Josh Pate's College Football Playoff & National Title Predictions (Late Kick Cut)

final playoff predictions so to get you up to speed with where things are I did these a month ago and then I woke up like a week ago and I was not happy with the predictions I put out a month ago so I want you to scrap them forget them erase the ET a sketch in your memory Clean Slate this is what I'm going to war with I have got Ohio State winning the Big 10 I have got Texas winning the SEC I have got Miami winning the ACC and I've got Oklahoma State winning the Big 12 the reason I mentioned those conference Champs is because they will have the top four seeds and therefore the first round buys that's the order I've got them in Ohio State Texas Miami Oklahoma State I've got those as your 1 two 3 4 and of course in this world in this 12 team playoff remember how the bracket is structured we do not Reed after every round so it is guaranteed that Ohio state is the one seed they'll play the winner of eight versus nine just keep that in mind because that's going to be a really big talking point down the road all right so here's how the full bracket looks I'm GNA tell you the other teams I've got in this thing now Oregon loses the Big 10 championship game I've got him at five Bama loses the SEC Championship game I've got him at six FSU loses the ACC Championship game I've got him at seven so the thinking here and I don't know that this is the way it's going to be but my thinking and I think the way it's got to be for the committee to maintain any kind of you know Integrity is they've got to reward teams that made the conference Championship Game you can't have Oregon and Alabama losing that thing and then dropping below teams that didn't play in conference title weekend so even though they got another loss on the resume I don't think they're dropping very far Georgia at number eight is not a conference title loser but I don't think the big 12's conference title loser will get the same treatment so I think those those big three there Oregon Bama FSU that's five six and seven I got Georgia at number eight because I think Georgia is going to have a couple of losses on their resume that keep them from Atlanta but those losses are probably going to be to either the teams that were in Atlanta or one of the two teams that was in Atlanta and like an old Miss so George is going to have a really strong resume number nine through 12 I've got Penn State as a nine seed Penn State has a Penn State year where they they drop one or two games to the big opponents I've got them I think losing one of them this year uh but by and large they're a good team I think the offense will be better they'll be a solid nine seed Old Miss I've got him in the playoff don't have him in the conference title game anymore got him in the playoff at number 10 Notre Dame I have as a two- loss team I think that'll be good enough to back them into the playoff as an 11 seed and I am kicking Liberty out of this thing I was listening to someone talk the other day and it kind of dawned on me that not only does this committee need to send a message with rewarding you for playing for a conference title they've got to send a message about strength of schedule and there is no way that you guys need to be letting that Liberty team in there I know that Liberty fans I know you guys tried to schedule some power four teams and they said no and you're like that's not our fault well that's true but it's not the committee's fault either like we have to go on what we have to go on so Memphis goes and plays FSU this year you know I think there's a world where a 10 and two Memphis ends up being ranked over Liberty and should be because that's the disparity and strength of schedule so there you go Penn State Old Miss Notre name Memphis that's 9 10 11 and 12 this is what that means the bracket would look like and uh brother we got some matchups here that means we get Georgia versus Penn State and it would be Penn State at Georgia in round one we would have Memphis at Oregon in a body bagging most likely more on that in a second we would have Old Miss at FSU so Rebels going down to Tallahassee for round one uh weather figures to not be a factor there figures to be pretty comfortable actually and how about just going ahead and sending Notre Dame to Tuscaloosa for round one now there are going to be people in the comment section who say Oh Mr anti- playay off expansion you sound hypocritical you sound like you're into these matchups I am I'm very into the matchups like I've told you repeatedly the playoff as a product is going to be amazing what we trade off to get there is not amazing and that's a whole another conversation so forget about that for now if we're talking about the playoff this is pretty incredible Memphis at Oregon Notre Dame at Alabama Old Miss at Florida State Penn State at Georgia I'm going to tell you right now who I take here i' take Oregon over Memphis I would take Alabama over Notre Dame I would take Old Miss to go into Tallahassee and beat Florida State and I would take Georgia over Penn State so three of four home teams win there that means you got four SEC teams in the quarterfinals and something Everyone's Watching is that 12 versus 5 so there's a lot of debate right now and the stat crowd would tell you one thing and I think the gutfield crowd would tell you another thing so if you if you listen to a data analyst they will absolutely tell you just unequivocally there's no debate here it always behooves you to get the number one seed and get a first round by than it does to have to be the five seed and play one more game then there's another person who comes in and Colin could you do me a favor throw up the bracket you just threw up again because there's another person who would come in and they' say okay I'll Grant you Oregon there is the five seed yeah they would have to play one more game than Ohio State but look at Oregon's draw Oregon would play the FCS team or the or the G5 team Memphis in this case could be someone else they'd be solidly favored they'd get him at home they'd win the game they'd play them then they'd get the lowest ranked buy team which is probably the Big 12 team so you ask yourself would you rather be Ohio State and have to play Georgia one time or would you rather be Oregon and play a G5 team and then a big 12 team some years I think it may be a wash some years in fact many years maybe it makes sense to have the buy but if you're just telling me the totality of playing one more game is what disproportionately tilts it I'm going to tell you Case by case you may be wrong on that and I'm going to tell you right now if Liberty is in that spot instead of Memphis for example you absolutely give me orgon draw I'll absolutely take one more game playing it at home I don't care what the data says uh because I know why that data says what it says the biggest risk to me here is added risk of injury I'm going to accept it and I'm going to take on Liberty or Memphis and then I'm going to happily take on the Big 12 champ over having to play Georgia in round two or a team that beat Georgia so anyway that's a side conversation but it will be a main piece of the conversation come playoff time so let's move on now I just filled that in here's where I've got us going after Georgia beats Penn State after Oregon beats Memphis after Old Miss beats FSU after Bama Beats Notre Dame that gives us our next round and that is is Ohio State versus Georgia now keep in mind because we can't have too many nice things in this sport none of the rest of these games are at home they're all on neutral sites because folks who really don't care about you much have to make their money Ohio State versus Georgia is a national championship game basically uh just like it was a couple of years ago in the semi-final game we've got Oregon against Oklahoma State I would have Texas versus Old Miss here I'd have B versus Miami here I am going to take in this order Ohio State Over Georgia I would take Oregon over Oklahoma State I would take Texas over Old Miss and I would take Alabama over Miami if that's real those are some heavy hitter matchups that is that is a heavyduty lineup of games there and um I honestly where's your biggest upset Oklahoma state if they beat Oregon because it's the big 12 over the Big 10 I think fairly sizable if Miami were to take down Bama that watching that Personnel man would be fascinating but Ohio State Georgia is like a main event national title level game that's happening in what the the quarterfinal so again you lock down that one seat at your own Peril you gonna be playing someone good that one seat is going to be he's goingon to be rested but he's going to be playing someone good out the gate okay now let's go to the uh semi-finals your final four let's just say it pans out this way friendss your final four according to my bracket is Ohio State versus Oregon and Texas versus Alabama now Josh that sounds familiar it is because that's a rematch of your big 10 title game and that's a rematch of your SEC Championship game and since I don't think there's any skill in changing your pick here aside from flipping a coin if I took Ohio State against Oregon on a neutral field a few weeks earlier I'll take Ohio State again if I took Texas over Alabama on a neutral field a few weeks earlier I'll take Texas over Alabama again which would mean I've got Texas versus Ohio State in the national championship game just like I did a month ago in my predictions that hasn't changed and just like I had a month ago I don't think I'm going to change my pick so I'm going to take Ohio State Over Texas to win the National Championship now um as the pretend confetti Rains Down Over Me couple of questions here let's just say it were to play out like this what does the rematch crowd say there was a crowd that did not like that we had rematches like in 2011 in the BCS game or in 200 what was it 21 you had the SEC title game and then George abama right there in India again a month later for the national title and we need to expand the playoff well what would the rematch crowd say if an expanded playoff just led to more of the same that you had seen a month earlier number two and this is the more important conversation would this lead anyone or here's a better question will the way the playoff plays out this year lead anyone in a position of power to rethink the buy structure because the bu structure is garbage in this format I was listening to our buddies over at college football nerds talk earlier today they're right uh they always nail this kind of stuff like I go full add on this I I lose my attention span when we're talking about brackets and rules and stuff like that but even I get this one this is messed up and what's going to end up happening is you're going to have people like me who say there should be no guarantee that those buys are reserved for conference chance you should just take the best 12 and I don't even want Auto bids period but keep your G5 Auto bid if you need to but just let the best four have the buys but then I know what the counter is you don't have to yell at me the counter is well if you do that you take away the motivation and incentive to win the conference Championship and you've got to you've got to maintain the sanctity of the conference Championship to which I say look at this piece of paper I've got two rematches of conference title games happening a month later so given this scenario what Integrity of Conference titles did we maintain if you go and play it and risk injury in doing so in Atlanta and Indianapolis and then a month later you're just playing each other again anyway and by the way you're not guaranteed to have the same winner in those games so not only is the value of it deteriorated the sanctity of the outcome may be deteriorated oh by the way one of these matchups features teams playing for the third time in a given year so is there a debate about that can't know because it's the first time we've been around this marryg go round so we can't really know what it's going to sound like but that's what I got right now I got Ohio State versus Texas the big 10's best and the sec's best shocker is what I think the matchup will be in the national title game and I'll go with the Buckey and uh let me remind you Colin keep that up for just a second immunity let me just remind you if this were to happen Okay I want you to think about the Ryan Day Roller Coaster here if this plays out presumably you just watched Ohio State beat Michigan then beat Oregon then beat Georgia then beat Oregon again and then beat Texas by my count Mr K win the big game wins five of them in a row and what are you saying about Ryan day then well because I know what I'm doing I'm having Colin and Jesse cut up the 37 times that we told you he eventually would so that's what I would do some of you guys need to find a hole to dig and crawl in if he were to do this if he goes on this run now if he loses to Michigan for a fourth consecutive year you reserve the right to throw this footage back in my face and All is fair in that case so there's my national champ the Ohio State buck guys my national champ [Music]