Josh Pate's Penn State Win-Loss Prediction + Big Questions (Late Kick Cut)

big question this ought to go swimmingly because everyone's totally logical when I talk about this team what will Penn State's record be this year and then bonus question is James Franklin overrated is Penn State overrated it's an inside joke if you know you know they're over under wi total here's what you need to know it is nine and a half FanDuel has the over under win total at nine and a half FanDuel has them with the third best odds to win the Big 10 they have got the sixth best odds to make the playoff let me repeat Penn State in a roundabout way is favored to make the playoff they would have been in the last several years if we had a 12 team playoff James Franklin's entering year 11 here's what I think I know about his team defense will again be very strong very strong the defensive line is full of seniors got a ton of experience there they've got a great Edge Duo they've got a great safety Duo we're hearing good things about the corners that they got in there they got Kimber and they got Harris in the transfer market so feel good again about defense I think if they handle this offense right um they should have outside of Ohio State and it will probably behoove them that I said that because they can use it for motivation but outside Ohio State where should I have a better one-w combo of tailback than I mean Singleton and Allen last year should have been better than they were this year those guys those guys both have thousand yard potential about them so um again new coordinator in so we'll see how that unfolds but I think I know they should be very Dynamic and that should be a strength of that team and I think I know this will be a little more controversial Drew Aller is a strength of this team now Drew Aller although he had a good year in terms of touchdown to turnover rate last year 29-2 people think he sucked last year that's CA they they sucked offensively in big games but he was a good player last year First full year as a starter this will be a second full year as a starter which leads me we can go right into what I need to know I need to know will he be put in a better position than he was last year they brought in C Nikki the coordinator from Kansas lot of Hope riding on that a lot of Hope of their offense being more explosive in big games you guys remember the Ohio State and Michigan game last year it was terrible I was at both those games it was bad outside that they moved the ball fairly well but that doesn't really matter because outside of those games what else are we really talking about this is Penn State like that's who you're to beat will a wide receiver one emerge on this team they had Lambert Smith that transferred down to Auburn and so who are we looking at here Julian Fleming transferred in from Ohio State to Pennsylvania guy um he kind of profiles as that guy so to speak do they have one will this offense generate one you know will will there be more opportunity tight end's a really good and deep position for them that'll help a little bit as well how good are they at corner that's another another question I have they brought in AJ Harris former Central Red Devil for those of you down in the B City area they brought him in they brought Kimber in from Georgia um Daven Collins is a guy who came there two years ago and he's been one of the talks of their fall Camp if if that room has come together like they're suggesting it has losing King and losing Dixon that should be a weakness if it's not a weakness that's a huge bonus for this team what about the coaching staff I mean this will be clipped to the ends of the world CU everyone wants to know about the coaching staff at Penn State well I've got every one of them graded in this model and we all know the model does not lie I'm going to give you comps a lot of times I tell you where the guys are rated I'm going to go one step further for Penn State I'm going to tell you where the model places these coaches James Franklin would be sandwiched kind of in between a Dave Doran a Matt Campbell Brett belma Brett belma is a pretty highly rated coach by the way um that's where he would profile Andy ciki the new offensive coordinator you want to know who he'd be right up against Bobby patrino so if anything a very fun season ahead for Penn State's offense the offensive support staff here is kind of average you know by by major college football standards the defensive support staff is excellent uh very very good and that's not a surprise they are below Oregon and above Michigan State sort of as a coaching staff at large that's about where we would Place their staff grade right below Oregon right above Michigan State Michigan State's not going to win many games this year Michigan State's got a pretty good coaching staff that no one knows about so that's what the model thinks about Penn State's coaching staff notice no one said the word elite no one said the word great no one said the word top five and yet if they go 10 and two this year people will call them over rated the schedule sets up very well it's very favorable now don't overlook week one week one no one's talking about it outside of these fan bases Penn State at West Virginia has Rock fight written all over it when you got a new coordinator and you're trying to fit many new pieces in and meanwhile Neil Brown's up there no longer on the hot seat and he's got his quarterback back uh it could be a very very challenging week one game I want to say Penn State's favored by like nine or 10 right now but they only play two teams in the top 25 and Ohio State's at home look at the last month of their season Washington at Purdue at Minnesota Maryland my thinking on Penn State is somewhere in October their offense will hit it stride and it will level up it will not be out of the gate but at some point it'll level up and you'll find yourself in early November saying wow this looks like a really different team and if that's the case they're going to get fat on the last four weeks of their schedule and they're going to have momentum on their side and they'll get in the playoff if that happens they have a huge buy Edge in that Wisconsin game they go to Southern Cal then they got a byee so they're fully rested they go to Madison Wisconsin is off back-to-back Road games no bu they go to ruter which is in New Jersey the next week they go to Washington which is in Seattle and then they complete a backtack road with a CrossCountry flag and then they got Penn State at home no rest Penn State's fully resting so the best case scenario for Penn State this year is an undefeated season and I'm going to tell you why because there no huge Underdog spots on here they've got Ohio State at home we've got the number on the game you can go bet it right now Ohio State's favor by three and a half in Happy Valley they go to Southern Cal Penn State will either be favored or a very small Underdog there is certainly a path for them to win every one of these games I've got their worst casee scenario at 8- four and I've got them going 10- two I flirted with 11- one I've got them going 10 and two this year JP polls really really high on Penn State higher than I'd probably have them Penn State is sixth in the JP poll in the preseason that's the difference in a power rating and a ranking because i' I'd probably rank them a couple of spots lower 10 and two 10 and two does that get you to Indie if it doesn't does it get you in the playoff I think they're going to be a playoff team I think Penn State will be in the playoff [Music]