Can Kamala Harris win the US election? | ABC News

I'm struck by the extraordinary history of this moment a sitting president in self-isolation because of covid announcing in a letter that he would not seek reelection um I think this was the direction of travel ever since that debate performance with Donald Trump ever since the first 15 minutes of that debate performance with Donald Trump when it became clear uh that his cognitive decline was going to be a big problem and that Democrats would uh Express deep concerns and of course one of the first people to do that was the former ha speaker Nancy Pelosi going on a program called Morning Joe which is one of Joe Biden's favorite political talk shows and suggesting that he should make up his decision quickly about whether he should seek re-election that opened the floodgates Lisa um Nancy P's daughter once famously said that her mom can take off somebody's head without them even realizing it but Joe Biden would have realized in that moment uh that there was a critical mass of senior Democrats who were very worried about his chances of reelection and wanted him to stand down and in the last uh week or so we've seen that happen uh the Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer meeting Joe bid at rovi Beach and telling him the polling was terrible Nancy Pelosi expressing that message herself hackim Jeff who's the most senior a democrat in the House of Representatives also telling uh Joe Biden that his Chan of re-election was so poor and amidst all that there was no real support coming from people like Barack Obama or Bill Clinton coming out and saying you cannot say to a sitting president they have to step aside their silent spoke volumes so when those stories emerged at the end of last week that Joe Biden was considering this and that the decision would come maybe as soon as the weekend well that's exactly what's happened what are these strengths that carela Harris will be taking forward as she uh May very well have to fight to become the nominee well I think her main strength at the moment is she's not Joe Biden uh and she's not 81 years old and people aren't questioning her capabilities of actually being able to perform the task of of President which obviously were questions that were being raised about Joe Biden but Lisa one of the reasons why he decided to seek reelection one of the reasons why he stayed around for so long was his concerns that carala Harris was not electable that she would face misogyny that she would face racism when he himself faced her in the Democratic primaries uh back in 2019 20120 she wasn't a very strong candidate indeed she didn't even make it as far as 2020 she pulled out in 2019 and I think Joe Biden even though he selected her as his vice president he was worried uh that she had the ability to actually win election against Donald Trump um her strengths well um she is younger obviously um she's more Dynamic um in recent weeks ever since that poor performance by Joe Biden people have been struck by her improved performances as vice president uh but the Democrats clearly had to do something dramatic but I think it's interesting um Lisa that in their remarks so far people like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer aren't endorsing carela Harris in the same way that Joe Biden did um so emphatically minutes after he n his withdrawal from the race uh what does this mean for Donald Trump I see that he's already talking about uh if Biden's not fit to run for president he's not fit for to serve for president so he's still got him in his sights even though Joe Biden has said that he won't be running yeah I think this is a crucial moment for Donald Trump but at the moment he's showing his usual gracelessness I mean all this idea that Trump had changed after the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania I was very skeptical about this at the time I'd seen him during Co and didn't change them when he had a near-death experience and when CNN contacted him minutes after the news uh from rith Beach that Biden was uh pulling out of the race I mean he just described him instantly as the worst president in the history of the American Republic now that is not a particularly graceful way to deal with the departure of somebody who has served America in the manner of Joe Biden and I think they could really play this very badly if if they try and blast Joe Biden out of the White House I think that could be a Grand swell of of sympathy around Joe Biden you know and it's not the kind of rusting on voters that matter here of course Lisa it's the waving voters uh those who haven't yet made up their mind there aren't that many of them but they are the critical demographic in this election they're going to be looking at this moment they're going to be looking how Donald Trump reacts to it and um if he continues along this path of sort of blasting Joe Biden and being very graceless about it I think that could damage him amongst those wavering voters especially sort of suburban women who tend to decide presidential elections and just stepping back Nick finally you've written uh about the US not just the politics the the culture the society over many years uh we started this conversation with you saying that it was an extraordinary time but it is it I the shock of it we're not even up to two hours yet since the announcement was made by Joe Biden have you ever seen anything like this well we have seen something like it before in 1952 Harry Truman um decided not to seek a re-election and and the Republicans won in that year that was the first victory of um Eisenhower in 1968 in March of course uh Linda Baines Johnson decided to step aside his Vice President cuber Humphrey ended up uh fighting that 1968 election and of course he lost up against Richard Nixon winning his first Victory uh but there's another history as well that comes into play which is American voters tend to punish presidents who are perceived to be weak or frail that happened to Jimmy Carter in 1976 he ended up being a a one-term president after Reagan beat him in 1980 it happened as well with George Herbert Walker Bush in the 1992 election when he was defeated by Bill Clinton there were just a lot of American voters who just thought that George Herbert Walker Bush had done his Dash that he was too old to be president and I think Joe Biden would have faced that as well I do think that debate performance had made him virtually unelectable the Democrats needed something dramatic to happen in the aftermath of the uh debate performance to change the narrative and of course it did but it happened to Donald Trump with that uh near ass that that that assassination attempt um so I do think electorally for the Democrats Joe Biden has done the right thing the question is whether Kamala Harris is the right candidate to beat Donald Trump 24 days since that debate an extraordinary 24 days Nick Bryant so great to have you analysis this morning thank you you're welcome