NFL Picks Week 2 Bills-Dolphins Thursday Night Football (9/12) | Lindy's NFL Locks

Intro what's going on everybody Eric linquist at stochastic here on the odd Chopper Channel coming to with another Thursday Night Football edition of Lindy's leans likes and locks hit that like button subscribe button notification Bell goes a long way for me on this video goes a long way for you that way you become become a prized whenever great content is going live here at our Little Neck of the YouTube woods man Christian mcaffrey ends up sitting out that under ends up getting voided Debo Samuel goes way over that was the whole intention was hoping he was going to be limited but no he ends up out the line down a point to three three and a half basically there from the plus four and a half plus four that were existing across the marketplace before that well gu running backs don't matter when Jordan Mason is the truth that was absolutely wild to watch Jets never stood a chance that sucked but overall a really nice weekend backing dogs there three and0 we were uh on the videos and well in the Discord as well ended up on Pittsburgh plus 4 after the fields news moved that ended up taking Arizona when they moved to six and a half and then also Denver six and a half it's a numbers game friends price probability that's what we're about and hey if you want to tell all of my plays and hey we had Bree Hall over 24 and a half there close to 29 and a half he goes way over his receiving so that was good in the premium Discord as well that is now called Tales by odd Shopper if you want to join my premium Discord if you want to join the marketplace use promo code Lindy 50 Lindy 50 gets you 50% off your first week or your first month of my package and then you get to hang out on the premium Discord and talk through the plays talk through process talk through some what I'm doing as far as simul in out NFL games and well $10 for your first week 25 for your first month using Code Lindy 5 check that out down at the link below but we've got a huge football game here on Thursday Bills vs Dolphins night uh craziness in Tyreek Hill's life over the course of the weekend uh and then a bunch of just insane stuff here in terms of snap counts I think on the Buffalo side we'll get into the ins and outs of it but without further Ado producer Jacob let's get to the picks here we go friends it's time to party yes oh make sure that everybody can see beautiful Tales logo here we are let's ride we've got Buffalo plus two and a half the prevailing number across the industry right now Miami there are it was a really weird game to watch took a breakaway early second half touchdown there uh from Tyreek Hill absolute bomb there craziest touchdown celebration you'll see all year no matter what the Handcuff celebration it was incredible but what was not incredible was yeah the everything that came before it but any who we are here to talk sports betting and we're here to talk the ins and outs of this football game and I do think Miami defensively could have looked a lot better overall as I look through some of the the specific numbers uh in that spot against Jacksonville did a good job at containing when it mattered when it mattered most that fourth quarter found some ways some interesting defensive fronts and and finally found themselves onto some winning ways towards the end and also helps to have a field goal kicker make a 50 plus yard there were a lot of those over the weekend including my Iowa State Cyclones so shout out that the shawk trophy pack and AES where it belongs but I think for this game there are a ton of props that are intriguing because the huge news Raheem moart as of recording this was ruled out Raheem moer will not be playing football as for Devon aan I recorded these the night before so keep that in mind you are not going to know oh I'm not going to know what happens with Devon hhan but it is definitely going to affect my analysis here and there's already some crazy price price discrepancies that exist in the marketplace as a result of that so you have to be paying attention to that one if he ends up playing there's certain plays that might get downgraded as we start breaking it down but just remind the people leans likes locks leans those are things I'm thinking about betting likes those are things that I have bet already and those are generally around a half unit and then the locks this one is a full unit lock for me yet again one unit on the lock play here of the day but uh let's just kind of break into it shall we or break break it down I don't speak so good uh we're g to jump over to passing yards in couple of capacities here right off the bat Josh Allen touchdown Josh Allen he was crazy good against Arizona and Arizona hey they covered the six and a half for me that's what I was looking for but defensively I don't have a whole lot of Hope for them this season I I think they're going to be a team that has shootout after shootout after shootout out and Josh Allen special stuff he ends up carrying the ball nine times he's diving at the goal line non-stop two touchdowns there did lose a fumble in the process but throws for two runs for two Josh Allen I think it's just a little bit too long of odds here at the moment as I look at uh look at the board it's it's just going to probably be a pass with a minus sign in front of him for the quarterback on the road in Miami but to a tug of aloa this is something that I'm just having a tough time for because of Wadd and potentially aan lining up his a wide receiver here if he is active for this one we're starting to see Miami and and that McDaniel offense it's got so many intricacies it's got so many things and before I really dig into the data of it I kind of want to see it in play on a Thursday night on a short week uh with those two main wide receivers I mean Tyreek Hill and Jaylen water are just gonna have massive massive years but T to a ofo at 271 and a half this is closer to efficient I thought about it I've got him closer to 260 but that's not a huge range I I'm looking for about 14 15 yards which leads us in to the like section here where I think one of my favorite plays of the entire game Josh Allen under 248 and a half passing yards I don't see him being somebody who throws for a high high allotment of yards Curtis Samuel barely on the field 27% of snaps 27% of snaps this was somebody that they acquired from Washington to be that kind of go-to guy but clear Shakira Shakira ends up on the field a lot more d can never left the field and then Keon Coleman still played less than two-thirds of the snaps but the wide receiver who was out there the most obviously Buffalo likes themselves a little 12 we'll see how they go up against Miami in their front I think schematically you might have to do some different things Arizona Trading away Simmons and basically just kind of casting off any resemblance of a defense so it's hard to really say that Buffalo is this or that all I know is that James Cook he's going to get goal line poached a lot by Josh Allen and that is what it is but speaking of Curtis Samuel snap counts this is a big part of what you want to be doing is you want to be reacting to those rather than what the perceived perception of a player is a guy like Jaylen McMillan for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers he was on the field the third most amongst wide receiver rookies north of 80% of the snaps yes he's the wide receiver three in Tampa yes he dropped another touchdown could have had a two touchdown outing potentially and been one of your top waiver wire things but for me route participation for rookies is very very important Coleman was on the field more than 60% of the time which you can't was a little bit surprising to me but not as surprising as 27% of the snaps for Curtis Samuel I think there's another prop that actually my buddy DK DFS threw out on X you can follow him at dkor DFS over on X but uh less than receiving uh longest reception under 13 and a half receiving yards it's moved to 12 and a half pretty much everywhere there are some 11 and a halfs on Curtis Samuel there but I prefer plus money on under one and a half receptions I don't see him on the field over khil Shakir obviously there's the familiarity that he has with Josh Allen and Curtis Samuel I'm not sure if you know it's starting to be washed up but I mean he was a volume receiver Once Upon a Time short ADOT guy I think you could look at the combo of the two but I prefer the under of one and a half receptions considering plus 129 at Caesars and hey wouldn't you know it if you want to Parlay these two I don't hate it I don't entirely hate it both of these best available at se minus 101 on Josh Allen under 248 a half passing yards I repeat 232 that he had against Arizona in an absolute shootout they did have to come from behind uh after an early deficit in that game I don't think they throw it as much even in competitive spots plus Miami you look at the secondary Ramsay and such it's a little bit more improved than that on the other side that they faced last week Kendall Fuller that that's who I was thinking of at the top of my head too any who before we get to the lock section just going to remind you Lindy 50 that gets you 50% off jumping in that premium Discord I am still posting baseball all the live long day NFL picks oh yeah we're GNA have all of those for week one including NFL Lindy coming to you on Friday four Sundays Sate games and then of course the Monday Night Football one as well but 50% off for that Marketplace it now has a name it is Tales by odd Shopper that's the logo behind me and if you would like to join and hang out with me and a bunch of other sharp people in that Marketplace $9.95 for your first week $24.95 for your first month Lindy 50 all righty y'all to the lock we go oh daring oh boy the big news obviously Raheem moer ends up getting ruled out and this is somebody that last season set the world on fire with over 20 touchdowns constant constant uh usage in the goal line situations and sure Devon ichan came along later in the year well you know early on in the year but really was efficient in in minimal touches took a lot of work away there re muster wasn't on the field a ton six six carries nine yards there wasn't efficient he had three receptions or two two receptions three targets over the course of that one but he's out with a chest injury for this football game Devon Anan has been Limited in practice here he did go through practice on Wednesday to some extent but he's considered a game time decision for this one and I have no qualms about who will end up being the bellowback if that ends up being the case if you have Devon Anan off of this field now even at the current numbers I think you're going to see some type of limitations on Devon H and potentially playing a little bit of wide receiver because that's kind of what we saw last time but I know that a lot of people picked up Jaylen Wright and stored him for a situation like this the presumed wide receiver three Eric they used fourth round draft equity on him you know what a fourth round draft equity for a running back looks like nothing you could end up getting cut next year and it would not surprised me although Jaylen Wright has a little bit of a he's got a little bit of spin in the tires I I like Jaylen Wright but not not as much as I like Jeff Wilson Jr this guy comes from the San Francisco Mike MCD the same thing McDaniel came along for the ride he brought his dudes over Raheem moard and Jeff Wilson Jr and he stayed around and Jeff Wilson Jr was on the field enough there in week one that it presumes to me that he is going to have way more work than Jaylen Wright right out of the gates so it was a little surprising to see everybody head to the waiver wire to pick up Jaylen Wright I could be wrong about this but I don't think so we're g plus money still for a guy that if you get ruled out Devon Anan this will be north of minus 160 minus 170 because Miami at the goal line that's how they handle things small wide receivers Tyreek Hill yeah you can do misdirection you could do you know a bunch of play schemes there but it is about beating it into the other side of the team and buffalo's defense did not impress me in any way shape or form that defensive line everybody outside of Greg rosu uh they are brutality in terms of PFF grading Vanessa Jones Oliver Bernard Williams at the linebacker position I mean just awful stuff at the goal line Jeff Wilson is plus 105 over at DraftKings he is minus 165 at FanDuel don't send me your FanDuel tickets have a plus money in front of this and lock it in as long as you do bet this as soon as you hear it if you hear Devon H Chan is out because or it's going to be too late you you need to bet it now because then if Devon H gets ruled out it's going to be too late it's it's going to be M major minus money everywhere I think I explained that okay and that does it for another edition of Lindy's leans likes and locks you know what to do go to that comment section below let me know your favorite props and plays that exist on this massive uh Thursday night football game again 48 and a half total uh looked at the total looked at a lot of the other things I think props are really the way you want to play this one actually made me play I'd be looking at an over here I think there'll be some offense although I'm looking at the Josh Allen under passing attempts and under obviously passing yards I already bet that one but Tails check that out at the link below 50% off promo code Lindy five thank you producer Jacob until the massive week one we have so much to talk about a lot of day to come through I'm Eric linquist best of luck in the NFL streets for Thursday Night Football