Texas vs Michigan - Josh Pate's Preview & Prediction

Texas at Michigan this Saturday it is a noon eastern time kickoff on Fox and we'll be there the whole new Saturday tour right there on the sideline in the big house been up there several times recently I did I had stats and info find the number for me I have been to seven Michigan games in the past three years and Michigan is six- one the one loss was to Mel Tucker or maybe Kenneth Walker III and Michigan State otherwise they've beaten Sabin with me in the building they've beaten Ryan Day Thrice with me in the building James Franklin last year but um Washington they won a national title but Mel Tucker was the one that tripped him up this is a true week 2 special mimo always warned to make observations but not draw conclusions in week one cause week two has crushed many a man's Bank role before the week two special in college football is this you watched both of these teams last week probably Michigan struggles feels like they can't get out of their own way against Fresno now the final score ended up looking okay but it took a long time to get to 30 to1 meanwhile Texas is just naming the score against Colorado State 52 to nothing could have been 72 to nothing and your mind is working against you here because your mind sees that what does FanDuel have this Texas only minus 7 and a half that's your first mistake your first mistake is saying A team's only favored by north of a touchdown against Michigan at home uh this doesn't happen hardly at all and so that's the first thing the second thing is there's always multiple examples examp I plural of example of teams that look like a race car in week one and then there's a team that looks like I mean they they are molasses in December in week one and then they meet in week two and you see that the psychology of going through those respective examples of week one performance have an effect on how they play in week two and when they meet each other your mind is thinking in terms of highlight like all all you think about when you think about Texas last year last week is you think receivers running in the open field you think Quinn U is just splitting that seam right there and receiver to the house and then conversely with Michigan you're thinking plotting slow Davis Warren Gets the start but that's not a full football game nor is it what this game will be this week so the Michigan defense knows the game is my point Michigan defense does not come into this one thinking hopefully offense can put up 35 and we'll just do our part that will not be in all likelihood how this plays out how it plays out is this Michigan defense has held 10 of their last 16 opponents to 10 points or less and while you're probably not holding Texas to 10 or less they come into this thing knowing we've got to play a disproportionate role in winning this football game now is that unfair I don't know it's football so suck it up but I think they're totally comfortable with it I think Michigan defensively is a unit that relishes and and Prides itself in being in a position where it's not quite Iowa bad but hey this team here in this moment situation early in the year we're probably going to have to go out there and not only we going to have to stop them have to take the ball away a couple of times maybe have to disproportionately win the average starting field position battle because we force a bunch of punts maybe a couple of fumbles and we start at Midfield and maybe a 10-point swing in the game happens that way defense not an issue last week there were some issues with Michigan but defense wasn't one of them Fresno had nine rushing yards Fresno's not a bad team so what kind of game is this if they do that to Texas let's say I try and do the padlock stat let's say Texas is 2.7 yards per carry this Saturday they're really banged up at running back they're thin there we've seen Michigan do this we've seen them turn teams one-dimensional even the good teams when they're one-dimensional don't plan on that so they can struggle so if I were to tell you that line seven and a half in favor of Texas Texas is under three yards per carry how much does that change this game I'd say a lot can we assure ourselves can we make that forecast Texas I think is the deepest group of pass catchers that Michigan will face all year Oregon comes in there maybe May maybe you make the argument that Oregon has uh better top end guys but the depth at Michigan Bond Wingo jonte cook Matthew golden Blue's good even out of the back field in the pass game and then Helm and and NY black at tight end Silas balin's there so they just they are so deep that was the Intel we started to get in the latter portions of camp it absolutely was validated in week one even against Colorado State you can see how many weapons they have so I'd feel great if I were Michigan that I have will John but will Johnson alone or any one corner alone is not going to answer this it's got to be a collective effort of that secondary and those linebackers and and honestly you got to get a whole lot of pressure up front too but just finding a couple of openings you you you're going to be able to probably limit Michigan scoring so you don't have to score on every drive here but finding a few openings yards after catch not normally easy to come by against Texas but the explosives if they're there it may not be one dude lighting it up it may be that you look at that stat sheet and Bond's got two catches but for 63 yards CU he popped one big play Balden one catch but it's for 38 yards because he popped one big play this Texas offense think about this with Quinn uers lot to prove blah blah blah those are just storylines and talking points their RPO game is going to be a problem for Michigan and it's important to note that that it's a same quarterback in a third year with the same coordinator he's had for a third year so there's no figuring anything out here familiarizing yourself with your talent that you have out wide is one thing but outside of that they should be able to click here they should Michigan last year and this is one of the most important points in this game to me Michigan last year LED 95% of the snaps in football games 95% of the snaps in Michigan games last year they had the lead so they didn't Trail a whole lot they did against Bama and they were resilient and they came back and won the game so it's not that it was impossible but a lot of those pieces are gone a lot of those coaches are gone so you've got some folks left over here that experienced that you got some players here that experiened that but a lot of the reasons for the experience are gone so if this team finds itself in a hole at home or on the road I don't care if they play this game on the moon how do they respond cuz Texas can do that to you Texas can cattle prodd you to the neck early in this game I think Texas has a strong special teams Edge maybe from a Personnel perspective definitely from a coaching perspective uh but at the same time we have seen Michigan do it before I have stood there and watched Michigan do it before they played penck and Washington in the national title game last year and there were some folks they don't admit it because it didn't happen but there were some folks saying man Washington they're just too hot I mean no one stopping this passing game well Michigan did pendix was 27 to 1 and a lot of that's garbage time too touchdown two interceptions and it's just it's you're watching it you're saying oh man he's just missing oh man these throws are just Out Of Reach well what do you you think his hands were slippery uh Michigan's got a lot to do with that so Colin let's take a look at what the model thinks the FanDuel number right now is Texas minus 7 a half model has Texas minus 8 and a half so there is a slight lean towards Texas to win and cover I think this one's going to be a fight historically in recent history especially when we say that about a Texas game that means the other team's going to cover or win the big point of emphasis for this Texas team joining the SEC but also even if they were still in the Big 12 needing to beat the teams they're going to have to beat to get where they want to go has been placing a premium on toughness and physicality okay so the perception is Texas is going to try and go in here and and try and run all around Michigan Michigan's going to try and run through Texas and you know just classic bully ball and can Texas withstand it like can Texas handle it the mentality from Texas should be no we can actually go in there and deal that out too I think they can uh not to say that Michigan's about to get put on skates but there is there's no excuse based on the way Texas has recruited and based on the mentality they've tried to instill in their program why they go get their nose bloodied and then just cower in a corner Saturday so I got the offensive edge here I think Texas can do enough to match physicality that I don't think that's going to be leaned strongly against them I'll I'll roll the dice Michigan fans will love this because I did it last year I'll take Texas to win and cover I'll tell them I'll take him to make the kind of statement on the road they made at Bama a couple of years ago I will I will roll those dice I'll be the one who does it [Music]