CPI Inflation Report - Interest Rate Cuts Confirmed!

so the CPI inflation report was released today and I'll show you this headline I think it sums up the situation the rate of inflation has now dropped to its lowest level since February of 2021 so this means that the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates in 7 days so I want to show you the official report okay so here's the consumer price index report the CPI this was released on Wednesday September 11th this covers the month of August the report says the rate of inflation is now at 2.5% so again that's the lowest rate in more than 3 years core inflation which does not include food or energy is at 3.2% okay so here's the situation and this is coming from the Federal Reserve so the rate of inflation has been coming down right but at the same time the labor markets has been weakening so when the Federal Reserve has their next meeting they have to make a decision are they going to cut interest rates or not and most likely they will so after the CPI inflation report came out this morning the odds of what they're going to do has changed so I want to show you so this is coming from the CME fed watch tool the next fed meeting is on September 18th so the market expectation is that there's an 85% chance that the Federal Reserve Cuts interest rates by 0.25% at that meeting there's a 15% chance that the Federal Reserve cuts by 0.5% if you've been watching I've been sticking to well my prediction is a 0.25% interest rate cut and it looks like that's what they're going to do so listen I want to tell you this I'm just going to be very direct with you very blunt so we know what the Federal Reserve is going to do it's very straightforward it's very easy to predict because we have all the variables that we need there's really just two of them so the first one is has the rate of inflation been falling and according to their reports the answer is yes so I know that people are going to say oh those those figures are manipulated you know they're not trustworthy so we're not going to get into that today but I hear you I understand the second thing is has the labor markets been weakening and the answer is a clearcut yes so they're going to cut interest rates it's going to start next week but that's just going to be the start so I would say and you know I'm going off their projections as well as what's realistically going to happen they're going to they're going to continue cutting interest rates for at least a year and a half probably two years so that's I would say that's the window so of course there's going to be consequences on many things so that's going to affect inflation the value of the dollar the stock market crypto the housing market mortgage interest rates home prices the economy the labor markets interest rates on savings accounts credit cards auto loans student loans bond yields you know what else am I missing so that's why this is all extremely important the FED pivot the the monetary policy change I've been making videos talking about the consequences and we're going to see big changes in 2025 so there's so much that I want to cover about each one of these topics but of course we're going to have to do it separately in subsequent videos now I want to show you the market expectations of what the FED will do in November it is expected that they're going to cut rates even more in November and here's December the market expects that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut in December and the Federal Reserve projects more interest rate Cuts in 2025 and 2026 so that's a situation now I want to give you the highlights of this inflation report so here are the year-over-year numbers CPI inflation the rate 2.5% that's headline inflation CPI core inflation the rate is at 3.2% energy inflation negative 4.0% food inflation 2.1% Services inflation 4.9% and shelter inflation 5.2% now I want to show you this these are the comments coming out of the Federal Reserve so if you don't believe the market expectations then just take a look at what's coming out of the mouths of the Federal Reserve members the FED president in Chicago Austin gouby said inflation is coming down significantly and the unemployment rates is rising faster it's pretty clear that the path is not just rate Cuts soon but multiple Cuts over the next 12 months so I don't want you to misinterpret that he's not saying that the that the cuts are going to be limited to 12 months he's just saying what they're what they're thinking of doing over the next 12 months now the FED president of Atlanta Raphael bosk said I believe we cannot wait until inflation has actually Fallen all the way to 2% to begin removing restriction because that would risk labor market disruptions that could inflict unnecessary pain and suffering so this one is posted on the Atlanta fed website that's for everyone to see and enjoy Also I do want to bring this up because this was released two days ago by the Federal Reserve the New York Federal Reserve it's their report on microeconomic data so it says that household income is expected to grow by 3.1% over the next 12 months and the household spending is expected to grow by 5.0% over the next 12 months so if you interpret that I mean the way I see it I see that as a bad thing because when your expenses are growing faster than your income that's not good so that's probably why us consumer stress is growing so it's in their report it gives the data the chances of Americans missing a debt payment over the next 3 months is growing so listen I am not fear-mongering I'm simply giving you the information that the Federal Reserve is providing so they are not forecasting sunshine and rainbows I mean I'm not going to spit minutes I think you deserve to know the truth okay now just for fun I need to cover this topic with you because this story is it's gaining more traction it's getting more attention so the rate of inflation has been falling right now the media's outputting stories about the fear of deflation so deflation is when prices start to actually go down so right now we still have inflation so the rate of inflation is falling that's called disinflation but def inflation is when prices actually go down anyways the reason why I'm bringing this to your attention is because if the media and the Federal Reserve they spin it and they say that we're at the threats of deflation do you know what the solution to that problem is it's for the Federal Reserved to print money faster it's for them to intentionally re accelerate inflation so it's basically like oh no like if prices on groceries and basic goods are falling then oh no that's going to really damage GDP so the solution is to print money faster and Spike inflation back up you know it's for the people realistically speaking the Federal Reserve in the government cannot support deflation they will not do it they can't but it's comical because they might use that as an excuse to print money faster I'm just calling them out in advance okay now I'm going to end with this this is my opinion I'll make it really quick so this is how I see it going down the rate Cuts will begin in September so the rate cut Cuts come first and then it'll be followed by quantitative easing QE so this will I when you have a monetary policy like that that's going to undeniably re accelerate inflation it's just a question of how rapidly and when are we going to start to see it right I would say this is my opinion we're not going to see it the re acceleration we're not going to see it immediately because there's a lag time so I would say we're not going to see much of a difference in the rate of inflation for the rest of this year because this year's almost over anyways but we'll probably see it in the back half of 2025 but it's going to be in full swing by 2026 please let me know what you think about this whole situation I look forward to reading your comments Please Subscribe I thank you for the support and I wish you a very nice day take care