Miami vs Florida - Josh Pate's Preview & Prediction

Miami at Florida Saturday 3:30 Eastern kick ESPN heat Dome parked over the southeast high pressure has got it intensely hot down here hey if they die they die 3:30 kickoff in the swamp it's going to be a really good one the whole new Saturday tour in town and uh we've been looking forward to this one for a long time I was pretty much sure we were going to this one in the spring and now we've locked it in so the whole new Saturday tour fueled by quick trip going to be there I'll be on the sidelines for this one copious amounts of sunscreen on the head for obvious reasons this is the number 13 team and number 21 team in the JP poll I don't even know what the AP says it's it's a pressure cooker of a game I think there's a bunch more pressure on Billy Napier than there is Mario chrisal I think a lot of this has been painted in the media as boy losers on the hot seat Well Mario's not on the hot seat if he loses this game Billy Napier is and so I think there's a lot more he's got HomeField Advantage here I think there's a lot more pressure I think they've got a lot more to prove at Florida lower expectations for Florida this year as well question for you how effective will this Miami offense be right out of the gate this year week one this is not bethon cookman this is not a tuneup game they got to go into the most hostile environment they'll play in all year uh the most hostile environment most people on this roster have played in this offense at Miami I think will eventually be effective this year but I can't shake this idea from my mind that they could be clunky out of the gate and that's because this Sports really hard and then you got the whole helmet communication thing and you're trying to take that piece on the road and I listened to Shannon Dawson the other day I have talked to Shannon Dawson about this and they can say all they want to about how well if if Cam Ward can't hear because it sounds like he's surrounded by jet engines and Ben Hill Griffin Stadium if he can't hear we got checks for that we'll be fine no one's ever fine on the road in college football the best you do is manage on the road in college football that's the best you do and the ones who make it look easy are few and far between so you got that you got the whole newness factor of Cam Ward working with a lot of guys working in an offense for the first time ton of skill here ton of skill I think they're surprisingly deep at tailback I think offensive line very very good unit they're going to be a very high level offense and maybe they come out of the gate firing I just think how impractical that is going into this environment in week one so you got you got the crowd and all of those other things and that's why running back depth is important here and Jordan Lyall for example is a true freshman running back I think they flipped him from Ohio State I mean I think in terms of matchup he gives them a really good look on the perimeter get into the perimeter Damen Martinez is a guy they got from Oregon State and he'll be a focal point of the offense who knows three or four Touches for Jordan ly may be the difference there we talked about Elijah aroyo a whole lot last year at tight end this year stay healthy every every finger here crossed um that's a guy along with with stpo Sam Browns a a receiver they got from Houston got good weapons there it's another thing to make sure all those weapons just look like that right out of the gate that's not normal in college football so if you can do that you're the exception to the rule then the second thing I'm focused on in this game same question but for Florida how effective is the Florida offense right out of the gate are there matchups out wide to exploit here Eugene Wilson you can make an argument the most skilled wide receiver in this game either sideline but at the same time I could make the argument Florida's about to see the fiercest pass rush maybe they see all year and this is a team that's going to play a murderer row of a schedule but that pass rush Miami brings is about as good as anyone's going toh feature this year arus boardingham at tight end another good option for Graham MZ if he has time if he can get the ball out in time if they can give him adequate protection it's one of the great questions around Florida football this year is the offensive line and I the other thing early in the season what do we see all the time in fact in college football in general what do we see we see a lack of the basic skill of tackling in the secondary well can you get your guys on the perimeter can you make defensive backs tackle you instead of guys who will do it all day long if you let them on the interior and the other thing I was at Florida's opening game last year out in Utah I was there and I stood there and I watched the missed field goal and I watched nine penalties and I watched duplicate numbers on the field extend a drive and and that ended up I think in a score and So procedurally Special Teams where's the edge there do we have one cam Ward I mean cam Ward was prone to turn ball over up at Washington State so for everyone who looks at how full the glass could be right out of the gate is it that full also Miami carrying six seven new starters on defense this is an environment that if you don't have everything ratcheted up you don't have every every bolt nut tied really tight it can rattle you and you can come UND dime it's happened to many a team in that building as you can tell I've had a really hard time on this game so Colin let's take a look at what the model thinks and it's really close to what FanDuel thinks right now as we sit here on this Tuesday night Miami is a two and a half Point favorite model agrees we got Miami minus two I am extremely conflicted in this one uh because I I keep going back to thinking there is more desperation on Florida side uh obviously HomeField Advantage how intimidating an environment that can be uh how easily that place rattles you especially if you've got newness on offense and then on the other side I think to myself Miami's pass rush can take over the game and there are probably a few too many um green arrows pointing North I think when I look at that match up both sides for my Miami um thought Florida early this morning shifted to Miami this afternoon Man by these slimmest of margins I'm rolling Miami to win and cover I mean because the the line is under a field goal anyway I have no feel on that one you will not have a dime of my money bet on a side [Music]