Josh Pate's UGA Win-Loss Prediction + Big Questions (Late Kick Cut)

my Georgia official prediction for this year here's what you need to know before I tell you what I think the over under wi total is 10 and a half FanDuel right now they got the best odds in the SEC to win the conference they've got the best odds in the country to win the national championship they are seeking their fourth straight undefeated season and as we dive into this here's another paper popper of a stat this is kind of a padlock stat if you think about it Saturday November 7th 2020 where were you proba locked up in your house wearing a mask but more specifically what happened that day anyone anyone Georgia lost a football game that day I believe to Florida the reason that date is important is because that is the last date that Georgia lost a football game to someone other than Alabama if not for Bama Georgia has not lost a football game since November 7th of 2020 so what do we think we know here I think I know this will be a top five offense it was last year it's not like they need to improve at all running back if you look at the positions across the board Carson Beck came back huge deal obviously uh running back offensive line wide receiver as good or better than they were last year it's fair to expect that tight end loses Brock Bowers and yet it's still one of the best tight end rooms in the country let me say that again they lost Brock Bowers and still have one of the best tight end rooms in the country that's called recruiting and developing mainly recruiting though uh but but a healthy amount of development there as well and I also think I know they got two first rounders at least over on defense and Michel Williams and Malachi Starks and there will be others but those are two that you can pretty much take to the bank and the third thing I think I know about Georgia is even having said all that this won't be easy this won't be easy every year people get amnesia this time of year folks get amnesia and you just bristle at the at the mere idea that the number one team in the country could lose a football game or someone could pick against the number one team in the country to win it all well do you watch this game do you watch this sport this stuff happens every year this team right here would have been favored to win the national title last year even after they lost in Atlanta but they didn't get a shot because it's hard to win this sport even when you load these classes up like Kirby smart does even when you're favored wire to wire it's hard and it will be this year as well now here's what I want to know I want to know how good they are up front on defense if there's one request that I get more than any request about the show I got it like 50 times today because I talk to a lot of personnel types today it is please talk poorly about us please don't be hyping us up please don't be feeding us rat poison so I happen to know several players on that defense watch the show so I'm going to do you a favor I um don't really fully believe all of this but I will say maybe Georgia is just pretty good up front maybe that's it maybe they're not Elite maybe they don't have that vintage Georgia flavor there maybe I can convert third and three on them with regularity maybe they can't get home against the quarterback regularly enough maybe it's not quite Georgia of the past up front was that good guys was that good you know who I'm talking to over there all right uh Hey man Georgia is still going to be pretty good up front but I do mean what I say when I do wonder how good will they be there because there's a difference between that Georgia Elite standard versus pretty to really good and the difference is uh getting home one or two more times per game against quarterback forcing one more turnover or two more turnovers that could Define a season for you so you know it's not a game well it is a game but it's not something to be played with next the corner depth behind dalen Everett it's interesting first world problem you know cuz Georgia when you talk about green players you talk about unproven players man I'm talking about Julian Humphrey like Ellis Robinson just freak Show players that don't have a ton of starting experience but when you go look at you know like practice b-roll or if you get to go to practice you you watch these dudes you're just standing there and you're saying who is is that and oh that's that's just Ellis Robinson oh oh oh oh oh the the elite uh freshman yeah that's him he looks like the seniors look on some of the teams Georg is going to play yeah actually no their seniors don't even look that good so yes this is a question behind dalen Everett you know Dan Jackson's got six starts I think they worked him at safety sum this week Daniel Harris Julian Humphrey Ellis Robinson yes technically guys still have to see the production yes technically it's not there these are good football players well these are players who have Elite skill and they'll probably be good football players for Georgia this year but can they pressure the quarterback this was an issue for them last year when we talked to Kirby in February we went down there did a whole show at Georgia had him on the show for 30 minutes he said that was one of his biggest concerns can we get after the quarterback enough this year I know some of you think it's stupid to talk about sacks I've on full circle on the stat I know that sacks are not the end all Beall I actually know if I pressure the quarterback and don't sack him but my pressure forced an interception that goes back to the house that's actually better than a sack I know all that guys but I think people have overthought the room on this there's never been a sack in the history of football where the offense got positive yardage there's never been a sack that was a good thing for the offense so I've gone full circle I'm actually about to start throwing sacks back in people's faces immunity of the highest order on that line but sacks you know what new rule new rule sacks are Sachs are cool again Georgia was 47th in the country in sacks last year this is the whole reason behind that Spiel so I could just throw that stat at you my Kell I think had 4.5 sacks and led the team so um whether you want to talk about Havoc rate quarterback pressures quarterback hurries outright sacks Georgia wasn't quite Georgia last year in that category I know they've worked on it at nauseum will they be much better there here's the staff breakdown we got every coach coordinator assistant coach graded in the entire country Georgia got the number one head coach in the country Georgia's got a top five staff as we see it right now in the country this defensive support staff beneath the coordinator level in other words is top 15 that offensive support staff lost some guys it's really hard to retain when you're an elite staff you know like Del McGee is not there anymore for example we still got that offensive support staff top 30 maybe down a tick from what we've seen in the past at Georgia um Kirby Smart how about this so we've got him as the top active head coach also we've got him as the highest graded defensive coordinator of the last 15 years so another word for that is stud but I wanted to put an actual numeric grade on it there's no real weakness here it's just relatively speaking you know that offensive support staff may be down a touch in overall grade qu quality the schedule is extremely tough for Georgia this year Georgia's hung out in the SEC East for a long time this is this is not the SEC East anymore I've got them playing six of my top 21 teams preseason power rating wise I've got them playing six of my top 21 teams and they play five of them away from home couple of those are neutral sight games but five or six of those are away from Athens they got at Texas they got at Bama they got at Old Miss they Tennessee at home they go to Kentucky we've got Kentucky I think 26 in the JP poll I'm not even mentioning that at Kentucky would be some of you guys' toughest games and so the cumulative effect that this can have is uh is to the degree that I don't think there's a whole lot of skill in looking at a schedule and mapping out your wins and losses I'll give you a record prediction in a second but I don't give you the specific games that I think you'll win or lose it's fun I don't think there's a lot of skill in it but that's a tough schedule it will test your depth that's what it will do the best case and worst case for Georgia this year there's always a best case scenario of 12 and0 as long as Kirby Smart's at Georgia however the worst case for them considering the schedule has to be a little bit um more extreme than it you you'd normally expect it to be with Georgia so I got their worst case at 8 and four how would that happen a quarterback injury combined with the schedule it's pretty pretty basic worst case for everyone is just a bunch of injury you lose your tough games Georgia plays a lot of tough games what I think they'll do this is going to be controversial uh I've got them going 10 and two right now as we sit here in early August I think there may be two losses on that schedule that still makes them a playoff team but if you if you want to know how Georgia can be favored in the SEC I've got ow rated number one I think Georgia enters the season as the best team in the country I think this schedule is tough enough that the best team in the country could stand to lose two games um which sounds counterintuitive it's not schedule is not equal record is not equal therefore in college football so 10 and two for the number one team in the country is that possible it is possible it's also possible that if Georgia makes the playoff with a 10 and two record they may still be a point spread favorite against anyone they play there's a world where that's possible [Music]