Harris sees polling gains in key battleground states

So you're looking at right now is the CNN projected map, the race to 270, where you see yellow states. There are seven of them. Those are the battleground states, the swing states, where it's very much a toss up race. Now, you talk to Democrats. They've always made clear the most likely pathway for them is in the blue wall states. We're talking about Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin. You add in the one electoral vote allocated to the congressional district and the vast Nebraska, and you get 270 electoral votes. That is a clear pathway. Just a few months ago, the Biden team was looking at that pathway as really their only pathway. Here's what's changed over the course of the last six weeks. We'll put these back into the tossup category. We're talking about Sunbelt states. I was talking about the polling that came out from Fox News and what it shows. It shows an extraordinarily tight race in places like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Three of those four states, Joe Biden won in 2020. North Carolina has long been an aspirational goal for Democrats. Now they feel like it is very much in play now. While Harris has very narrow leads in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, they're all within the margin of error. That means there is no clear leader. But here's what's interesting. When you look at these numbers, the clear gains the Harris team has made over the course of the last couple of months compare them to where Joe Biden was just a few months ago, down by every in every single one of those states by at least five points. Now, why does that matter? Again, kind of already laid out the blue wall. Those Midwestern states are really where the Democrats mostly look to to get to 270. However, what they have now on the Harris teams, what we saw in 2020, which is more pathways to 270 and for the Trump team as they pour money into Pennsylvania and Georgia. What they're looking at right now is if they can hold on to North Carolina, win those two states, they've got 270 electoral votes. If and there's a big if right now, given how close things are the Harris campaign can hang on to Pennsylvania. Win. North Carolina flipped North Carolina only once in the last 11 presidential cycles, and they've been able to actually do that. Then they put Georgia in play as well. They have a number of different pathways, and we're not even talking about some of those blue wall states. Now. Is that all going to happen? Look, it's very much a toss up race right now. Everybody on both sides will acknowledge that fact. But the battle is real. And it wasn't so much the case just a few months ago now. It certainly is now one area. The polling continues to show that Donald Trump holds an advantage, though it's narrowing a bit. Is the economy something the Trump Vance ticket and their surrogates are highlighting? Does it do any of you by for a second that the Kamala Harris economy has been good for American workers? Nobody buys it. Inflation has failed or sorry, wages have failed to keep pace with the price of groceries, the price of housing. So you've got people working harder and harder, feeling like they can't get ahead. They're in fact falling further behind as they work harder and harder. That is not an economic record to be proud of. That's what this race needs to be about. Needs to be about the economy calls the 40 year high inflation that really Joe Biden and Kamala Harris created. They're taking credit now for inflation going down. Hell, they created it to start with. You can't you can't take credit for that. Joining us now to discuss all this, CNN political commentator and Democratic strategist Maria Cardona and former deputy communications director for the Trump 2016 campaign, Brian Lanza. You guys, thanks so much. I expect definitive answers. No hedging, no ambiguity, which is impossible in this moment. And given what we're looking at right now, we want to share with you the new polling, the extremely tight races across the Sunbelt, not just in those blue wall battleground states in Georgia in particular. Joe Biden flipped it by just shy of 12,000 votes. in 2020. The Democrats feel like that is in play right now with Harrison walls down there. There's no question that it is absolutely in play. And what you saw coming out of the Democratic National Convention is that mobilization, that energy, that inspiration, from so many new voters that are looking to the Harris Walls campaign as something that is inspiring them to get involved, that she's speaking to what it is that they are looking to a leader for. And the other thing I would say, Phil, is that if you look at the new registrations target, smart data firm looked at registration in 13 states even since Kamala Harris became the nominee. And as they have updated their voter files, it shows an increase for young black women. Registration of 175%. That is unheard of. Latinas are not far behind 150% over what they were in 2020. That says to me that this inspiration, this mobilization is real, and you're going to see that on the ground. Now, I will say, and I've always said this, that this campaign needs to run like they're ten points behind. And I love that. Vice President Harris knows that understands that she always talks about being an underdog, because I think that that is exactly how they will run and how they can win. But the other thing I would say is that an underlying issue that is not being really read in the polls, measured in the polls, is this issue of reproductive freedom. We saw this play out in 2022, when everyone was talking about how this was going to be a red wave, because the focus was on the economy. Yes, the economy. People care about the economy, but people are also have the ability to go into a polling booth and have several issues on their mind. And reproductive freedom is top notch. You know, Brian, one of the things was interesting, right now, look, there is understandable focus on a very different race in the Democratic side, a very different candidate, a very different campaign, a very different moment. And yet if you look at all these numbers, the Trump team's pathways, and there are very many to 270 electoral votes are pretty much static. They're the same as they've been, which means they have a lot of options right now. As you look at the campaign and what they've been doing over the course of the last several weeks, should they be changing anything? Is their strategy need to shift at all? You know, first of all, thank you for having me. You you're absolutely right. I think for the past two months, if you look at two months ago, President Trump was playing in these blue states. It was offense. The map has expanded a little bit more, but we're still playing off in some blue states. I think Pennsylvania is going to be the state that matters the most. We all expect Georgia to fall back into place to what it normally does. You know, the San Francisco, the San Francisco values towards this taking place in rural Georgia's. It's just not going to sell. I mean, at the end of the day, when you when you drive through Georgia, you know, with the voters there, with the taxpayers, see, there is they see the inflation mobile. You know, Harris brought this inflation to their communities, wiped it out, extended their credit, causing them to to lose their farms. That's what they see with this Harris tour through with rural up through rural America and through these swing states. So I think Georgia's going to fall back into place. But as long as we continue to play, offense is going to be good. you have to remember the Trump support has stayed stagnant. That's that's where he needs to remain. And as policy gets rolled out, as Harris makes these policy announcements, these policy decisions, it's not going to be a game of addition for her. It's going to be a game of subtraction because it's more and more people learn about her policies, the more and more she becomes less of this sort of inspirational figure, and the more and more she falls back into this Partizan figure, you know? And Maria, to Brian's point, I've heard that from a lot of Republicans who say when she starts talking to the press, people are going to start opening their eyes a little bit more about where she stands on very specific issues. The interview tonight, it has been 40 some odd days. Republicans have been very critical of the fact. There hasn't been one yet. Democrats have said, guys, we had to stand up a campaign in 40 days. but this is an important moment and there's going to be a ton of eyes on it. And it's unscripted. And we know Dan is pretty darn good at her job. What do you think the campaign wants out of this? I think the campaign is really looking forward to this interview. Phil and I love that they chose CNN and they chose Dana, because they are looking forward to having her sit down along with her vice presidential nominee, Tim Walsh, to be able to talk more about what she and he have already presented to the American people. I know Republicans love to use this thing. You know, to to to have it be a criticism because they have nothing else. Right. This issue that she hasn't done interviews, they have nothing else to fall back on. She has been talking to the press, but more importantly, Phil, she's been talking to voters. And that is why you see the enthusiasm across the board, across this country, even in the polls. That's why Republicans are so concerned. Tonight is another opportunity for Kamala Harris and Tim Walsh to show and to talk to and tell the American people about what they would do to lower their cost of living, about what they would do to expand access to health care, to lower prescription drugs the way that they have been doing to help American families deal with crushing student debt with which Republicans don't want to do, frankly. And so there's so much of a contrast that Kamala Harris and Miles can show tonight. They will show how they wake up every single day focused on helping the American people. Contrast that with a 34 times convicted felon and Donald Trump, who only focuses on what this. He can get out of this for himself. He's never done anything in his life that doesn't have anything to do with what benefit he can get out of it. He's only in this to stay out of prison, and you can tell he can never stay on message. Brian, I know is blue in the face talking about how Donald Trump should continue to talk about the economy and inflation and and immigration. But he doesn't do that. He is on social media. He is reposting sexual slurs and, you know, horrific content. That's the contrast. I mean, I would say after working on the 2016 campaign and Brian's pretty practiced and all of this, I think at some point it's a fascinating moment because both campaigns really do want to talk about the contrast of the policy issues, because they both think they can win. we'll have to see what happens. Maria Cardona Brian Lindsey, as always, thanks so much. Thanks,