Parliament is returning. A non-confidence vote looms, but is an election likely? | The Current

hello I'm Matt Galloway and this is the current podcast we are gearing up for a rocky parliamentary session here in Ottawa jug meet Singh has ripped up his agreement with the Liberals Pierre PV is chomping at the bit to get a motion of non-confidence going and there are questions about just how long the liberal government and Justin Trudeau as the party's leader can survive joining me to break it all down is our team of political Watchers Stephanie Levitz is a senior reporter for the glob males Ottawa Bureau Ryan tumult is a part mentary reporter for the National Post and Rosie Barton is the cbc's chief political correspondent good morning to you all good morning morning good morning I used that word Rocky uh what word would you describe uh the Parliamentary session ahead uh Rosie let's start with you um unpredictable which is something that that uh journalists like us like um so so that will be exciting I listen I I think that there is um some unpredictability to it some potential for instability but I think that the likelihood that we get to a place where an election happens this fall is pretty slim and that's because uh most opposition parties don't want that to happen neither the NDP nor from what we can hear from the block cuqua them either so you just have the the conservatives sort of sitting there as you said chomping at the bit and hoping to make this happen so they will try to do that um through a confidence motion they will try to put pressure on their their friends to to join them in this Venture but I think it's still going to be kind of exciting because the whole dynamic uh inside the house has changed and while while there's no formal deal the government is now going to have to find ways to ensure its own Survival that's how minority parliaments work but that that will mean that um we can take nothing for granted Rosie had lots more than one word Ryan what's your one word I thought that was just a turn of phrase uh frenetic it would be my one word I I think you know we I agree with uh Rosie that I don't think we will see a fall campaign it's just not in enough people's interests um but that doesn't mean that we won't see uh chaos in the house the one thing about the supply and confidence agreement I think that's sort of underappreciated is that it also made other legislation move through the house quicker and easier uh there were less you know Marathon debates for example there sort of more agreement on doing things in a bit more of an orderly fashion and the NDP helped the Liberals move bills along uh even if they weren't part of the confidence agreement so all that's up the window probably Stephanie I should have known better than to try to hold those two to one word you go with your one word um and I'll pick sort of a combination of where the two of them landed which is kinetic okay everything is going to be in moving it's always going to be constant motion this Parliament nothing is probably going to get done because everything is going to be about jockeying for political Supremacy for attacking the other person for making it everybody's life difficult it's going to be in constant motion but nothing's actually going to get created okay uh let's get into this pier PV has been daring the NDP to join uh the conservatives in a non-confidence vote let's hear him Common Sense conservatives will put forward a non-confidence motion at the earliest possible opportunity and I'm asking ja meet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday's byelections will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly Coalition and trigger a carbon tax election or will Jag meet sing sell out Canadians again okay so listening to you guys you don't think that it's going it's going to happen this fall but Stephanie Levitz How likely is pi Pier PV to get the votes out to bring the government down oh that's a great question I mean a lot of it will depend on the context of it all at what point in time does he actually is he actually able to table what would be a binding non-confidence Motion in the government I mean that is somewhat up to the government itself the way the Parliamentary calendar Works they have to schedule certain days for the opposition to have its business that could not in theory that could be months from now not days from now and as we have seen consistently in the life of you know this Parliament things change from week to week so quickly that the conditions to bring down the government that may or may not exist let's say next week could be entirely different in two months time okay Ryan you mentioned the supply and confidence agreement uh jug me S Singh metaphorically ripped it up anyway uh and he's been trying to to distance himself from the Liberals uh even yesterday he he suggested the NDP is against the carbon tax we want to see an approach to fighting the climate crisis where it doesn't put the burden on the backs of working people where big polluters have to pay their fair share they have to pay the price of their pollution but it shouldn't be on working people's shoulders and so we've been working on a plan and we'll be releasing our plan our vision for how we can do that in a stronger way in the coming months so Ryan pretty light on details there uh wouldn't say exactly where he stood on the price of carbon for consumers uh what should we read into that uh I think what I read into that is that he is trying to distance himself from the Liberals and from one of their more unpopular policies uh the carbon tax uh you know is at best begrudgingly accepted um it is not a popular policy it has never been a popular policy uh but the Liberals feel that it is a necessary policy to deal with climate change um the NDP feel that climate change has to be dealt with of course um and they've supported the tax in the past so I I found those comments interesting yesterday um and I guess we'll wait and see what more details looks like uh when the NDP leader gets around to creating them it it hasn't been a popular tax but it does seem like there's a bit of a Pyon going on right now uh Rosie BC has an election coming up next month uh NDP leader David yby said yesterday if they're reelected his party would end the provincial carbon tax uh if the federal government dropped the the the legal requirement for it and and that's significant I BC was first in jurisdiction in North America to have a carbon tax so so how big of a problem for this is uh for the for the federal liberals yeah I mean that BC has had a consensus around the need to price carbon um before almost anyone else Quebec would be closely behind so the idea now that this is suddenly uh not on the table is significant I mean as you say there is an election happening um and the other party also promised to get rid of the carbon tax if the federal government uh this federal government is not reelected so there's a lot of politics going on there but I I do think it feeds into uh what Pier PV has been saying for months now that he wants a carbon tax election that um this is a real vulnerability for for the liberal government that they themselves admit they have failed to properly explain it to Canadians and if we now have sort of momentum building against a carbon tax I think that that is uh potentially very troubling for for Justin Trudeau I will say though I I felt like jug meet Singh painted himself into yet another corner by saying that yesterday I I get why he did it I think Ryan's right to distinguish himself but now he has to also take that into consideration every time he votes it's like every time he takes a position or criticizes something he puts himself into a space where he's going to have to be able to justify why he's voting for or against yeah so so what does he do I mean uh Stephanie let me ask you I mean do do we have any clues from the NDP about what they'd be likely to support and and and where those lines might be we can look to the past I suppose for some degree of an example and something that jug me Singh and his party has said a lot that they try to focus on what delivers benefits to Canadian so perhaps you know we find ourselves in a situation where if we're talking for example the third reading um vote on a piece of legislation that the NDP has been championing such as pharmacare uh you know okay they're going to vote for that but they're not going to vote for other things it doesn't really matter until we get to a confidence motion though right so if some of that then will come down to how the conservatives intend to frame the language that they'll use right will they go sometimes the conservatives love to to load things up with a ton of political Preamble you know whereas the blah blah blah and the carbon tax duh and they make everybody vote on it and it's a lot of it's a lot of you know song and dance there if the conservative and then that will force jug meet sing into a corner because he's gonna have to justify if the conservative just go clean and clear the house has lost confidence in the government maybe that's something that jug meet sing can in fact vote for because if he doesn't then how does he justify anything anymore at all let's talk about specifics I mean one thing that that jug meet Singh said that that part of what soured uh his party on its deal with the Liberals was the decision to to send the railway workers uh to to binding arbitration uh ran there's there's pressure on the government now to intervene in yet another labor dispute this time with with Air Canada Pilots uh what's your sense on on what the government is weighing with those options you know I think it's it's the same thing that the government has to weigh every time comes up with these options and that is you know what is the broader impact of a strike like that uh the rail strike uh was going to be catastrophic to this country if it extended for you know more than a few days uh a billion dollars in Freight moves on those lines every day um you know you were talking about things like grain Farmers uh you know losing $50 million a day you were talking about cities facing problems getting chlorine for their water treatment plants like those sorts of things become essential I don't think the Liberals were particularly eager to be dragged into that dispute I don't think they're particularly eager to be dragged into the Air Canada dispute either um I think Air Canada will be different um for the government because it is not as significant as the two National Rail lines um but certainly it's another pressure point and it is kind of illustrating the difference between being in opposition and being in government um in government sometimes you have to take uh politically unpopular choices for the greater good and you know this might be one of them Rosie let me get your take on that because a lot of listeners looking at their plane tickets nervously right now what what are the politics that play there yeah I I I totally agree that this is one of those moments where you maybe don't want to be the government and have to make hard decisions Steve McKinnon the the labor minister is in Toronto talking to both sides telling them to stay at the table you heard the Prime Minister say the same thing yesterday but as that's being said you know jug meet sing says absolutely no binding arbitration and even pure Quia have kind of stayed away from uh stayed away from that only saying that Pilots aren't paid enough in this country um I agree that it's not as catastrophic as the rail stoppage but I think it affects Canadians like more directly in some ways you know if there's 100,000 Canadians traveling on Air Canada every day hundreds of flights and people stuck sort of mid holiday um and they are maybe not going to take their anger out just on Air Canada they could potentially take it out on a government that doesn't seek to move quickly so I I fear that that's probably where things are headed if these two sides can't get a deal and of course we've got byelections let's talk byelections uh started the summer with that that big shocker in the writing of of Toronto St Paul's which was a solid liberal seat uh now conservative uh Stephanie or starting the fall with another two byelections on Monday one in Winnipeg one in Montreal uh could we see another political earthquake yeah it's it's interesting I mean a different Stakes really for both writings in the Toronto bi elction it was a clean conservative versus liberal fight and the other two the two byelections we have coming up on Monday the one in Quebec and near monreal is a is a three-way fight really it's liberals new Democrats the bla the conservatives are non-existent in this particular campaign uh who ends up winning it in LEL um will be interesting because it will be either a boost or a demoralizing moment for either side so if the Liberals lose it many people think they will you know is this another sort of Notch in the line of things that will lead people to say Justin Trudeau must go if new Democrats win it they can claim victory and say look see we told you ripping up the deal was a great idea look what it's done for us even though it might not actually be connected if the BL kqu win um you know this bolsters this idea we sometimes forget about the Block in our national political discussions but they do have a lot of power in the House of Commons and in Parliament a pickup in this seat against the liberal government would put some wind in their their sales and it would be interesting to see what sort of they try to extract from the liberal government in in exchange for propping them up which they could very well do I also want to ask you guys about the liberal staffing issues right now uh the national campaign director uh announced he's quitting uh this week uh it seems two cabinet ministers Pablo Rodriguez Maryann Mary CLA BAU are considering seeking different elected offices rather than running for reelection so Ryan uh well let's listen to Justin Trudeau first uh he he keeps getting asked about his political future uh let's listen to his answer I can't wait to continue getting into it this fall with P PV whose perspective is cuts are the only way forward because I know that confident countries invest in their future invest in their workers invest in their people and that's what we're going to continue to do Ryan uh Justin trudo can't wait what do we think of that answer um you know I think that's that's a genuine answer actually I I do think that the Prime Minister likes sparring with Pier PV I think uh the two of them are you know I think they're more than than just parliamentary opponents I think they fundamentally don't like each other um you know I don't see the Prime Minister inviting uh pure po of around to R cottage for a drink at any point in time uh that's just that's just not the relationship and I do think that you know the Liberals definitely feel that um they have a alternative vision of the country um that Pier poov is running against that Vision uh fundamentally um and they really do believe that you know in a better economy when Canadians start to feel better when interest rates start to come down and people start comparing the two Alternatives um you know that the liberal party will be able to pull ahead just Trudeau seems to be sticking to his line uh we all know from Joe Biden now that that leaders are absolutely staying on until they aren't uh Rosie are there any chances of of of Justin Trudeau being out before this election I mean sure I'm I'm not going to be the person that's that's going to say it's impossible but I I I think that he is as Ryan said quite um excited to take on a fight against Pier Pia then I will say that after their Caucus meeting earlier this week in British Columbia uh many of the people I reached out to caucus members feel a little bit better about things frankly there was a presentation made by his chief of staff and his uh executive director of communications to talk about sort of what they were going to talk about through the fall and what direction they were headed and and some MPS found that quite reassuring I think for the MPS who don't find that reassuring who are concerned about their jobs who are going to be watching what happens on Monday those byelections there's a possibility that some of those people just start leaving you mentioned two cabinet ministers but there are other people Andy Filmore has left his seat to run to be the mayor of Halifax and other people might make those kinds of decisions as well because if you know the leader's not going anywhere nobody's trying to get rid of them actively um your only other option then is to show yourself the door Stephanie I want to get your take too though I mean are should liberals be looking to the south at what happened with with uh with the Democrats and and and wondering if their leader should should be stepping aside there I think if there's probably a pretty big distinction between Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau and one of those distinctions is about 35 years of age right the the the the energy level that President Joe Biden was putting forward to American voters sort of the physical stumbl some of that that was the thing perhaps that was really turning people off I would say that even conservatives will agree that Justin Trudeau remains a formidable campaigner he's charismatic um the polls are what they are but people do still like him they do still respond to him there is life in the old dog yet you know and um while it would be the conservatives would certainly be thrown into a strategic problem if Justin Trudeau were to leave because really they're framing everything right now around Justin Trudeau everything is Justin Trudeau's fault and so if he were to go it' be interesting to see how they would pivot um but I think you know there is I'm sure some liberals looking down to the South and saying well hey like look what happened you know reverse their fortunes the Democrats were more abund but I don't think that the stakes or the situation plays out identically here in Canada uh we got about 30 seconds left I'm just I just got to ask about a wild rumor floating around Mark Carney uh I mean is is that a possibility for a leader Ryan last word to you um I don't think it's a possibility for a leader unless uh Justin trudo decides he wants to leave um you know Mark Carney I think it's a pretty much open secret has an interest in future politics an interest in leadership politics one day um but he's not pushing Justin Trudeau out the door that's that's not why he decided to to go work for him at the Liberal Party basically all right uh Canadians should be looking forward to a an unexpected a kinetic fall apparently frantic and chaotic uh I'm sure we'll have to have you back on the panel thank you all for joining us thanks thank you thanks Stephanie Levitz is a senior reporter for the globe males Ottawa Bureau Ryan tumulty is a parliamentary reporter for the National Post and Rosie Barton is the cbc's Chief political correspondent