Trump SURGES In 2024 Betting Odds As Democrats PANIC | Election Map Trump V. Harris (Aug 2024)

Hello friends and welcome to Gold Crown politics and today we'll be discussing the latest updates for the 2024 election cycle if you happen to like this kind of content make sure to hit the like button down below and subscribe for more content just like this so right now if we do take a look at the current betting odds in Polly Market things are looking exceptional for the former president he's experienced a recent surge in the betting odds and Harris's honeymoon period is starting to fade a little bit Trump now has over a 50% chance to win the election and you can see down here he has retaken the lead from kamla Harris she was leading for a little bit and then he retook the lead back and if we go state by state Trump currently has a decent lead in the state of Nevada as well as in the state of Arizona he has a strong lead in both the sun Bel States down here of Georgia and North Carolina and he's even leading in the state of Pennsylvania now Harris does lead in the states of Wisconsin and Michigan in the Benning ODS but her leads in these states have gone down recently and and Trump is now the favorite to win the election and I don't think people realize just how good this really is for Donald Trump because he has never even been favored to win an election ever back in 2016 we can see he was the heavy Underdog at just 13% odds to win but he still managed to pull out that election and then we can see in 2020 Trump's odds did improve to about 35% but he was still a big Underdog and four years ago it was one of the closest elections in the history of the country but now in 2024 for the first cycle in his political career Donald Trump is currently favored to win the election he has over a 50% chance right now now I'm not entirely sure what has caused this recent boost for Trump in the Bing ons especially the fact that it was during the DNC which is pretty interesting it could have something to do with the fact that RFK Jr hinted yesterday at dropping out of the race and potentially supporting Trump in 2024 and an update on that sources do say that he's going to drop out of this race by the end of the week and throw his support behind Trump which is a very significant development we'll have to see how that affects things in the coming weeks it'll likely boost Trump even further if he does end up supporting Trump but right now Trump is holding a very steady lead in my election forecast he's still at 313 Electoral College votes compared to Camala Harris at 225 Trump is still winning in all the major seven swing states by lean or likely margins he's just a big right now he's currently up by six points in the state of Wisconsin he's up by four points in Michigan six points in Pennsylvania he's up by eight points in the state of Nevada six points in Arizona also six points in Georgia and nine points in North Carolina in my forecast and if we see here in my job approval model Trump is holding a four-point lead nationally and I want to go into this model a little bit for my newer viewers because everyone sees my election model and immediately sort of thinks oh this guy he must be a right-wing forecaster he's clearly biased but no that is not the case my model is 100% numbers based and it uses the most accurate political metric we currently have job approval this can predict vote share for a candidate better than any pulling average you will ever come across look at how accurate this is guys 2020 for example Trump's adjusted job approval was literally spoton to his actual vote share four years ago if we see on here for Obama in 2012 it was just about a half point off still really close and Bush in 200 before was still under a point difference so this metric is better than any pulling average you're ever going to use you can see Harris has a 45.3% current adjusted job approval and so if we scroll up here she should be getting about 45% nationally which would be an underestimation of her pulling data and I actually switched from RCP to 538 for Harris's job approval because RCP actually hasn't updated their surveys for her approval in like 3 weeks so I'm currently using 538 for that and you don't want to use her favorability by the way for her vote share because favorability is much less accurate than job approval historically it's more inconsistent you know with Trump his favorability back in 2020 was like five points off from his vote share so you want to stick with job approval in my opinion and the idea with this model guys is that you first get the first vote share that being the incumbent party with their job approval then you calculate the third party vote sh using the current RCP average and I also add about a half a point for Chase Oliver as well who is not included in the Aggregate and then here if we see I multiply this by a historical ratio in which third parties typically underperform their projected vote share and right now it's sitting at 5.7% for third parties combined so the idea guys is that you get two of the vote shares here right that being these two and then the third vote share that being the Challenger party it must add up to 100% for all three and that's how this one is calculated Trump is sitting at about 49% nationally and using this method Trump is up by about four points nationally and I am incredibly confident in this margin because I actually have other models that confirm this margin right here you see I also have a polling bias model that uses 2020 National polling bias to calculate the estimated National environment and it's also estimating a Trump plus4 National environment I also have if we scroll down here a favorability model that takes into account the fact that Trump massively overperforms his favorability wrting historically and he's projected to get about 49% of the vote share and you calculate this one the same exact way as the job approval model you first get one major party vote share and then the third party vote share and then the third must add up all three to 100% And just like in the other two models Trump once again is Up by Four Points exactly so now I have three different models showing us the same exact thing Trump plus 4 I mean you can't make this up even Ras m their current average is Trump plus 4.3 and they have been the best most accurate National holster in both 2016 and 2020 and if we see back in 2020 all my models were also pointing to about Biden plus 5 including Ross M which was only about a half point off from the actual margin of Biden plus 4.5 so people you know claiming that I'm biased or whatever I guess they don't watch my videos my election model would have predicted a Biden victory in 2020 with nearly 100% accuracy you see my job approval model if applied back to 2020 it was Biden plus 5.1 because first we predict Trump's vote share using his adjusted job approval then you predict third parties using the current average and the ratio and the remainder vote share must go to the Challenger party in this case Biden in 2020 this model was only about a half point off from the actual result you can't really get more accurate than that and now the same exact model is showing Trump plus 4 in the National environment which would mean he's not only winning all the major swing States he's also going to be competitive in deep blue States like Virginia for example my election model currently has a Harris plus4 lean margin in the state and if we take a look at the best Virginia pollster from 2020 it is actually Harris plus three which is almost spot on to my model and guys if Virginia is really about a three-point race can we honestly say that the swing States in this election are close I mean Virginia was + 10 for Biden back in 2020 if it's only at plus three for for Harris now that's a seven-point swing to the right from 2020 that is a big shift it's really notable and all the swing states were decided by under three points in 2020 so there's just no way if Virginia is at plus three for Harris that the swing States would be just tilt margins for trump it doesn't make sense the recent polling data has the swing States at tilt margins for Trump mostly but these margins are just going to be so off just like they were in 2020 and right now in my election forecast as I have been saying for weeks this race is not the ultra competitive election like the mainstream media would have you to believe Trump is in the best position right now of his entire political career to take back the White House he is stronger than ever he's leading in the betting odds he is now awaiting a potential endorsement from RFK Jr when he drops out which will have a big impact on this race and Trump's lead might just expand even further we'll have to see what happens but Trump right now is looking very very Sol and if the election were held today the election would not be close if you made it to the end of the video thank you so much for watching if you happen to like this kind of content do make sure to hit the like button down below and subscribe for more content just like this on the latest updates for the 2024 election cycle if you'd like to support the channel do leave a comment down below your thoughts on the video I'd love to hear it and as always this have been Gold Crown politics signing out