Can Graham Mertz Handle the Pressure? - Florida vs Miami Preview

all right Dave well I'll Tee It Up This Way and then I'll let you and cam mix it up with the X's and O's if Miami had Florida's schedule and Florida had Miami schedule I think people would look at this game differently and they shouldn't look at this game differently because they're not playing the rest of the season we're not playing November on Saturday we're playing the two squads that will line up on Saturday a narrative is not being played on Saturday about the entire season and their trajectory as programs or the likelihood that the coach won't be there at the end of the season or the chances that they have to compete for conference championships none of that is being played out on Saturday it's about who can man it up the best on Saturday yeah so I guess I guess I'll start here but yeah I mean like when you look at it of course Mario Chris Ball and Billy Napier pretty much almost have the same record I think Mario chrisal has one more win than Billy Napier obviously Billy Napier had to face a very very tough schedule obviously Dan Mullen the coach before him did not recruit that well Billy naier comes in has to kind of clean up a little bit of a mess on top of playing a harder SEC schedule which is understandable but at the same time Florida fans are not patient they want wins and they want wins right away um you you lose you win six games in in the first year you go to a bowl game you get smacked around a lot of people opt out um and everybody's okay with that it's your first year it's you know you're get into your Bump year and then your your Bump year you kind of lose a lot of recruits to Miami and uh you still come out with a pretty decent class 2023 and fans are expecting a little bit more right okay maybe he can get to seven and he can get to eight and then you have the the uh the Arkansas game where you you get the penalty you lo you lose the game by like a probably if you would have not got that penalty that 5 yard penalty probably goes through the arch as you win the AR game a lot of fans say that game shouldn't even been close anyway um then you go into and Missouri a game where you're at a fourth and 17 and you have them on the ropes and it's a top 10 team close to top 10 team and and you let them slide on a fourth and 17 and now you're sitting here with with with five winds you could have had seven possibly eight on the schedule so a lot of Florida fans are saying hey we're we're like right there but the the play calling and and and some of these These miscues are are what costing you these close games so I think now Florida having the best defense last year having defenses ranked in the 120s bringing in a new strength and conditioning coach bringing in Ron Roberts from Auburn who you know flipped their defense around I mean Florida they averaged 28.4 points per game last year probably with a good defense they could average well over 30 uh I think you know Ron Roberts coming in some of the guys we got from the transfer portal I think that there's Hope from what we've heard in camps and what we've heard in practices for some of the inside guys I I know think that this defense is going to be a lot better how much better I think is the key when they come to play Miami into town week one and and and look I said this before everybody's worried okay well what about the offensive line here I'm not really too worried about the offensive line Graham Merz his his numbers under pressure was second in the SEC it was pretty top five I think it was top 10 nationally Under Pressure I think more relies on Florida's defensive line and their ability to get pressure on my Miami's offensive line and I think that's what's going to really decide whether you know Florida wins this game or not I think if MI gets the Run game going and and Florida cannot stop him and then cam cam Ward can go to town I think Florida could lose this game so I think the the game in game one relies more on the defensive line for Florida than the offensive line I'm pretty confident in grah Merz he he played pretty well last year he missed one and a half games could have threw for over 3,000 yards averaged about eight yards per attempt um I'm not too worried about gr M's getting under a lot of duress he's been under duress his whole career we've never ever had a good offensive line of Florida ever since 20 2018 and then you have to go back to maybe 2012 to find a good offensive line from Florida so I think that matchup right there is what's really going to decide the game for game one so let me let me just go back you know because I I I think and I get it you know you're a Florida Gator person and that that's that's really putting lipstick on a pig man that's really uh a generous viewing of the last couple of years I mean like if you go back to 2022 y'all lost to Vanderbilt my guy yeah we had Richardson at quarterback who wasn't I mean quarterback and wasn't the best passer at all I mean everybody could that I mean he got drafted based on his athletic ability not his passing ability is there I mean like put the reasons out there and say whatever I wanted to go to Vanderbilt and ended up not going to and coming to Miami I don't really give a anything you know I don't care the the you know it's go well yeah he wasn't that great or well I don't I don't know what happened you know what I mean but like it just and and then just like last like okay like there were some close games and everything but like you know if there were I mean like look Miami takes a knee against Georgia Tech you have one game or one play here one play there you're talking about a 10- win season which is kind of the same kind of a thing and like I just I I just want to go on record that I get it that that's your squad and everything that's a very very generous retelling of the path here well that was that's a very generous schedule you guys have had in the ACCC too but I'm not disputing that I'm not disputing that but see but the the difference is I'm not saying that I'm not saying the're counterfactual I'm not saying that it wasn't and like d and and everything so like that that's where I come from with it I'm interested to see why like so the things that I took away from your opening thing and I'm just going to start with the offense for the Florida game offense if you have not had a good offensive line since 2018 as you put it and I do think that Miami has a top five Cadre of defensive linemen that probably goes 101 deep including six transfers that are adding into this group and Ruben Bane and Jason Taylor Hall of Famer coaching them up and we've seen the development of multiple players along this group how how are you not the least bit concerned about that part of the the ball or or part of the part of the game because that's that's what I heard maybe I heard something different but I'm just well I don't understand how those two things work how you've never had a good offensive line Miami has a stack defensive line group and that's not a thing that gives you any pause well I I already told you I had confidence in grah Mer's under pressure and I and obviously we don't know how the offense line going to perform this year I mean you've got a returning Jake Slaughter you also have a returning Austin Barber who had really good accolades before the season you got najia Harris Damen George who's moved now to Right Guard from right tackle he wasn't a tackle at all and now I guess they just released the dep charts of Cam weights that uh Billy Napier brought over from Louis Lafayette is gonna be starting on that right side too so there is a little bit of question marks when it comes to the offensive line but I think when you put sack three of the offensive line especially on the left side from the center I think you feel pretty confident I think on the right side is where you have a little bit of question marks in Florida I mean look if if your offensive Line's getting dominated over there on that right side you have all the speed in the world from the wide receivers to dunk one off into the flags and have them go up the field and I think that is the ultimate plan to counteract any kind of pressure and again as I said Grant merge numbers under pressure you can look it up on any site has been phenomenal and I'm I'm very confident if grah MERS gets pressured this game he will be able to pull it off okay cool um um how much are we going to see DJ lagway uh I think maybe you might see five to six maybe seven snaps with DJ lagway I think if you're trying if you're struggling in the Run game I think putting in lagway adds a different Dynamic to the Run game but uh I I don't know if there would be any scenario where DJ lagway plays a lot of snaps in this game unless something was to happen to gra MDS or if he got hurt had to come out of the game for a second um then you're relying on a true it's a festar caliber quarterback um so I would assume maybe if gram Merz is you probably have about six seven snaps with him maybe maybe eight if if that is that in your mind is that wise or because to me he's the player on in your program that gives me pause that like makes me say well hold on this kid is different this kid is special this kid is dangerous I know he's a true freshman and was 18 uh years old and everything but like as I'm looking there like I think raham WS is fine you know but like I think DJ lagu is special so I I say that to say do you think that only playing him that number of snap projecting that he'll only play you know five eight snaps is the smart move for this game um yeah I mean it just depends on the scenario like I said if you're not getting a good run game going or if you maybe want to throw in a trick Run play In The End Zone Maybe or something like that you could do a gimmick play with him or anything that you've practiced but I I would expect him to play in the game somewhat but as I said I do not expect him to play most of the game unless you have a very very struggling quarterback or he gets hurt I wouldn't expect him to throw lagway out there just as a true freshman now if we're talking sophomore Jr okay that's different but right now true freshman entered into the program but there is I mean the skill level is High the Talent level is high there but he's proven nothing in the college world yet so uh it depends depends on how confident Billy Napier and the staff are what they've seen in practice maybe you see a little bit more snaps from him but I'm contemplating maybe six to seven maybe to eight snaps you might see more though okay um you talked about the defense and everything so I know I mean like you're the University of Florida or the University of Miami there are athletes everywhere who are a couple of guys on defense that we should be on the lookout for to potentially um you know make some positive game play gamechanging plays for the Gator against Miami well I think you have to look at Joey slackman there on the defensive line as well coming in from upen obviously had good PFF grades coming from the ivy league a lot of those ivy league guys have turned out to be good NFL players I think he's got a lot of quickness a lot of size a lot of burst also think Grayson Howard pup Howard coming over from South Carolina had a really good year in his first year at South Carolina you match him up with Shamar James I think that's a good one-w combo in that linebacker room I mean you go last year when Shamar James went down the Georgia game I mean those linebackers look lost and uh before that game I mean you were playing really well at linebacker you were able to stop the run pretty well I think those two guys up front will really uh you know I guess just stifle the run a little bit hopefully let's let's hope in this week one game that they do or at least it's an even killed matchup I also like Devon Moore there's a guy that he's been hurt quite frankly but anytime every time Graham or excuse me Devon Moore has been in the game he's made plays he's gotten picks he's he's past defended defended passes and also you have Jordan Castell in his second year who's at of safety he's been playing really well played really well as freshman year right at the beginning um he's been playing well in practice too he had a really good spy on a pick six in in practice that uh actually I think Florida threw out the the film on that so I think those are the guys you look at defensively for Florida that will probably be the guys that make most of the impacts on defense and me you also get Jason Marshall returning but he didn't have the best year last year I think maybe it was part of d to and we've had really really bad problems at safety and we've shored that up with Asa Turner and some of the other guys that have come in from the transfer portal I think that that position there is pretty well-rounded with experience uh so I think he'll have a little bit more safety help there as well so I think um when it comes to backfield defense and all of that it really relies on the defensive line I mean Florida last year struggled to get pressure they return a lot uh they brought in a lot of talent from the portal so I'm curious to see whether Florida can get some push in this game against this Miami offensive line that's recruited pretty well at that position no true story um in terms of scheme because I haven't really delve into it what kind of kind of Staples on defense uh are the you know things that you're going to rely on or try to I mean obviously not for this game plan but overall like what are the things that you do on defense uh that we should be on the lookout for uh there's we we'd like to back our safeties a lot I mean there there are times where especially with arson Armstrong last year that they like to Blitz a lot and uh Todd gram did that a lot and a lot of florid Gator fans hated that I think blitzing a lot gives you gives your back field up a lot on certain plays I think they're GNA sit back a little bit more this year with Ron Roberts is gonna be a little bit more cautious there in the back field I think they'll dial up some blitzes but for the most part I think they're uh I I don't know if it's going to be cover probably cover one cover two somewhere back there but I think you know with with Ron Roberts entering in and you saw what he kind of did with Auburn's defense and how they played defense there I think you're going to get a little bit of mixture of Austin Armstrong and Ron Roberts for that defense okay um in terms of so I know you mentioned like a couple of guys at linebacker a couple guys that in the defensive back field um Xavier Restrepo is pretty much always open from the slot yeah I like we hated it that one I mean but and like it was funny because we're like oh my God why is Tyler van D always throwing the seven and there more you look you're like Seven's open so like what kind of in that second level so like your overhang Defenders your kind of like slot uh you know um defensive backs or things like what kind of things do you anticipate Florida doing to try to take away some of the things some of the routes that rreo runs really well and really often that gets him into that open space in the middle of the field well I think you're GNA have to maybe stick somebody like a Sharie Denson on him and and nickel there but I also think man like you're gonna have double team this guy probably I mean this guy had 1100 yards almost last year in the ACC made first all ACC team I mean this guy is is one of the main guys that I have that is listed as one of the the guys to worry about on Miami side obviously that's nothing that any true fan would know that because Restrepo he may not be the tallest receiver may not be the quickest but the dude knows how to get open and he knows how to get the ball and that's really what you want out of a wide receiver so yeah I mean if Florida's struggling to cover Restrepo I'd expect a double team and then that's what opens up Sam Brown and some of the other receivers that you have too so I think that is what's going to put a little bit of pressure on uh Florida's defensive back field and you know I mean you look at the wide receivers in this game I mean Florida you got DK who run he's a 4-4 guy you got badger a 4-4 guy you got Eugene a 4-3 guy I mean it's gonna be just as difficult for Miami to to guard some of these wide receivers as it is for Florida and I'm really curious to see which matchup wins that certain scenario I mean there's so many good pieces on the on both of these teams and then that's why the spread's 2.5 I mean you know most experts I talk to if you're a Florida guy you're going to pick Florida if you're a Miami guy you're going to pick Miami just because you know usually when those spreads are close you usually put on like the orange and blue glasses or the or the orange and green glasses and just go with your team right so I think it's gonna be a good game I think it's going be a close match up I think it's going to come down to the fourth quarter and who survives that fourth quarter who who buzzes out and I mean that's why the spread is the way that it is so like I think we get the home field advantage I think we win but I'm pretty sure you're a Miami guy you're gonna think you win so I I just think that Mii is a better team like I just do um you know it could be here there or on the moon I just think that Miami is a better team I don't necessarily think it's going to be a blowout but I mean it could be played in the neutral side it could be played you know like I said in any venue um I think that Miami current the current iteration of Miami versus current iteration of Florida is a better Squad um and so I'm just leaning on that you know kind of feeling ethos and success you know looking at some of the strengths and and weaknesses um but like you know there have been times you know ye it was like what three years or four years ago now um when we beat Florida State by six touchdowns yeah and I was like hey that's one where like going into the week I was easy breezy you know beautiful cover girl you know what I mean like we're we're writing troll stuff on the website I'm just like because there was no chance that that Squad wearing garet and gold was going to be anywhere near competitive yeah well well way the way they're looking you might beat them by six touchdowns again this year I don't know I don't know that they're that bad but what I do think going into this game is that while I was going to make the comparison I do not believe that the disparity between our programs is the same measure as it was that time you know when we beat Florida State by six touchdowns uh well sorry seven touchdowns EXC um so I think it is close I think yeah it will be uh you know I could see you know if you get a turn if a team gets a turnover in a short field and a a a cheap score that you know the score line could be a little bit uh expanded from what uh you would otherwise think but do you worry about do you worry about Ward turning over the ball um a little bit you know uh cam W has been a little fast and loose with the ball uh he is uh you know a an improvisor an extender of plays you know so he'll step up and around and he'll be just running there uh and and leaving the ball kind of just out there uh and we've seen at his other stops at incarnate wen at Washington state where he had to kind of increase that risk profile because like his talent was greater than the talent around him um but in doing so and had taking those risks we've seen the turnovers happen we've seen the F and the interceptions are going to like quarterbacks throw interceptions but his interception rate was relatively it was very low it's when you add the fumbles on top and especially for the most part when you think of just the hidden yardage gain if I throw a interception down here you might get a 10 15 yard return fine whatever I fumble the ball where we are and I'm behind the line of scrimmage and it's going you know what I mean like that is that can be such a massive quick change so uh I'm hopeful that you know he stays within himself he does the things that makes him special makes him one of the top five returning quarterbacks in the country uh that he does extend plays and you know he has that special sauce and I want to see that special sauce but maybe a little bit more on the ball security side camon would be I would appreciate that it would it would it would keep my my heart right and my blood pressure down through Saturday's game more than so let me size it up this way with the two QBs um cam W higher ceiling Graham Merz higher floor correct I would say gram Mer's more efficient you get more you get more of the security and efficient efficient and and I guess the I'm looking for the word you get more progression like you get safer throws with graham Merz obviously he's he's he's trying to throw it more downfield or at least that's what they say but I think you get a more safer secure quarterback more reliable out of GRA Merz but also with Cam Ward you get more risk vers reward like so if he throws it deep maybe it is a turnover or maybe it's a touchdown and it gets taken to the house I I I kind of like when I when I look at cam Ward and I'm not comparing him to this quarterback like like he's going to play like him or anything like that he reminds me of Rett Favre Rett Favre took a lot of risks threw a lot of picks but he still won a lot of games so I mean it's it's you get more risk with Ward at a cam Ward but then you get more safe secure efficiency down the field with graham Merz so with all due respect to Graham mertz's uh ability as you pointed out statistically to throw well against a pass rush and that's admirable anytime a quarterback can come through with guys in his face and throwing them on the ground I always think that that's a a great Mark of a leader and a quarterback to be able to throw under the rest however nobody has ever in the history of the sport been able to throw the ball well on their backside and so if the Miami defensive line comes to play and if the Florida offensive line is not uh what it needs to be then you're you're balancing the Graham Merz efficiency trying to take advantage of what at least last year and probably projects to be the weakest position unit on the Miami team in the secondary trying to balance out that do we get two pass happy versus protecting our quarterback and making sure he's not taking seven step drops against a pretty vaunted defensive line I mean like look I to interrupt interject like you know cam W has thrown 16 interceptions in two years on 982 throws that's 1.6% you know so like it's not I think again I think the real thing of his turnover issues were the fumbles the interceptions I think are at an acceptable rate when you have 23 and N is first year at wazu and then 25 and seven touchdowns interceptions like he's not really just willy-nilly putting the ball In Harm's Way when he when the fumbles would happen that's when you get to the mid you know teens in terms of turnovers and things like that but I would say a comparable floor um for both because we've seen again cam War do it small school you know and with again having the talent being the top of Mount Everest like he is the guy he is the Superstar on those teams and it's just like I'm playing with a bunch of dudes who basically were around pyala Washington playing pickup you know what I mean and doing the numbers that he did the ceiling is very much so higher um but yeah I mean you know hey Graham Merz has been he's like a Swiss clock he's just been Tick Tock consistent you know he's been very just hey I I could try to throw that you know but I'm going to try I'm going to hit this that's an intermediate or a a shorter kind of a throw you know put it on the guys has you know great athletic Talent you know around him at Florida so hey I would rather be sure that I hit Eugene Wilson on this five yard little wiggle route and let him go as opposed to taking the chance and throwing a deep but to Mark's point the part of the one thing the one unit that really giv me great concern in this game is Miami secondary because we might have dudes and like we've gotten recruits in but we don't have returning dudes we don't have a Tyreek Stevenson G to be a second team All-American and a second dra uh second round draft pick we don't got James Williams who made his NFL team switching to linebacker from safety like he should have at 16 years old but he didn't want to listen to me and Bud Elliot and everybody else told him that he was a linebacker whatever and first team All-American cam kinchin coming back we don't have that now we do have Michelle Powell who was played on a national uh championship game appearing Washington coming in and playing slot safety we do have uh you know darl Porter Jr actually lowkey I think was underrated last year like they they start team started throwing other ways and like his numbers weren't great because like half that feel you're not throwing over at number two is that going to be the case in this game I'm not really sure like I definitely have questions at corner um I definitely have questions at safety so if if there is time and the ability for Merch to continue to be as consistently accurate with both his decisions which is key because we saw from Tyler van djk decisions are part of throws you know so with his decision making and with his accuracy that is something that gives me slight pause and also referencing back to the last time we played y'all the two touchdowns that you had were long plays on broken tackles cadarius Tony the sideline I forget who the running back was but like if we make tackles we win that game in those two plays but we didn't and I just say that to put that out there like I know you know I do believe that Miami is a better team than Florida at current but I'm not going to say that there are not those kinds of athletes and if you take a bad angle if you don't follow through with your wrapping up and you drive your legs and like finish tackles like we saw in the last game what can happen so hopefully you know we're just dialed in on all the parts and pieces but yeah the secondary I would say across everything I would either put it to a push or Advantage Miami with the exception of the secondary that is a thing that like yeah if there's a concern that's the concern Dave unless uh Cam's got anything else I got one more thing for you go ahead we wait forever for college football to get back on the and so everybody gets excited you know there are people at Wake Forest that's that are excited and Purdue in places like that regardless of how bad your team is you know shoot the Chicago White Soxs I just saw lost their 100th game quicker than anybody since like 1900 they got 31 wins they had fans in March that thought they were gonna win the pennet everybody just gets optimistic this time of year however for as talented and this is obviously not a vintage Florida team by any stretch but it's still a team that's got talent that if you played in the Big 12 or somewhere else you'd have a better Outlook but again I have never heard so much talk and it's it's it's warranted about a schedule than what Florida has to face this year does it kind of dampen damper and weigh down that optimism coming into a season when you look at that schedule and just think man to get through that thing and to try to reach some kind of goal here and what is that and and because you wait so long for the season uh what what is your mindset personally and what you can gauge from the Florida fan base about what to realistically but optimistically be able to expect this season yeah realistically I mean from what I hear from Florida fans it's a mixed bag really there there's ones that say oh we hope for nine and three there's ones that say six and six there's ones that say seven and five I saw that camp yeah nine and three W yeah I I I I'm not believing in nine and three yet but uh I mean like you look at the schedule and obviously when you break it down I mean there's a lot of new faces at quarterback through that schedule I mean cam W's probably going to be the the the tougher I mean Nico I haven't seen a lot much I haven't seen much from Nico at Tennessee if I see more as the season goes on then then I'll make a good assessment of like where Tennessee is at and you're playing them at you're not playing you're playing them at home too so it's going to be a pretty hostile environment when you gopl playay Tennessee but I mean you look at the the beginning of that schedule a lot of new quarterbacks a new fa Mississippi State Tennessee UCF I mean you lost to KJ Jefferson last year and UCF has more talent but I mean Florida they brought in some they brought in a lot more Talent they're more experienced the uh a lot of optimism is coming out of the University of Florida so I would say realistically if you wanted to call it a good season for me and I looked at the talent profiles of every team I've done all sorts of research I say realistically you have more Talent than eight of the guys on your roster four the teams Texas Georgia Old Miss who they brought in a whole bunch out of the transfer portal and LSU are the only teams that probably have more Talent than you do oh Texas I forgot about Texas but old men did really well in the portal they still don't have as much talent on a talent profile perspective but they brought in a lot in transfer portal um I would say eight and four at the most seven and five I is kind of where I'm at right now um but I mean it could go off the rim it could go six and six 5- seven 4-8 but be being an optimistic Gator fan and trying to be a little bit Fair too at the same time I'll go seven and five if this team goes seven and five they better be ranked and if this team goes eight and four and those four losses are competitive they should probably be a playoff team I don't know it depends on depending on how things break but if you properly evaluate the teams if these teams are all as good as they're supposed to be they're going to have a run of 11- one and 10-2 teams that they're playing and they go eight and4 when nine and three and 10- two is that playoff line you go eight and four and your losses are 2723 to Texas and 3124 to Georgia I'm talking about staying competitive in those losses so you can't just go out there and get waxed four times uh and I know there that's I'm talking maybe Fantasy Land here eight and four possibly if those if the games are close but I would think you would have to at least reach n and three to even make it to that playoff