so we are 3 days removed from the presidential debate and that means that the new polls include and this is Michigan but the new polls in all include data that was only taken after the debate so we can look at the responses to the debate in the polling and see how it matches up so we will start with the Min post one and that has haris up by five and we go to Minnesota we see that Harris in their last poll this this Poster's last poll was up by four so she's improved by one that could be margin of error but it's you know is it under five points no I don't think so I think it will probably be seven at the end of the day if I was going to make a guess now so you probably have that staying as likely uh Democrat we look at Michigan so this is the interesting One Michigan we always said that if Harris was going to win any of the seven it was going to be Michigan now it's not looking like that's the case because you go to Michigan now and you look at the polling Insider Advantage which was the best Michigan poster last time has Trump up by one Mitchell has a tie in the head-to-head but in the multi candidate Harris is still up but this is momentum now shifting and that's not reflected in 538 because they don't include uh well they did include they haven't included the Mitchell one oh no this is the Mitchell one okay uh this mitual one then was taken before the poll so that oh before the debate so that means that actually this is trending towards Trump and Trump now leads in Michigan if you're of course going to trust this one pole which we can't really do but it's a good sign of the trends to be honest and this the again we see the Gap it was you know we got to the middle of August this is Harris at our best 3.4 and it's only closed and closed and closed and now it's getting very close indeed so we'll see how that one turns out I but it's looking like Michigan's back to a tilt it's not a lean anymore it's a tilt you look at the national ones okay so we can get straight into this reiters which is a pretty terrible puler in terms of its favorability towards Democrats and Harris is up by five which would win her the election New York Post has haris up by three which should win the election but of course Donald Trump doesn't normally in 2016 he didn't win the popular vote and uh he won the election in 2020 he definitely didn't win the popular vote but but he got very close he was within you know 40,000 votes across the three states that he needed look at rasmuson which of course are going to favor Trump and they have him up by two which of course he would win in that case and you look at morning consult and they have Harris up by five which again is a Democrat leaning poer or not even leaning a Democrat 90 degree poster they are not leaning they are completely sideways so really we can't take away a lot from that because it's a lot of um pollsters with certain interests in mind so and a trump 42 I mean seriously anyway even if you don't like Donald Trump you can admit that 42 is pretty insane his his margin is or his range is sort of 44 45 to 48 Maybe be on a great evening in know 49 but I don't see him getting above 50 anyway we look at other polls in Michigan I mean you had this one from the start of September Americans for IVF supported this one and it was even IVF was a big talking point for Harris in the debate that she was trying to get pushed through and Trump's response was pretty good and so really that's not a good sign uh we look at the other PS here obviously we have The Insider Advantage one that we talked about and then these ones probably aren't included the recent um the recent debate but you have this marole which has haris up by four in Wisconsin again Wisconsin polling is always awful it's always so wrong it's six to seven points off in favor of the Democrats so really if you were to apply that here which you can't do directly but if you were to and Kennedy's at 6% when he pulls out that is going to be a pretty you know you could gain one and a half% from that if you're Trump I said I said nationally Kennedy was at four and I said that Trump would gain about one and he and that is carried pretty well I'm pretty happy with that one so I think if you were going to say Wisconsin You' probably say 1.5 to 1.3% would go to Trump there and you include the polling bias against him even if you say it's only four points or so he'd win in that state but anyway if we were to go through it now I'd say of course North Carolina doesn't change it stays at a lean uh if you were to ask me and of course we did ask ourselves this question the other day Georgia Pennsylvania and Nevada they're complete toss-ups Wisconsin's a weird one because you can't really look at the polling there it's always just so wrong Arizona is probably further to Republicans than most people realize and Michigan well we thought that one was out of play not out of play but you know it was pretty set and now it's swinging back so I mean there's no there's no uh nonfeasible world where Trump doesn't take all seven of these just like he would have against Biden I don't think Harris would win on a perfect night for her I don't think she'd win North Carolina I think that one set I'm very confident on that one Arizona's similar even though Trump was there the other day but of course he's going to be you know he he can't just obviously Harris was in New Hampshire the other week that was a that was a curious one but Trump's of course going to go to the swing States but he may not go back to Arizona to be honest after this now because it's uh it's pretty safe to be honest obviously it's not safe in the sense of the word that it's 10 points but you know he pretty much set in stone three points or so that will be uh all good for Trump anyway we see these polls these polls are now out of uh the recent polling do we have any new ones on 538 that is the question we have this Nationwide one that has uh Harris up by four which again that includes pre and post debate so that's kind of a weird one you have this Saint Anselm College which colleges tend to lean Democrat uh but it's pretty accurate to be honest if I was going to make a guess I'd probably say Harris plus n in New Hampshire so actually that's not that bad um and then you've got Quantas polls that's I would have said plus n pre- debate of course I don't think the debate is going to swing too many people I think people put too much stock in it with undecided voters but then you look at North Carolina plus two for Donald Trump in the Quantas poll again I probably say it's around two and a half to three points at the moment and it's going to stay that way they tend to be polarized the voters in North Carolina and I don't think it's going to change so I think it's going to be around 3% % come election night Michigan we talked about this one it was Trump plus one that is just an unbelievable poll when was the last time Trump won a Michigan pole I mean it's got it's probably going to be a Rasmus some one which I don't think they put on here um it would have been this one at the end of August by Detroit news so actually not that long ago but then you look before that it's Detroit Free Press it's yugov in the middle of really weird really weird the polling Michigan this time actually but anyway we can look at what poll were we just looking at I don't even remember oh it was on here um this Alaska one okay so I have Alaska so a lot of Republican people put Alaska above 10 and even a lot of democrat people do I think it I don't think people realize how close it was last time it was 10 points and the trends are heading towards the Democrats I really think this is one that will go under 10 and this poll's really going to bring it to the four now cuz it's um only five points I don't think it's going to be that low but I think you know nine points eight points two Republicans I think that's pretty accurate and then we've got this morning consult one which is the general election as a whole It's Five Points we've got this rep one this radal politics one it's three points to Harris which would probably be a Harris win and the same goes for the New York Post um we got morning consult again with another poll I guess this is pre and post debate they had Harris plus 4 now they're saying Harris plus 5 I don't know about I don't know if Donald Trump's lost a point since that uh since that debate but anyway you have yugov and they have it even which would obviously mean a trump win overall and then we have this active o poll in Georgia which has it at 5050 between the two candidates so I I think that's that would make sense but we're going to go now through the 538 averages of the Swing States and we're going to see okay Trump's up in Arizona by less than uh a point but I think again polling tends to be more biased towards Democrats especially this cycle and you look at Georgia Trump's at plus point8 so again I mean you probably say that's lean then if you include if you apply the same sort of uh polling bias because I don't think rasmuson is included in these uh in these polls whereas ones like morning conso and Quinnipiac are so really this is going to favor the Democrats if anything and they're still not winning so quite an awkward one for them there we have so we can stick these on here so Michigan probably I look all my maps from now Michigan's going to be a tilt um Georgia if you going to apply it it's probably at lean at this point but it's such conflicting uh messaging coming out of Georgia it seems to be narrowing in har black vote turnout seems to be going up but then you look at the last week or so and she's been going down it's just a really strange one out of Georgia this maybe it's to do I think the Kennedy effect has worn off at this point Trump's gained his percentage point and he's you know Harris's still gone up I mean it's it's just a case of undecided voters actually parking their vote now but uh where were we Georgia okay we say that's lean we go to Pennsylvania which of course is going to decide the election at this point and it's Harris plus6 now I'd probably say you're looking at. 2% or so in favor of the Democrats in this average so you actually probably say Pennsylvania is going to the Democrats at this point I would I'm willing to say that at this stage uh but again you look at you look at the trends it's narrowed and it's about to go even so and of course fracking he brought up the fracking in the debate that's a big point in in Pennsylvania Nevada's even I mean it's pretty much has been for the last week or so and I think that makes sense to be honest so it's literally a tossup we'll leave that one then it's not going to decide the election either way actually and then we go to Wisconsin which is going to decide this one and it's going to say Harris plus 2.6 but again we've been over this Wisconsin is way off so again it's kind of a tossup but you know I I can't I can't just pick and choose there we'd say Wisconsin goes there this is just based on polling by the way if it was my opinion I'd probably have Georgia a tilt I'd probably have Nevada going Republican on a tilt I'd probably have uh if I we'll come back to Wisconsin I'd probably have Pennsylvania on a tilt again these are such fine margins but I've just been taught not to underestimate Trump because in 2016 he was way down and he won and in 2020 he was way down and he was 40,000 votes off winning so really you can't underestimate him and I think if if he's even if it's even a question that he's in front at this stage he's probably winning we've learned that from the last few times so we've got Wisconsin here I probably say it's stilling Republican to be honest at this point because just I can't get away from that polling the polling failures in Wisconsin I just can't and you say well they might have factored it in this time into that polling but I'm really not sure and Michigan we're going to say is still tilting to Harris but again this time a few weeks ago I had Wisconsin as lean I had Michigan as Le or not even a few weeks ago a few days ago I had Michigan and Wisconsin as lean so really this is not good news for Harris cuz the all of the margins they're getting closer even even uh Wisconsin's narrowing they're all narrowing it's really really interesting to see and it's not even the Kennedy effect anymore because he's out of the equation and he's you know the polling impact that he'd have had has disappeared it disappeared two weeks ago so anything that's happening now we'll see we do have to see the response even more from this uh from this election uh from this debate rather because we've seen it's kind of aged well for Trump and I say that because Harris won the argument there's no question she won the argument on the day but actually looking back on it what did voters want to know about her they wanted to know about her her policy and she kind of said a lot without going into much detail she sounded a little bit nervous when talking about her policy so really she didn't give the undecided voters what they wanted and that is going to be what makes the difference we I again I don't want to put too much stock in this debate and I think it was just going towards Trump anyway and you're seeing that it's not really been affected it's kind of just continuing to Trend towards Trump but really really um really interesting and I think right now if I was going to make a bet it would be the Trump up probably you know take Wisconsin out of it um because this is I'd say this is my projection but then if I was going to make a uh a prediction given the information that's available now I'll probably go with this uh 287 to 251 which is you know this number is becoming familiar now because I'm kind of these are the results I'm getting every single time pretty much but again Pennsylvania decides the election because now if you give that to Harris it's 27 it's 268 Pennsylvania will decide the election there's no question it's just a case of Democrats need to hold on to Wisconsin and Michigan because if they're not winning those two they're not winning any so that's my conclusion I think from the debate and the polling response I think the polling response in general has favored Trump to this debate even though we see certain ones that are close we see Alaska five points but I think the polling is favored Trump I think he was actually right I I even called him a little bit mental for saying that he won the debate and you know the polling all said so he might have been right but let me know what you think I know there's a lot of uh Democrats who will disagree with this video and that's completely fair enough but let me know what you think like the video share the video subscribe to the channel and I'll see you next time