College football BETTING LINES you can’t pass up 🤑 🏈 | Always College Football

Intro - Let’s talk betting lines so assuming there's not some sort of crazy variance with injuries or ones score games Notre Dame's going to be there in that final 12 hello and welcome in it's always college football today is Thursday August 15th I know we're getting to you a little late we apologize it's a little later than we usually release our show here on Thursdays but I promise it's worth waiting for today is a gambling preview if you want to have a little action if you want to tail some experts today is your day we are very lucky at ESPN to have a ton of great great hosts and analyst in this space and we're lucky to be joined by two of those today two of my good buddies I join them all the time on ESPN bet formerly used to join them on daily wager but now they are doing a terrific job ushering in this new college football world and how we should look at it a little differently if you're looking to make a couple plays here in the preseason Tyler fulam will join us as will Joe foron boss so it'll be a lot of fun kind of kick a few things around see what they might like from a season win total perspective see how they feel about maybe some Conference Championship plays do they or do they not play the Heisman Trophy should they play the Heisman Trophy and I know Joe is very hot on some yes or no playoff or no playoff bets on a few of these teams let's not waste any time it's Tyler and Joe joining us here from ESPN bet all right so I've joined these guys Joe and Tyler join the show a million times it's time that they join me Tyler fulum and Joe Forton B from ESPN bet Fame we've done picks all throughout the college football season the last couple of years check them out they're super fun these guys are super buttoned up on college football and they're pretty dialed in I mean last couple years when we've done the trivia or the pick three or whatever it's been really tough to get inside you guys and I live the sport y'all are picking college football like 17 other picks so what's the word fellas how we looking first off don't play koi you won the contest two years ago so this is a whole like shell game you're playing here with the you know it's been a lot of fun coming on with you guys you're just baiting us to Hype you up which just well done you got us there if you guys you guys spend about like 30 minutes on college football a week I spend 30 hours on college football a week in addition to like so I would hope I'd win in the fact that it comes down to the end the way it does just goes to show you how wired you guys are on all sports not just college football but Tyler I get the sense this year that you're already seeing it kind of the same way I'm seeing it I'm concerned about that because when we're on the same page that means Vegas probably has us don't you think uh yeah now usually Joe may not be man enough to admit it I am my college football picks generally happen later in the week after you've been on ESPN BET live I listen to what maloy's tail in there then I kind of you know slide in and tail most of those but there are a couple a few more than a few I guess public teams public universities that I have a strong conviction about and it seems the public also shares that conviction and we know in this particular uh industry in this game that's not always a good thing well all right so let's start with you Joe are there any teams when you look at their season win total over under I I understand it's dependent on the number all right if you throw a Michigan you know seven and a half out there like I'm freaking out because I'm like I know public wants to bet the over on Michigan but now it's at seven and a half I'm panicked so are there any teams that you just flat out avoid on an annual basis based on public sentiment no there's always a team that ends up being that team that whether I bet on them or against them over or under throughout the course of the season I just see it wrong and I just I will hate that team and then I'll have to get that out of my mind at the end of the year I think however we're presented with one of the best opportunities we've been presented in for a long time in this sport or gambling in general because when you expand to a 12 team playoff and you alter the manner in which everyone goes about their business inside that chaos there's opportunity right like bookmakers are scrambling too because I know fine bomb was talking about this topic and some people found it ridiculous but just as a hypothetical as a thought experiment look at the Iron Bowl such an important game for those two teams every single year but if you happen to be Alabama and you're undefeated going into that game and you know your spot in the SEC Championship game is secure are you thinking maybe about resting some starters there to roll into the SEC Championship Game knowing that that matters more winning that conference securing a top four seed getting a buy we've never dealt with that before right there are spots this year where teams Midway through the year might have to go to a Boston College do you send your B Squad up there and rest the stars because you don't need to go undefeated so I think with so much up in the air there's a lot of opportunity and Utah OVER 9.5 looks good I say that and I come back to Old Reliable Utah you know that's where I go if we're gonna start with a pick right out of the top that's a team that transferring conferences I think a lot of people look at schools from the Pack 12 going to the Big 10 and they think this is going to be a problem Texas and Oklahoma going to the SEC this is going to be a problem I see opportunity for Utah they build in the trenches that's going to transfer conferences no matter where you're going from if you're Stout up front you're going to be able to travel and play on the road and on top of that if you've got veteran quarterback play you're going to be in a good situation regardless so I look at their schedule I see them in one dog spot it's at Still Water against Oklahoma State late September it's a winnable game win total is n and a half which means I can give up three losses to the point where I lose so two are freebies you get past Oklahoma State I think we're in good shape so that's the first team that comes to mind I love that trap when I know a couple teams are already jumping out to you uh but before you give me a pick or two on some win totals that you've been eyeing are there any stay away like I'm not touching it under any circumstance this part of the Season like is there a bet that you just avoid like the plague Allah Georgia win total over because everyone seems to think they're going to win all their games they're favored in every game how could they possibly lose is there anything just no doubt about it no Probably should stay away from O/U for Colorado - here’s why questions asked I'm staying away yeah it's uh Joe's favorite program the Colorado Buffalo we know that they are one of the most popular they barely made it over their win total last year even though they stumbled down the stretch all eyes are on Coach Prime in that program now that win total is up at five and a half I think a lot of people are going to say what they won four games last year now they have to increase on that by two the over five and a half is something I think a lot of people may look at and say nah they can't do that but I think coach Prime is a good coach and I think a year of that program the transfers weeding out the the uh former Buffalo that he didn't think fit in his program a year of development for his son shador Sanders and Travis Hunter who might be the best overall college football player in the country when you have two talents like that man I think you can go almost anywhere on any given Saturday and win now of course defense and offensive line play were a problem so I'll have to wait until I see them on the field before I get a firmer grip on how good this team actually is but the Buffalo are clearly a team that everyone has their eye on and when everyone has their eye on a program that's usually where the bookmakers are sharpest you know what I'm saying so I'm staying away from Colorado wouldn't be surprised if they're a five- win team a six- win team a four- win team or an eight- win team this year as unpopular as it is I think Avoid the Heisman market early one of the best markets to avoid is the Market everyone wants to talk about it like we're going to talk about it but the reality is the favorite hasn't hit since Mariota in 2014 and you've had I believe six of the last 15 have started the season either at 100 to one or greater or they haven't even been posted like that's a market that you can find great spots throughout the course of the year and I think playing it early in the year I don't think it's a smart move I think you can find a lot better ways to attack the Heisman Market once we get in season and you pay attention to the upcoming spots on the schedule it's hard to argue with that at all I I don't know how anyone could get on board with a Heisman bet because one the odds aren't that great I mean in some case you're getting 10 12 15 to one in some spots like I I mean I'd rather I'd rather make a play on a on an Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 at least there's a little more predictability I kind of know what's coming the Heisman A popularity contest and it's really going to come down to the best quarterback arguably on one of the best teams so you take the playoff contenders you shrink the field then it becomes a Quarterback Award and more often than not you can probably figure out who the guys are going to be and at that point when there's really only seven or eight candidates is there good value at 10 to 12 to one I I'd rather place it elsewhere if I only had so many bullets I'm only going to spend them on things that I feel are a little more predictable when you look Tyler how A great case for why to take Texas under 10.5 wins would you assess the the new additions we already kind of hit Texas and Oklahoma and I know you're already there um I know where Joe is on Utah like goodness gracious alive moov to Salt Lake but how would you assess Texas for example moving into the SEC as it as it pertains to their win total to 10 and a half yeah I'm under 10 and a half with Texas Oregon's another team that's at 10 and a half uh just stretching out kind of big picture embracing the chaos and that thought exercise that Joe talked about will we see coaches motivated for all 12 games on the schedule like before all those teams up at 10 and a half I'm very interested in the under with conference schedules becoming deeper and more difficult and with nil and transfer reshaping rosters so quickly from Fall to fall that uncertainty like we know Dylan Gabriel's a good quarterback but what's he gonna look like at Oregon like we know will Howard had some success at K State what's he gonna look like in Ryan days offense at Ohio State so I'm generally defaulting the unders with the highest win totals in college fo plus probably not breaking news for your smartest betters out there but as it pertains to Texas I look at what they lost as far as talent and it reminds me of a couple years ago when M Brown's UNCC team was coming off a really good year their win total was posted at 10 and a half in the ACC and I said no way Hammer the under there they lost Javonte Williams they lost their second string running back they lost wide receivers they lost a quarterback they lost defensive players as well when you look at what Steve sarkeesian lost down there in Austin it's wide receiver one it's wide receiver two it's tight end one it's rb1 it's rb2 it's your Green Dot middle linebacker cornerbacks as well I know Quinn ERS is still there and that quarterback room is nice but there's going to be so much turnover from premium roster Talent on his team that now he's got to travel to the SEC and take on those schedules where in November you're playing at Florida or you know at Starkville or at Columbia I don't have their schedule memorized quite yet but you're going to be playing more difficult programs more difficult venues in November then going to Texas Tech lck going to K State Manhattan so I'm definitely on the under with Texas they only have you know room for one loss if you're going to go over 10 and a half I'm less skeptical about Oregon just because the price on the over is even money the most difficult game on their schedule is Ohio State at Aon Stadium one of the best home field environments in the country the only other real difficult game they have is going to Michigan and how good is Michigan going to be without JJ McCarthy and Jim Harbaugh um and Dylan Gabriel is the Heisman favorite I don't know if I bet that but he's obviously a really good college football player so I mean h Texas under one of my favorite we'll see about Oregon that may be one where it's over or pass for me uh don't know what I want to do with them yet but uh if any team is to go over 10 and a half that's moving conferences I think Oregon would be the one I'd look at first with Texas one of the things you want to ask yourself is how much how much better were they than they looked last year or how much worse were they than they looked last year like what's the view of last year and then how much different could it have been if a couple things flipped sometimes a team just rolls through a schedule they are who they say they are Point differential right like this is where the advanced analytics comes into play when people talk about one- score games last year there was opportunity they were nine and a half they could lose two games and when they beat Bama early in the season they really set themselves up nicely Tyler mentions how you can only lose one game this year you got the Oklahoma Georgia back to back but the thing you want to look at with Texas is people remember 11- one playoff team they're back what they don't remember is the overtime game against Kansas State they don't remember how they almost blew it against Houston they don't remember how they almost blew it against TCU right if you bet them last year over like I did I was sweating all of those games every single one of them and you realize sarkeesian for as good a coach he is he can be sloppy late in games that team can get away from him and games can get away from him you don't have that margin for error when your win total is 10 and a half so I'd be real careful with them because if they had lost one of those games last year the Kansas State the Houston or the TCU games they go 10- two they're not in the playoff and their win total this year is not 10 and a half How you should look at 1st year head coaches with your money yeah how do you guys assess new first year coaches I mean I know there's uh a program stability metric that gamblers use when looking at and trying to gain an edge and and maybe for example Dion last year there was a they're kind of a cloak of secrecy about what they might look like offensively so in a week one game against TCU catching three touchdowns like perfect TCU has no idea what I'm GNA do offensively they're going to be Chasing Ghosts we're gonna have the element of surprise kind of up Our Sleeve so do you give the benefit of the doubt to first year head coaches in week one settings what is the public perception of the higher and what's the reality of the higher I think Texas A&M with Mike Elco is a perfect example right like when they hired Elco the masses who don't really pay attention sat there and thought that was very uninspiring right they wanted a big name a huge name they're used to Jimbo they see all the big names that are hired in the SEC so you hear Mike Elco from duke and the thought process is all right you know who knows what this guy can do Mike Elco is a damn good coach anyone who's paying attention knows Mike Elco is a good coach so the public perception can drive that price down a little bit on A&M people aren't very excited about him anyone you talk to in vas who does this for a living and puts their power rankings together they have them rated higher than Texas A&M uh is would be in the AP pool or the coaches pool like they're getting a lot more respect in Vegas that discrepancy is where you find the opportunity where the sharp guys are buying but everybody else is selling so again to Tyler's point it's a coach by coach basis but there are a lot of those spots out there it's amazing I'm looking at the A&M kind of rating and A&M according to Vegas right now about 15th in in the rating right now as far as what they have and I think that's probably about right with the upside that they have and the opportunity they have frankly in like a week one game against Notre Dame where they are a slight favorite at home when factoring in the home field uh Notre nam's quite a bit ahead of them but the home field man for A&M week one first New Year head coach I kind of like to play uh all right moving into some win totals we already know that that Joe you're all over Utah Tyler I know you're all over Texas are there any others we'll start with you Joe that have kind of jumped There is a team in the Big 12 that is a sneaky good under pick off the page to you so far under on Houston that's one that you're not going to hear on any Network anywhere because it's not popular enough but if you talk to anybody in Las Vegas like everyone's lining up to play the under on Houston the schedule is just a brutal setup for them this year it's absolutely brutal they're a team that they made a good coaching hire and in the next two to three years they're going to be in buy spots because they're GNA come off a terrible year this year and then next year people will be down on them but that's a team right now that I would look at to go under just because the schedule sets up so brutal for them um Who is the best bet to make the CFP? Miami is a team I'm high on plus 210 for the playoffs one game in a dog roll which is going to be at home against Florida State and I think Florida state is down this season so there's gonna be an opportunity you got to survive the swamp in week one which is gonna be a tough game if you've been watching that line anytime it touches Miami minus three on the road immediately there's buyback off that key number with everyone grabbing Florida so the pros are going to be on Florida plus the three inside of that it might be people lining up on Miami at less than a field goal I think can navigate the season but you got to trust Chris Ball there you got to trust the late game scenarios for Mario Chris Ball and that's where he came up short last season so something to keep in mind Michigan under nine and USC, Michigan and Missouri - take the over or under win totals? a half was a play that's gone now so I'm probably avoiding that USC under seven and a half was something I was looking at small play not big on that one I found myself locking in only a handful of season win totals maybe eight to 10 I've been doing a lot more with yes no playoffs because I think expanding the 12 it's putting you in a situation where we can hedge off late in the year if certain scenarios line up poorly you have so many Marquee games late that if you get yourself right on The Fringe and you're looking good but maybe you're rolling into a tough matchup there's going to be a lot of hedge spots always keep that in mind with season win total bets and everything that goes the distance can you hedge out late and lock in a profit or get out of a bad position late with a good opportunity you have to keep that stuff in mind to avoid big big potential losses or at least to lock in profits yeah I was going to mention Michigan as well you look at their schedule not only do they play Oregon and Ohio State but they also get Texas as well you got to think those are three spots where they're more than likely to lose given the turnover there um I think it's down at eight and a half now as Joe was mentioning I still even think you can consider that um because you could see Alex orgy struggle his first year under Center or shiron Moore again struggle his first year on the headset but I'll go with an emotional play here and Greg we talked about this on ESPN BET live my Missouri Tigers you know expectations are high in Colombia nine and a half is a high win total for a school like Missouri in the SEC we haven't seen this since Gary pinkle was there with you know James Franklin and uh Marcus Lucas some of those guys that they you know won the East a couple of years right when they got into the conference so this is an exciting time to be a tiger fan because of Brady cook and Luther Burton but going over nine and a half despite having one of the more manageable as you instructed me to say when we're discussing an SEC schedule um one of the more manageable in the conference they they play Alabama they play Oklahoma that's about it as far as really difficult on the schedule spots and they get Oklahoma and Colombia um I still think the losses on defense for Eli drinkwitz might be too much to overcome I think the offense is going to be good again just like we saw last year cook a senior Burton maybe the best wide receiver in the entire country but you not only lost uh your top pass rusher and Darius Robinson your top two corners including Andis RR draw to the draft you lost Blake Baker who was so highly regarded as Eli drinkwitz's defensive coordinator that we saw coach Kelly down and Baton Rouge say I'm gonna pay you more money than any other coordinator of the entire country to fix my defense which was Dreadful last year trying to back up Jaden Daniels so Blake Baker's loss I think will be felt significantly even though Cory baton is well respected around the country it's just uh you have to prove it at this level if you're baton so the defense I think and an emotional Hedge as well um has me saying mizou tops out at nine wins this year yeah it's the Mizu one I always look at it and look it's the football Gods you're four and0 and one score games those things have way of kind Florida game last year you know the Florida game the Kansas State game even the game against I believe it was Memphis it was like yeah I just was wanting a little more and didn't get it so I think missou is the one that I'd stay away from I feel like the numbers inflated this everyone's looking at the schedule oh it's manageable oh it's still an SEC schedule there's going to be some hiccups the game at A&M I think is the one that's going to determine the over or the under in that scenario a McElroy loves the Hawkeye State couple that I like I love Iowa State seven and a half I think Iowa States one of those teams is kind of sliding out of the radar tons of production back bit of a tumultuous offseason leading into 23 then they insert Rocko backck in the lineup he had a rock solid entrylevel start I think for a first year guy that was not expected to be the starter to thrust in there just a few weeks before season starts and all of a sudden he's a big 12 rookie of the year they bring back just about everybody they kind of established an identity down the stretch they went seven- six but they went six and three in Big 12 play one of those losses was against the Texas Longhorns they play Texas better than most so I like the over for Iowa State at seven and a half you can get that at a decent number I like the over on Iowa lot of Buzz about Iowa I know you guys are gonna laugh I look at that game and I look at their schedule and I think that there's going to be a bit of a transition period for some of the teams out west playing against the physicality that is Iowa they're going to slow the game they're going to put you to sleep and they're going to make you greedy because you might only get 55 snaps offensively whereas in 23 when you're playing against Pack 12 foes guess what you're getting 80 85 snaps a game offensively so that pace is going to be unique and I like what their schedule is how many times Joe I know you've looked at it how many times on the schedule right now do you consider Iowa to be a dog at this point I got him in one game they they there's a lot to like especially with fence being out as the offensive coordinator because if you can modernize that offense even 5% it would go a long way with this defense the one concern the one concern is the ones score game record they won all their ones score games last year but to your point the schedule sets up nice considering what a lot of teams are going to be dealing with in um in in the transition over to the Big 10 you could end up getting an awful draw they ended up doing pretty well they really did love and I also Do not sleep on Rutgers if you want some cash keeping in the Big 10 I love ruers Yeah and we've talked about this perception of ruter is that they're a bottom tier Big 10 team not saying perception isn't reality but I also acknowledge that in a divisionist big 10 the world just got a whole lot easier for ruter they bring back a ton of production they have an identity they want to run the football they're going to be tough as Nails defensively and I think the one position that was a major liability last year was quarterback and with all due respect to whimet he completed 47% of his passes it's just not good enough and I think that aan cak Manis while not a superstar will be a little more efficient to take some of the pressure off that run game and their schedule extremely manageable I even think they could get their run in the non-conference if you look their non-conference record the last two years really really impressive especially against the spread they get Virginia Tech in the non-conference like I wouldn't be shocked if they got that one it wouldn't wouldn't surprise me so that's another team so normally normally by this point the bad numbers have been hammered into shape that one is still there at six and the juice is reasonable that's the surprise to me it feels like not enough people have woken up to the fact that Ruckers is better and the schedule relative to the rest of the Big 10 is a phenomenal layout for them I you would have figured by now they'd have gone to six and a half or heavily Juiced it like they did with the Texas under they haven't they haven't I'm I'm surprised by that are you just try trying to talk me out of it is that what you're saying talking me out of it hey Vegas knows they're just baiting you at that six that's fine all right well we'll see I'm I'm I'm quite the opposite I very much like that wager Gregory okay I'm glad all right let's move into a couple of you said Joe that you were on a bunch of yes no bets for the playoff but I want to go to Tyler on this one first Tyler is there anything you like right now as far as pre-season hey I like soand so to win the Big 12 the ACC are there any plays you can get there with good value in the SEC Stanford Steve and Joe were talking about this program uh down in Oxford Old Miss Jackson darts I know Good bets to win the SEC and why it’s Tennessee and Ole Miss L kein hasn't you know kind of gotten over the hump at the Collegiate level but there's a lot of Talent on that team despite the loss of quinan Jud Judkins in the backfield um Dart is a I think reasonable play right now if you had to get involved in the Heisman Market he should put up numbers and if Miss is able to get to that schedule with 10 or more wins they'd be a college football playoff qualifier and he'd kind of meet all of those criteria so I'm not I'm not afraid to throw in the SEC some money at teams like Old Miss and like Tennessee with Nico IAM malava I just kind of wanted to say been working on that but I hyp Hy's offense we saw average 46 points a game with hen hooker I don't think Joe Milton is even though he's been impressive as his preseason debut in the NFL was that great of a college quarterback because of some accuracy issues but we saw What hypo's offense can do if he has a a good college quarterback and I think IAM malava can be that after what we saw in the Chee at bold the four touchdowns he's got very very dangerous uh legs and his ability to run where hooker was probably the better natural passer uh IAM alava can probably do a little more damage with his leg so if that offense gets back up to 40 45 points per game James Pierce could be the number one overall pick in the NFL draft as an edge rusher there if that defense uh is able to kind of um be middle of the pack so to speak in the SEC I think those two teams that are not Georgia that are not Alabama that are kind of in that second tier of the SEC with me going into this season with an Embrace Embrace change type of mentality those are two programs I'd be willing to right now throw a little bit of money on given that I see some value there Joe what about you with some preseason stuff to win a conference anything you like Utah obviously still at plus money they're not GNA play Kansas State I won't you know bend your ear on that one anymore I think you've heard just about enough of me on the youth this season uh to go back to Miami again in the ACC I think there's an opport there they're still sitting out there plus money a lot of people love Florida State uh again it's one of those we saw it last year so it should happen again Norvell hits the transfer portal really hard he's fantastic at that but they still lost a lot five starters on defense went in the NFL draft they lost their quarterback there's a lot they got to figure out and they're going to be on the road at Miami so that's when that sits there if you want to go deeper down Told you we went deep in the weeds - here’s a Texas State pick for y'all the board Texas state is just sitting there at 13 to1 to make the playoff and they are not a noticeable dog in any of the 12 games they have on their schedule you you could justifiably make the case Texas State's going to be a favorite in all 12 games and at 13 to one to make the playoff one of the non- power four highest rated teams has to get there Liberty's obviously the favorite Memphis uh Texas San Antonio are three teams that people like but Texas State at 13 to1 is a strong play there in my opinion Notre Dame is good money to make the CFP and then Notre Dame to make the playoff you're laying juice on that but you can always get out of it in some regard if you don't like the way it goes with A&M but if they get past A&M the schedule sets up so nicely and with Den Brock coming over from LSU as the offensive coordinator and Riley Leonard transferring in at quarterback it feels like they're set up really nicely they should be a favorite in all 12 the one where they're not going to be double digits outside of A&M is the USC game but they're probably still laying six on the road so assuming there's not some sort of crazy variance with injuries or one- score games Notre Dames going to be there in that final 12 gentlemen this was awesome man we so appreciate your time today can't wait to do it again we'll have you back throughout the season make some more picks and and dive into some of your thought process of how you're going to play some of these things on the stretch but Tyler Joe awesome as always really appreciate you guys of course thanks for having us on yeah thanks GRE that'll do it for us here at always college football continue to ask all of you to like rate and subscribe to the show wherever you get the show we very much appreciate your support here in the early early part of the season it's been a chaotic couple weeks tons of downloads tons of people joining the show for the very first time we just ask that you continue to like rate subscribe all those wonderful things but more importantly tell your friends we are doing a lot of things to try to get you prepared for the college football season we feel like we do it as well as anybody so we look forward to having you back with us when we welcome in a couple nice guests here in the next couple weeks as we continue to steam ahead just now N9 days 10 days away from the college football season officially getting underway so for all of us here at always college football for Mark Jake Jack the other Jack I'm Greg we hope you have an amazing day and remember it's always college football hey guys it's Greg Mary thanks for watching Always college football make sure you like rate and subscribe to ESPN's YouTube channel and wherever you listen to your podcast