The 2024 Election Map Based On Polling Averages From ALL 50 STATES! | Trump vs Harris

as we are just 53 days away from the presidential election we'll be taking a look at the polling from every single state on this map and yes we're actually going to look at every single state so starting off here with the state of Washington right now in the few posts conducted in Washington Harris has an average lead of 11.3% that may seem impressive however Joe Biden won the state by 19% in 2020 so that's roughly a 8% drop off if the ping is actually accurate that's not a good outlook here for k Harris and doesn't end there in the state of Oregon here right now in the soul po conducted which we should take a grain of salt from but nevertheless K haris only leads by 5% that is not great news when Biden won the state by 16 in 2020 so Oregon does come down as just leaning Democrat now going to the state of California now in California right now kamla Harris has a 24% Advantage keep in mind she serves as a senator from the state of California before she was chosen as Joe Biden's running mate now 24% may seem impressive however Joe Biden won the state of California in 2020 by 29.2% while a margin in a state like California won't be super important it could be significant in some of the down ballot races specifically the house elections and as you can see k Harris is not doing that well in the state of California now going to the next state on this map here the state of Nevada in the state of Nevada right now KL Harris does maintain 8.6% advantage over Donald Trump now polling in Nevada has historically been relatively accurate what I mean is that the states have generally been overestimating or underestimating a candid by by roughly around 2% now you might say that that means Harris has the advantage however that's certainly not necessarily the case Harris only leads by 0.6% and given the fact that the margin of error is roughly 4 to 5% this still means that either candidate could certainly win the stada this is most certainly a very competitive race right now however simply according to polling Nevada is in the Tilt blue column now we go to the State of Arizona Arizona is a trending Blue State however in the current polling as you can see Donald Trump holds a 1.6% advantage over kamla Harris Harris has only been leading in one poll while CNN one poll conducted by CNN suggest that Donald Trump is actually up by 5% in the state of Arizona now that should be a good sign for the former president who actually lost the state to Joe Biden in 2020 by a margin of 12,000 votes if Donald Trump is able to win the state that would be a huge flip and that could bold well for Donald Trump in some of the Suburban areas which is what the state of Arizona is filled with so as of right now Arizona goes down as till Republican next up we just go to some of the great plane states that really won't make a splash but could indicate how the rural areas will be voting first off in the state of Idaho we don't have any polls but it's safe to say that this is a safe Republican race we now go to the state of Utah where there's quite a spread you can see a trump plus 10 pole and a trump plus 32 Pole now generally in the state of Utah polls do underestimate Donald Trump which is probably a good thing for Trump that he's already leading by such a significant margin and we're going to give Utah a safe Republican we now go to the city of Wyoming where Trump is leading in the one pole conducted there by 53% with an Apples to Apples comparison Trump only won a state by 43% in 2020 which would be a significant increase for him especially in a state as rural as this and as lopsided for Trump as it is already now that could indicate strength in the rural areas but I'm not going to infer too much from this safe Republican now we go to the CATE of Montana where Trump is up by 17.6% according to RCP now that is a marginal increase from 16.4% in 2020 so right now Montana is safe Republican we go to next state here South Dakota this is roughly in line with the actual results in South Dakota Trump is underperforming slightly but then do to keep into consideration that poll's genuinely underestimate Donald Trump by a couple of points now going to the state of North Dakota here where Trump is also leading by roughly similar margin as he was in 2020 so that state also goes to the Republican party now now we go to state of Nebraska where there's a little bit more Nuance where the second district is slightly competitive if you look at the one pole conducted between Harris and Trump actually there's three polls but nevertheless Harris is up by roughly 6% which would be indicative of a likely margin now if you're curious of how the Statewide vote looks like if you look at all essentially Trump is still up by significant margin Trump plus 19 Trump plus 17 so as of right now this certainly is still a safe Republican State now going to the state of Colorado now in the few polls that were conducted in Colorado these were not polls conducted between Harris and Trump rather these are polls conducted between Biden and Trump and Biden was only up by 6.5% not the most impressive when you won the state by 13.5 just four years ago that could indicate some slippage from the Democratic party in some of these Suburban voters but I shouldn't infer too much about this because now this race is between K Harris and Donald Trump and not Biden versus Trump nevertheless here Colorado goes down as likely now we go to the state New Mexico where in the one coduct conducted between Harris and Trump Harris is up by 10% that's a slight reduction from a 10.8% margin but NE nevertheless a pretty solid victory for k Harris now next up going to the state of Alaska which is notoriously difficult to pull because it's so far from the mainland United States nevertheless right now in the state of Alaska in the poll conducted between Harrison Trump trump has a 10% advantage that's identical to 2020 margin so Alaska does go down as likely a republican now going to Hawaii here there are not any head-to-head polls between Harris and Trump which means that there is no Apples to Apples comparison nevertheless Trump versus Biden Biden was only up by 8 and 18% not the most respectable for a candidate who won the state by 28% back in 2020 so that state is going to go to the safe blue mark Orin but that's not something democrats should be bragging about now going next year to the state of Oklahoma in the state of Oklahoma right now Donald Trump does hold a 16% lead in the one poll conducted between him and Harris which is a drop off from the 2020 margin but then again some of these polls are not super accurate now going to the state of Texas Texas is an interesting State it's a very populated state that used to be heavily Republican and now it's more competitive nevertheless here Trump still maintains a 7.3% Advantage although that may seem narrow that is more than the 5.6% advantage he h over Joe Biden in 2020 and considering that Texas is a trending Republican state if he's able to overperform there in compared to 2020 that does bold well for him in the remainder of the United States nevertheless Texas is a likely Republican state now going to Louisiana where we see Trump is slightly underperforming but yet again this is not a Apples to Apples comparison where where it's Joe Biden versus Donald Trump and not KLA Harris versus Donald Trump anyways Louisiana is safe Republican next up we go to the state of Kansas where again the margins remain similar between the polls and the actual 2020 presidential election results though it's notable here that again there's no Trump versus Harris polls here nevertheless Trump maintains roughly a 15% margin which is safe Republican now we go to Arkansas where again we don't have an Apples to Apples comparison but in the two polls between Biden and and Trump B has roughly a 28% deficit if you compare it to the actual results that is quite similar so we do see a safe Republican characterization now we go to state of Missouri where again we have two polls conducted between Trump and Harris when you average these numbers out that's roughly a 15.5% margin in favor of Donald Trump and when you look at the actual results here Trump on the state by 15.4% so again quite a similar result based on the two polls that that were conducted now going to the state of Iowa here where Trump is overperforming but this is again against Joe Biden it's not against KLA Harris nevertheless Trump is expected to do better than where he was performing in 2020 and right now Trump has an average of about a 13 to 14% advantage that means that he will win the state by safe margin at least according to polling now as you can see both candidates are well over 100 Electoral College votes right now Harris at exactly 100 and Donald Trump at 124 and Illinois will give a boost for kamla Harris she is leading there by 16% again that is similar to the 2020 numbers where Biden won the state by 17 so that does go to Cabo Harris now we're going to go into some of the other states here so starting with the state of Indiana the one poll that was conducted between Harris and Trump in the state shows Trump up by 10% against KLA Harris however this is sponsored by Dem atic candidate for office so it's not necessarily the most credible poster right now if you look at the results in 2020 that would be a 6% underperformance but again this poll does not seem to be very reliable so the state of Indiana does go down as likely Republican though with a caveat now going to the state of Tennessee if you look at the state of Tennessee right now you can see that Trump is up by 26% in the one poll against KL Harris with zero undecided that's a 3% overperform performance from the 2020 numbers for Donald Trump Tennessee is of course safe Republican now we go to the state of Mississippi where there's one poll conducted between Biden and Trump showing Trump up by 18 which is again a slight over performance from 2020 where Trump on state by 16.5% nevertheless here nothing significant Mississippi a safe Republican we now go to the next state here the state of Alabama Alabama in the three polls conducted between Trump and Biden Trump Trump had a 21% Advantage now that is around the actual margin where Trump actually want it buy Trump want it buy a little bit more 25.5% but nevertheless Alabama is a safe Republican state finally we go to the state of West Virginia here in the state of West Virginia in the one poll conducted between Harris and Trump Harris has a 27% deficit now that is not close to 40% actual deficit that Trump gained over Joe Biden in 2020 however it's important to know that there's a lot of ancestral Democrats from West Virginia who are unwilling to admit that they're going to vote for Trump but they're going to go for the Republican candidate nonetheless so West Virginia is safe Republican that that does give Donald Trump a boost to 165 Electoral College votes to KL Harris at 119 now next up going to the state of Kentucky in the state of Kentucky we don't have any head-to-head polls between KLA Harris and Donald Trump nevertheless Trump has a 25% advantage over Joe Biden which is roughly the same as it was in 2020 so the state of Kentucky does go to the Republican party now going to the State of Florida now Florida was a state that was really competitive in 2020 going for Trump by 3.4% however this time Donald Trump is expected to have a much easier race and Win It by six now this is may seem to still be a relatively competitive race but do keep into consideration the fact that Joe Biden was actually leading at this point in the state of Florida back back in 2020 and obviously he ended up losing the state by 3 something per. which means that the polls were actually outside the margin of error when you adjust that for the margin of error then Trump would be winning by double digits nevertheless here this is just a polling video this is going to be a r plus 6 State now going to the state of Georgia Georgia polls have historically been quite accurate and this time it's showing a dead heat with Donald Trump up by. 3% over kamla Harris now the polling I've generally noticed in the state of Georgia is that it overestimates Donald Trump uh Joe Biden or a Democratic candidate by roughly around 1% or it's really accurate in 2020 the final polls in the state of Georgia overestimated Joe Biden by 1% 2016 it overestimated Hillary Clinton by 1% so when you adjust it for that Trump will win it by a very narrow margin and right now Trump is still leading so it's going to be a very competitive race but I do believe that Donald Trump along with the polling is nearly favored to win the state of Georgia now going to the state of South Carolina now in the state of South Carolina we don't have any head-to-head polling but the polls conducted between Trump and Biden suggested that Trump was up by around 16% if you look at that that is a over performance but again it's not an Apples to Apples comparison because Joe bid is NE not not even on the ballot anymore so the state of South Carolina does go for the Republican Party by safe margin now if you look at this Donald Trump is already at 228 Electoral College votes and he has already flipped two Biden States the states of Arizona and Georgia two states that went for bid by combined total of 23,000 votes now going to the state of North Carolina this is the one state that Harris has been targeting as the so-called Red State this has not been a State deficit has voted for a Democratic candidate since Barack Obama in 2008 on the presidential level now if you look at polling right now you might see that Donald Trump and K haris are essentially neck and neck do keep in mind that the State of the State of North Carolina generally PS in North Carolina consistently overestimate the Democratic party in 2020 Joe Biden had around a 3% lead here on 538 before losing the state subsequently by about 1.3% so as you can imagine the state in North Carolina will probably go for Donald Trump something that the polls myself and most pundants can agree with so North Carolina now in a to column boosting Trump up to 244 Electoral College votes now next up in the state of Ohio currently in the state of Ohio Donald Trump maintains a 9% lead over K Harris now that might seem pretty similar to 2020 where Donald Trump won the state over Joe Biden by eight points however in the State Ohio post are notorious for overestimating Democratic candidates both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton at this point in time in the election was actually leading in the state of Ohio on its polling aggregate before subsequently losing the state by 8% in both elections that's roughly 8 % underestimation of Donald Trump now if you consider that that means Trump is actually up by 18% however this is just a polling video so the state of Ohio does come down as likely Republican see here Donald Trump is actually up against K Harris on the electoral vote count by 142 Electoral College votes now KL Harris will get her much needed boost in New England so starting off here from the state of Virginia now Virginia at this point in time seems to be the most pulled state of this entire election cycle which is quite interesting haris does lead by 5.3% however this is not good news for the Harris campaign Joe Biden won the state by double digits and polling the state actually overestimated Joe Biden in the final results now that is certainly a concerning sign because if Harris is only winning the de by 5% or less that could signify that she's not doing that well in the alteran suburbs around Washington DC which could spell trouble elsewhere in a state like Pennsylvania Georgia or Arizona now don't read too much into this but that's not a good sign for the Harris campaign Virginia is barely likely for the for the Democratic party now DC there's no polls there Delaware there's no polls there in the state of Maryland we do have some polls between Harris and Joe B and Donald Trump now the few polls that were taken it does seem like like that Harris is underperforming binds number she's leading from anywhere ranging between 20 points and 32% which in any case is still under B's 33.2% Victory so the state of Maryland does go for the Democratic party albeit not by the best of all margins that Democrat would hope for now in New Jersey we don't have any polls but if you look at some of these numbers it's really concerning for the Democratic party this was a state that Joe Bine won by safe margin back in 2020 and right now at least from the Joe Biden versus Donald Trump polls the state of New Jersey is competitive and because this is a polling video that's why I'm going to keep it as a lean Democratic State now going to the state of Connecticut now in the state of Connecticut right now there's again not many very effective polling but as you can see right now joil Bin's up by roughly 12% which is a likely margin according to my map not the best when Joe B won a state by 20% over Donald Trump in 2008 and 20 now going to the state of Rhode Island here where again there's not a lot of polls but nevertheless here you do see that Joe binds up by roughly 15% not the best margin where again Joe bid actually won the state by 21% over Donald Trump in the actual election results so that is still a win for k Harris just not by as good of a margin finally going to the state of New York now New York the empire state is not a state where Donald Trump is expected to win however polling there has shown a surprisingly tight race with kamla Harris only up by roughly 133% when you average your polls out that is a 10% reduction from from B's 23% victory in the CATE of New York back in 2020 that could spell trouble for a Democratic party who's trying to flip a bunch of house races in the New York area especially in Long light Island Staten Island as well as some of the areas around Westchester County now this could signify some the fact that Democrats are somewhat dis affected and this could be a troubling sign for Democrats Nationwide in states that have a similar demographic as the state of New York specifically with minority voters who seem disengaged with this year's general election anyways I'm getting ahead of myself New York is still safe blue albeit not by the most impressive margin or the margin that Democrats would hope for now we're going to continue off with some of the more liberal states in the north starting here with the state of Massachusetts in Massachusetts right now Democrats have a significant Advantage which is still slightly under the 20 the 33.5% margin they had over Donald Trump in 2020 but nevertheless this is still a margin of victory for the Democratic party going to the St Vermont here you can see that the two polls conducted has hairs up by 40% which is not all that realistic I don't think it's going to be that blue but nevertheless the state of Vermont is going to go safe for the Democratic party now going to the state of New Hampshire in the state of New Hampshire here right now here Paris has roughly a 6.6% advantage over Donald Trump that is a slight reduction from 2020 but nevertheless still a pretty solid margin for KL Harris if you do trust the polls now do keep in mind that in 2020 polls had Joe B up by 13% in the state over Donald Trump so if those polls end up being wrong again this would essentially be a coin flip election but this is just a video based on the polling finally going to the state of main if you look at the state of main right now the first district is obviously going to go Blue now the main at large F has been somewhat in the spirit the most recent poll has it as D plus 17 in another poll Harris plus 9 this one had Trump plus one so it's pretty complicated but in the two polls that have Harris featured in them it does seem like that Harris has a lead and the c main does go as likely Democratic while the second district does go as likely Republican because this is a more rural district and working class an area that Donald Trump generally performs quite well in now next up going to the four states that really will determine who wins the election Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania especially the latter three states first off in Minnesota Harris has a 5.5% Advantage Which is less than D joine 7.1% advantage in 2020 which is noticeable considering that her running mate Tim Walls is actually the governor of Minnesota you probably would expect a better margin for her if she was actually going to win the presidency now going to the city of Wisconsin Wisconsin polling has historically been a disaster Joe Biden was up by 6.3% at this moment on the election cycle and Biden was actually up by 8.4% on Election Day on 538 before subsequently winning the state by less than 1% so Wisconsin polling has historically not been the most accurate in fact if you look at this Bloomberg poll you can tell exactly why regardless if you're a Democrat Republican support har support Trump or if you think Harris or Trump will win the presidency I think no one disputes the fact that Harris will not win the city of Wisconsin by an 8% margin that just shows a response error nevertheless here this is a polling video so Wisconsin will have to go to Democrat although I definitely disagree with these polls because they have historically been really bad especially in Wisconsin where polls in 2016 and 2020 were off by at least 6% in favor of Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton now we go to the state of Michigan and Michigan is somehow more competitive than the state of Wisconsin or at least more favorable for the Republicans that doesn't make sense now I think this number more or less does make sense but if you look at this number I'd say that that doesn't make sense and that this does certainly doesn't make sense to me because Wisconsin has historically been more Republican leading than the state of Michigan now Michigan as you can see still overestimated the Democratic support in 2016 and 2020 by wide margin but at this point you're going to see the state of Michigan in the Tilt blue column finally in Pennsylvania and boy Pennsylvania is a state that generally poles are not as off as the states of Wisconsin Michigan and shows a dead heat thanks to this again this Bloomberg pole which kind of skews the average generally all the other polls fall between a tii and a trump plus two but this is a Harris plus4 pole which is kind of a outlier nevertheless here I do still have to trust the polling aggregate at least for this video although I don't actually trust it in real life as you can see it overestimated Joe Biden by 3% 2020 and overestimated Clinton by 7% in 2016 but we're going to look at Poly Market poly Market is where people actually bet their money to see who is going to win the presidential election or essentially on many different things who's going to win the NFL Etc and right now Republicans have a 51% chance of winning while Democrats have a 50 % chance of winning in other words it's very competitive but nevertheless this is a very much a 5050 type of result so as you can see right now this is a very competitive election but at least because we have I don't want to leave any state as a tossup we're going to put the city of Pennsylvania in the Tilt Republican column giving Donald Trump to 81 and Harris to 57 now if you look at this map you see a very competitive election however do keep in mind that polling is not something I generally Trust trust at least I wouldn't trust it without a huge grain of salt po consistently overestimate the Democratic party at least against Donald Trump polls overestimated the Democratic Party by roughly 2% in 16 and 4% in 20 and in the states like Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania polls were off by far greater margins than those margins I just mentioned in Wisconsin both 2016 and 2020 the Democratic party was overestimated by more than 8% C these polling errors are simply inacceptable and frankly if you look at some of these polls from an adjusted perspective you will see the Republicans winning far more Electoral College votes anyways if you want to see a video where the polls are actually wrong you can click here and if you want to subscribe click here thank you for watching have a nice day goodbye