Josh Pate's Alabama Win-Loss Prediction + Big Questions (Late Kick Cut)

Alabama's prediction this year final record go what are they going to be I'll tell you what I think they're going to be in a second here are here are the things you need to know so firstly at FanDuel they're over under wi total is nine and a half they' got the third best odds to win the SEC they've got the fifth best odds to win the whole thing they are however 115th nationally in returning production but on the flip side over the past 5 years their rolling recruiting average is the best in the country Jesse didn't you tell me the average class is like 1.75 over the past 5 years it's really close to that it's it's really really high so here's what I think I know about Alabama aside from Nick sabbin not being there anymore kin dbor being the new head coach I think the potential for this offense is pretty explosive and it's pretty balanced because they got a really really good three-headed monster there in the back field at running back I think that offensive line should specialize in that category but also the more and more we hear out of fall Camp the more confident I feel in their quality depth at receiver jayen Milo's ability to distribute the football tight end may not be a bad position for them as well and also Kaylin dbor understands how to do this thing man so that offense could be pretty lethal and maybe it'll need to be maybe they need to score a few more points per game than vintage Alabama teams that's the way you win football games very complimentary fashion ALS also I think I know the Sabin drop off is not a major issue in 2024 now I don't know that I think it's going to be an issue period because they've come in and kind of spearheaded by Courtney Morgan the general manager there they've started to acquire Talent at a very high level they in their own right but if there was going to be a Sab and drop off meaning they're just not as good anymore and you see a noticeable waning of quality of roster quality of Team well that wouldn't be a major issue in 2024 so even if you believe in that that's a 2025 2026 thing even if you believe this is Larry Coker reincarnate well Coker won early it was only after Miami started to reflect him that things went downhill a little bit so I don't think that the Saban drop off is going to be talked about a lot I do think that's the case I don't think that that's one of the themes that I'll be watching for this year now here's what I do need to know about Alabama I need to know what kind of passing attack can Jaylen milro execute it is one thing to hear the feedback from Fall Camp to hear the feedback from scrimmages and all that's all well and good and I don't doubt mil Rose's ability to throw the ball a quarter mile if he needs to he was one of the best deep ball passers in college football last year the short to intermediate game how much better is that from him than we saw last year I I wouldn't call that a glaring hole in his game but it was one of the weaker parts of his game so let's see how improved he is there I need to know so can their young players and transfers hold it down in the secondary cuz that'll be the key to their season as far as I can see I think their offense will be plenty good enough passing game Run game it'll be good enough if they're good enough in turnovers if they're fortunate enough in the injury compartment really comes down to their secondary because they had a lot of talent leave Caleb Downs transferred a lot of guys went to the NFL some guys transferred and so you've got a lot of young unproven guys there but they're really talented zaban Brown is a kid that I keep hearing about over and over again a talked to someone about him again the other day and they said enjoy him for three years cuz cuz he'll be gone in three years pretty mature especially for a true freshman but the point is not that I doubt him that's got to work out kids like zavan brown they've got to work out and then some of those other guys and the transfers they got in there Keon Saab for example those guys have to work out if they do sky is the limit for Alabama's team this year thirdly I I need to know how good this offensive line will be in pass Pro course Washington's was really good last year Alabama's was bottom five in the FBS and sacks allowed I'm not totally throwing that on offensive line protection some of it's terrible snaps and they rectified that because they went and got bford out of Washington part of that can be attributed to quarterback indecisiveness but a lot of it is on the offensive line and several of those guys are back to Anchor what should be a really dominant run unit how good are they in pass Pro because you better be if you're going to execute the offense I think they want to run the coaching staff here we got every guy graded head coaches coordinators um support staff we got them all graded in our system here we got kayin dor graded as a top three head coach in college football Bama went from having the best to having one of the very best no question about him they've got a top 10 overall staff so secretly below Sabin the quality of Alabama's coaching staff had waned a little bit it was it was well known in coaching circles in agency circles I don't think it was talked about a lot publicly but we can talk about it now in the net they upgraded parts of their support staff especially defense ly which is just not something that will compute with most people you lose Sabin you hire an offensive-minded head coach but you upgrade the defensive support staff well yeah because this is now a top 15 support staff defensively Kane wack we got him as a top 30 defensive coordinator remember he was the head coach at South Alabama last year now Nick Sheridan at offensive coordinator that's one where we've got data incomplete because he's only got a couple years experience doing that now here's the flip side of that that that could mean he has a great year in his grade skyrockets in our model but also we know kayin dbor has a lot to do with the play calling offensively did last year uh if we counted him as the OC instead of Nick Sheridan then that vastly changes how we would grade the mechanisms here Elco kind of the same way out at Texas A&M like do we know who's calling their side of the ball this is a really good coaching staff here Bama didn't take a huge back seat even with transitioning away from Nick Sav so that's an important point now here's another important point this is a hard schedule they play six teams in the playoff top 25 odds over at FanDuel in the JP poll they play five of my top 15 teams and this road stretch is no joke they go to Wisconsin they go to Tennessee they go to LSU they go to Oklahoma the week before they play the Iron Bowl it used to be they played an FCS team now they play Oklahoma in Norman late November by the way the weather could be horrendous and the team could be really hard to face so we've got that they they have buys before Georgia and LSU but Georgia and LSU also have Buys so there's no situational Advantage here like I said they got Georgia they got Auburn they got a sneaky game in week two against USF USF could be one of the Darkhorse contenders in the G5 ranks this year so this is not an easy schedule at all their best best case I've got as 11- one this year perhaps I'm wrong I I do think that with the transition even as bright as I am on a lot of it there's got to be at least a loss in there somewhere even in the best of cases the worst case because of the transition because of maybe the lack of quality depth across the board and because of the difficulty in schedule I've got a seven and five but what I think they'll do is I think they'll go 10 and two and if they go 10 and two they're college football playoff team I've got him in the JP pole as the fifth highest power rated team in the country to start the season that stuff's obviously fluid this time of year but I think it's a really good team really good team lot of unknown obviously but I think it's the most talented team that kayin dbor will have coached so we we've seen what he's done before is there too much newness like is that a problem is the transition too steep is the learning curve too steep I don't think there's an organization more complex than the one Sabin Ran So I don't think anyone's coming in and making anyone's head swim at Alabama I think they'll be okay in that category [Music]