in the air so that's going to limit him a little bit he doesn't have Kart's power and I don't like projecting guys that are very hit tool base as we just had that conversation about welln Francisco but the reason I like Engel too is that I think Engel there's a chance that he could be like you know he played Outfield in college right so like he could catch and also just other things so that makes his profile also a little more valuable so it's like I had a really hard time how how I wanted to rank those two so I ended up ranking Engle at 20 because he's already hitting I just worry about I had Kar right behind him at 21 which feels like cheating a little bit because I just worry that Kart's not GNA hit make enough contact at the next level but when he does he can be powerful and um he is has the the better defensive floor yeah I got I Engle 21 and Kart 14 because Kart is a very good chance to be at least a platoon catcher um with power and hit to I I I don't know if he's gonna be ever a full-time I think there's a better chance that Eng Les in you know 130 a g year I don't even know if catchers catch that manymore but 120 uh games a year catcher where I think kosart is a has a higher chance of success and but it be more of like a you know 90 game guy more of a platoon role he's got a better P he's got better power engle's got the hit tool better athleticism I think Kart is probably as equal with framing definitely has a stronger arm um he does basically everything you need to behind the plate so that's why I have a seven spot jump um you know you mentioned messic messic is the third of my acronyms um I have him down at 23 uh just to give you at 16 I have Webb 17 Clemy 18 is Mooney so I did I just missed him in there 19 wbin and then 20 is is moy with Engle at 21 Walters 22 mess at 23 I know there's people screaming where's the tugboat he's 24 for me I have Tugboat at 26 so we're close I i' like Brian web as much as you do I really struggled here I probably should have put him a lot higher I don't know why I dropped him so low because I think the reason I dropped him I have 27 I was much higher on Webb coming into the year I was waiting for a little more consistency and I I think the fast ball is super fringy I have a hard time believing his fastball is going to be good enough at the next level I like the curve and the change I just I need more control from a guy that has a fast ball that's kind of middling that's my concern here and I don't I think the upside is more five six starter esque which is closer to what Tugboat is so this is where I got more aggressive with upside I I moved I had John kenen will coming there at 24 he's now 22 for me I have valer at 23 because I think there's a chance he could be a platoon bat that walks and hits home runs that's valuable and I had CLE Watson at 24 and Chase Mooby 25 um because Watson still got a moon full of potential I can't pass that up and then Moy is the third of the high school arms I like the most um I had Branan 28 just for context and I had Rafel Maris 29 um I wanted to put delua and schinger and Campbell a little or Soul a little higher uh but they're all in the back end of my top 20 SL early 30s so just I I guess at this point since I said t about 24 Branan 25 no 26 solivan 27 Watson 28 valair 29 and Franco alaman 30 um I dropped really far I still believe in the arm it's a hiccup like I'm not I listen Jano and Martinez ability but it's but he didn't have the issue before this year so again Jano and Martinez also know he struggles to pitch back toback days I know and and Naylor all are guys who kind of told me like have taught me the lesson of like don't don't drop too much due to one down that's fair so you know that's that's where I'm kind of going there um you know I the next grouping I've got kind of just guys thr together like NY and tana and um you know some of the names you mentioned uh I also like guy linsicum he's not really in this range but still think he's kind of a fun guy down the board uh so with this grouping I just got to say again with tugbo he's probably a backend starter like he's been fantastic and again you know I think he's a guy that uh as he continues to get in shape could be uh fantastic uh yeah yeah but um and the reason I I don't know Webb just continues to miss bats pretty consistently and I still believe in his ability to miss bats messic I don't know if there's anything plus there it's like everything about that dude is a 50 which prob in control yeah but it's like is is is any of that a 60 is it just a 55 like I just don't know if there's a the changer could be 55 the changer could be 55 I think I just don't see a lot of like I'm always looking for a 60 trait or multiple 60 traits and he's the one where I'm not sure if there's even one 160 trait um but I think he's I think he's a really solid potential five but I just I worry about beyond that agreed all right we got through kind of our top 30 hope you enjoyed that bantering there's a lot more we could have talked about I didn't get to talk about razinger I didn't get to talk about will Dion or Doug NY or Aiden major who's my number 43 Prospect I actually really like Aiden major uh Garrett I'm sorry draft Yeah I actually came I came around on him maybe we'll explain that another time benett Thompson 46 for me um I ask my catcher in the top 50 hope you guys enjoyed this episode and uh check us out on Tuesday for our normal episode and then hopefully that'll include some Guardians trades because that'll be after the trade deadline we'll see yep so this gives you if you're a fan of the Guardians hey hope you enjoyed it if you're a fan of another team hey I hope you learned something about your newest Prospect uh thank you again for joining us reading and reviewing downloading it helps thank you to all of our every dayers like John and David who are always super kind and and zeve and go go Guardians go