Josh Pate's FSU Prediction: Wins/Losses + Big Questions (Late Kick Cut)

here's the Florida state prediction at least as far as we can see it this year here's what you need to know the over under win total at FanDuel is 9 A2 for Florida State they got the best odds as we sit here right now to win the conference which they did last year so the market thinks they may very well repeat they have got three straight top 10 portal classes baked into this roster right now they got the 10th best odds to win the whole thing this year so they are heavily favored to not only be an ACC Contender but maybe win the conference maybe make the playoff and they tasted it last year and there's a sour taste in the mouth how about that you win the conference you go undefeated yet with the way the cookie crumbled as Mima would say it just made everyone angry down there I think I know a few things about Florida State I think I know offensive line can be a strength of this team multiple all ACC caliber pieces there I also think DB is another strength of this team and there's good young depth there too behind the guys who are proven they got three shorefire NFL guys I think in that secondary but you got some young cats maybe they play this year maybe they don't play this year but you know it's not really topheavy there's there's a layer of top soil but then there's some fertile soil beneath that that's the way you want a depth chart to look and I think I know they've got staying power sometimes we see teams have a magical season and then they fail to recapture the magic I don't think that's Mike norell I don't think that's Florida State they fooled some people because they leaned on the portal really heavily early on and people were misguided enough to think oh they're just going to be a one-trick pony they don't really know how to recruit they're not building a program they were doing those things the whole time they just supplemented to get there faster but they were doing those things the whole time so it's not an experiment down there it's a it's a program it's a really good program and they lock Mike Norvell up for a long time so staying power means I think they're going to be in this conversation every year the big question here is pretty obvious it's the level of quarterback play that they get DJ OU angal transferred down there we had Jonathan Smith on the show last week me and canel were interviewing him and then after we got done we were kind of talking about dju cuz that was Jonathan Smith quarterback last year up at Oregon State and man Jonathan Smith couldn't praise him enough and it wasn't any guarantee that he's going to do anything but it was just how smart he is how hardworking he is um how attentive he is how much he cares about it again does that mean he'll be any better than a 57% completion guy it does not but it means will maximize whatever he has in him and he's playing for a staff that I think can maximize whatever he has in him 14 picks over the last two seasons got to improve on it completion percentage got to improve on it I think he will it's just by how much how good do they backfill a receiver that's the other thing that kind of goes hand inhand with DJ Jordan Travis last year had studs to throw to Keon cola's not there anymore you know Johnny Wilson's not there anymore now that doesn't mean it's a poor man's roster but when you look at the next guys up you probably can't lean on dju to make them um if you had like Caleb Williams there he can make receivers I don't think we're looking at that caliber quarterback so the names that start to emerge the go-to guys that start to emerge it's a big question there's a lot of young potential it's just college football it's not proven yet the staff Overview at Florida State a top 10 coaching staff top to bottom that's a big deal now don't overlook that in the whole country it's top 10 coaching staff and I'm talking about multiple layers the the the game day aspect the recruiting aspect the development aspect that's a top 10 coaching staff didn't think I'd be saying that a couple of years ago it's Mike norvell's offense Alex Atkins is in there listed as the OC uh you would have to convince me that it's not Mike norville's offense it's not him calling it uh Adam Fuller there though at defensive coordinator they were top five in scoring efficiency last year you look at his career and there's there's some up and down to it which is to be expected um let's see if they can be consistent there again this year got some good players over there that's kind of it's a it's a it's a first world problem to have because it's the top 10 staff overall but that's what I'm paying attention to this year with their coaching staff the schedule review Florida state cuts no corners in non-conference play they got Notre Dame at Notre Dame by the way they've got Memphis in week three they have got Florida as they do every year at the end of the season and they get Clemson and they get Miami in conference play so you got it to do it's not an easy schedule here however look at this if you're listening on podcast think about how a schedule normally Stacks up it is not like this Florida State plays North Carolina the 2nd of November and they're done with conf confence play the their last three games are out of conference which is wild like who else plays a schedule like that it's not a bad thing or a good thing is just a weird thing the best case worst case most likely record scenario here there is a 12-0 in the cards for Florida State I think there's also a seven and five if quarterback plays not what it needs to be if they do regress in their offensive output um defense if it fluctuates a little bit it's just uh seven and five is worst of worst case the likely record outcome I think for them this year is 10-2 and that's my prediction for them I got him going 10- two JP pole the model has him at number nine in the country coming into this season right behind Old Miss right ahead of LSU you guys can chop that up any which way you want to but Florida State's right there and if that quarterback piece pans out and if those wide receivers develop and they're maybe above and beyond what you expected them to be maybe more than just an ACC Contender there maybe more than just contending to be in the playoff [Music]