Josh Pate's Ohio State Win-Loss Prediction + Big Questions (Late Kick Cut)

Intro Ohio State full preview here here's what you need to know over under win total for the Buckey 10 and a half they got the best odds to win the Big 10 they've Odds also at FanDuel got the best odds to go undefeated even better than Liberty and that market has shifted a little bit in the past couple of weeks they got the number two odds to win the whole thing behind only Georgia I think I know with Ohio state that this is the most talented roster in the country you could make an argument for a couple of other teams but I think this is the most talented roster in the country and the key I think I know is in the guys they got to come back because while a lot of folks have been focused on the transfer portal editions they got key players to come back it reeks of what Michigan had happened the year before that's not a comparison I know they want to hear there but in terms of broad stroke yeah it is a comparison that I'll make I also think I know this could be the best defense in the country and if it's not it'll be really really close in any key metric this year they brought key players back and then they added the best defensive player in the country potentially in Caleb DS from Alabama and the third thing I think I know is they got will Howard out of the transfer portal from Kansas state will Howard needs to manage he does not need to carry that's the luxury of being the quarterback at Ohio State you have Got Talent everywhere the likes of which you may never see again and you definitely won't have talent edges against your opponent ever again like you will playing at Ohio State I don't care if you go on to play 10 years in the league you'll never have a week by- week Edge in Talent like you do at Ohio State that means you don't have to carry it's not like shador Sanders at Colorado where everyone looks to him and says bail us out shador you got to go win the game for us no one's going to tell Will Howard you got to go win the game for us they're going to tell him you need to work within the system you got two potential thousand yard backs here you've got a true freshman who's an Big Questions alien out wide at wide receiver and then you got ones who are already here who are really good that defense may not give up more than 11 or 12 points a game don't lose game don't make bad decisions in big games don't turn the ball over that's what will Howard has to do if he does that they can win a National Championship the big questions at Ohio State how improved is that offensive line it's the thing every Buckeye fans checking on when they read practice reports right now because you know what they should be able to do I'm going to use a dirty word here again they should be able to do the same thing Michigan did last year Ohio State may have the best defense in the country Ohio state has got sledgehammer are running backs that don't sacrifice athleticism for physicality they've got good receiver play they should be able to budging people if they want to though but you got to have the offensive line to do it so should be is the key phrase there will they be able to does this team have a bully mentality that's another question I have that's more a DNA thing you know I keep going back to what they should be able to do had Ryan Day on the show last week and I asked him when you got out of last season and you self scouted and evaluated your program were there areas where you said we've got to change which every coach does every year but I was specifically wondering if you know you've got the Ryan Day Interview Personnel to do whatever you want to do if you know you got the strength and conditioning and nutrition at your disposal to mold your team into any kind of team you want it to be do do you want to be a fighter jet or do you want to be a wrecking ball or maybe just both uh there there needs to be a little more Wrecking Ball mentality to that team this year because there's no excuse for Ohio State to ever be the second most physical team on the field there's no excuse in the fourth quarter for a team to ever be confident they can just drive on Ohio State and bleed the clock there should be confidence that Ohio State can do that to someone else and number three when we start to learn more about this team when we see them a few games in they're going to be winning because their schedule's favorable early on but by the time they go to Oregon are there some specific defensive matchups that some of these teams find they can exploit there's not going to be a glaring weakness it's Ohio State they won't have glaring weaknesses but like the number two Corner position um do you find that tight ends can have favorable matchups against outside linebacker that that sort of thing it's going to matter way more down the road than it would matter against akan for example the coaching staff here is really good uh our internal grades have this is a top five staff overall that is not just Ryan day that's down the flowchart from Ryan Day they've got good continuity it's top five overall staff and that ocdc combo is Elite Chip Kelly we've got him graded as a top 15 offensive coordinator now he's been a head coach for a while but just in terms of play calling Chip Kelly's a top 15 guy and Jim nolles is way up there as well that's an elite ocdc combo and I'm really looking forward to Chip Kelly this year and what he does with what he has the schedule overview it's a very easy non-conference so unlike Michigan playing Texas in week two we don't have that on this schedule for them they got akan Western Michigan Marshall and then they dive into conference play so at Oregon at Penn State in Michigan is why this is not an easy schedule at first glance you look at it and you say oh these are layups some of them are some of them aren't two of their three biggest games are on the road at Oregon at Penn State Michigan uh two of those three are on the road and they all also get Iowa Week 1 2 3 4 five and then they play Nebraska after a bye and it's not that I'm telling you watch out but I'm telling you watch out for those defenses you know CA if they don't have things rolling offensively Nebraska can put you in a bad spot they may not be able to score on you but Nebraska's defense and Iowa's defense can put you in a bad spot so those will be good tests for that offense if for nothing else best case worst case most likely record scenario here Surefire there's a 12 and0 in the cards for Ohio State if everything goes well if we simulated the season 100 times there's a 12-0 there I think the worst they could do this year is nine and three and I think the most likely record outcome is 11 and one I leaned on 12-0 however you're not going to have a most likely 12-0 when you got those two games on the road JP polls got them at number two to start the season the model loves Ohio State I got him going 11-1 in the regular season what we don't do is we don't put every one of your games up on this board behind us and predict which game you're going to lose I don't think there's any skill in that whatsoever I've always thought that's kind of a dumb exercise I thought it you guys can do it if you want to however I do think 11- one is where I've got them and then I think they're in the playoff and I think they probably win the Big 10 and Off to the Races and could very well win the national championship [Music]