JOLTS Hit US Economy Sinking Ship | The Program | Money Time

Intro [Music] welcome to the program today's jolt report is a Miss signaling a softening in the job market and stoking fears of recession we also have the yield curve un inverting also signaling you know worries about a recession incoming we have Dollar Tree dropping more than 15% here at the open after the release of their earnings and let's have a look at all this worrying signal overall in the economy let's have a look here at JOLTS CNBC talking about this jol report job openings fell more than expected in July in another sign of labor market softening and Below you can read the bond market yield curve returns to normal from uninverted state that has raised recession fear let's have a quick look here at the jol uh article and let's see what they say here job opening slump to their lowest level in three and a half years in July the labor department reported Wednesday in another sign of slack in the labor market the department closely watch job opening and labor turnover survey commonly referred as jolts showed that available position fell to 7.67 million on the month of 237,000 from June's downwardly revised number and the lowest since January 2021 now of course the expectation was 8.1 million so we're you know half a million here of the mark and this of course has been uh creating worries and you would think oh that is bad for the market absolutely not no the market well it was up now it's sold off a little bit but it was uh up a little bit earlier but definitely not what you would expect from a mess like that and of course we are in psychotic land here for the market and bad news is still somewhat of good news and of course if the job market is softening that's going to force the hand of the FED to drop rates and maybe drop them even more then what the market expects which of course would uh be good for the market or at least Market participants seem to think it would be good for them but maybe it could be terrible and the market could be wrong Yield Curve now let's have a quick look at the second article here about the bond market and the yield curve that has been un inverting let's see what they say the relationship between the 10 and the 2-year treasury yield briefly normalized Wednesday reversing a classic recession indicator following economic news that showed a sharp decline in job openings and doish remarks from Atlanta fed president RAF bastage The Benchmark 10e yield inch above the two-year for the first time since June 2022 and of course we've been waiting for a long time for this un inversion we have to remind you that the inversion had been one of the most uh most critical the biggest one that we've seen in recent history and uh if this is a signal for sort of the the magnitude of the recession that could be happening after the UN inversion then this doesn't Fair good for the economy what do they say here the respective yields were both around 3.79 on the session just a few thousand per Point separating them Let's uh move now to Twitter here and let's look at what people are saying about this uninverted version of the yield curve now who is this guy I cannot pronounce that name I don't know who he is one of the longest y curve inversion in the US in the past 40 years seemed to be coming to an end the chart shows the difference between the 10 and the 2-year when the yield curve is inverted this difference become negative yes it's one of the biggest recession incoming ask Market M Maestro an inverted Yi curve occurs when the interest rate on the 2-year treasury bond except the 10e historically after this situation occurs and the FED Cuts interest rates recessions have followed and you know of course let's have a quick look at the graph here and you can see here uh the recessions in uh Pink and you know it's always sort of the same scenario the FED keeps the rate high for a long time and it basically just destroys the economy and when the yield curve here in blue un inverts meaning it goes back above the zero line here as it did here in uh 2000 and 2009 briefly of course uh during the covid crisis here but you know that was a different situation because there was was a a pandemic and uh wasn't really part of the natural economic cycle but here we can see that if we're following the same uh sort of the same um events then we're un inverting here and you know the the scenario repeats again and we can expect then a Fed rate that's going to collapse and the the inversion of yker progressing and of course that would be very bad for the economy for the employment market for the stock market for everything it will be a dramatic recession but let's see a little bit of what other people have to say uh Mohammed L Aran here also noting about three hours ago that the 10 and the two are dis inverting and let's see that was one I'm not sure what is Luke groman saying here the last time the US yield curve uninverted with us debt to GDP at 123% us deficit uh GDP at 7% blah blah blah Central Bank not having bought any USD in 10 years but different this time okay GIS Solway yield curve flips positive longest period in history of an inverted yield curve comes to a close historically an inversion as signal the beginning of a recession of course hinting maybe that uh since this is the longest period of inversion then it could be the longest recession who knows but what could be the reaction of the FED if that was to happen I was looking for a chart here but I'm not sure I think it might be gone let me see if I can find it I don't think it's going to work out but basically that was following sort of what gett Solway was saying and it was a chart that was going back all the way to 1929 and um that also showed that uh the inversion that we are having is essentially the deepest inversion since 1929 and apparently the longest one ever so if uh you know if oh Paul Krugman let's see what well that that was a long time ago but um this doesn't feel good you know and uh here is a funny article here from uh market watch the yield curve just turned normal it's a positive sign for stocks so we've had you know everybody commenting here exactly the opposite but of course you know the mainstream media and market watch here pushing a narrative that goes totally contrary to sort of common wisdom and what everybody is saying and let's have a quick look here at this article it's not very long but uh you will see that they actually provide no fact whatsoever that would support this title that this is a positive positive sign for stocks the so-called yield curve has been sending an ominous message by the economy for more than two years but now it is looking healthier un inverting but it's not really looking healthier if this signals the beginning of a recession you on the long-term Bond are ordinally higher than the short term because investors man higher return to cover the risk of inflation but from 2022 through Wednesday morning that relationship has nearly always been reversed leaving shortterm yields above those the longer dat debt that matters because an inversion of yield Cur a short plotting to return of debt of various maturities hisor historically has being a sign that a recession is on the way so they're saying you that's a bad sign but they're still tiling it's a good side they yield on the 2-year treasur Dev well you know we can skip all that but basically they don't tell you anything they don't give you any reason as to why that would be a positive sign they just say in the title it's a positive sign and yet in the body of the article they're going to tell you you know the common wisdom and what everybody knows that when the yield curve earn inverts it's the beginning of the problems and that's usually a signal for recession and all the recessions that we've had in modern history have all been preceded by uh an inversion and then an an inversion of the yield curve and yet somehow without any fact without any evidence without any argument they are putting a title that totally contradicts the body of the article saying it's a positive sign for stock they they're not offering any absolutely any evidence of that and um you know essentially they're they're lying to you you know by Jacob shanan sunstein Sunshine Jacob shine maybe when the Sho Shiner is giving you tips on stocks it's probably a sign that the market is stopping now the next uh news of today it's Dollar Tree plunging 20% after the Dollar Tree Discounter Cuts full year forecast not looking good here for Dollar Tree and last week uh we are talking before the earnings report of Dollar General sort of uh you know talking a little bit of what these earning reports for uh you know Discounters means for the economy and now we're seeing Dollar Tree plunging Dollar General last week reports were also bad and so we're seeing the the lower end consumer really struggling now let's see a little bit of what they're saying here shares of Dollar Tree f more than 15% in early trading Wednesday after this calendar cut its full year outlook citing increased pressure on middle income and higher income cons customers and let's have a quick look here at the chart of Dollar Tree and you can see it is going straight down here looking bad for Dollar Tree we're on a daily chart here so from the top here that was in March now we're down like 55% so it's been a a bad year for Dollar Tree it's been a bad year for Discounters and of course we're sort of seeing this uh K Sheed economy where you know the irm and uh customer is doing pretty well the higher end consumer is getting you know High return 5% on their cash adding uh to sort of the the money that they have to spend while the lower and consumer is uh getting 20% APR on their credit card and they're already tapped out of cash so of course the lower end is going to be dropping dramatically and here we can see Dollar General now down 24% on the day uh quite dramatic drop here and you know this could be just the beginning if uh the if the unversioned the yield curve turns out to be what uh people seem to think it is and if we're going now into a recession Conclusion and uh we'll have to see but on Friday we're going to have uh the US employment reports and this is going to be you know what's going to move the market now today you know despite this jolt report the market staying you know sort of uh muted not moving really that much up or down despite the news but on Friday 8:30 a.m. us employment report unemployment rate and uh this is going to be the one that's going to move the market we're going to see here we have a expectations which one is the expectations the forecast forecast is the left one so forecast and 161,000 the previous print was 114 are we going to see once again a huge Miss on the US employment report and if we do then uh you can expect some Rea reaction of the market but uh we'll have to wait until Friday 8:30 to see what it is and uh last one here uh the debate between Trump and Harris have agreed on the rule so on September 10th uh next week don't miss out we'll be covering this debate on ABC September 10 uh Trump and Harris will have mics turned off uh when the person is not speaking so no possibility for any of the candidate to sort of fill a buster and prevent the other one from making their argument uh what do they say here they're just talking about the copy of the rule was provided to the Associated Press on Thursday by a senior Trump campaign official in the condition of anity ahead of the Network's announcement the Aries campaign on Thursday insisting it was still discussing the muting of the mics with ABC but uh apparently it's not going to happen we'll have to wait and see anyway thank you guys for watching this video don't forget to subscribe to the channel and don't miss out on our future videos and I will see you on the next one with that like and to the channel Outro Song That like and click theing Bell click that all right the recomends for sure you going like 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