Notre Dame vs Texas A&M Week 1 Bets - College Football Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS continuing on with college football week one got one of the best games on the board here Notre Dame Texas A&M at Kyle Field let's go welcome to [Music] the the [Music] se s hey get this sew all right like I said Irish are on the road here uh Texas A&M laying a full three points at home looks like you can get a Juiced uh two and a half still but for the most part it's three across the board total sitting at 47 let's take a quick look at the spreadsheet and according to the model we got a lean on Notre Dame 29.2 to 21.5 but again as I keep saying these models they're built with last year's metrics so we should pretty much disregard them to week three or four so let's go ahead and get into this one uh we got some coaching changes here Mike Den Brock is now coaching the offense for Notre Dame because Parker uh took the Troy head coaching job they bring in Den Brock but I mean we all know how LSU's offense looked under his toage last year so I'd say that's a pretty good hire they had the best uh best offensive college football last year so Den Brock is going to be coaching the Notre Dame offense and on the Texas A&M side we have an entirely new coaching staff as I'm sure you've heard Mike Elco comes in from duke uh brings his DC with them offense coordinator Colin Klein comes from Kansas State who also had a successful offense last year top 25 rushing attack so I'd say these are solid hires I mean personally I'm not the type of person that criticizes hires very often I mean these athletic departments know a lot more than I do about hiring football coaches so I don't I'm not the type of person to be like oh what a shitty H I don't really say things like that but these look to be good fits here now you might look at Notre Dame's offensive metrics from last year and say Kyle how could it get any better I mean this is an elite offense last year and you wouldn't be wrong by saying that I mean Notre Dame ninth in yards per play eighth in success rate seventh in PPA top 25 rushing attack and a top 25 passing attack Notre Dame's offense was great last year here's the thing they lost everybody Sam Hartman gone Austin ese he's on the Denver Broncos dude had over 1300 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns he was the Workhorse of this offense and the most important part the offensive line the pretty much the backbone of Notre Dame's offense every single year it got gutted the three best pieces of Notre Dame's offensive line are gone obviously Joe Al went early as hell in the NFL draft they also had another offensive lineman drafted in the second round of the NFL draft and the third offensive lineman they lost he was all independent last year so you you can make an argument that Notre Dame lost their three best offensive lineman and they brought in a left tackle a five star I think he's a five star uh that they really like huge highly touted Prospect he's hurt he's out for the season so this Notre Dame offense usually a unit you can hang your hat on Notre Dame always has a good offensive line I have questions about it especially in week one now bringing in an athletic quarterback like Riley Leonard could definitely help with that for sure I mean if you've watched Duke football over the last two years you know this dude is very talented using his legs but here's the thing about Riley Leonard and before I say this I'm not a Riley Leonard hater or anything this is just something I noticed when did Riley Leonard burst onto the scene 2022 right he had a monster 2022 season everyone was talking about him here's the Duke schedule from 2022 I gotta ask what defenses did Riley Leonard see here what is the best defense on Duke schedule in 2022 you might say hey at Miami that was the year Miami was 5- seven and missed out on a bowl game you might say hey at northwestern's tough pretty sure Northwestern was 1 and 11 That season so I'm looking at this what is the best defense that Riley Leonard saw in his breakout year he didn't see anybody he saw all garbage defenses that year I mean at pit okay that could be tough depending on the Year where are the good defenses where are the tough defenses that Riley Leonard saw in 2022 when he burst onto the scene it's a really easy schedule now let's take a look at Riley Leonard's opponent's last season at Louisville top 15 defense top 20 maybe at Florida State one of the best defenses in the country Notre Dame one of the best defenses in the country Clemson one of the best defenses in the country so last year he started actually seeing some good defenses want to know what his numbers were in those four games 45.5% completions 124.80 yards per game one touchdown to three picks now to be fair they won that Clemson game and Riley Leonard was good in that game he went off with his legs but as far as a passer every single time Riley Leonard saw a good defense he was terrible I mean these are terrible numbers he's on the road at Texas A&M here I mean that's one of the toughest places for a quarterback go to go and throw the ball every single year they always have a top three top five pass rush here are their numbers from last year definitely a top 25 defense look at their defensive line numbers a top 25 defensive line against the Run and the pass fourth in the country in sack rate I mean this isn't a one-off either I mean Texas A&M is like this every single year they're always sending Edge rushers to the NFL it feels like every single year and this upcoming season is no different they're returning an all SEC Edge rusher they also bring in a starting Edge rusher from Wisconsin and the dude who led the Big 10 in sacks last year from Purdue he's now at Texas A&M so they have three Edge rushers that might be playing in the NFL two of them almost definitely this season's going to be no different than any other year for Texas andm defensive front this might be the best pass rush in the country now again I want to reiterate I'm not hating on Riley Leonard here I'm not hating on Notre Dame in fact I think a lot of the questions we're asking right now will be sorted out by the second half of the season but as far as the opener on the road at Texas A&M with some question marks on the offensive line you lost your Superstar running back new quarterback in a new system a guy that has repeatedly shown us he struggles when he sees Elite defenses I don't know how you don't love the matchup here for Texas A&M's defensive front I think it's a nightmare spot for Riley Leonard but now we get to the other side Texas A&M's offense and if you're a Notre Dame fan this is where things start getting positive for you uh so Texas A&M's offense tough to get a read on cuz Conor Connor Wier went down with an injury Max Johnson ended up playing most of the Season still they had nice looking passing numbers uh rushing numbers were definitely down they could not replace Devon hn last year I mean if you might know him from the Miami Dolphins if you don't follow college football he was a monster here a couple years back struggled to replace him last year but I really think A&M takes a huge step forward in that department their top three RBS from last year return the three guys combined for over, 14400 yards rushing so no question more experience those RBS should we should see more production out of the running back position and as far as the offensive line really like the spot they're in there as well uh three starters back on the offensive line and the two transfers they brought in to start in the other two spots they were both starters last year so essentially bringing back five starters now two of them have never played in this system but essentially bringing back five guys that started in the FBS last year so the offensive line should take a step forward as well but the question is how big of a step forward are they going to take especially in week one because they're up against Notre Dame and look we can poke holes in the Notre Dame offense in this week one match up tough to poke holes in their defense I mean this is one of the best defenses in the country last year the defense is fifth in overall yards per play allowed fourth in defense a success rate third in defensive PPA look at their defensive line numbers this is a top 15 unit against the Run maybe a top 10 their pass rush numbers are pretty solid as well and that's actually something Texas A&M struggled with last year their offensive line struggled in pass protection so that could be key I mean they do bring back a bunch of starters so I expect A&M to be a little better but it's Notre Dame they're coming for the quarterback so the question's going to be do you believe in Connor Wagman or not personally I think this kid's really good I think he's the best quarterback in the FPS that isn't being talked about on that level obviously you got the guys on top projected to be first round picks I think this kid should be in that discussion and he's not because he got hurt so I think despite Notre Dame being Elite defense they have a great secondary too I think this kid can still make plays keep in mind he plays in the SEC it's not like seeing an elite defense like Notre Dame is going to catch Conor Wagman off guard I mean he plays in the SEC he's used to it so even though Notre Dame's defense is Elite I still expect this kid to make some plays down the field uh Texas A&M also brought in a couple real nice transfers at wide receiver as well so as you may have guessed from this video I did bet Texas A&M I got it at 2 and2 and I bet the money line at minus 145 I think I got it at um this trend I don't like though Andy threw this one in there Notre Dame 4-1 against the number as Road dog since 2018 Notre Dame not in this position often and when they are they're usually successful so if you like Notre Dame you definitely like the look of that but me I'm on the yaggies man I think this defensive line is a nightmare matchup uh for Riley Leonard making his first start at Notre Dame I expect to see a lot of pressure maybe a turnover or two and in my opinion I only need Connor wager to make one or two plays to win this game so I'm on the aies Texas A&M money line n minus 2 and 1/2 it's at 3: now I'd still play it at 3: obviously I like it better at the 2 and 1/2 though live show 10:00 a.m. eastern time we're going to be live for two hours straight we're going through every single FPS game on the board I think we got 27 lined up so we'll be live at 10:00 a.m. eastern time going through one at a time all the way up to kickoff if you're able to make it would love to see in the comments we're doing the community par play Everything uh the Saturday morning college football shows are usually pretty fun so if you're able to make it would love to see you if you want to see all the bets that I personally have open head over to kyle.com and click on open bets if you sign up for sauce Network plus you get access to it shows you every single bet that I currently have open right now uh also you can see every bet the whole staff has open and around 2: a.m. eastern time I'll post the the final write up like I did last year some of you might remember it'll have my top seven picks against the spread for that Saturday Underdog of the day parlay of the day just stuff like gimmicky stuff like that people like that stuff so I'll post that around 2: a.m. eastern time hope to see you on the live show let's remember to bet responsibly talk to in the Discord what