Trump EXPANDS Lead In Latest Map Projection | 2024 Election Map (Sep 2024)

Hello friends and welcome to Gold Crown politics and today we'll be discussing an update to the electoral map and Donald Trump's recent surge if you happen to like this kind of content make sure to hit the like button down below and subscribe for more content just like this so tonight is debate night this is a pivotal moment in this election it should be pretty entertaining to watch we'll have to see how it plays out and for the candidates this is really make or break I mean you have millions of eyes watching you and this is going to affect the race and I think for Harris it's certainly more important for her than for Trump because she hasn't truly laid down her exact policy position she did do the CNN interview with her VP Tim Walls recently but you know being completely unscripted and off the cuff we just haven't seen that from Harris yet so this is her chance to show the American people where she stands and she'll have to have a stellar debate performance because as of recently Trump has been gaining nationally we can see here in my national election model Trump is leading currently by just about two points he has slightly expanded his lead his lead does seem to be growing you can see over here his favorability has jumped up to just under 45% that is almost a record high for him he's gaining support and that is not a good sign for Harris if we see here she actually went down in vote share for the first time I've been tracking the race nationally and that is a sign that she has either officially peaked or at the very releas that her momentum has been thwarted so Trump I mean he's gaining pre-debate that is really good for him all he has to do tonight is just not mess up and so he's in a really good spot I also have a lot of confidence in my election model at Trump plus two because one of the most accurate National pollsters in presidential years Ras musen their pulling average matches my model perfectly at Trump plus two that's their average as well and I'm actually including them in my official model average now so they're going to affect this model here and it's currently at Trump plus two so he has a two-point lead nationally right now that means the race is semi-competitive although Trump is leading pretty comfortably in all the swing States and you can see the margins for all the key States here and let's start filling them out on the map so the state of Texas is currently a 14-point victory for Donald Trump I do expect a right word trend in the state due to Hispanic voters and the border now Democrats have looked to make the state more competitive in recent Cycles it was just five and a half points for Trump in 2020 but this time I just don't see it trending left again this cycle you know Harris is gaining with younger voters and the state is younger than average but Trump his gains with Hispanics particularly as well as African-Americans are really going to make it hard for Democrats to flip Texas long term and if Trump continues to expand his lead nationally Texas could even go into the safe Republican column we'll have to see now Florida it's the same thing as the Lone Star State a 14-point projected victory for Donald Trump here mostly due to the rightward trend with Hispanics we saw back in the midterms for the santis in 2022 just how ruby red the state has become not just in terms of election results but also voter registration Republicans have basically taken over the state and now to the state of Iowa we're looking at about a 13o win for Trump right now I still have the state trending to the left a little bit due to White voters as a whole trending left this cycle but still a big victory for Trump now the CATE of Ohio is a 14 and 1 Half Point Victory for him a likely margin in my projection it's almost in the safe Republican column Vance is going to help out Trump a little bit here perhaps he'll boost Trump here by about a point however VPS do not typically have a significant impact now we can start filling out some of Harris's States so the state of Virginia I have this one at a 4 and a half Point Victory for Harris right now I still have it trending to the left a little bit it could Trend you know to the right yunan is a very popular Governor here maybe it'll Trend back to the right and become more competitive we'll have to see now Minnesota this is a three and a half Point lean V lean victory for KLA Harris right now this state is trending pretty hard to the left in my forecast this cycle just like it did in 2020 I do see walls helping Herff here by about a point and it would be very difficult for Trump to flip this state the last time Minnesota went red was back in 1972 for Nixon so Democrats will likely hold on to the the state and now to New Mexico the same thing it's a three-point victory for Harris right now I actually have the state voting to the right of Minnesota because the state is projected to Trend to the right in my forecast Trump is improving with Hispanics it's a very Hispanic heavy State and it's also a border state really any state on the border is going to see a trend to Trump in my view and we can also look up here to New England the state of New Hampshire is a two-point win for kamla Harris the state of Maine is a three and a half Point Victory for Democrats both lean Democratic states in my projection I have them trending both to the left a little bit but they could very easily Trend back to the right you know the moderate voters here are a little unpredictable they're very swingy but Harris is holding on here however Trump is taking main second district by a likely margin of 14 points and KLA Harris is holding on to Nebraska's second district just barely it was redistricted to be more favorable to the GOP but I do think Trump would have to be up by a little bit more to flip it and finally we arrive to the final seven swing States this is what it all comes down to and Trump has a major advantage in them right now he's up by 2 points nationally that means he's going to win every swing state pretty comfortably now the city of Wisconsin is a 4 and a half Point lean victory for Donald Trump it is approaching the likely Republican column I do expect this state to Trend a little bit to the left similar to Iowa due to Trump maxing out with white workingclass voters this cycle in the cross tavs however this should be a pretty easy flip for Trump Trump his campaign should be prioritizing the state now Michigan we looking at just under a three-point win for Donald Trump also lean this is the least favorable swing state for a trump of all the seven swing States Harris would have to be up by just one point nationally to pick it off but as long as Trump is up nationally he's going to win this state he is making improvements with African-Americans which will stop the bleeding here however I would not put as much money here if I were Trump he doesn't have to win this state to win the election and next to Pennsylvania this is just under a five-point win for Donald Trump in my current projection now this is the most favorable Rust Belt swing state for Trump this cycle at least in my projection it's the most diverse State and his campaign is also pouring a lot of money into this state the most of any swing state and that's a smart move it has 19 electoral votes it has a lot of weight on the electoral map and if Trump wins this state a Harris Victory would be very unlikely Now we move down to the Sun Belt so North Carolina this state is an eight-point likely win for Donald Trump a big victory I do have the state trending with the nation at large it's not really going to Trend that much if at all and you know of all the swing States this one certainly would be the easiest for Trump to pull off there's no need to pour much money here and as you can see Trump has already won the White House with 279 Electoral College votes if he holds on to the Rust Belt it's pretty much game over but I do think the Sun Belt will be easier wins for Trump next the state of Georgia this is a Sixpoint likely victory iory for Donald Trump in his column his gains here with African-Americans will really help him out in the state we're I mean we're talking about a 30% black electorate in Georgia if Democrats are not maxing out with this voting block they really cannot win the state because Trump is going to do so well in the rural counties but if I was Trump I would pour a lot of money here to essentially secure Victory and now to the State of Arizona we're looking at just under a seven-point margin for Donald Trump right now a pretty big win like I mentioned earlier any state that's on the border I do see trending to the right Arizona included by just about a half point to the right in my forecast now Trump is going to have a pretty easy time here this state should be pretty easy to flip and now to the state of Nevada Trump leats here by six points in my current projection a likely margin he will see workingclass Hispanics massively Trend to him also Hispanics at large and the state has been trending to the right for quite some time Trump will be the first Republican to win the state since bush Junior back in 2004 so that finishes out an update to the electoral map 312 Electoral College votes for Trump compared to 226 for kamla Harris Trump is in a very good position right now he's winning the swing States pretty easily and Harris has a lot of ground to make up in this debate that's going to happen tonight Harris really has to have a good performance there's a lot of pressure to do that but this is it I think if Trump wins the debate this race will pretty much get out of hand for Harris he's already been gaining nationally Prett debate Harris has kind of maxed out with her support it's kind of hit a wall if Trump simply goes out there and does what he needs to do you know no major slip UPS he is on an incredibly likely path to win back the White House in 2024 thanks so much for watching this video make sure to like And subscribe down below for more content just like this and this has been Gold Crown politics signing out