UNLV vs Houston Week 1 Bets - College Football Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS continuing on with college football week one got a good game here UNLV Houston week one let's go welcome to the [Music] S the [Music] s s hey get the sew all right like I said Rebels are on the road in Houston here Houston short home favorites and they pretty much have been all summer uh I think this one opened up at 3 got bet down to one in like June I want to say um looks to be settled back in at 2 and A2 I I do see a couple twos out there so we'll see but this Line's been pretty steady for most of the summer as far as the total same thing sitting at 55 1/2 across the board I saw 56 is at one point I saw 54 1/2 um for the most part this Line's uh remained pretty consistent let's take a quick look at the spreadsheet here according to the model we got a slight lean on Houston 27.1 to 24.4 this model these models are using last year's metrics though so don't take much away from this all right so let's go ahead and get into this one uh UNLV bringing back the same coaching staff as last year so I expect to see a very similar offensive game plan this is a team that wants to run the ball no question 36 and run frequency uh if you look at their offensive metrics they're actually more successful passing the ball but as far as their play calling it's pretty clear this team wants to run the football and their personnel certainly suggest that they brought in two quarterbacks through the portal one is Matt sluka from Holy Cross 1247 yards rushing nine rushing touchdowns had some passing yards as well at Holy Cross but this is an athlete that can run the football over 12200 rushing yards and the other quarterback they brought in is Haj Malik Williams I believe is his name also had 700 rushing yards so they brought in two quarterbacks I think they're going to use both of them from what I'm reading um but it doesn't matter both are athletes both can run the football they also have a superstar running back in the making last year as a freshman Jaden Thomas 12 rushing touchdowns as a freshman and he was splitting carries he wasn't even the rb1 so he's back for his sophomore year they also brought in Michael Allen from NC State another talented back so they've got two athletic quarterbacks that can run the football they've got two RBS that could probably be rb1s on most programs in fact Jaden Thomas is potentially an NFL kid in the making and their offensive line should be improved three starters back including an all all conference right tackle here are the metrics from last year I mean this is a pretty decent offensive line last year should only get better so no question UNLV is going to run the ball and they should be able to do it well and they're matched up in the opener against the Houston defense that was very disappointing last year here the uh the run defense is in the left column of this graphic not great for Houston standard certainly below average in all these metrics and here's the kicker everyone's gone of their defensive lineman from last year the five leading tacklers are gone five of their line back or some last year four of their five leading tacklers are gone this is a brand new defensive front seven here now to be fair to Houston they killed it in the transfer portal I mean their starting defensive front is all pieces taken from Power four big time programs I mean Texas Miss USC you name it so Houston's got a bright future I mean they've got talent in the defensive front and then you end in the fact that they made a new hire at DC they brought in wood from Tulane tan had a really good run defense last year 25th in yards per car 41st and run defense success rate 34th and effective rush so they've got talent on the defensive front and they made the correct higher to build a successful run defense so maybe as soon as the second half of this season or next season we should see Houston with a drastically improved run defense but I mean look where they're coming from look where they were last year this is a really bad defense we're talking about week one against a UNLV team that should be a really dangerous rushing attack bringing back a ton of production so I just really hate this matchup I really hate this opening match up for Houston now as far as Houston's offense on the other side there are some bright spots I mean uh their offense last year it was pretty much a oneman show here with Donovan Smith they were 25th in in pass frequency they put the ball in his hands every single well every team does that with their quarterback but he was also one of their best rushers as well um so Houston's offense went as far as Donovan Smith could take them last year and he wasn't bad at all 22 touchdowns 13 interceptions 2,800 yards he's also like I I mentioned an athlete now there are some other bright spots on this Houston offense this year one is Parker Jenkins last year as a true freshman 464 yards rushing 4.7 yards per carry three touchdowns now you might be thinking like okay for for a true freshman that's cool that doesn't move the needle but check this out when this K when they gave this kid the ball the rushing attack was successful in games Jenkins had 10 plus rushing attempts Houston's offense as a whole 148.8kg uh adjusted line yards so when they gave this kid the ball the offense was successful now I know that's super thin we're only talking about four games Sam hon State Texas Tech Kansas State Oklahoma State there's some tough games in there and this kid was a freshman so bringing him back as a sophomore Donovan Smith comes back experience that's a couple nice weapons to to build an offense around and then you compare those numbers to the other eight games where they didn't give Jenkins 10 plus touches I mean there's a clear drop off yards per car drops to 3.89 offensive line yards down no question the offense was much more successful when that freshman Jenkins was involved so bringing him back for a sophomore year alongside Donovan Smith looking pretty solid um as far as their offensive line I'm a little concerned for this week one game um and is not that they don't have talent in fact the Houston offensive Line's pretty comparable to the defensive line here are the numbers from last year pretty bad right I mean about average as far as their PFF grades but the other Advanced metrics below average um they lost everyone kind of similar to their defensive line four starters gone on the offensive line but just like their defensive line they killed it in the portal they brought in all kinds of Power four major program pieces problem is it's week one I mean it's week one are we expecting Houston's offensive line to just show up in gel in week one we've seen a couple instances already I mean look at Florida State against Georgia Tech that's a very good offensive line should have dominated Georgia Tech's defensive front but it was week zero and they just weren't meshing yet so really don't like how it's a brand new offensive line here uh for week one and look I know unlv's defense was nothing special last year in fact 104th in yards per play allowed 113th in defensive PPA but look at their numbers against the run if there was one strength of this UNLV uh defense it was defending the Run 66 and yards per car allowed 42 in effective rush and they're bringing some pieces back in that defensive front three of their top four defensive linemen are back three of their top four linebackers are also back so I expect UNLV to be a solid run defense again yeah maybe they're vulnerable in the secondary and yeah I'm sure Donovan Smith's going to be able to make some plays through the air but as a whole how do we not take the points with UNLV here they should be able to run the ball no problem in this game there's a talent discrepancy no question Houston has a lot more Talent than UNLV does but as far as current state of the team in week one I like UNLV spot a lot better so I did bet UNLV I took him plus two and a half look I I feel like it's going to be a very public dog I feel like everyone's betting UNLV not that that would necessarily scare me off it it's just not something I love to see um but I did bet it I'm on UNLV plus 2 and A2 if you want to see all the bets I currently have open in college football or NFL coming up I head over to kyle.com and click on open bets um I'm under sauce and you can click on the names and see anyone on the staff they're open bets so head over to Kyle KMS and sign up for sauce Network plus if you're interested also comes with access to the Discord and you can participate in the weekly betting League $150 and a trophy go to the winner every sing week so if you're interested head over there um live shows weekdays 4:00 p.m. eastern time weekends 10:00 a.m. eastern time you're able to make it we love to see in the comments we'll go through every single game on the board Saturday Morning Show should be pretty loaded we're going through like I think 27 games or something we'll be live from 10:00 a.m. all the way up to kickoff at noon so we love to see you there let's have ourselves a great week one here um off to a nice little start I made a few dollars in week zero hit Coastal money line last night feeling pretty good hopefully that continues remember to bet responsibly and I'll I'll talk to you in the Discord [Music]