Tropical update: Tropical Storm Warnings issued, latest on Potential Tropical Cyclone #1

All right. Hello to you. And happy Tuesday on Fox 26. Meteorologist. Remission. Shade. And today, of course, it is all about the tropics, particularly the Gulf of Mexico. That's our next big weather maker for the Houston area. Really? Much of the Texas Gulf Coast going to be slammed with heavy rain. The potential for some very strong wind and just rough seas, high tide, high rip current risk. A lot going on, a lot of alerts. So let's get to it. So we are closely tracking and monitoring what's happening out there in the tropics. And so far just about all of the action in the Gulf of Mexico. We've been monitoring this system for the last several days. It's trying to get its act together. Still not quite a tropical storm yet, but it is still being called a potential tropical cyclone number one as of the last 4 p.m. at advisory for this afternoon. It is a very large system, with the wind field basically extending outwards around 400 to 415 miles. So a lot of distance being covered with this system. It's still fairly disorganized though. So those are the key things. It's large, but it's still fairly disorganized. So we still think it will likely become tropical Storm Alberto over the next 24 hours. Likely by the end of the day today or tomorrow. But right now, still a potential tropical cyclone. But you can see the big area of moisture. Those showers and storms out there, very heavy rain. You can see some of those areas of moisture getting closer to our coast across southeast Texas. So we'll continue to monitor this closely. But bottom line is that it is still expected to turn into a tropical storm. And it would be our first tropical storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. And it's going to bring some pretty big impacts to the Houston area and to parts of the Texas Gulf Coast. So here is the latest as of that 4 p.m. advisory. As I said, still a potential tropical cyclone. Number one. And it is moving very slowly. Kind of meandering out there in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Movement to the north, around six miles per hour, maximum sustained winds are still where they were last night. And this morning right around 40mph. So not really seeing much strengthening with this system. We were kind of have to see this broad area of low pressure kind of tighten up a little bit more and get a little stronger, a little more organized. That's why we look like we will likely see that pressure drop and the wind speeds would start to go up. But at this point, still a 40 mile per hour potential tropical cyclone, that movement is to the north. But notice as I track this system, it is going to take a sharper turn to the West, likely over the next 24 hours. So I think by 1 a.m. Wednesday, it's starting to make a northwest turn with 40 mile per hour winds. By Wednesday afternoon, 1 p.m. a little bit stronger, likely 45 mile per hour winds making more of a westerly shift and then by Wednesday night, Thursday morning, likely in the process of making landfall right on that northeastern Mexican coast. So you can see right here Wednesday night, early Thursday morning, right around 1 a.m. Thursday. It is in the process of making landfall just south of the South Texas area. So south of Brownsville, right along that northeastern Mexican coast with 40 to 45 mile per hour winds likely. And it is going to bring a lot of heavy rain and flooding potential to parts of Mexico and also to Texas. So this is the cone or the track, but the impacts from this system will be felt far away from this cone that you see. In fact, a big portion of Central southern Texas, southeastern Texas, going to get those impacts, including that coastal flood threat along the coast across Texas and the potential for several inches of rain and some fairly strong wind gusts out there. So let me show you what's happening locally across the Houston area. You can see that we have quite a bit of rain finally starting to push in. We actually had a decent amount of sunshine earlier today , but those rain bands are starting to reach us and they're becoming more widespread as we expected. You also will notice that there is a flood watch on this map. Notice the area shaded in green down around Rosenberg, Angleton, Lake, Jackson, League City, Galveston, and southeastern portions of Harris County. Still under a flood watch through early Thursday morning. So the flood watch will mean that the potential for that street flooding will be higher. So we certainly will want to keep that in mind. So I'm actually going to step off and give you more details on this flood watch, because I want you to know exactly what is happening with this. So you'll see that down around League City, Galveston, Angleton, there's the flood watch that does include Fort Bend County, Brazoria County. That is, until 1 a.m. on Thursday morning. So we are going to have the potential for the streets to become flooded across the area. So you will want to be very cautious as you're out and about traveling. Now, here's one thing to note with this flood watch, we did have all of Harris County in this flood watch. We also had Austin County, Waller County, and southern portions of Liberty County included in this flood watch. But the latest forecast models have been trending a little bit farther south and west, with that heaviest rain. So the National Weather Service, as of the last hour or so, did take out most of Harris County inland. Harris County was taken out of the flood watch. Also, Austin Waller counties were taken out of that flood watch and southern Liberty County was taken out of the flood watch. But if you are in the coastal areas of Harris County, you are still in that flood watch and all of the other coastal spots League City, Galveston, Chambers County over towards Angleton, Lake Jackson, Bay city, El Campo, Rosenberg. Still dealing with that high potential for the flooded streets, maybe some river flooding. So we still have a lot to look out for. All right, radar, we'll show you that we do have some of those showers building out there right around Pearland, starting to get close to downtown Houston. Just some light to moderate rain at this point. Some heavier downpours coming down around the woodlands and over towards Katy. You are getting some showers, but between now and about 10:00 tonight we are expecting that rain to really start to increase. I think our biggest chance for that very heavy rain will be this evening through the late night hours and into tomorrow morning down towards the coast, Angleton, Lake Jackson, Freeport, dealing with some heavier downpours. These are some of those outer rain bands circulating around our potential tropical cyclone. And that will mean you'll need to keep the rain gear close by. Watch out for any street flooding and just take it easy out there. With the rain coming down, it's going to be difficult to see. It's going to be a slow go. You know, traffic can already be crazy in and around Houston, so you will certainly want to just take your time farther north up around Cold Spring Shepherd, Cleveland Splendora Livingston. More batches of those tropical downpours. Just kind of building and they are pushing off to the north Huntsville, New Waverly, Willis, Conroe, The woodlands basically up and down Interstate 45. We got a decent area of some moderate to heavy rainfall there. Let's jump back to the west of their college station. Giddings getting a few showers, and there's also a little bit of rain for you to deal with over towards Eagle Lake and east of Hallettsville. So notice the trend of the showers. The tropical downpours are starting to increase in coverage and they will likely increase in intensity as well. So we've got the flood threat. The flood threat has gotten a little bit lower for the Houston Metro area, but it is still fairly high down towards the coast. In fact, I think our biggest issues are going to be for our coastal areas. In fact, we do have that rip current statement that will still be in place all the way through 1 a.m. Thursday morning. That means the high risk for those dangerous rip currents will be with us. So if you are planning a trip to the beach this evening, tomorrow evening, even into early Thursday morning, not a good idea at all. My advice? Not a good idea to get in that water at all. It is already pretty rough out right along the coast. Galveston Beach, Jamaica Beach. We've got the high surf, we've got the rough waters, we've got the wind gusts over 30mph for many of these spots. And we've got that very high risk for those rip currents. You know, that rip current can just come out of nowhere and it can just pull you away from shore pretty quickly. And it can be life threatening. We've already had a few fatalities from those rip currents over the last month or two, so certainly we don't need any more of that. So just stay out of the water. Let's just wait a few more days. I think by the weekend conditions will improve a bit, but definitely the next few days. Not a good time to go for a swim at Galveston Beach. Not only do we have the high rip current risk, but we also have the windy conditions and a wind advisory is in place for our coastal areas through 7 a.m. Thursday, so you'll see that includes Galveston, Lake Jackson, down towards Palacios, League City and Baytown. This is the area where we could have some wind gusts around 30 to 40mph. So certainly dealing with some very windy, windy conditions and that potential for some strong wind for our coastal areas. So we've got a lot going on. Here are a few more alerts for you. As if that were not enough, we've got a coastal flood warning for our coastal spots. That's through 7 a.m. Thursday and offshore we do have that tropical storm warning. You can see this area. It does include the coastal waters from High Island to Freeport. And that extends even farther south and west down the coast. So we do have a lot going on. I think the worst of the weather will be right along the coast from this system. That will likely become Tropical Storm Alberto over the next 24 hours. So here are your impacts today. It's breezy out there. We've got the spotty downpours rolling in elevated tide levels for the coast. Heavy rain likely expected for tonight. I think the heaviest of that rain coming in during the overnight hours into tomorrow morning. So this system is still a potential tropical cyclone, but it likely will turn into a tropical storm by tonight or tomorrow. So we've got all of that tropical moisture, the big plume of moisture rolling in. And those showers and storms will likely increase as we go into tonight and tomorrow morning. In fact, I want to show you what you can expect for your Wednesday setup. Widespread rain on the northern side of this area of low pressure will lead to that big flash flood threat. That's going to be our biggest concern from this system. Yes, it's going to produce some windy conditions, but I think the wind for the most part will be manageable. However, it's going to be that threat for that very heavy rain over Houston and areas especially south and west of Houston, that will lead to potentially some big issues. So the heaviest rain likely going to be between Corpus Christi and Brownsville and into eastern parts of Mexico. But even right here in Houston, in southeast Texas, we could still end up with enough rain to cause some problems with that street flooding and just to cause some interruptions to your daily travel and your daily errand running. So keep that in mind. So for that reason, we do still have Fox 26 storm alert days in place. Today is a Fox 26 storm alert day, and Wednesday will be a Fox 26 storm alert day. Main impacts will be those heavy tropical downpours that could just roll up on you in a hurry, dump a lot of rain in a short period of time, and quickly cause some of those streets to flood. We could still have some of those rainfall rates around one, two, maybe three inches per hour. So you certainly need to be aware of that and just be prepared to take action in case you do get under one of those heavy downpours that will lead to a higher flood risk. Also, problems down around the coast. We've got the windy conditions, the risk for rip currents and the threat for that coastal flooding. I've been looking at some pictures and video from the Dickinson area from Galveston. Some of those streets are beginning to flood because we've got that higher risk for flooding right along the coast so that coastal flood warning will stick around through Thursday morning. All right. What's going to happen for the next day or two? Futurecast will try to paint the picture for you hour by hour. Notice around 9 p.m. tonight, the main batch of that widespread heavy rain rolling into the area. It's coming in from the Gulf. And notice those yellows, oranges and reds indicating those heavy downpours pushing in during the overnight hours. So I think between 9 p.m. tonight and 5 a.m. tomorrow morning, you can see some of the heaviest rain over the woodlands. Katy down to Houston, Rosenberg, Bay city, Lake Jackson and Palacios. It looks like we can get another wave, most likely for the late morning into lunchtime for your Wednesday from Houston League City all the way down to Lake Jackson and back towards Bay City and El Campo by Wednesday afternoon, still dealing with some of these scattered tropical downpours. But I think by Wednesday night the system will start to take more of a westerly turn and that will take the majority of that heavy rain to the west of Houston. So I think the worst of it is this evening through Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday night, things should start to improve a little bit for us, as the heaviest of that rain starts to shift into south central Texas and southern portions of Texas. So that would be over towards San Antonio, Kerrville, Victoria, Corpus Christi. That's the bull's eye for the very heavy rain. Those are some spots that could pick up around ten plus inches of rain from this system. We were thinking we could be a part of that a day or two ago, but right now it does appear that our shot for several inches of rain for Houston at least, has certainly gone down. So that is some good news. We've dealt with enough flooding issues this year. It has been a super busy weather year, and we could certainly use a break, so we're still going to get some rain in Houston. However, I think the majority of that heavy rain and the most significant flooding likely going to stay to the south and west of Houston. So here's your rain timeline for the next five days. Still a 90% chance for rain for your Wednesday, so plan on things being soaked and soggy for much of the day, especially Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon rain chances dropping to about 60% for Thursday and around 50% for Friday. We will keep that 30% chance for rain in the forecast for your weekend plan Saturday and Sunday, but at least it's only a 30% chance. I know a lot of pools have opened up over the last few weeks. You want to get out, have a little fun, maybe take a dip, take a splash. You will have more dry time for this weekend to do that across the Houston area, but we've got to get through tonight and Wednesday. That's when the flood threat remains on the high side. In fact, we've got four categories for our flash flood risk and Houston down to the coast remains in that three out of four moderate risk for that street flooding through tonight. So I think the heaviest of this rain will likely be a little south of Houston. But there could still be some problems with street flooding in Houston. You know, it only takes 1 to 2in of rain to quickly come down in the Houston area to cause major problems with those flooded streets. So just be careful out there if you are going to be out and about this evening and tonight. Flood risk for tomorrow has updated. Now, we were in that red category. This is for Wednesday. But now they have shifted us out of that three out of four risk. It looks like the heaviest rain for Wednesday will likely be down around El Campo Bay city, Palacios, Edna. Now we are still in that two out of four. Slight risk for that flash flooding for your Wednesday. But at least it looks like things are not going to be quite as bad as we were anticipating. With the models trending with that heaviest rain a little bit farther to the south and west, woodlands Liberty up towards College Station and Huntsville. You're in the lowest one out of five marginal risk for that street flooding for Wednesday. So what are we expecting as far as rain totals? This is looking through Saturday. So today through Saturday notice these totals have decreased a little bit since yesterday. And the day before. It looks like once again that heaviest rain will stay to our south and west. But I am thinking between 1 to 2in of rain over the next couple of days, stretching from Navasota through the woodlands, Cypress Atascocita northern parts of Houston. Now if you live in southern parts of Houston, Sugar Land, Pearland, down towards Alvin, Katy, Eagle Lake, el Campo, you're going to have a higher shot for the two three four inch rain totals over the next few days. Where will the heaviest rain be? Well, that is shifted even farther south and west, so I think we're still in for the possibility for 4 to 7in down around Victoria. Maybe parts of Edna, Bay City and Port Lavaca, but that is definitely going to stay south and west of the Houston area. Even bigger rain totals are going to be likely down around Beeville, Rockport, down around Corpus Christi, all the way down to Brownsville. Those are some spots that could pick up seven, eight, nine, maybe ten inches of rain. So we got a lot to talk about. Let's break down your Galveston forecast. Like I said, not a great time at all to be heading out to the beach. You want to stay away from the beaches the next couple of days for Galveston between 6 to 10 p.m, temperatures warm and steamy in the 80s, but there will be scattered tropical downpours. Maybe a few thunderstorms mixing in so there could be more coastal flooding. Of course, we've got that coastal flood warning in place. It's going to be downright windy. Wind gusts near 40mph. Wind advisory in place as well. And the threat for those dangerous rip currents rip current risk remains on the high side. So stay away from the beaches if you can. I know you u want to get that beach time in, but today definitely not the best time to do that. And tomorrow won't be a great time either. I think by the weekend things will start to improve a bit, but I just mentioned how windy it was down around the Galveston Beach area. Notice sustained wind in Galveston 24mph wind gusts around 30 to 35mph. At this time. We've actually got a wind gusts right at 35mph out at Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport. So it's basically getting windy everywhere. This this potential tropical cyclone has a huge wind field. So we're going to get the wind farther inland. We're going to get it at the coast. But just keep in mind that we're not expecting 70, 80, 90, 100 mile per hour destructive winds, but there could be some wind gusts anywhere from 30 close to 40mph. So that's about all that I have for you, for your tropical update, your local weather update. Bottom line, we will have impacts from what will likely become Tropical Storm Alberto over the next 24 hours, right here in the Houston area and for much of central and southern portions of Texas, you can plan on heavy rain flooding that may lead to some flight delays. If you're traveling in the car, you may run into some flooded streets and just a lot of coastal flooding. Windy conditions, high surf, high tide, rough seas for our coastal locations. So of course we do these updates every day during hurricane season. Keep checking back. Of course we are expecting this system to become our first tropical storm of the season, and when that happens, we'll have another update for you. But that will likely happen before tomorrow afternoon. So of course we will have the latest. Make sure to have our Fox 26 weather app downloaded on your phone. Whether you have an Android phone iPhone, just head to the app Store, search for Fox 26 and you can get any information on weather wise that you need. You'll have it right at your fingertips. Also don't forget download Fox Local. All you have to do is go to your smart TV's App store, search for Fox Local. Tons of weather content there. We've got our new weather show forecasting with friends. We've got Mondays with Mike. You can learn how to prepare for hurricane season. 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