2024 Atlantic hurricane season: NOAA's outlook predicts busy season

Get ready for what is likely to be a very active hurricane season. The new forecast came down from NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and they are also calling for a very busy hurricane season. So the new numbers, the prediction from them, the most aggressive I've that they've ever made since they've been making these predictions here over the last several years, they are anticipating between 17 and 25 named storms. Now, on average, we have 14 storms that achieve tropical storm status. They're expecting 17 to 25. That is a busy year on average. We have seven hurricanes in a season. NOAA is predicting a range of between 8 and 30. Jean. And in an average year, we have three major hurricanes. They're predicting a range between 4 and 7 a year, with seven major hurricanes is extremely, extremely dangerous and busy. Now. Previously we got our update from the forecasters at Colorado State University. Now they focus in on a single number as opposed to a range, but they were calling for 23 named storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. So you'll see that Colorado State and NOAA are both in that same range, calling for a very much above average hurricane season. Now I want to show you a couple of the things that went into why they are anticipating NOAA and CSU and dissipating a above average season. This is one of the main things this area here in the Atlantic Ocean is called the Main Development Region. And this is where you get those big storms forming. I mean, the August and September storms, the so-called Cape Verde season named after these islands, they form in this region. Now, this has been running far warmer than average. This happened last year, by the way, as well, it warms up every year. It is way ahead of schedule on its warming up. And so this main development region is going to have a combination of very much above average sea surface temperatures and also most likely less shear than we usually have. And I want to tell you about that. So out here in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Ecuador and Peru, you have an area here that we look for what's called the El Nino or the La Nina. Now for last year, we were in an El Nino phase, which would actually tend to usually lower the number of storms in the year. That being said, we had 20 named storms last year despite the El Nino. Well, now we're transitioning back to what's called a neutral phase, which means average. There's actually a more than 50% chance, though, that this is going to transition to a La Nina phase, which means this is going to be mostly blue cooler than normal. As we head toward the middle part of the hurricane season. Why is that important? Well, when we have cooler water here near the equator, it creates a weaker jet stream. So the difference between the temperatures of the ocean here near the equator and the temperatures farther to the north, there's less of a difference. And when there's less of a difference in temperatures, you have a weaker jet stream. And a weaker jet stream means less shear in the atmosphere. So if you have less shear storms can grow taller. They can sort of transfer that heat from the ocean into the upper parts of the atmosphere more readily. And as a result, you can have more powerful hurricanes. You could have more common hurricanes. So with all these things sort of adding up together warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the end of the El Nino and the potential start of a La Nina and lower wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. That definitely does favor lots of hurricanes forming this year. What about the names? Well the first name is Alberto, and the reason I hesitated there is that we may see a storm forming before June the first. That's actually been the trend over the last several years. Eight out of the last nine years, we've had a storm forming before June 1st. So Alberto will be the first name on the list this year. Notice that we do skip a few letters here. For example, there's no Q, there's no x, y, or Z, and so you end up with a total of 21 names. Now remember NOAA is predicting between 17 and 25 named storms. So what happens? Well, we used to go to the Greek alphabet. You'll probably remember that where we had a tropical Storm Alpha or a tropical Storm Beta, that's not going to be the case anymore. There is going to be a supplemental list that will come out, that will start with a and then go to B, C, D. We'll have a list that we go to if we get past William, which certainly looks like it may happen. So in all, what I want you to know is we are expecting a very, very busy season. But there are a couple of things that I'd like you to keep in mind. One is that last year we had 20 named storms, and three of those became major hurricanes. None of them posed a threat at all to Texas. In 1983, there were four storms and Texas was pounded by a major hurricane named Hurricane Alicia. So we don't want to get too worried about the exact number of storms. Whether we make it past William or not, we need to be prepared the exact same way every single year. And of course, we will have daily tropical updates for you online on our social