Post Debate Poll: Harris Won, BUT No Gain

Intro hello everybody today we're going to take a look at this post debate poll and I don't have a lot of time so I'm going to get right into it but this came out yesterday and it used 1174 likely voters the poller was Ledger and I can't say I'm overly familiar with them but this was released on New York Post and the Results headline is Kerris clearly won debate over Donald Trump but VP got no bump from voters after performance so that might be indicative of the polarized political climate the only thing that seemed to move the neita was Biden dropping out of the race after the Trump assassination attempt a lot of people thought his popularity might spike a little bit it didn't really happen after both conventions nothing really seemed to change either and after this debate it looks like the needle has moved very little if at all so let's go down here a little bit and this confirms what I've seen from the headlines in most media half of respondents who watched at least some portion of the debate said Harris was the winner 29% said Trump was the winner and 133% said neither candidate had won the debate that's actually similar to the post-debate poll I put up on my live stream the other day but then it goes on to say the poll shows Trump gained 1 percentage point of support among likely voters from a pre-debate survey taken following the DNC convention meanwhile Harris held steady so that again seems counterintuitive if most people think Harris won the debate you think she'd get at least a temporary bump of one or two points at the very least I would not think Trump would go up after that performance again that might just go to show you how polarized we are and how the debates might not actually impact voters all that much I do like debates I think they should happen but even if Harris won the debate it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to change a lot of Minds so if we go Trend down here we've got the trend of Trump versus Biden and then Harris this goes back to late last year at first Biden had the advantage but then earlier the year Trump flipped it and took the lead then it was pretty much tied until Biden dropped out then Harris has had about a three to fourpoint lead ever since and this is just for the national popular vote and remember four years ago Biden won the popular vote by about four and a half and there was still a very narrow win in the key swing states which gave Biden the win in the Electoral College so I would think Harris would need to win that National popular vote by Le three points so down here it says 60% of respondents who watched all or part of Tuesday's debate described it as good compared to just 42% who gave the same rating to the Biden in Trump debate and under here another 29% of debate viewers gave it a bad grade compared to 49% who said the same about the Trump Biden debate and then if you want to know how many people tuned into this debate we've got about 67 million from preliminary data it's up from 51 million in the last debate and then down here we've got some Crosstabs cross tabs on the voting intention and for 18 to 34 year-olds Harris is getting 53 Trump is actually getting 43 that has got to be higher if you're the Harris campaign 35 to 54 year olds are also going for Harris by5 50 to 45 and 55 and up are breaking for Trump by Four Points 51 to 47 and then with male voters Trump is leading by n 53 to 44 Harris is getting female voters 56 to 40 so that's a decent Gap then it goes back to talk about Biden and his disappointing debate performance then we've got cross tabs here for who won this debate and again the top line is 50 for Harris 29 for Trump 13 say no one 18 to 34 year olds say Harris W by 15 48 to 33 35 to 54 year olds also Harris by 19 50 to 31 and 55 and up Harris again the widest margin yet 52 to 25 male voters also said Harris W 48 to 35 females even wider so it's pretty clear that Harris has the edge in that debate I don't think it's overwhelming but I think she has the edge she came in there more fired up and Trump took the bait too many times now you can talk about the moderators you can say Harris maybe went over the top you could say Trump was still fine I get all that but the bigger takeaway for me is this debate doesn't really seem to have moved the needle at least so far in fact it seems like it moved it in the other direction Harris stayed at 50% while Trump went up one 46 to 47 so yet again whatever people think is going to happen they really should be prepared for a range of different outcomes and they might be wrong and the last thing they mention here is they pulled if Biden had remained in the race he would be trailing Trump by eight points 43 to 38 9% would go somewhere else and six say they don't no I guess that's totally pointless now but it does show you how Harris does compared to Biden and then also at the very bottom keep in mind here the margin of error is plus or minus 2.72 points now one last thing we're going to do is take a look at the accuracy of this poster so for that we're going to get on 538 and because they removed this data earlier in the year we do have to use the way back Pollster machine so Ledger also known as insights West they've got a b/c rating they've only got 12 polls analyzed let's go down here and take a look at their accuracy this is within 3 weeks of an election those are supposed to be the better polls and it shows you how close or how biased they were the blue dots on the left overestimated Democrats the red dots on the right did the same for the Republicans so a few more dots on the left side but let's look at the specifics the most recent polls on here are 2020 they had sample sizes of over 800 likely voters and this was right before the general election it says here they pulled online and they had Biden ahead by eight points of course Biden won by 4 and A2 so they overestimated Biden's support by 3 and A2 usually we see Trump being underestimated in 6 and 20 this kind of does back that up but again it doesn't really necessarily mean it's going to happen again in 2024 then they go back to 2016 they had Clinton ahead by four points but they overestimated her support by 1.9 so more underestimation of Trump's support Republicans are definitely banking that that's going to happen again Democrats are saying this year it's a different story and they also have some State polls here they did President in Washington and they were pretty close they only overestimated Trump's support by 1.2 in the key state of Nevada they had a tide and they underestimated Hillary support by 2 and 1/2 California they underestimated her by 7.1 in Arizona they underestimated Trump by 1 1/2 the senate race in California was very close the senate race in Arizona underestimated McCain by five the senate in Washington was pretty good a two-point error and Washington governor was spot on so it looks like they have a pretty good track record in Washington but again that's all in retrospect nationally they do seem to underestimate Trump but we don't know what's going to Close happen this time but either way that's a look at this post- debate poll and a little bit of background about this pollster so let me know in the comments do you like this poll do you not like it are you surprised to see Harris not get any kind of an improvement and actually Trump is the one who went up one point did you find anything in the cross tabs or any other data you're taking a look at and what do you think about this pollster let me know Down Below on your way out don't forget to like share and subscribe and join if you'd like to support the channel thanks for watching and I'll see you next time