NFL WEEK 2 | THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING PICK & ANALYSIS BY PhD in STATS #nflweek2

Published: Sep 10, 2024 Duration: 00:06:42 Category: Sports

Tags : Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins nfl picks nfl predictions top nfl picks nfl betting sports betting 2024 season free picks free nfl picks Thursday Night Football Week 2 betting systems professor mj winning picks nfl picks against the spread nfl props nfl spreads free nfl betting tips

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Before I present my pick on the great AFC East division duel between the Bills and the Dolphins on Thursday night for Week 2 of the 2024 regular season, let me mention something important. The easiest lines to beat in the NFL are the proposition bets, also called prop bets. For example, will Player X catch more or less than 5.5 passes, or will a specific QB throw an interception or not? Betting NFL point spreads is fun, but if your main goal is to make money, then the way to go are prop bets. As simple as that. There is a reason why sportsbooks will be glad to accept your 10,000-dollar bet on point spreads, while they may limit you to a few hundred dollars on prop bets. They know their lines are vulnerable and easier to beat by smart sports bettors. Think about it. Millions of sports bettors are looking at point spreads and totals. Do you really expect to find a line that’s too high relative to its probability of winning? Meanwhile, A LOT fewer people pay attention to the large number of prop bets offered on each game. There are bargains available each week. I have been refining a mathematical model over the past 20 years, and it has produced ton of profit over time. Last year, I shared a total of 144 prop bets in the NFL, and those plays generated a +9.0% return on investment. In the Monday night game between the Jets and the 49ers, I offered you all a gold package where I shared my top 3 prop bets on the game. I even gave a full guarantee where you’d get your money back if we finished with a negative record. The guarantee wasn’t necessary since we swept the board by posting a perfect 3-0 record on those plays. You can see what those plays were on your screen right now. I am offering the exact same product for the Bills-Dolphins game. Again, if you want to grow your bankroll, you’ve got to go with the prop bets route. You can bet point spreads for fun and to entertain you, but if you want to earn extra income to travel, or to have the equivalent of a free rent or mortgage payment, then your focus should be on prop bets. The link to this exclusive gold package can be found below in the comments section. You will receive the 3 best prop best for that game, all backed by solid data, and like I said earlier they are backed by a solid moneyback guarantee. All right, let’s now dive into the discussion of whether I feel like it is best to bet the Bills or the Dolphins. That’s clearly not as good a bet as prop bets are, but it’s always fun to make such picks, right? A lot has been said about Josh Allen owning the Dolphins. During his past 12 meetings with Miami, Allen and the Bills have posted a stellar 11-1 record, and the only loss was by a margin of just two points. The Bills superstar has tossed at least 2 touchdown passes in 13 straight games against this opponent. Still, I would tend to back the Dolphins in this game. In other words, my official betting pick goes to Miami -2.5 points against Buffalo in the Thursday night game in Week #2. Coach McDaniel has enjoyed great success in the early part of the season. Indeed, his team owns a perfect 7-0 record in the first three weeks of the regular season. It is also worth noting that Miami has won its past 10 games as home favorites when squaring off against AFC East rivals. Unlike the Bills, the Dolphins did not have to travel on short rest. In my opinion, Miami also has fewer question marks roster-wise. For example, the Bills are still trying to figure out who their #1 target is. Will it be Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir or rookie Keon Coleman? Last week, Josh Allen spread the ball around, and he may do the same in this game. The Bills have a new-look secondary, and I’m afraid they could struggle against Miami’s great receivers. Both starters at the safety position are gone, while cornerback Tre’Davious White now plays for the Rams. It might take time before the secondary plays great as a group. Josh Allen hurt his non-throwing hand last week. Could that be a problem in terms of ball security? Could he be more likely to fumble when he runs with the football? That is a possibility. So, in the end, I am leaning towards the Dolphins to win this game by a margin of at least three points at Hard Rock Stadium. That’s my official pick on the spread, but as stated earlier money is made on prop bets, so I invite you once again to grab the exclusive gold package that will get you to receive the top 3 prop bets on that game. Following those plays makes the game a lot more exciting as well! I’m Professor MJ, a 15-year university statistics teacher from Quebec City in Canada, enjoy the game my bunch of bookie crushers!

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