Miami (Ohio) vs Northwestern Week 1 Bets - College Football Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS continuing on with college football week one shout out to Coastal Carolina for the big win last night uh was a nice money line hit hopefully the positivity continues in this video Red Hawks Miami of Ohio uh on the road of Northwestern here let's do it welcome to [Music] the the [Music] SW s hey get this sew all right like I said we got Miami of Ohio on the road at Northwestern uh looks like northwestern's laying three points right now there is a three and a half out there uh so that's where the line's currently sitting as I'm recording this total sitting down at 395 expecting a low-scoring game in this one let's take a quick look at the spreadsheet and according to the model we got a lean on Northwestern here 26.9 to 21.6 so according to the model slightly on Northwestern but again model using last year's metrics probably should ignore it for a few weeks so let's go ahead and get into this one and why don't we start by mentioning that these two teams just played in 2022 Miami Ohio went on the road into Northwestern and won outright 1714 was the final score now it's 2 years ago not very relevant to now but worth mentioning uh so let's start off by looking at the Miami of Ohio offense ran the ball a lot 10th in the country in run frequency but this is not an accurate depiction of what Miami of Ohio's offense was the quarterback Gabbert got hurt I believe week seven or eight and Avon Smith took over a quarterback for the last five games of the year he's not much of a thrower uh he's pretty much an athlete I mean he's a Scrambler so from like week I don't have the exact numbers from like week nine on or whatever it was all they did was run the ball definitely skewing the numbers this is not really an accurate representation of Miami of Ohio's offense uh last season when Gabbert was in there uh so now that Gabbert's healthy I expect them to throw the ball much more here are their offensive metric from last year and again kind of tough to get a read because we're talking about two different offenses I mean before Gabbert got hurt and after G uh Gabbert got hurt and they were completely different here are the numbers right here first eight games with Brett Gabbert 29.8 points per game 6.2 yards per play uh nice looking PPA nice looking off well average offensive success rate look at their numbers after Brett Gabbert got hurt now the defense was still Elite so they ended up going on to win the MAC Championship Game even without him um you can see just 22 point .4 points per game almost an even five yards per play terrible success rate so no question this offense was much better with Brett Gabbert in there and they're happy to have him healthy entering this season um so I definitely expect more passing and they lost their rb1 uh he left for Old Miss Amos 1075 yards last year over five yards for carry 13 rushing touchdowns he is now gone so definitely more pressure on Gabbert more pressure on this team to throw the ball as far as their offensive line they were okay last year I mean pretty a average numbers run blocking pass blocking uh should be much better this year they bring back four starters two of them were all conference last year so I expect Miami of Ohio's offensive line to take a big step forward and that's especially huge for them cuz Brett Gabbert is a guy who has shown us if you give him a clean pocket he can carve up a secondary but when you throw some pressure on him he runs into some problems I mean these splits here clean and when pressure they're pretty significant so Miami of Ohio entering the season with an offensive line that should be improved an experienced offensive line that's huge for them uh here are bre ABD numbers on the season over 1600 yards passing 13 touchdowns five interceptions again he looked I mean that offense looked pretty good before he got hurt so entering the season they got to be feeling pretty good about their offense with a healthy Gabbert also two of their top three receivers are back so yeah experienced offensive line experienced wide receivers got the quarterback they want offensively things are looking pretty good for Miami of Ohio here so how do they match up against northwestern's defense uh well the problem with Northwestern defense last year is they just couldn't generate any pressure on the quarterback which kind of is perfect for Miami of Ohio right we just talked about how Brett gar Gabbert carves secondaries up when he's given time Northwestern was one of the worst pass rushes in the FBS this year but I will say that should definitely get better seven of their top eight defensive lineman are back so I'm not saying they're going to have a great pass rush but certainly they should get better up front with so much experience here's northwestern's overall defensive numbers they really don't look that bad I mean 26 in yards per play allow 82nd in success rate isn't great obviously 38th in defensive PPA so their defense as a whole wasn't bad it was just no pass rush they couldn't generate any pressure and their opponents were definitely aware of it look at opponent's play calling against Northwestern 15th in opponent pass frequency so teams came in with a game plan against this Northwestern defense throw the ball because they know they couldn't generate pressure um and I think Miami of Ohio is probably going to come in with a similar game plan they got their quarterback healthy their offensive line should be solid Northwestern had no pass rush last year Miami of Ohio's got two of their top three receivers back so yeah I think Miami of Ohio is going to throw the ball and I think they're going to be able to on the other side we got the Northwestern offense and yeah I mean it was a crime scene last year 125th in the country in yards per play now they did play in the Big 10 West last year so let's cut him some slack I'm sure a lot of offenses would look like absolute if they played Northwestern schedule let's give them a little Credit in that department uh but still these numbers don't look good at all look at their rushing numbers on the season 3.0 8 yards per carry 2.7 offensive line yards 113 a half rushing yards per game there's no Run game whatsoever for Northwestern and their offensive line just as bad couldn't create space in the rushing attack couldn't protect the passer I mean just negatives across the board here for Northwestern the good news is their offensive line should be much much better They're bringing back three starters they also stole a starter from uh Colorado I I shouldn't say stole they bring in a starter from Colorado as well so no question if you're a Northwest fan you expect that offensive line to be greatly improved this year uh and they're going to need to be cuz they're opening up the season yes against a Mac opponent but it's the best defense in that conference by a lance well actually Ohio was pretty nice this year Miami of Ohio should definitely be the best defense in the conference here are their defensive line numbers kind of like Northwestern I mean didn't really generate a ton of pressure just 121st imp pressure rate but still as a whole for as far as Max schools go this is a really good defensive line they did lose two starters and one of them was all conference though so maybe not maybe actually the the Miami of Ohio defensive line should take a step backwards but they bring back their two Superstar linebackers they bring back two first team allconference linebackers so yeah maybe the defensive line small step backwards but the Miami of Ohio defense as a whole should be just as Elite against the run as they were last year I mean there was really just one game they opened up last season on the road at Miami got cooked on the ground almost seven yards a carry but look at their numbers against the Run from week two on I mean 3.3 yards per carry against Miami Ohio nobody was running the ball on this team and I expect them to be a lead against the run again as far as Max schools go now where Miami of Ohio's defense may be a little vulnerable is in the secondary might be a little vulnerable to the pass but his Mike Wright and the Northwestern offense really the unit to take advantage of that I mean look I don't want to draw any conclusions about this kid based on a really small sample size we didn't see much of them last year but the three games he started for Mississippi State they were ugly I mean look at 453 passing yards three touchdowns three interceptions in the three games he started for Mississippi State they averaged 7.7 points per game the whole team 7.7 points per game look at these numbers 4.23 yards per play when Mike Wright was that quarterback now I believe he was a freshman so look three starts in the SEC as a freshman can't make any judgments maybe he's got a bright future ahead but as a whole in week one against a really good Mac defense I don't know how you can trust Northwestern to score points here and then you take into consideration that Miami of Ohio seems to be cover machines when they play these non-conference games s and3 against the spread in their non-conference game since 2022 how do you not take the three points I mean it almost seems sketchy I feel like this should be closer to a pick them so I'm on Miami of Ohio plus three hopefully I can get a three and a half I haven't bet it yet I probably will I think the line's a little sketchy I'm not jumping at the opportunity to bet it but no question it would be Red Hawks for me here if you want to see all the bets I currently have open for this week and future bets head over to kyle.com and click on open bets you could also see all the open bets for anyone on the staff here um also when you sign up for sauce Network plus it comes with access to the Discord and you can participate in the weekly betting league so if you're interested in any of that head over to the website and sign up for sauce Network plus uh live shows 400 p.m. eastern time on weekdays 10:00 a.m. eastern time on weekends go through every single game on the board if you're able to make it we love to see in the comments let's have ourselves a nice weekend remember to bet responsibly and I'll uh talk to you in the Discord