Florida State vs Georgia Tech Week 0 Bets - College Football Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS it is officially week zero college football is here um starting on Saturday the 24th got a good game to start nice ACC game we got Florida state Georgia Tech let's get to it welcome to [Music] the [Music] the S hey hey get this sew all right Florida state Georgia Tech this game's overseas in Dublin Ireland uh Georgia Tech currently sitting as 11 Half Point dogs there are 11s out there if you look total sitting at 552 let's take a quick look at the spreadsheet and according to the model we got a lean on the noes here very slight lean in fact pretty much right on par with wether Sports books have it according to the model we're looking at 32.7 21.1 Florida State not a ton of head-to-head history here uh these two teams have only met four times in the last 10 years Georgia Tech's actually three and one against the spread in their last four matchups against Florida State um they haven't seen him since 2022 and Florida State beat the hell out of him in 2022 uh Georgia Tech took the two before that but we're talking about 2020 2015 uh so definitely a little ways back so let's go ahead and get into this one and we'll start with the Florida state offense uh numbers aren't crazy looking from last year now obviously these are definitely going to be skewed by the end of the season when Jordan Travis got hurt uh Road maker took over his quarterback and I mean obvious obviously we all know was talked about ad nauseum Florida State offense wasn't the same after Jordan Travis so those last few games at the end of the season definitely skewing these numbers a bit although I will say Florida State offense not quite as explosive as you thought they were last year I mean yeah if you look at the the the schedule and the game logs are putting up big numbers 31 points 37 points 40 points they were scoring some points and their offense was definitely good but there's a few games in there maybe a little bit misleading I mean Boston College they won 3129 they only had like 350 yards of offense in that game they also scored 31 points in the Clemson game and got that win but seven of those points were in overtime they only had 311 yards of offense in the game and in fact if Clemson Miss makes that short field goal at the end of the fourth quarter there they lose so look I'm not saying Florida State's offense was bad by any means um just maybe the the point totals in some of those games a little bit misleading but we're not talking about last year's Florida State offense we're talking about this year's Florida State offense uh returning production isn't looking great 90th in the country in returning production 10 returning starters five on offense five on defense couple big ones gone on the offensive side Jordan Travis quarterback obviously on the Jets now running back Trey Benson he's on of the Cardinals so both those guys are in the NFL now taking over at quarterback for Florida state is dju as I'm sure you know coming off a good season with Oregon State honestly backto back Good Seasons I feel like dju may have got branded a little bit unfairly based on that first year as a starter at Clemson I mean it's put into to a really tough spot it was Deshawn Watson then Trevor Lawrence and then dju in his freshman year he came in one game and threw five touchdowns so when he took over uh the starting job in his sophomore year everyone was like oh here it is here's the next number one pick in the NFL just had really big shoes to fill in obviously his sophomore year with Clemson wasn't great I mean it wasn't good at all and he kind of got unfairly branded as a bad quarterback uh but since then he had a good season his junior year at Clemson and then he played great with Oregon State last year well he played really well let's not say great but he played really well last year at Oregon State obviously he was throwing against Pack 12 defenses but still let's give him some credit uh here's the graphic right here his first year with Clemson 55.6% completions nine touchdowns nine picks just six yards per completion look at those numbers in comparison to his last two years his last year with Clemson and then last year with Oregon State uh no question night and dat difference he's definitely taking a big step forward and regardless of what you personally think of dju they like him a lot uh he's definitely a highly touted recruit here and they think he's going to be great so they got the quarterback they wanted now one thing that might concern me a little bit when it comes to dju um and maybe I'm being a little bit overcritical here but last year with Oregon State despite having a good season and he was he was solid last year he really didn't show up in the big games uh you can see in the graphic here I have these are the last two games of the Season arguably the two biggest games of the year back to back Oregon's passing offense just wasn't there9 942 yards I mean 5.72 yards per pass attempt EPA success rate I mean none of that looks good passing game wasn't there when it mattered in those two games and that was kind of a pattern throughout the whole season I mean he struggled in the Utah game he really struggled on the road of Washington State uh he was also terrible against San Diego State not that really fits the mold of a big game but really didn't play well in that game either so definitely not something I'm thrilled about um although I will say the year before that with Clemson he showed up in some big games for them so I like I said I might be a little bit overcritical here I thought it was interesting enough to point out but I think everyone would agree that the bigger concern here for Florida State's offense is the weapons they're all gone Keon Coleman NFL Johnny Wilson NFL Jem Bell the tight end NFL those three guys combined for 130 catches 1700 well almost 1,00 yards receiving and 15 touchdowns by far the three leading receivers on the team all gone to the NFL now it's Florida State they've got talent they'll be fine but remember we're not handicapping the Florida state season right now we're handicapping the Florida state Georgia Tech game in particular and it's week zero in Dublin so yeah new quarterback bunch of new receivers playing in offense they've never played in before definitely don't like that at all and on top of that they got a new guy in the back field as well uh like I mentioned earlier Trey Benson gone to the NFL he's on the Cardinals they bring in royell Williams from Alabama now I mean this dude's really good he could be one of the better running backs in the the country here so by no means I'm I saying ah they they lost all the talent at running back sure this dude's going to be a Savage this year but again we're not handicapping the season we're handicapping week zero in Dublin and again just a throw it on there running back quarterback receiving Court coaching staff all that have never played a football game together now for the good news if you're a Florida State fan uh the Georgia Tech defensive numbers from last season good Lord um this defense wasn't good well well this run defense was really bad pass defense was bad too but not quite as bad the run defense holy hell 127th in yards per car allow 123rd in run defense success rate so right off the bat you know Georgia Tech needs to improve that run defense and look they made some moves to do so whether or not it's successful whether or not it's going to be successful in week zero that's a much different question but they did bring in Tyler santui to coach the defense that's the DC from duke last year with Mike Elco Duke had a Savage run defense last year look at these defensive numbers from Duke last season with Tyler sanui at DC now to be fair it's Mike elco's defense and he was the DC so who knows how much credit Tyler sanui deserves for this but he was the defensive coordinator on this defense and this is with Duke's Talent by the way Duke isn't top 15 recruiting program at all so to put up these kind of numbers in the ACC with duk's type of talent this is impressive man 20th in points per game allowed 34th and opponent yards per play allowed this is a really good defense specifically they were great against the Run now we do have to mention though that norell and this Florida State offense saw this exact Duke defense with DC Tyler santui coaching it last season and didn't really have a ton of problems moving the football on him 4.8 yards per carry I mean it's not completely terrible it's not good s like they ran all over him uh 4.8 yards per carry with the Georgia Tech defense they would take that trust me uh 420 yards a total offense final score 3820 FSU 1 even that final score is a little deceiving because Florida State in their first two drives of the game drove down the field and then turned it over on Downs so Duke was actually up 10 nothing still lost by 18 that's not a great look for Tyler santui and the Georgia Tech defense although I will say this was last year's Florida State offense with Jordan Travis and their full offensive line and Trey Benson and the receivers Johnny Wilson the tight end Keon Coleman Jim I mean they had everybody that was a loaded offense this year's Florida State offense looks nothing like that also this game was at home in alasse so there was definitely some favorable circumstances there for Norville and the Florida state offense I don't think this is a terrible look the reason I brought that up is in my opinion that's the question we need answered here if we can answer that question we can place a winning bet on this game can Georgia Tech defensive front keep Florida State's Run game somewhat in check and I'm not talking about 3.8 yards per carry can they hold him to 4.5 yards per carry can they keep Florida state from absolutely gasing them on the ground because with dju new receivers new running back all that on the road overseas in Dublin if they're not ripping north of 5 yards per carry I don't think they have any business laying 11 and a half points honestly so can Georgia Tech's defensive front keep the Florida state run game somewhat in check now when we pull up the metrics from Georgia Tech defensive front from last season I mean it's not a great look here I mean 129th in defensive line yards 126th in power success rate specifically they got gassed when they played good teams too um this is against the six teams with the with the the best offenses on their schedule it was their four ranked opponents and I threw Clemson and uh Louisville in there so against those teams 5.97 yards per carry 51.2% run defense success rate is terrible 3.85 defensive I mean this is so bad so Georgia Tech whenever they saw a decent offense got gashed last year definitely not a great look but I will say there is a glimmer of hope when it comes to the Georgia Tech defensive front so this is their projected je depth chart here now those two names highlighted in Gold those are their transfers Thomas Gore came in from Miami Romo height came in from USC so they got two starters on the defensive line coming from Big programs Zeke Biggers was there last year so they return a starter they bring in two transfers that they think they're going to hit on and then that guy sane uh yanjuan right there you can see number 32 he was supposed to be a starter last year he missed the entire season with an injury so he'll probably end up starting on the end as well well this defensive line personnel-wise isn't nearly as bad as it was last year in fact the guy that was projected to be the starter last year as of right now he's listed as a backup so that just shows you the state of the Georg Tech defensive line certainly in a much better position right now than it was last year so can the Georgia Tech defensive front keep Florida State's Run game from absolutely slaughtering him yeah there's a lot of things going their way here I mean it's overseas they got two new transfers in Big Time transfers a defensive coordinator in there specializes in stopping the run against a Florida State offense playing their first game with nothing but new pieces yeah I don't think it's crazy um now on the other side of the field this is where it's all positive for Georgia Tech I mean this offense looks really good first of all they were good last year top 25 rushing attack in the country last year 13th in yards per carry 17th in rushing success rate 18th in effective rush they got the quarterback they want he's back Haynes King 61.6% completions over 2800 yards 27 touchdowns through the air last year turnover is a bit of a problem something he definitely needs to work on but no question this kid is talented he can run he can sling it they got their guy in the backfield back Jamal Haynes star running back uh what I really like about Jamal Haynes is he seemed to heat up as the season went on you can see his splits right here last six games of the year averaging 99 rushing yards per game 6.6 yards per carry and by the way it's not like Georgia Tech schedule got easy in the second half of the Season at all I mean they went to Clemson they played Georgia the best team in the country played North Carolina in there so it wasn't that the schedule got easier Jamal Haynes just seemed to figure it out he was one of the better backs in the country second half of the year so they got their quarterback back they got their star running back back now as far as their receivers I don't really know much about their receiving quarter they lost their tight ends they had two tight ends they like they lost them both um but the offensive line four or five starters back and the fifth starter is a transfer from Middle Tennessee who started last year so they bring four of five starters back and then bring in a starter with FBI starting experience to play the fifth spot so the offensive line should only get better as far as the Georgia Tech offense nothing but thumbs up here I mean it was a great offense last year should be even better this year but let's be real we can't sit here and pretend that they don't have their hands full here against Florida State I mean one of the best defenses in the country last year probably the best pass defense in the country see their defensive numbers I mean pretty Elite looking across the board also this game being in Dublin Florida state was one of the best road defenses in the FBS last year their numbers away from home great uh certainly we you like to see if you're Georgia Tech also it gets even deeper uh Georgia Tech passing much better against Zone coverage than man coverage see they're passing against man coverage pretty ugly looking the reason I bring that up what does Florida State like to do run a shitload of man coverage they were 18th in the country in man coverage frequency last year top 10 numbers across the board when playing man coverage so I definitely don't like any of that uh here are their defense of line numbers I mean not absolutely Elite but certainly towards the top of the country uh no question Florida State defensive numbers great across the board but again just like their offense it's not that I don't think they have talent it's just so many new faces I mean a majority of the good defensive pieces on that Florida State team last year are gone now from what I'm reading they are deep as hell and they should certainly be a top 10 top 15 defense again but I'm not going to sit here and pretend like I know all these new pieces taking over for Florida State I'm just reading opinions from people I trust telling me that they should be good but again we're not talking about Florida State the season we're talking about week zero in Dublin and all I'm hearing is a bunch of new faces so now these these guys saw the field last year by the way Florida state had a big time defensive rotation so it's not like completely new guys that have never started a game before they should be fine I'm a lot more worried about the Florida state offense than I am the defense I'm sure they're loaded with talent and they'll be great again but week zero against an offense in Georgia Tech that I think he going to be really good I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia Tech's able to move the chains here and there and put some points up in this with which is why as far as betting this game I took them I took the 11 and 1 12 points and I already bet this I took Georgia Tech Plus 112 laid it down second bet I made of the year just placed it felt good felt good to be placing a college football bet uh yeah so I already locked that in um if you want to see all the bets I currently have open I changed it from last year uh so last year I used to do blog posts with my bets this year it's just an open bet ticket so if you go on the website and you click open bets or open football bets or something it says it'll s you'll see all the bets I have open at that time which I feel is much more efficient and and from what I've asked around and people we're like yeah that's a much better way to do it so if you're interested in that head over to Kyle kms.com uh if you sign up for sauce Network plus you can participate in the betting League uh join the Discord all of that uh so head over to that if you're interested live shows 400 p.m. eastern time 11 4 p.m. eastern time during the weekdays 11:00 a.m. eastern time on the weekends if you're able to make it would love to see in the comments let's have ourselves a great football season good to be back almost fall missed you guys let's go