Chiefs vs Ravens Best NFL Bets, Picks & Predictions | Week 1 TNF

I think it's fair to say the schedule makers nailed it for week one Friday I mean the Brazil thing is is ridiculous but still Eagles Packers Sunday night Rams Lions Monday night Aaron roders and the Jets against Brock party and the 49ers and for Thursday Night Football we return for the 2024 season getting the Baltimore Ravens at the Kansas City Chiefs you can't beat that I'm Dave Locker on Twitter at lafiore D hit me up for any other news bets analysis throughout the season and we're talking Thursday Night Football to open up the year that's about it to open up this video we're going to dive straight in the picks and here's what we're going to do I'm going to give you a side I'm going to give you a prop I'm going to give you a touchdown and I'm also going to give you a long shot I wish there was a better acronym for that but there's no vs there so it's a side it's a prop it's a touchdown it's a long shot hit that thumbs up subscribe to the channel and let's get it going all right so you look at this game pretty much across the board the Chiefs are three-point favorite right I have a bit of a lean here a bit of an angle but I'll never lie to you guys if a game is difficult right you know never and especially when you get these Island games these Prime Time games it's not like well let's fade this one and choose one of the other 15 no we got one game to talk about so here's what here's what I'm well let's do the analysis and then we'll dive into this but John Harbaugh is a tough guy to bet against in week one he's 12- four against the spread okay but then you look at a guy in Andy Reid since he came over to Kansas City he's seven and3 against the spread nine and one straight up and the only loss that this guy had straight up was last year against the Lions and if you remember that game I'm pretty sure all of us do and can can we not just blame cadarius Tony for that this team dropped passes left and right that's that just the whole game was just Kansas City should have won they didn't and look credit to the Lions they're a good football team but they had every opportunity to win that game the drops the deflected balls on on passes in their hands going for interceptions all of that was gross but now you look at this spot and you go all right well you lost lerus sne you lost Willie gay but still a highly talented secondary fantastic defensive line Elite offense that now add Xavier worthy will get to him later even without Hollywood Brown you have Rashi rice who's excellent after the catch Travis Kelce Xavier worthy who's a burner you know you've seen comparisons to Tyreek Hill he's the fastest guy in the league and then Isaiah Pacho in the backfield and let's not forget Patrick Mahomes on the other side great defense for Baltimore hands down one of the best secondaries in the league as long as Marlon Humphrey and the rest of those guys are back there it's going to be great good defensive like this team is stacked you lose Mike McDonald but this is the type of team that we've seen over the years you could kind of plug whoever you want in a defensive coordinator and they're probably still going to be good as long as Harbaugh's there so I look at it like this offensively sure Lamar Jackson Z flowers they they they don't have a ton as far far as like wide receiver two wide receiver three Rashad baitman still hasn't done anything in this league but Mark Andrews is a stud it'll be interesting to see if they're using more two tight end sets with Isaiah likeley because he's super talented and now you've got Derrick Henry in the back field as well I think it makes a difference I don't know how big of a difference though this is what I'm doing because look the only thing worse than betting against Harbaugh is betting against Patrick moles you know every time you do it doesn't work out and you'd be like well yeah but Mahomes as a favorite against the spread hasn't been good sure but it's usually when he's a big favorite right this is three points so what I'm going to do here with them at home knowing what Andy read is done in week one as long as these guys can catch DraftKings has minus two and a half so two and a hook at minus 120 I don't mind paying a little bit extra for that to get inside of a field goal because I 100% anticipate this being a really close game all right let's get to a prop here no props that I'm in love with but I do like this one there's going to be weeks where're like listen Hammer this prop but with this one rashy Rice under 21 a half longest reception and here's why the average depth of Target for rice last year was 5.2 yards all right and he only saw six deep targets all year he caught one of them it was a long one it was like 67 yards but only one of them on six targets he does all of his damage after the catch which can go for 21 plus 22 yards for sure he dominated in that Arena last season but all of those games where he had you know north of 21 plus yards on a on a on longest reception they were all against inferior opponents he did it 43% of the time in the regular season the Ravens defense is not inferior they swarm the ball they can tackle they also allowed the second fewest yards per reception on the year not to mention Xavier worthy coming into this offense is just another he's the guy when Hollywood Brown comes back too but he's out to take the top off so I don't anticipate seeing those long passes for for for rashy Rice what I anticipate here is if he does get there it's but it's going to be for missed tackles and yards after the catch not getting targets downfield so I get you all of these plays guys on on a Thursday or you know on a Wednesday night for all of the Sunday games Monday for Monday I do however have a premium Marketplace package over at odd Shopper where you're getting number one all of the plays straight to your phone just push notifications everything in premium Discord is well an awesome community that we're building over there and on top of that I'm getting the plays out way earlier right I can't do that on YouTube but I can do it there I'm getting the plays out super early so we're beating the closing line getting that closing line value we're also along the way getting some ridiculously solid ladder plays in there parlays lotto tickets because what fun is betting if we can't actually have some fun with it along the way while grinding out a profit on these straight bets that's the way to do it so if you're looking for an awesome Community if you're looking for bets straight to your phone you're looking to have an awesome NFL season check that link in the description and in the pin comment it's 50% off for anyone trying this for their first week meaning less than five bucks if you want to sign up for a week and under 15 for the entirety of the month so come say what's up hit me up in the Discord and we'll see you guys over there talk a touchdown prop here Derek Henry look I gotta go I got to do it okay minus 115 on beta ESPN they don't really let me bet much over there but ESPN if you're there is the best spot aside from that DraftKings MGM fandel all have minus 125 it's easy to look at Baltimore and people do this all the time and just be like well Lamar's gonna snipe all of the touchdowns not really true last year Gus Edwards had more goal line carries than anyone in the entire league and if you don't include a quarterback in Jaylen Herz no one had more goal line touchdowns than Gus Edwards either with 12 Lamar had five runs five rushing attempts inside the five all season Edwards saw 30 attempts inside the 10 he had 64% of all goal line attempts for that team and almost 50% inside the 10 yard line so there's just no reason to believe Henry isn't getting the large majority of them in week one touchdown give me Derek Henry minus 125 and it's time for the long shot we've all been waiting for this right we have to do this we we have to because if it doesn't hit it's no big deal you put a small play on it and I have I I have an angle here so hear me out Xavier worthy most most receiving yards at plus 600 all right so check this out it's clearly a long shot right that's why we're doing this CU we don't know entirely what Xavier Worthy's role is going to be but he was heavily utilized in week two of the preseason and and I say that because he was out there with Patrick Mahomes they only had two drives with the starters worthy only had two drives while Mahomes was out there and he had three for 62 on six targets and a touchdown four of those targets came from Patrick Mahomes one of them was 39 yard reception two of them were targets downfield as deep targets and then the other two were two receptions on a three-play touchdown Drive which was his touchdown from Carson went I think he's and clearly it was against Detroit backups but you get what I'm saying here I think he could be used heavily out of the gate Hollywood Brown isn't going to be there um rice and Kelce aren't exactly vertical threats and I'd rather make a small play on worthy right make a small play on worthy at six to one to have the most receiving yards in this game between two really good defenses right where you just not might not see a ton of receiving yards combined um then then bet him to go over 45 yards or over three and a half receptions because with the volatility in his role coming into week one as a rookie we don't know what it's going to look like so I'd rather him finish one for 15 and not win a quarter unit play at plus 600 then bet over three and a half receptions and over 45 yards and get the same result and now you're down you know one or two units so look if he takes the top off and we're talking about two quality defenses if he takes the top off um it may only be like one or two receptions to where you go hey we got this Xavier worthy 6 to one appreciate you guys hanging out as always remember check me out over on Twitter and if you want to come hang out in the marketplace get some great bets every single week I've been flowing them in there for days now and it'll be the same we're getting them in early and we're winning bets over there in the Discord in the marketplace link is down there in the description and I appreciate you guys hanging out as always peace [Music]