Josh Pate On SEC Sleeper Teams In 2024 (Late Kick Cut)

are there legitimate sleeper teams in the SEC because we've got a very very unique situation down there what qualifies as a sleeper so right now if you look over at FanDuel they have seven teams in this conference with a win total over under win total of nine and a half or higher so that's Georgia Texas B LSU Old Miss Missouri Tennessee and then you got a second layer of A&M and Oklahoma and Auburn and so on and so forth so obviously if Al abama wins the conference they're not a sleeper LSU is not a sleeper to win the conference Missouri to me even though they've got the exact same win total as those teams this is different because my criteria for being a sleeper team is if you win the conference is the college football public going to be surprised and I don't care that they're over under wi totals n and a half you know good and well if you live in in uh Salina Kansas or if you live in Olympia Washington you're just a college football fan but you don't really follow follow these teams in the South intimately you know good well if Missouri wins the SEC it's going to make you say whoa wow Bama wouldn't do that to you LSU probably would not do that to you because you've seen him do it before you hadn't seen Missouri do it before 11th in SNP plus entering the season they are 17th in returning production got a really good quarterback wide receiver combo Brady cook comes back Luther Burton they held on to him and he's going to be a focal point of their offense and one of the best pass catchers in America and also so I think they back field at running back really really nicely and I also think they back field defensively on their coaching staff really nicely Boston College is on their schedule new coaching staff there A&M new coaching staff Mississippi State new staff Bama new staff they only face one team with a preseason win total of nine and a half or higher and that's Alabama they don't face Texas they don't Face Georgia so you want to label a sleeper even though they won 11 games I think it was last year I still think Missouri is a sleeper because if they won the thing it would take people by surprise and another one which I get accused of going to The Well of every year but I'm going to do it again is Kentucky ky's probably got a little bit higher ceiling than they normally do like normally ky's floating in that six to six and a half over under wind range but the ceiling is seven or eight that's what it feels like and maybe it is again I feel like the ceiling is a tick higher and it's because of the experience they return all of this is contingent on Brock Vandergriff being a B+ or better caliber quarterback they got him out of Georgia via the transfer portal they returned four offensive linemen with 15 plus starts every starter on this offensive line will be an upper classman they lost zero starts on the defensive line so I'm just going to stop there for a second because I got a lot of folks who hop in the comment section I got a lot of folks who hop in the replies and they say well this is a line of scrimmage game game this is a line of scrimmage league and you're right and I just I just quoted both sides of the ball some very interesting numbers there some very interesting factoids and yet that same group will try and dismiss it because it's Kentucky you don't have to do it just because it's Kentucky they got a couple of safeties with 20 plus starts corner I think it's a little bigger question for them but they got backtack top 25 portal classes there and three of their last five recruiting classes have been in the top 25 if Brock Vandergriff plays above average or better football for them elsewhere they've got a lot of the questions they would normally have already answered before we have to deal with injury and no one predicts injury and no one can forecast that there is by the way in the SEC before I move on there is a there's a kind of dream scenario that could also be a nightmare scenario so I think if you're Greg sanki or the league office or whatever your dream scenario would be all right let's have all these teams with the over under win totals of N9 and a half or better all of them play at that level and then a Texas A&M or an Auburn or an Oklahoma or or a Kentucky couple of those teams pop as well they all play at or above the caliber that Vegas expects them to well that sounds great could be a problem because not all of them can win the games like for every conference game you got to have a winner and a loser so it could be a situation where because because you have so many good teams you got someone playing 10- win caliber ball that ends up8 and four now as long as a few teams separate that's not a problem for you when it comes playoff committee selection time but what if it totally cannibalizes itself what if your conference cannibalizes itself and and the best you've got is you got a A 10- two or an 11-2 conference champ that emerges and then they deal their opponent their third loss and you just got a bunch of three and four loss just jumbled up mess as your conference standings and the committee decides to go fullon you are what your record says you are modowe I don't think that'll happen but it's not out of the realm of possibility because if George's defensive line or Texas's defensive line do not Elevate those teams to Elite the rest of that group there probably does not have highle Elite potential this year the highend for an Alabama or an Old Miss or an LSU is really really good that's my feel on those teams Georgia and Texas probably have topend Elite capability but if they don't pan out on the defensive line there's not an elite elite team an unbeatable team in other words on that list and you could have total utter Carnage in the SEC and then you've got the committee with a real Dilemma on their hands how do we interpret nine and three in the SEC certainly how do you interpret eight and four you're not putting a four loss team in the playoff they lost a third of their games they're not going you are what your record says you are after all so we'll we'll deal with that when the time comes and time probably won't come but but it could it could [Music]