New CPI Inflation Report Confirms Rate Cut | Mortgage Rate Outlook, September 14 2024

Published: Sep 14, 2024 Duration: 00:04:20 Category: News & Politics

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the latest inflation numers seal the deal for a Fed rate cut at the FED September meeting the only questions now are how large will the rate cut be and will we see additional rate Cuts before the end of the year let's get into it today's video is a quick update on the latest developments leading up to the FED September meeting the consumer price index report that the government released this September 11th was the last major data point to be released that could impact the fed's decision on rate cuts and the report took away any doubt that a rate cut is coming as of August the year-over-year change for the CPI was 2.5% this was the lowest reading on consumer inflation since March of 2021 we've come a long way since the peak of 9% in June of 20122 this was probably the best inflation report we could have hoped to get before the Fed meeting there's no question now that they will cut their fed funds rate at this September meeting the big questions now are how big will the rate cut be and can we expect further rate Cuts this year with regard to the size of the rate cut many analysts are pointing to the weak jobs report we got in the beginning of September in their case for a large half-point rate cut the idea being that now that inflation is largely under control according to the latest numbers the FED needs to focus on on that Miracle of a soft Landing where they don't push us into recession and Trigger major job losses I covered that latest jobs report in my last video on the US economic situation so make sure you check that out if you haven't already it wasn't a great jobs report job growth was below average and there was a continuation in downward revisions to previous month's estimates the labor market is still adding jobs but the weakness we're seeing is for some making the case for the FED to get somewhat aggressive with their rate cuts to prevent job losses from happening for me I don't think the FED will cut by a half point I think they will cut by just a quarter point the latest economic data supports the idea of a half Point rate cut but the FED has been very careful up to this point and they don't want to risk a Resurgence in inflation by cutting too much too soon remember they disappointed markets earlier this year when they were widely expected to start cutting rates but didn't fed chare pal made it clear that there would be some pain in the labor market in order to bring down inflation so I think they're going to just go with a quartero rate cut and see how the data comes in until their next meeting in November with respect to whether or not we will see more rate Cuts this year all eyes will be looking at the fed's updated economic projections which they will release at the end of their September meeting this will give us some insights into where the committee sees the FED funds rate set settling in by the end of the year I personally think they will pencil in at least one additional rate cup potentially too the below average job growth and continuing trend of downward revisions in the last jobs report was a big warning sign and unless we get amazing jobs reports for the next two months I think at least one more rate cut this year will take place what do you think will the FED get aggressive and rush to rescue of the labor market with some big rate Cuts or will they stay cautious take it slow and so we don't see inflation rise again let me know in the comment section down below if you want to stay up to date on all the developments and my analysis make sure you are subscribed and hit that notification Bell down below I'll be releasing another update video soon after the fed's meeting that wraps up on September 18th if you like the content I put out make sure to hit that like button before you go to support the channel and help it grow thanks for stopping by and I'll see you in the next video [Music]

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