Ep 550: Week 2 Upset Alerts | Big Ten Catching SEC | FSU War Chant Drama | Billy Napier In Trouble?

see I get tired of college football Running Scared from the NFL but I can't do anything about that because I'm not the commissioner of this sport yet however when we tell the NFL we need a little time on Thursday night and they say no chiefs Ravens will go off as scheduled well what do we do we Flex in a way that only we could um update from the National Weather Service Chiefs Ravens in a weather delay hate it for you guys we're live as live can be it's Thursday night September 5th Year of Our Lord 2024 jam-packed haat top a stunning downtown Nashville Tennessee and proudly this side presented by Academy Sports and Outdoors we nailed just about every upset in the country last week so paper pop early here upset alert meter it's speaking again for a few of you I will talk about that I got a problem happening down in Tallahassee and it's not the 0 and2 start to FSU season it's something else that should never be an issue for Fu but it is we've got the Billy Napier stuff as well so I'm going to make a stop in the Sunshine State tonight uh cuick is in an airport somewhere and allegedly I mean my phone's going off as we speak allegedly we will get him on the show in like 30 minutes CU I have a few bones to pick with him we'll see it's up to the FAA at this point if cuck joins the show if not I'll probably just look at the live chat for a little while but we do have jamack show tonight Morton Illinois is tuned in El Paso Texas Meridianville Alabama Omaha Nebraska this time tomorrow night I won't be in an arbor I'll be in Detroit but it's not a long drive but I will be in a hotel room somewhere I will be sending out on Twitter and Instagram an alert for you that Friday night lons is imminent it'll be you know sometime later tomorrow night you got to be following on Instagram live that's the only platform I do that on I've got my reasons it's still late kick Josh over there by the way name name change pending it's still late kick Josh so make sure you following on Instagram cuz that is a very very fun thing we do on Friday nights all right let us dive into the show now this time last week we've had like uh N9 or 10,000 new Subs to the channel this week so a lot of you may not have watched the show this time last week and on every Thursday show I lead it with upset alerts but I don't typically do hey I think so and so is going to win out right although last week we did I do my overall concern level so for example like we're going to lead with NC State Tennessee in a second How concerned am I about Tennessee so Colin here's a good endpoint for you upset alert meter how concerned am I about some of these favorites NC State plays Tennessee this is this is in Charlotte so it's a neutral sight game I expect Tennessee to be well represented here according to our sources inside the secondary ticket Market World Tennessee about a nine and a half Point favorite right now at FanDuel all right I am thinking to myself as I'm walking around Centennial Park today in Nashville getting a mild sunburn in the process I'm thinking I love love Tennessee this week I me that's my chest I'm patting I love Tennessee this week but how would it go wrong if it went wrong How concerned am I well I'm about a six on the concern meter because I walked around that park today and I I worked up a scenario in my head where NC State doesn't just cover NC State wins outright I've got a ton of respect for Tony Gibson I've got a ton of respect for the NC State defensive support staff we've got them really really highly graded I talked to you about that like last week I talked to you about that Tuesday night Josh hpel is one of the top five OC's in the country Tony Gibson's way up there on the defensive side these two support staffs going against each other it's big league stuff and I want you to think about where niiko am malava Falls in all this so he's not becoming a star to me he's a star right now but he's still young he's still green he hasn't started a lot of games so sometimes you and I watch a guy go off and we think in highlight terms and we think this guy looks invincible but that's not always what opposing defensive coaches see on film so I view this NC State defensive staff as about as equipped as any staff they're going to face outside of like Georgia a little bit down the road of being able to expose potential flaws in Nico's game now it may be that they're wrong and they think they've got something and it's not there but what do you do against young guys the young quarterbacks out there the ones who were lighting up the stat sheet one of the first things you got to find out about these dudes is how well well do they stand up against pressure and so NC State fairly aggressive defensively anyway just their overall profile is that I really expect him to be aggressive now the tradeoff there and the reason everyone doesn't do it every down is because you can get burned doing that but I think NC state has to do that uh it's a massive moment for the program too it is a massive moment this is a game for Tennessee it's the game for NC State so if you if you get him rattled early and that Tennessee Run game is not just boom boom boom the way Josh hpel wants it to then you start asking well okay at that point we start to ask what's the weakness over on Tennessee side of things and perception it's the secondary which coincides and it meshes very well with the moves that NC State made in the portal and probably the overall strength of that offense and a veteran quarterback and Grayson McCall throwing to him and that's the wide receiver core if they can start to tilt the game in their favor um they wouldn't be totally uncomfortable ATT track meat but if they can tilt the game in their favor there is a world regret it though I might there is a world where NC State wins this game outright there's a reason this number is not 17 or 18 it's nine and a half now it's gone up this week I like Tennessee so but I've got a six on the concern meter for upset moving along a game I'll be at uh yes Colin the the whole new Saturday tour will be taking ourselves up to Ann Arbor as is everyone else this weekend there's the beautiful graphic we are proudly fueled on the road by our friends at Quick Trip Texas is still a 7 and a half Point favorite in this game over at FanDuel you notice how many seven and a halfs there are floating out there producer Jesse and I were looking at this earlier today so Tennessee was a seven and a half favorite they've bumped up to N9 and a half but Texas over Michigan 7 and a half we're going to do Oklahoma State Arkansas a little bit later Oklahoma State seven and a half Jesse what are the other two we looked at um I couple of seven and a halfs out there so there are a lot of these names or a lot of these Nebraska Colorado seven and a half so there a lot of these seven and a hooks just kind of floating out there consensus across the market and I know that your instinct is telling you that number looks low but history is saying if it looks too low if it looks too good to be true you know the rest there is this too good to be true I cannot think off the top of my head of a single person I've heard outside Michigan fandom pick Michigan to win this game this week I've heard very few people pick him to cover that includes me I took Texas to win I took Texas to cover I think Texas matches up very well with Michigan I think Michigan's going to struggle to score um which is not surprising but that means they just turn it into a fist fight but where I differ from a lot of folks is I think Texas ought to be well equipped to win that way as well I think Texas has built themselves to do that you get enamored with the Flash and the sizzle and there should be a whole lot of confidence in that outfit that they can win a physical game but if they didn't how would it happen and what is my concern level here my concern level is only a five I feel good about Texas but if Texas can't run the ball well and Michigan's been known to do that then the Texas offense has to rely on Quinn yers and a really deep stable of pass catchers and the thing about that is I've stood on the side line three years in a row and watched Ohio State try the same thing against this Michigan defense and it's failed three times in a row and that in some cases Unstoppable looking offense got stopped three years in a row so there's a world where Michigan does that here's the difference those Michigan teams were more offensively efficient than I think this Michigan team will be which is where my concern level goes down I could certainly see Texas getting their nose blooded I can see Texas maybe disappointing me a little bit in not being able to match the physicality what I have trouble seeing is Michigan scoring enough to make it matter when they give themselves the opportunity if I'm wrong there I'm wrong there but that's why my concern level is a little bit lower and like I said I the most fascinating thing to me in this game is number one can Michigan score offensively defensive scores you can't predict they're really good at it but no no one has a model that predicts that but the second part is if if it's 7 to three Midway through the second quarter you know Michigan has gotten the game out into the deeper water where they want it so so then can they score enough but the other thing is does Texas look uncomfortable there the implied total in this game Texas by about a touchdown and the total in the low 40s is like a 257 final that's the implied total from the odds makers which means if this thing's played in the upper teens low 20s Michigan feels okay I just think Texas should as well maybe I'm wrong there Kansas state is on the road do you know this do if you're a wildcat fan do you know where your team is a couple of nights from now well it's an early game but they're at two lane Kansas State's a nine and a half Point favorite at FanDuel right now at T Lane it's a noon kickoff eastern time so it's 11:00 a.m. local time kick there in New Orleans Kansas state did lose three games on the road last year um I'm I'm gonna say against better competition but tane is not a bad team Tan's been one of the best G5 outfits for a while and they got John sumerall from Troy now you may not know who sumerall is right now you will all due respect to tan because he'll be coaching a major power for program in the very near future if you want to buy stock in one of these guys John sura is the guy there is a big points per game differential gap for Kansas State in home games versus Road games it's always harder to play in college football on the road so a lot of teams have that in common it may be just a tick more glaring for Kansas State and a lot of that situational too sometimes it just so happens that you play better teams on the road because this is just over a couple years your stretch Tain is good enough talent-wise to hang here they are this coaching staff's very good it's a very underrated coaching staff because no one knows anything about them these G5 coaches who were who were ascending their profile is ascending they always Circle these moments because they know they don't get a lot of them and it's always fair or not the games they're judged on and they're they're like inferior from a talent profile standpoint so they got a punch above their weight but T Lane has a two-day rest Advantage here as well doesn't matter as much early in the season but we do pay attention to it my concern level here is a six I respect that team that much my concern level is a six for Kansas State favored by n and a half now the next game we have placed money on appstate at Clemson this line has come down since we bet it we got it at appstate plus 17 a half they are now a 17o dog on the road at Clemson now listen I'm not calling for the outright so my concern level albeit a four is not as high as some of these other games Clemson's favored for a reason it's a night game there um it's what we would call a Get Right game but I'm terrified to say that after what Florida state had happened to him the other night so if this were to be a really close game in the fourth quarter it would just be because Clemson's offense has done more of the same and that is be really really mediocre at best now K kumnick been a lot better quarterback at home than on the road a lot of college quarterbacks have that set about him again like I said with Kansas State it's just a little bit more glaring with the Clemson quarterback here low-scoring game if we get one provides a ton of variance that means every possession matters more that means every turnover gets magnified Joey agalar is a about a 300 yard per game passer for App State look there is a world where we watch this game and we end up saying I think app state had the better quarterback kumnick just been a disappointment the Clemson offense for for a while now has been a disappointment and if happens again App State can hang with them uh beating them would be a tall task but they can hang with him this is the same quarterback that I sat right there in Austin International Airport last year and watched beat Texas A&M it's the same one that's a lot of these pieces on this app State team went to Kyle Field last year and you may say well big deal I mean that was Jimbo on his way out that was a Texas ANM okay if you think 2024 Clemson's better than 2023 A&M okay I do too that's great for broad Strokes purposes there is a big game profile about this app State program not because of the Michigan win 15 decades ago but because there are players on this team that have gone on the road and drawn blood from a major power five opponent sometimes when you get that in your DNA it doesn't really it doesn't really leave and you're more comfortable in the moment so my concern levels of four but I think it Bears close watching and we love App State plus the points now the last one we have not talked about all week but I will hit right now Kansas is thought to be one of the contenders in the Big 12 which they are they're on the road at Illinois haven't heard anyone maybe short of Tom Fornelli talk about this game all week and I just assume Fornelli did Kansas is favored by five and a half at FanDuel right now my concern level is a seven I think Illinois can pull this off I think we may have been a year too early on Illinois it was kind of trendy to buy into them last year and I think a lot lot of folks may have been just a year or two early Luke altm in his last four games 70% completion guy 11-2 touchdown to interception ratio Illinois defense last week albeit against pretty inferior competition forced either a three-and out or a turnover on every possession in the first half and it is a brand new year with a lot of new pieces for Kansas there is a very distinct possibility that Kansas is on its way to becoming for all we know a big 10 Champion or Big 12 Championship Contender but in that World there exists a scenario where they are not yet what they will become because it's college football because this is a developmental program and therefore it's not just blindly reloading like it would be at Georgia or Ohio State or what have you so my concern level is a seven here I think there's a very very real possibility that Illinois is in this thing at the end which is implied in the point spread I think they can win a thing outright so those are some of the upset alert concern meters I have Jesse every game that we covered in that segment last week the underdog either covered or won outright correct correct okay so we did six of them last week we just did five of them let's see how that turns out Academy Sports and Outdoors Point Blank you need to stop there if you're going tailgating this weekend you need to stop there if you need a baseball bat for the little one who's about to take his first swings and t-ball you need to go there I can't guarantee you they have Halloween decorations but it wouldn't surprise me but fall Sports back to school stuff the weather's about to change do you know that it was in the mid 80s here today I have it on good authority it was in the upper 70s in an arbor today it's going to be in like the mid-50s for the game this Saturday it's going to be in the 40s in the morning when Uncle Dennis DD and I have to go out there in the big house for our live hits in the morning um cold is what we would call that where I'm from cold which means I got to go like in real terms I have to go to academy at some point tomorrow and gear up as I usually do for a fall I just didn't want to do that in early September but that's what happens when you head up to Big 10 country does this qualify by the way as a southern team going to play in cold weather does it qualify in mid-50s does that qual no it doesn't qualify I just wanted to make you laugh here's what qualifies Academy Sports and Outdoors whatever you need tailgating back to school back to sports academy.com if you can't get there in person they make the show free and we eternally appreciate them for that for the second year in a row I had something copied and pasted to put in the live chat and I whiffed on it Academy Sports will not whiff on you we appreciate them always have always will okay I need to type something right quick and it looks like this subscribe so the other day I told you guys a lot of you think you're subscribed and you're not I got flooded my inbox got flooded and a lot of you said you've been watching for years and you're ashamed to admit you found out you weren't subscribed I told you I told you I think big Tech's out to get us so don't let big Tech win just check and make sure you're subscribed it's free doesn't cost anything it just helps us so the streets have been talking in college football and I have put my ear to the streets and the streets have been saying something like this the Big 10 may have caught the SEC the Big 10 may be better than the SEC this year and I know why the streets are saying such things cuz I watched the same thing you guys did I watched USC mildly upset LSU the other night great game by the way it was a game so good I texted Colin I said I know we're not in the studio I know it's late Sunday night I'm just going to throw on a random orange shirt and film about a 10-minute reaction video can you upload it can you make me a thumbnail yes and he got it up immunity um great game and so that makes you wonder LSU SEC uh USC Big 10 as of five minutes ago and then you watch Penn State against West Virginia and Penn State and Drew Aller all of a sudden looked better than many expected them to look not necessarily the JP poll but many did not have Penn State as high as the JP poll so then we can't just stop there we got to continue right we got to irresponsibly just train headlong down this path of overreaction and I encourage that and that is is the Big 10 better than the SEC now I was willing to not talk about this tonight but enough of you asked about it enough of you flat out said it just defiantly said you believe this that I said well I don't believe it yet so I will put my numbers where my mouth is how do you measure conference strength the answer is not bold results the answer is not head-to-head uh that is not how you measure conference strength because it is not equally seated there is no world where it's perfectly measured because there is no world where I take the top 10 teams in the SEC and the top 10 teams in the Big 10 and have number one play number one and two versus two and three versus three and see what the head-to-head result is that would be a great opening weekend of college football and when I'm commissioner I may push for it but we don't have that the best I can do for you is I can tell you I ran through the model the 10 teams I went over to FanDuel and I saw which teams in order they had to win the national title and we took that as their implied power ratings in the conferences so we stacked the SEC number one through 10 and the Big 10 10 number 1 through 10 and I'm going to tell you right now so if we stack these conferences up if we stack the SEC and the Big 10 up right now I ran every one of these matchups through the model I'm going to tell you what our numbers would say but then I'm going to tell you what straightup FanDuel Sportsbook would say about these games too Georgia versus Ohio State Georgia minus four and a half Texas would be about a three-point favorite against Oregon Bama field goal favored against Penn State got ol Miss minus four against Michigan Tennessee minus one against the USU C the model is really high on USC LSU about a field goal over Iowa Missouri by a touchdown over Wisconsin A&M minus 9 against Washington Oklahoma minus 10 and a half against Maryland and Auburn minus 5 and a half against ruter the moral of the story there is in all 10 equally seated matchups the model would favor the SEC team which of course just draws cries of SEC bias and SEC favoritism because that's certainly what we're trying to do with this thing we're not trying to make money betting on this stuff we're just trying to favor a conference makes all the sense in the world anyway since I know that logic does not enter this equation much I hit up the people who actually do put numbers up that the market can bet on we hit our partners up at FanDuel and as part of our partnership I just get to ask them any question or any hypothetical at any time so I gave them these 10 matchups and I asked our folks over at FanDuel give me the hypothetical number on every one of these games and Friends I have now had director Colin put up a new graphic and he has highlighted everywhere that FanDuel disagrees with our model and you'll notice nothing changed on the screen because FanDuel sports book in these 10 hypothetical matchups would also either favor the SEC or would have a pick them there was one game Texas vers Oregon according to FanDuel on the neutral site would be a pick them game right now every other game at all nine of them they would favor the SEC team this doesn't mean anything because the games didn't actually happen all I'm trying to illustrate for you is the big 10's a very solid conference very solid clearly the number two conference in the country haven't quite surpassed the SEC yet at the top at the middle or at the bottom but you will notice something as colins showed you on that graphic you'll notice once you got to the bottom it wasn't like SEC team minus two touchdowns or more even with auburn rut the spread was inside a touchdown which means the depth of the Big 10 is probably improving pretty quickly because I think the SEC is still a deep conference so I think the depth of the Big 10 there's a lot to be said about that that's not the story though I don't think that's even the argument here the argument to me especially early in the season is not which conference is better you could talk all day about which conference is better you know what I care more about is I think there's this switch happening before for our eyes early in 2024 and that is the perceptions of the conferences are shifting think back in July if you looked at the SEC back in July coming out of media days you probably would have said I think Georgia's the favorite but boy they're like half a dozen teams that could really figure prominently into this conference Championship picture and maybe depending on how much you believed in LSU or Missouri you may go even seven deep or eight deep and if Georgia is off their aame a little bit then it's really game on and anyone could win this thing with the big 10 what did you say you probably said Ohio State's going to win it and if they don't Oregon's going to win and it that was the long and short of it no one gave Penn State a second look most people didn't give Michigan a second look all right so now we're one week two weeks for some into the season and Georgia has about a four-point gap in our model against the number two team in the country so Georgia at least early on May maybe elevating a little bit and maybe we get into a world where they they are just the preemptive favorite to win the SEC and maybe it's still competitive beneath them but Georgia is the clear favorite meanwhile in the Big 10 if Ohio State's got trouble on their offensive line if Oregon and I think they'll rebound this weekend but if they don't if Oregon's got trouble if they can't run the ball they got trouble on their offensive line and Penn State stock is way up offensively and USC's stock is way up defensively and we don't know about Michigan but we'll see them this weekend then you could have instead of in the SEC you may have a three or four-way dance for the Big 10 Championship or maybe deeper and no one expected that so yeah we can talk about which conference is better whatever that means I care about which one is more interesting and I care about which one's harder to figure out and it's still too early but we could find ourselves by Halloween saying wow the Big 10 I have no clue the SEC is kind of sorting itself out because that'll be after georg's gone to Alabama and after George has gone to Texas so we'll know by then what George is made of or they will have had a chance to validate what they already know they're made of so that's where I stand on the whole conference debate now Jesse I'm about to talk about something you let me know in my ear if we've heard from comrade cuck out there in where is he is he in Dallas he's in Dallas he's he's okay all right so we hear positive things in the ear right now about cubc I'm concerned about our little angel we'll see uh our friends at quick trip are fueling us they should be fueling you if they're not already download the app it's it's free and it helps you get free stuff we have been just throwing out free gas cards and I'm going to continue to do that because they've given me a sizable giveaway budget which was part of our agreement with them and it's been wonderful you know how powerful it makes you feel when anyone does anything you like you guys show up at college game day this weekend and hold up a p State sign behind the cameras or big noon and uh just free gas on the way free Chalice of Supremacy on the way but they are fueling the whole new Saturday tour we appreciate them so much this was a partnership that came together as organically as a partnership could ever come together and we've had a lot of fun with it and we're only a couple of weeks in so this will be more fun as the weeks go along we announce our next tour stop every Sunday night so like the next show we do live show will be Sunday night I'll tell you where we're going for week three and so on and so forth okay let's continue to roll on Billy Napier at Florida lost week one very embarrassing fashion it has not been a fun time down in Gainesville the fans are talking we got this question today from Michael he said is it in Billy Napier's best interest to keep starting DJ lagway at quarter back for the rest of the season to justify what his record may be and any hope of him moving into 2025 and Beyond so what's happening is Graham Merz is still in concussion protocol so DJ lagway came in the game late against Miami he will start this week against Samford and that's where we are right now so the fan base is asking because it's expected he'll light up Sanford it's expected that'll happen he'll probably look good this Saturday do you just keep him in there even when Graham M Merz is healthy I I think this is a lose lose situation for Billy Napier there's not a lot of winning going down there right now or going on down there right now I think it's a lose lose because Graham merch started for a reason because the coaching staff thought he gives the team the best chance to win DJ lagway is a true freshman now I'm not blindly saying that coaches never choose the wrong guy choosing the right quarterback is very inexact and sometimes you have a really talented guy come in and you don't trust him enough to give him the starting job but then when he goes in it's fireworks and it makes you look crazy for not having started him yeah that's happened before maybe it happens here gram merch was starting for a reason and so lagway is going to get a shot here probably do good early the most workable portion of their schedule is coming up there's a brick wall down the road but the most workable portion of their schedule's coming up so lagway was you get out of jail free card okay any any coach that's feeling heat knows if you got a talented backup quarterback that's the last bullet you can fire and normally when you're in trouble that's when you fire it well Billy Napier doesn't have that option he uh through a result of an injury is having to use DJ lagway now and if he's good then you can't bench him once Graham merch comes back cuz the last thing that people saw with Merz was you getting destroyed by Miami so you're not going to bench him and you're probably done because I don't think lagway nor merch is going to get to the back half of this schedule and save you Tennessee Kentucky Georgia Texas LSU Miss Florida State don't think so crazier things have happened but I don't think that'll happen but then if he's bad if lagway is bad there's no guarantee you really get a full gram merch back and then you've probably burned DJ lag's confidence early and you're out still and then he leaves at the end of the season via the transfer portal probably so what you do is you just make the best decision like you did earlier in the year and you trust your decision and you let the chips fall where they may if that means leaving DJ lagway in leave him in if that means playing Graham merch the second that the doctors clear him you play Graham Merz but there's a lot of mixing and matching going on down there right now which is never ideal especially in year three some of it is by necessity because when a quarterback get hurt gets hurt you can't have him playing okay Graham Merz got a concussion we can't have him in there I think there's a lot of mixing and matching from a play calling perspective on both sides of the ball happening behind the scenes so there's a lot that hasn't been figured out fully that's the bigger issue um figure the important stuff out and sometimes the Tumblers just fall into place don't and the SEC is no conference to try and find yourself Tennessee or Georgia or Texas or LSU those are no opponents to uh work on things against at least that's the way I see it uh Colin right before we go to cuck who I assume we have I assume okay we have him Colin can you tell me if you can do this tell me if you can show this tweet from Matt that I sent you earlier today if you can't okay you can all right show me this right quick I just want to encourage people I got this at 623 we went on the air at 7 Matt hit me and said my son is in second grade he had show int tell today he took a print out of chuggy who is our new mascot here and he evidently told his entire class about P State enough was said that the teacher messaged my wife and I asking where P state was located proud dad moment we are P State there is a chalice of Supremacy headed towards that young man's doorstep now I couldn't get the kids's address because laws and stuff but I got the dad's address I got Matt's address I talked to him earlier and a chalice of Supremacy is on the way that's why you can't buy those things you can earn chalai of Supremacy and follow the children the children have it figured out follow the children uh and then we're going to do the antithesis of that and we're going to bring in Cole cuck from an airport uh where is cuck right now is he joining us live from Dallas you're you've got the full headset on you look like you're in air traffic control what are you doing uh we were we were delayed leaving Birmingham apparently there was an IT failure SL shutdown on American Airlines uh in Birmingham so uh we missed our connection here in Dallas we're going to wait uh about an hour before we go get another one the people around me are very annoyed right now I apologize to them and there has to be a better way to do do this I mean I've got like cords here are all the cords that I have in a bag myfi out you can see that connections for all kind of stuff here it's it's a lot but this is what I do for you regardless of what those people on Twitter say that it's an embarrassment that I would join you from an airport when I feel like I'm going out of my way to join you from an airport when I told you originally I might not be able to hop on tonight so you're welcome uh yeah congratulations to us all uh by the way have you just considered renting a car it's a three-hour Drive I I had and I did and this this the next leg's already delayed so um yeah if this goes any further back I'm just going to go get a car and go I I told the lady I said I'll go get a car and drive she goes no no no you're better off doing this I said probably not but we'll give it one more no dude take it from I got to go on with pton I couldn't do that from a rental car can't drive your yeah don't don't don't do the thing that McAfee has where everyone's just in a car don't do that no this looks a whole lot better it looks classier so I got up this morning and I was doing some show prep and I never like to listen to anyone's show but I turned on you and maroy this morning and you guys were talking about Texas Michigan game I texted you naturally you responded an hour later when the context was lost and you just sent a question mark the total of this game's in the low 40s so we were talking earlier tonight the style of game I mean an oddsmaker is implying like a 257 final that is not typically the kind of game that you consider Texas and Sark being comfortable in I my biggest question about this thing you can tell me what you think about this my biggest question is has that program gotten to a point where it's totally comfortable in just a total fist fight because perception is Michigan turns it into that well Michigan's set well I don't know if they can score but even if they can what if Texas is is kind of secretly more equipped for that than anyone thinks I feel like you maybe watched that podcast that I may be on also this week when I talked about the Texas offensive line and how I was a little bit concerned that it was very east to west we one and I feel like they're a group that has a bunch of veterans and they can be physical they didn't really go right at that Colorado State Defense now some of that is going to be what Sark wants to build and attach around everything that they do um I think physically they can hold up against this Michigan football team I was impressed with the interior the defensive line that Texas put out there we kind of forgot about Bill Norton we didn't talk enough about him former Georgia D tackle been in Arizona for a few years I thought he had a great game and it was four or five guys that rolled in and and played fairly well inside for that Texas defense now doesn't mean that just overall they're more physical than Michigan or they're going to push Michigan around but I think they have better players I think they're more athletic and faster so therefore by Def like if you if you defended Texas well what are we looking at 21 24 points I don't think there's a chance in hell that Michigan can get to that even if the secondary still as poest like it was a year ago they didn't get tested against Colorado State so we don't know and Texas is going to be better rushing off the edge so so I think they could go more quick game essentially run the ball through the air extend the Run game out to the perimeter and I'm going to tell you Josh I've I've watched Michigan again on the plane right here they looked human and they looked human in Parts where I didn't anticipate that they would look human uh The Edge Defenders were able to get a consistent patch Rush the interior guys got they got pushed around at times a couple of times not every time not consistently and I will also say this Fresno State since you listen to maroy and I kind of our adopted Sons our football team that we love to watch play um they're graduating just future bar bouncers year after year like that's the kind of individuals that they have playing on the line of scrimmage so I I was a little disappointed with what I saw inside for Michigan now those guys are still going to be drafted early and they're going to be fine but uh I think Texas's defense can be enough and by default I think Texas puts up enough points to go win this football game yeah whoever's running but I think I know where you're going and I do like the under though yeah yes likewise um so this whole thing with allegedly not being able to draw anything from week one if you play inferior competition's always been a little suspect to me although I get it so I watched Bama finally in its entirety I assume you did as well I'm told you do radio in Birmingham every morning what did you take from a 62 to nothing win over Western Kentucky thoughts compared to what you thought about the team before you saw him play okay so some of the questions that that I had were the secondary how they would sort of adapt to this vision coverage that Kane wuk was going to employ it was going to be new it was going to be different and I'm actually interested to see I think that actually could be a better scheme against this sort of Bor spread Up Tempo push the ball down the field offense that hypo runs and now goish is running because we've seen Nick Sav defense get caught against that just a little bit now what they won't be well they will be against this team but not later against Tennessee is physical enough to play fewer numbers inside stop the run and then dedicate those Defenders outside this coverage will be different so I don't think that really matters as much I wanted to see how the secondary players would sort of adapt to that uh if you watched read and react Monday night Roman Harper gave a really nice demonstration as how the linebacker play would have reacted to some things under cach Sabin yet is reacting now under coach wck and it's a little bit more Zone principle based I thought the linebackers looked sleeker and I don't know if it's going to number zero or number 11 uh for Jihad Campbell and for Deontay Lawson but they looked like they changed their bodies they looked faster and the edge Defenders was something I had big question marks about and those guys got to the quarterback um you know I think you you may have found Quay Russo being your guy there for a little while cers Robinson had a couple of nice wins off the edge so I feel okay there and then I think now the only question that really comes out that's left of it is still want to know who the go-to receiver is going to be cuz Jeremy Bernard didn't get a lot of targets and we kind of thought it was going to be him and what's The Tackle position going to look like cuz you had Booker out at tackle a little bit in practice this week you had the pregame injury to Kaden Proctor so that causes the five alarm fire you start scrambling moving guys around I want to see if that position is going to be able to solidified however one position that you and I have talked about and I've told people about this the tight ends blocked very well for Alabama last week they weren't asked to do a ton of it but they'll be able to lean on that group to help whoever that is for a little while so I came away probably more pleasantly surprised with Alabama than I thought I would do you have any scenario in your mind where you think NC state has a legitimately good chance to knock Tennessee off I painted a couple of them earlier tonight what's the path if it just outright happens the path for that to take place is going to number one is going to take mistakes and and from what I saw from niiko leava I don't think you're going to get those mistakes and this goes back to what you just said this is a perfect example of it don't take chatt nooga and say what did he do against that team or against who as people like to say take the actual throws that he made into certain coverages and where the ball placement was on those throws and that can give you a little bit of a picture moving forward of just how talented this young man is and what he may be capable of doing and another player that I know you and I have talked about that we saw that kind of proved it Dylan Samson is going to be dynamic I think they have to have him the thing is NC State is a team that will welcome a fist fight no Dave Doran team is ever going to back down from that so they have a solid front seven even losing p Wilson from a year ago are they going to be able to play with three to five in the Box manage the Run game limit those explosive runs get into some third and Longs and then have extra bodies to take away some of the quick throws which then negates a little bit of the RPO game you're going to have to deal with the tight end uh because I think that position is pretty good for Tennessee this year is it likely no but it's going to have to be a lot of graay and McCall because I still think if you're going to get Tennessee you have to get them on their back end and the defensive line solid they have maybe the best pass rusher in college football so is that likely it is not you'll need some mistakes and I just don't know who's going to make it for Tennessee right now I know it's one game lower TI your competition but who are we relying on to throw multiple interceptions or fumble multiple footballs that just doesn't feel like something that's going to happen so Florida State goes over to Ireland they get beat by Georgia Tech they come home double digit favor they get beat again outright by Boston College so everyone looks at that second game the one we watch Monday night that's supposed to be the Get Right game and you don't get right they're saying the same thing about Clemson versus App State uh Clemson's offense has been in my mind fairly pedestrian for a while and I think almost it's been glossed over because a majority of the criticism if if Dabo and Clemson get criticism is it's the transfer portal stuff it's it's people don't think that he is using all the talent acquisition means at his disposal which I agree with I think that's true but also while I think it's totally unfair to say star quarterbacks bailed him out in the past well he recruited those guys so you get credit for that while I think that's unfair I do think it's fair that if he's got anything less than a start quarterback lately that looks really average up there I was talking to a guy the other day in um well in a world that would know and he said you know Garrett Riley there was a big deal made when he got hired at Clemson behind the scenes that wasn't viewed as this like overwhelming bombshell game changing higher it's been it's been more of the same in terms of result overall up there so app States coming in there it's it's a big win profile they went to A&M they did it last year they'll be comfortable enough on the road I it wouldn't shock me at all to see that thing single- digit game in the fourth quarter how do you see it I love Clemson's front seven and if they can find a way to neutralize the stretch play I think Clemson's defense will be fine in this game I I don't think app will be as Balan as some people believe and I think if they can find a way to neutralize that play you stop the bootlegs the play actions and you take away some of the deep shots going back to your point of quarterback I think it's totally fair and I think it's accurate because let's be honest whether it was Chad Morris or whether it's Garrett Riley this is a quarterback driven system it's not one that you can usually Thrive under without way above average Quarterback play there are some systems that are built for a guy that's maybe not Uber talented to just do what the coach is asking them to do deliver it to Playmakers on a regular consistent basis and then you can make that offense go that way I don't think this offense is that I don't think C kumnick is that guy I don't think he's an elite college quarterback therefore the skill be it good is is not Elite and your quarterback is not Elite inside that system how many years have they been telling us the offensive line is going to be better and it hasn't been it's pretty much the same year in year out so it's not going to be the same test up front that Georgia was but AB State another team the physicality is not really going to be a problem I'm anxious to see games like this Josh because one of my massive takeaways from week one was there's always been a gap and I don't know if you saw this or you see it the same way the gap between the FCS and power four group of five whatever you want to call either one anymore it is dramatically different than I feel like it has been the last six or seven years and what I want to what I'm wondering and I don't think we really know just yet is is that going to happen maybe not to the same extent but to an extent that the group of five Gap is going to now widen to where the power four is pulling away that much further because we see all these lower tier players going to different schools and having success very rarely do we see even average or even below average power five players going down to the group of five or to the FCS so some of these teams are just continuously having quality players plucked away year after year after year hell we got Alabama and Georgia and Clemson and A&M in Ohio State complaining about not being able to replace that Josh yeah how the hell is AB State going to replace that how is stford going to replace that like it's literally not possible so games like this will tell us I think we we need a pretty big sample size where that Gap really is yeah and it's going to take a while for an odds Market to adjust to that so Adam lickstein who covers covers Florida Sports Miami specifically for the Sun Sentinel he put out a tweet earlier today he said Miami continues to grow their football staff in their media guide I count 37 off field Personnel last year they had 29 in 20122 they had 27 so you and I have talked on the phone about this a lot I don't know that we've ever talked about it on the show everyone knows what the transfer portal does to the top of the G5 and FCS rosters from a players perspective those coaches are doing the same thing those coaches because of the new NCAA rule are are leaving they've already started that will exclamate itself fivefold this December when every major power two power4 program understands we can go get off field guys and they can actually now coach on field so I can go I'm telling you right now like I'm standing at a at a power for practice this spring and I am having a director of football operations walk me through his coaching roster and he's saying yeah this guy here he's an off field analyst um he would have been a position coach at New Mexico State this guy here he would have been a coordinator at like Utah State he's an off field analyst so they're not they're not moving in in a classical term laterally they're moving backwards uh to a significant degree perception but it's not to those guys they're doing whatever they can to get on a power for coaching staff before you know the ship departs from the dock and it's impossible to jump from one to the other so I think what you're seeing it it's still at the early stages of that happening too like that Gap only grows wider which is which leads us into this whole other conversation about how you've got a playoff system right now that bakes in a guaranteed spot for a G5 just just because what just because well they've got to be baked in and two years from now when they've got that look in provision I think they'll take a long hard look at that and I think they hate me for it but in retrospect I think our friends in the G5 will regret the day that they poo pooed the idea of proactively trying to build their own postseason not subsidized from that that power five playoff paycheck which may not always be there well let's be real they're still they're they're hanging on to Mama's boob right now still because there's a little bit left and they want some of that drip okay so whatever the wheel or percentage of the slice of the pie is for them right now if it's 1 billion 8 billion of Revenue coming in if it's going to be cut all the way down to 2% 1% a half of a percent I would imagine most of those programs joshu looking at that saying well that's more than we're going to get doing the other thing and no one knows what the other thing really is so until Mark Cuban steps up or Tim Cook steps up and says we will build you a playoff and we will fortify it with all the finances that you need moving forward for x amount of years no one's going to take that chance because they know if it doesn't work they literally crumble and and then if you start talking about taking away some of these pay games at the same time by maybe that risk being some of the Fallout from that they're definitely going to be gone uh on the part on the portion of your coaching conversation if people don't understand how that's operating look no further than Chip Kelly the head coach in what in our lifetimes has been a destination job not saying that it necessarily is right this second but has been and will be getting similar checks to some of those rarified air schools that you just mentioned from immediate right's perspective moving forward and he decides to say no thank you sir I'm going to go over here for less money and less responsibility to assure myself safety moving forward and hopefully have a little bit more fun along the way so now just go down four rungs two rungs 100 rungs and that's what all those guys you're talking about are doing is are trying to solidify their job security moving forward by being able to have something else or something different in what is a more sustainable model financially moving forward I thought what you said candidly was one of the top five breastfeeding G5 metaphors I've ever heard some people in the live chat didn't like it uh do you have anything you want to say I I I don't know what there wasn't to enjoy about it and I don't know what any human on earth would not understand about it um it seems to be something that is along the lines of natural selection and natural process but maybe there are aliens listening to the show and we don't know that yeah so if that's the case I don't know how to communicate with them I don't know what their up bringing was like or how they were fed or how they were nourished as infants or baby whatever ends so that's a them problem not an us problem we are humans and we will speak in human terms and give human examples for the rest of our days pop it out that's it you need to go board a flight I got to get you out of here you get orner when you travel uh Cube show that's the name it's it's Cube show on YouTube it might be out there somewhere I I I don't know and it is embarrassing that we had to use photographs this week because I'm an idiot in our video didn't work but guess what I think our video did better than all the other last like 15 videos we've done you go so it turns out there two ways that there's two ways that we get views one don't put my face on there two have Josh Pon other than that it's misery okay go go to Oklahoma I'll see you later later all right now we Colin Jesse to my knowledge we've never had a guest in the show and then continue the show right like we always end the show with it so we're not done with the show so we just going to keep right on going that's what happened cuix travel screwed us all up but I am about to do the segment I've actually looked forward to all night we got an issue down at Florida State and it's not just the 0 and2 start it is an issue but that's not the issue I want to talk to you about apparently the O and2 starts been bad uh apparently the in stadium experience has been just as bad and the decision-making around Florida state has been just as bad so I know most of you are not following this I'm following it for you uh you're looking at b-roll right now of what you probably know Florida State home games for you you picture Chief aola you picture the Flaming spear in the ground you picture the tomahawk Chop on third down you picture the war chant you picture a totally unique and awesome college football experience which means somewhere out there there is a nameless faceless bureaucrat who wants to ruin it so they took it away not totally but they've taken it away on third Downs like when I was growing up up until like 5 minutes ago if I'm watching a Florida State game and they get you in third and seven they're going to pin their ears back normally they got High Caliber athletes to come after you but also that crowd is going to be a factor and it feels like I'm playing against 14 guys on defense so they've started 0 and2 they come home the other day they get just embarrassed by Boston College and you have all sorts of people complaining about the on the field product but they're complaining about the off the field product too because apparently the stadium experience sucked because they have taken that away they taken the warchant away and they just you know play play music on third Downs which anyone can do there's nothing unique about that now apparently this happened last year uh but no one complained last year because they were winning apparently people didn't like it last year even but they didn't want to complain while they're winning but once you start losing then all the Band-Aids get ripped off and everyone's grievances get aired out and I have not not spoken to a single Florida State fan who likes this I've spoken to like 50 million of you today who dislike this so we don't have war chant being played on third down anymore because we just have being played instead and one of two things could be true here both of them suck either the players asked for it which is what we've been led to believe the players made the request last year which means someone down there was stupid enough to let players in many cases who were transfers and in and out within 12 months change a decades old tradition either were they were stupid enough to do that or that's not the way it happened if that's the way it happened if you guys I don't care who it was I don't need to know who it was if anyone down there actually signed off on players many of whom will not be there for more than a calendar year changing a decades old tradition for a program that doesn't belong to them they're they're not paying for the tickets they're not the reason that Stadium's being renovated again um they haven't shown up year-over year like it's it's their team but it's not their program it's not their brand it's the fans uh the lacrosse team's working out too but there's not nearly as much attention on them as there is on football because people have decided the football team is really entertaining and we love it and we're going to cherish it we're going to build it up in return we create Traditions it's not up to a kid who's 20 years old or or an army of them who are 20 years old to come in and vote no we're not going to do that thing anymore uh and anyone who signed off on that can you imagine by the way whoever's office that was players come in and say yeah the war Chan on third down we don't want it anymore okay whatever you guys say fire that person get rid of that person so it either happened that way or the alternative is it didn't happen that way the players didn't ask for it and somebody we've never even heard of just decided they didn't want the warchant on third down anymore cuz why in the world would we want one of the most intimidating and unique traditions in all of college football why would we want to make our Stadium deafening and intimidating and make it a spectacle unique unto anything else in the landscape of this sport when we can just make it sound like a gas station parking lot on a Friday night instead great no matter how much you dislike these administrative types you do not dislike them enough I promise you if you could get to know some of these people because I do uh you would dislike them so much more than you do right now not knowing them I know many of you work in different environments I have my fist clenched as I'm talking a lot of you work in environments that have nothing to do with sports but you have to deal with these types of people you love tradition tradition is what's great about college football to me for 98% of the people watching this show for 98% of the people in the stands at do Campbell Stadium tradition is what draws you to this sport it's not Superior athleticism if you needed that you'd just be watching the NFL you wouldn't be watching college you watch college CU it presents something that nothing else has it's called tradition it's called page Tre that means a million different things to a million different people but there are a few Staples around programs like Florida State the war Chan on third down being one of them you love that but not everyone does and some of them unfortunately get put in decision-making positions you and I love the war Chan on third down they don't they tolerate it temporarily and hope that yeah maybe we can kind of change it you know it's oh let me straighten my bow tie I I don't like this I oh I this this feels kind of grimy and dirty and raw you don't belong in a decision-making position in major college athletics Point Blank so whoever signed off on that reverse it before the next home game and then after they reverse it take the name plate off their door and kick them to the curb that's the way that should be handled the ramen noodle Express powered by FanDuel as we just abruptly shift gears here I've already added we already had four games on here so Colin is showing you right now Penn State minus 312 has since moved all the way up to 352 I think it's 342 right now so we got on that one early it steamed we got on Kentucky minus 9 a half that's at 10 and a half now uh we got on Brigham Young plus 10 and a half against SMU that's a Friday night game we got on App State plus 17 and a half that one's at 17 now notice the trend here you need to jump on these games if you're tailing us early in the week because chances are we'll move the the market on them and even if we're not moving the market ourselves the Market's going to move and we're getting ahead of it last night you have to be following on social as well Josh P CFB on Twitter Lake kick Josh on Instagram I put out Oregon minus 18 a half that number is not available anymore you had to grab it as soon as I put it out this is a very big audience when we put the numbers out enough people bet it it's not going to last long I am putting this game out right now I have not said a word about it until this moment Tulsa plus 7 A2 they're going to Arkansas State a lot of people expect a bounce back for Arkansas State this week a lot of people cautious about betting Tulsa we still think the number's too big so we're taking Tulsa plus s and a half tomorrow night Friday night lines Instagram live after dark management not approved lak kick Josh over on Instagram make sure you're following uh that's where I have the model pulled up and I look at the live chat and for like 20 or 30 minutes you guys submit your games I tell you what the model thinks we compare it to what the current odds Market says and what FanDuel says I tell you what the model would do on it I tell you if it's a bet for me normally I add at least two more Best Bets during Friday night Lions so the card is not completed until Friday night Lions is completed now I had a little hiccup the other day and I forgot to post the video so so my vow to you I will make sure Friday night lines stays up in my Instagram feed at least through Saturday morning just a little hiccup last week there's the FanDuel uh QR code right here on the screen right now if you go through that portal it lets them know we sent you also if you just want to type it in fanduel.com CFB promotion they are the exclusive odds provider of the show all right I got one more thing to get to because I know I promised you guys they're watching us in Anaheim California Sugarland Texas and Mount Juliet Tennessee I promised you guys something this morning Colin in fact you can start the segment here I made a mistake there other night we did our game previews for the week and I thought we had exhausted all the games we needed to hit and then you guys said no you did not what is wrong with you the audacity the caucacity to leave out Arkansas versus Oklahoma State like what gives you the right well I don't have the right to do that so here you go Arkansas versus Oklahoma State I heard you and we're going to give you the game breakdown Oklahoma state is 20 and two at home since 2021 it it has the feel it has all the makings it's an early kickoff it's 11:00 a.m. Central Time out there in still water I think this game's played in like the 30s to upper 30s just has shootout written all over we get Bobby patrino and Mike Gundy going at it right there near High Noon wonderful Arkansas is a seven and a half Point dog the total is in the low 60s that total will hit 64 that's that's my guess so ton green quarterback they're at Arkansas they got him from Boise most of you who fli through your preview magazines that's probably what you know about him week one lit it up against Arkansas Pine Bluff 16 of 23 229 two touchdowns he had another 88 on the ground two more touchdowns this will be the toughest defense perhaps that he's just faced he was playing at Boise before he got here he's 0 and4 versus Power four competition um the last two times he faced a power four team under 200 yards passing well on average under 200 yards passing three interceptions didn't run the ball very well so it's a prove it game for him to me Arkansas lost their left guard last week um they led the SEC last year by the way in sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed so they're going into An Extremely Loud environment I I know you guys won't believe this but the overall noise level in Boon picking Stadium very comparable to a lot of the places Arkansas goes on the road in the SEC now Arkansas's done surprisingly well under Sam Pitman on the road in the SEC so that's one reason to be confident here ton green surrounded by better Personnel that's another reason uh they've got the roster and talent advantage over Oklahoma State for whatever that's worth to you now as for Oklahoma State can they make it fundamental because if Arkansas State makes or if not Arkansas state if Oklahoma State makes it fundamental here and by that I mean if Oklahoma State just rides that guy Oly Gordon II behind the most experienced offensive line in college football then they'll win the game it's if they're if they're just popping off five and a half six yards per carry they'll win the game um Corners are a question for Arkansas so if they run the ball if Oklahoma State runs the ball effectively early and and they got to load the Box you got a lot of man matchups out wide Allan Bowman's like 37 years old at quarterback he'll be able to take advantage of that they've got good enough wide outs on this team linebackers also a question for Arkansas here so the one thing that I wonder about is we think defensive Line's the strength of the Arkansas Team so maybe they stand up against the run a little bit more than Oklahoma State's used to seeing and maybe you make Allan Bowman throw the ball last year he threw the ball to the other team a lot it was the thing that they knew they needed to work on so if I get him in a shootout and he puts the ball in the air more gives me more chances to pick him off I trust Halen Green's just got to have the game of his career here Bowman had four multi- interception games last year that's a quarter of the games you play so it's out there it's out there for Arkansas even maybe to get out gain and still win the game Arkansas's not bad on the road they're not bad I mean they've lost a lot of close games to much better teams than they are they lost by like three in Tuscaloosa last year no one even remembers that just random close games out of nowhere J quendon Jackson's one of the key players in this game cuz no one's going to talk about him he's tailback for Arkansas um I think there is is a world maybe where he doesn't outrush oi Gordon maybe he does but there's a world like if Arkansas wins this thing that's your player of the game jaquinn and Jackson he had about a 100 rushing yards against Arkansas Pine Bluff last week if they win the game that's probably your player of the game and he is doing the postgame interview afterwards and he's talking about how everyone talked about olly Gordon and I saw this as a stage to make my mark you try to Envision these sorts of things that's how it could play out Colin let's take a look at what the model thinks FanDuel right now Oklahoma State minus 7 the model nearly agrees across the board model has Oklahoma State minus 7 I think that in a game I expect to be played in the mid-30s upper 30s that kind of game if I have that kind of game happening and you're giving me anything over a touchdown I I'm willing to take Oklahoma State to win the game outright I will take Arkansas plus the points so I'll split the difference there Cowboys win a close game one possession game gim me Arkansas plus the points we are off to an arbor tomorrow it is going to be an incredible Saturday and remember as you guys found out last week when we go on the road we go on the road and I I'm not doing a big huge production pregame show we leave it to the big networks to do that I get down in the trenches for you I take the ey Josh I charge it up and I give you as much behind the scenes access as I possibly can the things you can't see on TV that's what I aim to show you and so we did it last week in the swamp I'll do it this week in the big house many of you have never been there it's an incredible venue it's like 500 years old I think Gladiators fought there at one time it's awesome there's one access tunnel for both teams you can get a little chippy in there at times well I mean we we caught that Ohio State Michigan dust up three years ago and then had to give it to Fox free and good for me by the way for doing that so there's no telling what you can see make sure you're following the Instagram story is very Lively on Saturday not to mention Friday night lines the night before at Lake kick Josh we got to get out of here okay you're free to go enjoy your NFL now just make sure you subscribe to the channel and tell five of your friends to do the same you've been doing it all week because our numbers are insane this week for producer Jesse for direct Colin I'm Josh Pate enjoy the weekend we'll be here to react to it all Sunday night until then take care and God bless e