Will #Bitcoin Drop, Again? 💥 Analysis Update & Price Prediction #BTC / $BTC

hey everyone welcome back to cryptocash thank you again so much for joining me here hope you're having a great day let's take another look here at Bitcoin see what's going on wow what an interesting uh scenario here we got this descending type of trend we haven't broken free from no reason to take a long position and we also got uh a decent consideration for the price coming down lower because we keep retesting this lower range at about 585 that was a previous FIB level um and when we talk about current fibs my speculation is that you know is a worst case or more immediate case scenario the price does continue lower which seems probable based on the overall trend for the moment we can see that roughly 57,000 uh as well as 55k are the two approximate areas there uh there's also 54,000 based on liquidation so let's go ahead and take a look at that kind of get started if you could please hit the like button comment below absolutely appreciate that do that every time you watch my videos it'll help get this in front of more people so less uh Moon boys get uh get the views again nothing wrong with them it's just I don't really like idiots that tell people what to do and and end up destroying their accounts it's just kind of frustrating well I like helping new Traders uh become better more responsible uh it's frustrating that uh you know that's actually that's actually a thing right Bitcoin is not going to the moon it's not going to zero it's going to do a lot of stuff intraday and and in between stuff that's what we want to look at here we're going to focus more so in the macro today of course just to get perspective on bigger movements but also kind of understand what to look for for Trend reversal if that's even a thing right now uh let's go ahead and quickly note with liquidation we can see 58k 577 roughly is that heavier concentration of immediate liquidation these are the late Longs that are soon to potentially get destroyed uh it's not a guarantee of course cuz as you build more you know more uh more volume at specific areas or in this case liquidation liquidity whatever the case and point is that there's more support there because that's where people feel the bottom is now Market Movers market makers they're going to be the ones to determine that truthfully and they're the ones that like to destroy this here and essentially continue the price in whichever direction they see fit right now there's blood in the blood in the water and uh I don't think they're going to stop but again we got to wait and see what happens right you got to be patient and try to find the right bottom before you take a long position at this point it's still too premature after my analysis from yesterday I pretty much said I'm going to wait 24 to 48 hours before I do anything that's just me personally again if you're a day trader different story Al together but from a swing Trader perspective it's irresponsible to take a long position right now taking a look here though if we can see 575 that's kind of the heavier concentration about 10 billion at 575 then 57,000 we Zoom down or zoom out rather look a little bit lower 54k is the next heaviest concentration so if you look at the charts 57,5 FIB level this is basically the local FIB if you're not sure how I drew that simply put you draw most you from the most Lo local low to the Local High um while I don't have the macro pulled up on this chart we can look at that here as well cuz there is a bigger picture that you maybe want to consider with some larger FIB levels okay uh so again just know that you know there's different snars different uh way ways in which you can draw out your FIB levels but from a macro perspective you'd probably go from the most recent High to the most recent low uh but more so where we're at right now we're taking the most recent low of the most recent High okay it's generally what we're looking at uh so why don't we just go and start from the top of work way down first of all Bitcoin dominant still uh at an all-time high or you know highest point in which it's continuing to do basically is telling us that altcoins are getting hit pretty hard so until we you know until Bitcoin Dom starts to drop there's no reason to expect altcoins to start surging we might see a shift of momentum soon another couple days a lot of times that happens after the bottom kind of starts tentatively uh defining itself we'll see altcoin start to take off and some outliers might be worth taking Longs it's not the case right now there's very few that are doing that you were seeing those natural nric reactions I think e jumped up 5% dropped 5% in like an hour those are just things you don't want to trade what we look at here though we wanted to verify double check a couple things and recognize that we do have a CME Gap basically a fair value Gap roughly the same thing in a lot of ways uh right here between between 60.5 and 61.8 I sent that on my Twitter Telegram and Discord last night uh in case you're not familiar make sure to check that out those links are below but the concept there is that this Gap will typically get filled again it's not necessarily an immediate thing but there's possibility if the price recovers that we'll either reject off the top end of that or just in general uh we might even continue higher there's no real guarantees but the truth is the guarantee that we're looking for is that that will get filled eventually okay it may not be today it may not be tomorrow but in the future that will happen so we just want to pay close attention that once we start getting Clos to that range there's a solid chance we're going to travel into that area sweep the the liquidation and pull right back so what we're looking for really is to see if there's a lot of liquidation accumulating at the 615 Mark which there isn't anything just yet but if there is then that would be a case in point um okay let's go ahead and take a look quickly at the macro fibs here and work our way down just go ahead and look on the I guess we can start with a weekly and just give you perspective here that there's a lot of fair value down below the price action we don't need to worry about that for the most part all the immediate fair value has been swept uh you know the recent one as low as 53,000 um what I want to get at here is that we're under the 20day SMA still on the weekly is generally not favorable while the week hasn't closed yet it seems pretty likely we're going to close under 65k I'd be very surprised if the price made a run back to that level uh at least to round out the week so just to clarify we're kind of right in this danger zone here right at 50 in the RSI um leading to the fact that we're probably more likely to see some downside again this is just a weekly scenario this is not a guarantee at all like the weekly um I don't really put a lot of emphasis on the weekly I I like to kind of touch on it but I would say the daily is probably the more uh the the better more accurate uh macro uh time frame just based on you know specific moving averages because again when we look at RSI we're under 50 now that's a bearish Divergence um while money flow index is kind of averaging itself out it's still not looking great and if we look at the RSI our stochastic and macd they're both swinging down pretty hard so again at this point we're not in great situ we're not in a great situation uh for the daily time frame to look any good I mean we're we just rejected off the 20day SMA here as well and the price Wicked up to that 6,200 basically 60,000 even probably an easy way to describe it had I been awake for that I probably would have shorted 60,000 honestly uh even though I usually recommend waiting um there there's no doubt that we're in a bearish type of Divergence and that taking a short position specifically with Bitcoin I'm not referring altcoins right now is a better strategy okay I'm not saying that you should short Bitcoin right now exactly but 60,000 is that you know that general area that I like to kind of take Longs or shorts at okay I'm glad we held off on our long at 60 that I was originally wanting to take because the price just ran and that's why you don't try to catch falling knives okay so all that being said what are we talking about here in the daily the summary is that we're bearish okay there's no other way around it 4H hour time frame is what somewhat of a transitionary time frame letting us know we're below every single moving average we're still respecting this descending trend line until we break the descending Trend at the very least there's no reason to consider long position taking a look here of course at RSI we're back up over 30 so it is good generally being over 30 in the RSI on the 4 Hour is it's not bullish by any stretch it simply implies that you shouldn't be you know you should have closed or Tak some profit on your short uh for example for our short trade we took 53% in 3 days we had every single Target from 64 to 50 down as low as I think 50 585 59 somewhere in that range and um it worked out pretty well of course $1.6 billion sold off in a matter of of minutes that tends to help right but the key takeaway here is that now that we're back up above it it generally implies that you don't want to be super greedy with your current position going to the downside even though there's still a distinct probability the price keeps going down you may want to consider securing profit that's kind of what that's telling us uh ma is converging stokas RSI is also converging sorry correction I misspoke this is not converging it's just losing its momentum okay and it makes sense cuz it was such a momentous downtrend that anything even sideways action is going to have it tape off so that's really a false positive I don't trust that at this moment we can also see stochastic swinging up that's very natural for this significant downtrend because if you look at RTD squential you can see we are overextended leading into this and when you saw my analysis from yesterday you'll you'll know this time yesterday I was I said this feels like a trap this doesn't feel right cuz we're overextended even though it would be logical for the price to bounce off this local high which was 60 5 it continued to run okay again a lot of that is based on Myriad of factors that I covered but the general consensus here is that it's still not we're still not back on track and uh even even if we're overextended there's no reason to buy this dip okay now spot bags maybe a different story my spot mys spot uh limit orders are pretty heavy in the 55 to 50K range okay now again that's just me personally there's no guarantee it's even going to happen but I'm I'm pretty well averaged out between 55 and 60 so I'm going to wait for a little bit lower a price point now the reason why I think that could essentially be a thing is just based on how much liquidation we have to the downside here well there's a ton above us don't get wrong um it would make sense based on this downtrend and just how you know bad September months typically are in trading that we probably see somewhere in the range of 50 to 60k as our range bound activity for this month now again a lot needs to happen for us to get that uh get that way but um I wouldn't be surprised okay so hourly time frame each moch Cloud all green lights to leave short position open okay so generally speaking at this point until we break above the descending trend line or get above the cloud like we need to be here at the very least preferably here or higher to Warrant a long position I would still feel uncomfortable taking a long here at about 60 61,000 that normally be a confirming factor that I'd be looking for forong but something tells me if we get that CME Gap filled we're going to see more of a retracement uh again depends on when and how how fast that happens honestly but there's a lot of things that can happen the truth is there's no reason to take long positions right now try not to get super crazy I know everybody always wants to be the person to find that that best lowest price point but the truth is dollar cost averaging is probably going to be your best friend right now and you're better off um trading to the downside than you are the upside until things start to to shift we can maintain this range and just hold this what 585 upwards of about 60k then we'll have we'll have a much better shot at taking a um you know taking a trade with confidence confidence but right now not a lot of confidence right now and generally speaking you do want to buy fear versus you know the the greed right so at this point it is hypothetically a better time to consider buying it just depends on if you're using leverage or not okay so again High leverage low position size at the very least right preferably low low on both and you can survive uh the es and flows like for example we took 10% profit in 5 days from salana not the strongest trade ever but that trade was fairly well in the red and we adjusted appropriately based on its key level resistances and the fact that Bitcoin was expected to pull back so all those things combined allowed for us to save and you know save that trade okay and that wouldn't happened if we used High leverage that's the difference okay so either way just some things to can think about I hope you learned something today though and I'll go ahead and post our playout chart here on our Twitter Telegram and Discord as per usual and we look forward to seeing you on the next one thanks again for your support we'll see see you soon have a good rest of your day bye