MLB Player Props Today 9/3/2024 | FREE MLB Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props

hello ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the channel happy Tuesday everybody I hope your day and your week are going well so far got a new day which of course means a new MLB player PR video to share with you guys but first as always people please make sure to hit the Subscribe button hit that like button and drop a comment down below it helps the channel grow and it really does mean a ton to us with a new day comes new opportunity to win some more money and I've got six picks to go ahead and share with you guys for today's MLB SL but first before dive into today's picks a quick little recap of how we did last night and if the thumbnail didn't give it away guys we had a fantastic night last night a 4 in1 performance on the video yesterday including a massive hit with that Ian half over one and a half total Bas that was a plus 175 hit for the boy but yeah 4 in one day the only prop that didn't hit was that O'Neal Cruz over one and a half hits runs RBI but a really solid day across the board for us here that's the kind of day that we needed here The Vibes are high we're feeling good going to today's video after a big night last night by way thank you to everybody who comment the yesterday prayers from my grandmother I know I did obviously put a contest forward but I could tell it was genuine from a lot of people um you know I really do appreciate it my family saw all the comments they were emotional seeing it all seeing all the support so very big thanks to everybody who commented yesterday and sending their prayers and thoughts uh from my grandmother really do appreciate that from the bottom of my heart and as promised I was going to pick one lucky comment to win a free $10 Amazon gift card shout out to Johnny XOXO 4330 uh we're going to get in contact with you get you a free $10 Amazon gift card as a part of yesterday's giveaway so thank you very much guys for commenting six picks coming right at you let's Dive Right In jumping right into the outlier screen shout out to outlow the best sports betting tool on the market we do have a special offer down below a 7-Day free trial to check it out for yourself outli is a sponsor of today's video but even if they weren't a sponsor guys they're the best sports betting tool if you want to make money with sports betting you got to have the right tool it genuinely makes you a better Sports better I mean I can tell you this EV can tell you this I mean we use it all the time for our videos if you watch his videos my videos we use it all the time it truly has made us better Sports betters just like it can make you better Sports betters and the best part is after you finish your 7-Day free trial it's not like it's that expensive it's like 20 bucks a month and listen if you're winning money off of this it should pay for itself realistically so uh really solid uh uh tool here but again you get to try for seven days free uh for your first seven days so go ahead and check that out with the link Down Below in the description thank special thank you to outlier for sponsoring today's video all right guys the first of six props in today's slate we have rocky Braves 7 20 p.m first pitch we're going Michael Harris the second over half a strike out here available on DraftKings forus 135 and bmgm forus 135 see the DAT is pretty solid here eight of his last 10 games he has cashed the over he actually had cashed it in eight consecutive games prior to uh September 1st versus the Phillies where he did not strike out and an extra innings loss for the Braves but again you see here that eight of his last 10 games 80% hit with an average of 1.2 strikeouts per game average even if you go ahead and startch the DAT out to the last 20 games you see an 80% hit rate still 16 of his last 20 games he's cast the over the average of 1.25 strikeouts per game so pretty good numbers there across the board for Michael Harris but even if we go ahead and look at the last or excuse me the whole season view right still really good numbers 68% hit rate 58 out of 85 games played this year for the Braves Michael Harris II has cashed the over he's averaging .96 strikeouts per game of the season really solid average there for us the only piece of the data that's not fantastic is the head-to-head daddy you do see just two of the last seven matchups versus the Rockies he's cashed the over he's played them three times so far excuse me no times this year apologies for that no times this year uh but two of the last seven matchups all these match ups taking place last season uh he failed to cash the over but head-to-head data aside the data looks really and it's all from last season so uh but the data this year looks absolutely fantastic for Michael Harris the insights provided by outlier Michael Harris the second has exceeded half a strikeout in eight of his last nine games a 1.3 strikeout per game average over the night that nine game span again I I just basically showed you guys that but just to reiterate thanks to the insights provided by outlier now looking at the match up versus Kyle Freeland uh not the best head-to-head Dad see seven played appearances since uh 2018 a 14.3% strikeout rate versus fre only strike out once in seven plate appearances but seven plate appearances is a very small sample size but the number I want you guys to focus on here is the strikeout percentage you see Michael Harris this year 24.8% strikeout percentage versus left-handed pitch which is actually an increase from his 23.2% Mark overall so slightly higher versus left-handed pitchers and his walk percentage takes a pretty significant decrease to just 2.6% so that's really good then looking at Kyle Freeland strikeout percentage it is 18.1 overall which is okay but versus Lan batters you do see an increase to 21.2 now it is a smaller sample size only 52 batters face this year they were left-handed but a higher strikeout rate 21.2 so that 21.2 versus the 24.8 those two high strikeout numbers that's why I'm running with this prop I tell you guys all the time if you have both over 20% for the strikeout rate it's a pretty good prop and forus 135 odds for a guy who's hitting this at a 68% hit rate this year I think that's pretty solid value all right guys and for our second pick of today's SL we're actually sticking with the same game here Rockies Braves we're going Matt Olsen over one and a half hits runs RB for the Atlanta Braves again we're getting this on DraftKings and B MGM both for minus 135 odds just like the last prop and again like the last prop the last 10 game data pretty solid eight of his last 10 games he's cashed the over an average of 8 an average of 3.7 excuse me hits runs RBI per game an 80% hit rate over his last 10 games if we go ahead and search the DAT out to the last 20 games it's still decent not as good uh 12 of his last 20 games he's cash the over an average of 2.6 hits runs RBI per game and a 60% hit rate over his last 20 games and then looking at the at the 2024 data overall again not great but not the worst we've seen uh 48% hit rate this year 66 out of 137 games this season Matt Olson has cashed the over with an average of 1.93 hits runs are RBI per game so the average is where we want it to be although the overall trend is not exactly where we want it to be looking at the head-to-head data here it's really solid you see seven of his last 10 meetings with the Rockies he has cashed the over it's a 70% hit rate and average to 3.5 hits runs RBI per game the last couple games he's had some really big successes versus the Rockies including on August 10th of this year he had a 10 hit run RBI performance and what was 118 win for the Braves he had two hits two runs and six RB versus the Rockies there so pretty solid head-to-head data pretty solid data overall for the most part looking down below again the insights provided by outlier Matt Olsson has exceeded one and a half hits runs RBI in eight of his last nine games an average of 4.1 hits runs rbi's per game over the last nine games a really good Mark there looking at the head-to-head data now and it's decent not the best data we've ever seen not the best numbers we've ever seen but it's decent Matt Olson versus Kyle Freeland dating back to 2018 17 play appearances just a 200 batting average off them which again I like that' be a little bit higher but it's terrible looking at the numbers this year though Matt olon batting 234 overall however versus left-handed pitchers you do see an increase of 268 so that does uh Bode very well in our uh favor there and Kyle Freeland 555 551 excuse me RA overall this season uh 294 batting average allowed this really high obviously Now versus left-handed batters like Matt Olson you do see the batting average just decreased there to 261 but 261 is still a pretty decently High batting average so although it is a decrease we'd like it to be at that 294 number uh even at the 261 number it's not bad and looking at the erra you do see a nice increase there to six and again the smaller sample size he's only face off against 52 batters that were left-handed this year um we do obviously know from the last prop the strikeout rate's definitely higher uh but just 11.8 strikeout percentage versus Freeland since 2018 that's 17 plate appearances which is a pretty decent sample size so yeah the data isn't as fantastic on this prop as it was the last one but still really solid really solid data overall and for minus 135 again I really think it's really solid value there guys we are hitting the 8 Minute Mark in today's video so if you're watching at this point Thank you thank you for watching all the way through and watching through the video go ahead and comment eight Down Below in the comments if you are still watching the video at this point I really do appreciate it all right guys moving on our third prop of today's slate we're going on to the Guardians Royals game 7:40 p.m. first pitch we're going Tommy fam of the Royals under one and a half hits runs RBI we have our first plus money play of the day that's available on DraftKings and B MGM both for plus 100 odds and for a plus money play the DAT is pretty solid eight of his last 10 games Tommy fam has cashed this under an average of 6 hits runs RBI per game over the last 10 games even if you go s the that out to the last 20 games still really solid 16 of his last 20 games he's cashed the under an average of 08 hits runs RBI per game and an 80% hit rate and you look at so far in 2024 53% hit rate for Tommy fam on this under you see 50 out of 95 games this year he's cast the under averaging 1.67 hey hits runs RBI per game you see he was red hot to start the year off he has definitely cooled off since then uh obviously these were also when he was with the white sock he's now obviously uh with the Royals now um but you do see he was really red hot to start the year off with Chicago and then since being traded to the Royals he has fallen off a little bit and the head-to-head dad is pretty solid as well six of his last nine meetings nice with the Cleveland Guardians um he has cashed the under 67% hit rate an average of 1.22 hits runs RB's per game versus the Guardians over that nine game span so like I said guys data looks pretty good so far the insights provided by outlier again this is kind of just reiterating some of the things I said but it's good to look at one more time uh Tommy fam has failed to exceed one and a half hits runs RB's in seven of his last eight games an average was just 04 hits runs RB per game average over the last eight games and now looking at the matchup stats you could see why maybe this is a plus money play Tommy fam is batting 253 overall this season but versus right-handed pitchers you do see an increase so it's even higher at 2 59 not a massive increase but an increase nonetheless to a 259 batting average versus right-handed pitcher that doesn't fa very well for us there but not to worry because I think the pitching match up here saves it for us Tanner BBY this year has been fantastic 365 e overall uh 235 batting average allowed some pretty good numbers overall it gets even better though versus right-handed pitchers and we do have a right-handed batter excuse me and we do have a pretty large sample size as well he's faced 253 batters that were right-handed this season 30 three so a pretty nice dip from his overall 365 Mark and his batting average allowed just 185 versus right-handed batter that's actually a pretty impressive Mark there for Tanner BBY and you see his home runs per nine drop his Oba drop so across the board you see green really solid data there in the pitching matchup and Cleveland's Bullpen also pretty solid as well so overall really solid Marks here for the dad is overall good I think the matchups good the only thing that can give you a little bit of worry here is the fact that fam is batting 259 off of right-handed pitchers this season but like I said the recent data 16 of his last 20 games he's cast the under so I really do like to spy here for plus money great great value on this prop all right guys for the fourth prop of today's slate we're moving on to the Mariners Athletics game 9:40 p.m. first pitch we have another plus money play in our hands here with JP Crawford of the Mariners under one and a half hits runs RBI the same prop we're getting for plus 105 on bmgm and plus 100 on DraftKings once again guys the data is fantastic on this prop each of his last nine games he has cashed the under and a just 8 hits runs RBI per game over his last 10 games the last time he cashed this over we got to go back to July 14th he had one hit one run in One RBI and was a 3-2 loss to the angels so it's been over a month close to two months since the last time he's cashed this over even when you go ahead and stretch that data out to the last 20 games 16 of the last 20 games he's cashed the under an 80% hit rate literally the same marks that you saw with the last prop so really good numbers here for JP Crawford here 1.45 hits runs RBI he had a couple big games there that kind of skewed the average Aver but overall a lot of cashes on this under lately and in 2024 so far a 57% hit rate on this under 47 out of 82 games this year he has cashed the under an average of 1.67 hits runs RB per game now the head-to-head dat is not fantastic you see eight of his last 17 games versus the Oakland ay's cash the under just a 47% hit rate and he's averaging 2.24 hits runs RBI per game but each of his last three matchups versus the Oakland A's all which take place this season he has cash the under including when they played last night he had one run no hits no RBI and what was a 5-4 win for Oakland he's faced off with the A's four times this year he's cashed the under in three out of four games at a 75% hit rate so although overall the recent data is not fantastic this year's data pretty solid again the insights provided by outlier JP Crawford has failed to exceed one and a half hits runs RBI in nine straight games and averages point6 hits runs RB per game although we don't have a ton of pitching data to go off of here we do have JP Crawford's numbers he's batting 195 overall this year which spoiler alert is not very good and versus right-handed pitchers spoiler alert again it's even worse 162 batting average off of right-handed pitchers this season so really bad numbers there for JP Crawford uh we're going up against a pitcher here in Gin for the Oakland A's he's only pitched a total of eight and a half Innings this season with a 5.1 on ra so not fantastic numbers for him but we're more or less betting on the JP Crawford side of this thing less about the pitching match up more about the fact that Crawford is struggling to hit the ball in general this year I know it's an inexperienced pitcher you would think I think this is kind of the match up where he could get a hit where he could put up some numbers I am still betting with the fact that he's batting 162 off a right-handed pitcher that's all right-handed pitch experienced non-experienced young old he's struggling off righties this year and I think that's probably going to go ahead and continue tonight the data shows it for plus 105 or plus 100 depending where you're betting it again really solid value and sticking with this game and sticking with the hot Trends we're going with Lawrence Butler of the Oakland A's over one and a half hits runs rbi's it's available on prize picksus 119 DraftKings minus 125 and B MGM for minus 125 uh Butler Cashes in 10 consecutive games I've been watching this prop pretty closely the last couple weeks and a couple times I thought about putting on and I haven't and I kicked myself in the ass for not betting this more often he's cashing now in 10 consecutive games for the Oakland A's averaging 4.2 hits runs RB over his last 10 games even looking at his last 20 games a 75% hit rate 15 of his last 20 games he's cashed the over with an average of three hits runs RBS I actually think it's like 12 straight games in a row he's cashed the over so really good marks there for Lawrence Butler of late even though the overall season D is not fantastic you see in 2024 just a 45% hit rate on this over an average of 1.97 hits runs RBI per game you do see here uh basically from July on he had a little bit of a cold streak there in the beginning of August through the middle of August but he's gotten hot again as we get into to September here but the last couple months he's been pretty good for Oakland and yeah the head-to-head D is not fantastic but they did play last night he did cash the over last night one run one hit no RBI on that 5-4 win for Oakland budget a 33% hit rate versus the Mariners dating back to last season looking down below the insights provided by outl like I said Lawrence Butler has exceeded one and a half hits runs rbi's in 12 straight games that's I can't even I don't have enough fingers to count that that's TW 10 two 12 straight games an average of four that's four hits runs RB per game average over the last 12 games uh now looking at the matchup down below here very small sample size versus Louis Castillo only two play appearances of 2018 he has struck out one of the two no hits but again only two plate appearances very small uh sample size now you do see that the butler's numbers do drop he's batting 265 overall this year that does drop to 260 versus right-handed pitches which is a little concerning there but Castillo overall this year 365 ra 238 batting aage allow versus lefties gets a lot worse 491 ra a whopping 280 batting average L he is significantly worse versus left-handed batters and there a large sample size this isn't a small sample size 329 batters fac that were left-handed struggling absolutely struggling 491 ra 280 batting average allowed two home runs per nine innings 362 Oba so although you do see kind of Catch My Breath there although uh Lawrence Butler you do see a slight decrease in his numbers 260 batting average overall is still pretty solid especially when you compare that when you match that I should say uh with Castillo's numbers it's a really solid matchup he's cashed it in 12 straight games we're going to go ahead and keep riding the hot hand here and riding with Lawrence Butler here on the over all right guys in our sixth and final prop of today's slate we're moving on to the Dodgers Angels game 9:38 p.m. first pitch we're going showy Otani over one and a half total bases available on pretty much every sports book but it looks like Caesar's minus 106 DraftKings minus 110 is probably your best bet although also available on Underdog and on FanDuel and again guys data solid on this one seven of his last 10 games he has cash the over it's a 70% hit rate with an average of 2.9 total bases per game over his last 10 games look at the season total 2024 a 56% hit rate on the over for showy Otani 76 out of 135 games this year he's cash the over again an average of 2.45 total bases per game average and the head-to-head data also really strong as well versus his former team in the LA Angels each of the last two meetings versus The Angels he has cash the over with an average of 4.5 bases per game average versus his former team does shohi hate the Angels does he have any ill will toward the angels I don't think so but you got to have a little extra juice on you when you're playing your former team right I would assume so especially because this game is in Anaheim so it's at the Angels versus the last time they played I believe was in it was in the Dodgers Stadium now you're returning to that Stadium for the first time since leaving it's going to be emotional you're going to be charged up you're going to be Juiced up I do like this spot a lot for show this is more about the matchup in the return to Anaheim his big return versus his former team but the dad is still pretty decent overall the inside show Otani has exceeded one and a half bases in five of his last six games on the road an average of 3.3 bases per game average over that span and yeah the the key master stats are not fantastic here you do see a dip in showas numbers versus left-handed pitchers you see just batting 264 but again 264 is not a bad Mark it's still a pretty solid Mark overall it is a decrease though from his overall 292 batting his extra base H percentage takes a massive drop which is a little concerning here but still 35.3% is still pretty solid and looking at deur of the Angels 810 ra versus left-handed batters now the batting average has dropped 2 42 but that A10 ER is concerning the 500 slugging percentage and the 50% extra base hit percentage all that screams recipe for an extra base hit I'm not going to put on the official record but show to hit a home run in this game feels like a pretty solid prop I'll go ahead and show you the the odds for that and what the payout would be uh again shout out to outlier for this we'll go a look at the home runs home run tonight's plus 270 on B GM plus 265 FanDuel plus 260 on DraftKings you guys are looking for a little you know what we're going to add it to the we're going to add it to the record I'll throw it on there I I feel pretty confident he's going to hit a home run tonight uh I know the matchup isn't necessarily the greatest of all time with again we saw the batting average all and everything but 500 slugging percentage versus lefties and a 50% extra base hit percentage versus lefties in Anaheim is firstand back in Anaheim as a member of the Dodgers a home run for plus 260 or plus 270 depending where you're getting it pretty decent value so we got a lot riding on the show hey PR now we have seven props in today's slate all right guys so those are all seven picks from today's slate quick little recap of all the picks we have Matt Olsson over one and a half hits runs rbi's Michael Harris over half a strikeout Tommy fam under one and a half hits runs RBI sh Otani over one and a half total bases showy Otani over a home half a home run so to hit one home run uh JP Crawford under one and a half hits runs rbi's and Lawrence Butler over one and a half hits runs rbi's guys I will put this link down in the description and the pin comments you guys can easily go ahead and follow along but that does it for me today thank you very much as always for watching guys one more time hit that subscribe button hit that like button and drop a comment down below shout out to outlier one more time for sponsoring today's video again link down below 7-Day free trial to check it out for yourself guys I will be back tomorrow with another MLB player prop video but until then I hope you're all winners have a fantastic Tuesday I'll see you tomorrow hopefully up a lot of units