Perspectives | Quarterly economic and market outlook | Summer 2024

Published: Jul 30, 2024 Duration: 00:04:51 Category: Education

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Introduction The global economic outlook is improving. The headwind to growth posed by central banks is declining, and broad financial conditions seem reasonably balanced. Currently, political risks appear to pose a more important challenge to markets. Volatility related to political events has already risen in a number of markets, including in Europe and Latin America. And the most significant political risks may still lie ahead right here in North America. I’m Michael Sager. Welcome to the 2024 summer edition of Perspectives. Outlook After surprising on the upside earlier this year, global growth has cooled in recent months. Much of this is centered on the US, including the labor market, for which supply and demand appear to be better aligned than in past years. Concurrently, the breadth of the global growth recovery has actually increased with more countries reporting improvement in economic activity. Inflation remains above central bank targets in most countries, but is expected to gradually decline. Overall, the global economy is neither overheating nor particularly weak. Financial conditions are neither too easy nor unnecessarily restrictive. We remain in a broadly constructive investment environment. We expect equity markets to make further progress to the upside, albeit perhaps more limited than seen in the past year for the US. The more important challenge to asset markets in the next 12 months could come from political events. Potential risks include November's presidential election in the US, additional European elections, as well as Chinese relations with the US and Europe. Although we remain constructive, we don't expect equity markets to realize abnormal returns. Furthermore, relative to fixed income, expected equity outperformance is likely small over the next 12 months. Although this outlook doesn't offer a high conviction tactical opportunity it does represent good news for a balanced portfolio of investors who can expect solid returns on the two main asset classes in their portfolios. Summary The US dollar continued to defy gravity in the second quarter of 2024 gaining further ground for a cumulative year-to-date appreciation of more than 4% on a trade-weighted basis. The strength of the greenback was consistent with the US economy's continued cyclical growth leadership that kept the Fed on the sidelines, As highlighted in the last edition of Perspectives, the greenback's overvaluation isn't something new. The currency has screened as expensive for nearly a decade. This certainly hasn't helped the US economy reap the full competitive benefits of the substantial productivity gains it has realized over recent years, particularly against the likes of Canada and the Eurozone. As a result, the US trade deficit with the rest of the world is now much bigger than it was ten years ago. With the US elections looming, US trade balances will likely take center stage again with increased prospects of another trade war and important implications for market volatility and currency valuations. The Canadian dollar remains stuck in the doldrums against the US dollar through the second quarter of 2024, hovering around 73 cents to the US. This is close to the bottom of its trading range of the last two years, and a long way from our estimate of a fair value of 85 cents to the US. The Canadian dollar has actually screened as undervalued for nearly a decade, similar to the US dollar. Canada's productivity performance has been key to the behavior of the loonie. Canada is experiencing a multi-year negative productivity shock. In addition, we remain downbeat on the short-term outlook for the price of several of Canada's key commodity exports, including crude oil. Monetary policy is likely to be broadly neutral. But as noted above, political risk might begin to put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar if trade war speculation becomes increasingly prevalent. For the full Summer Perspectives report, visit the CIBC Asset Management insights hub.

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