Clemson vs Georgia Week 1 Bets - College Football Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS continuing on with college football week one probably got the best game of the uh of the week here Clemson Georgia this one's at our neutral site it's in uh Atlanta so Clemson Georgia let's do it welcome to the [Music] S [Music] the sew hey get the sew all right like I said we got Clemson Georgia at a neutral site here looks like everywhere it's dropped down to 13 and a half now there were 14s out there for a while but it looks like Georgia is now laying 132 pretty much consensus total sitting at 48 1/2 let's take a quick look at the spreadsheet according to the model uh we got a lean on Georgia 35.3 to 20.8 so I mean pretty much right on bar before other sports books have it lean to towards the over but again as I keep mentioning this model is built with leg last year's metric so pretty much disregarded all right so let's get into this one uh and why don't we start with the last time these two teams met final score was 103 not a ton of offense in that game in fact Clemson had just 182 yards of offense uh not that Georgia did much offensively either this game was back in 2021 so pretty much irrelevant um so let's go ahead and start talking about this Clemson team uh coming off their first season with less than 10 wins since 2010 14 cons oh no I'm sorry 13 consecutive Seasons with 10 or more wins snapped last year um but I do have to say they're in pretty good shape this year really like their offense They're bringing back a ton of production uh here are their metrics from last year and obviously if you watch college football you know that Clemson's offense definitely underperformed last year uh total offense 97th in yards per play 36 in success rate here are their offensive game logs and I mean if you go from week four on from that Florida State game on honestly when Clemson Miss that field goal in the Florida State game that that team just died I mean their heart died look at the look at all the red after that I mean weren't even really getting the Run game going in a lot of these games as well so Clemson offense just really underperformed but like I said I really like the way they're shaping up this year cuz they bring back a ton of production they're 33rd in overall returning production but ninth I mean I'm sorry they bring nine returning starters back in the offense 13th in offensive returning production and it starts with quarterback Kade Club Nick who look I really don't think Kate Kick's that bad I it's kind of like we were talking about dju in the Florida State video last week I he's just put into a situation where he needs to be an NFL superstar in the making or everyone's going to hate him so I mean was it a great year for Club Nick last year no but I don't think it was absolutely terrible I mean over 20 over 2500 yards 19 touchdowns eight interceptions 6.1 yards per attempt definitely a little shaky but also they didn't get the best production as far as wide receivers left last year either but I think the most concerning thing about Kate kutnick last year was he really didn't finish the season strong I mean he started off looking a lot better look at his numbers from the last six games of last season 193 passing yards per game six touchdowns five picks played his best football early in the season but again like I mentioned didn't get a ton of production from the wide receiver position in fact the leading receiver on the team was a freshman Tyler Brown and obviously he's back as well as four of their top five wide receivers are back so certainly should see a dramatic step forward from Clemson as far as wide receiver production also they're fine at running back I mean will Shipley's gone he's in the NFL but when he got hurt last year Phil mafa came in and looked like a monster in fact you could probably make arguments that at times he looked even better than Shipley I mean I know that's kind of a crazy thing to say Shipley's in the NFL but this kid in Phil mafa he looks to be the real deal so they're fine at wide receiver they're fine at running back what about the offensive line well their offensive line was pretty solid last year you could look at the numbers here 19th in stuff rate 32 in power success rate uh decent run blocking unit decent pass blocking unit certainly not as good as we're used to seeing from Clemson but I have good news everyone's back everyone's back on the Clemson offensive line except the center which further hammers home the point I'm making which is this Clemson offense is in really good shape I mean there's not many years where Clemson doesn't send their whole offense to the NFL for the top five receivers Superstar running back pretty much the whole offensive Lineback quarterback back back for his third year I mean Clemson isn't in that kind of position often so I really think this Clemson offense is going to turn some heads this year the problem is they've got their hands full they're opening up against Georgia and as we know Georgia is as El leite as it gets across the board now on the defensive side last year we did see some holes in the Georgia defense specifically early in the season they were actually getting the ball run on them which is just not what we're used to seeing when it comes to Georgia football you can see their run defense numbers you might be thinking 27 yards per Carrie low 51st in success rate 17th in effective Rush it's not bad at all no no those numbers are great but by Georgia Bulldog standards I mean this team is usually one two or three in every run defense metric there is so this is actually a step backwards for Georgia's defense uh as far as defending the run last year and also their pass rush wasn't really there last year the 48th ranked pass rush does that sound like a Georgia defensive front 93rd in sack rate 68th in pass rush win rate I mean yeah Georgia's defensive line just didn't perform at Georgia's level and they still were an unbelievable football team and I have some good news if you're a Georgia fan they bring back ton of Talent on the defensive front five of Georgia's front seven on defense from last season are back this year they've got two all SEC defensive lineman back they've got an all SEC linebacker back and you can kind of say the same thing about Georgia's defense that I was talking about with Clemson's offense you don't see that very often usually Georgia is sending a handful of their defensive front of the NFL every single year they don't always get five of seven starters back so yeah was last season a down year for Georgia's defensive line by Georgia standard sure but I mean they should be right back up where we're used to seeing them one of the best defensive lines in the country now if you are looking to back Clemson here you can look at the fact that Georgia runs a lot of man coverage 51st and man coverage frequency but look at the numbers I mean they're one of the best secondaries in the country when they do run man coverage the reason I bring that up uh Kate kumnick much better passing number against B coverage last year 34th in passing grade against B coverage 62nd in passer rating 25th in comple your percentage against man coverage look at those numbers in comparison to his passing numbers against zone so the fact that Georgia defense that likes to run a man a lot of man coverage that could be an angle you're looking at here if you're trying to back Clemson thing is I mean I don't know if these numbers really apply to Georgia's defense because they're just loaded with NFL talent and they're the best events in the country at Running Man coverage so I don't know how much stock I would put into this thought it was interesting enough to mention though overall on this side like I said I'm big on Clemson's offense this year I think Kade kumnick is going to take a big step forward big year for the Clemson offensive line wide receiver should step forward Phil mafa looks like a superstar I'm big on the Clemson offense problem is I mean how do you doubt the Georgia defense I'm sure Clemson's going to be able to put up some points here just because they're just loaded with talent but as a whole I don't have a ton of faith in cons in Clemson consistently moving the chains on probably the best defense in the country now we look at the other side of Georgia's offense and I mean somehow it gets even better for Georgia on this side I mean as we know one of the best if not the best offens in football last year I mean look at these top 10 in every single metric rushing passing total offense I mean well-rounded Georgia does it all look at their passing numbers look at the The Columns to the right here those are the passing metrics just green everywhere Carson Beck absolutely killed it last year and he's back probably the best quarterback in the country here Carson backck over 3500 yard last year 22 touchdowns six interceptions I mean there wasn't much he did wrong last year and I think most people would agree so no question Carson Beck set up to have a huge season this year um did lose a couple of his receiving weapons though and we'll talk about that now as far as Trevor etn I mean I think this is being overblown a little bit I mean yeah Georgia lost both their running backs so they want them on the field but it's Georgia they're loaded with running backs I mean they got they're deep with Talent at the running back position and those two running backs they lost neither of them even got drafted into the NFL I mean this is a Georgia team that's used to losing an NFL running back pretty much every year or two so they're loaded with Talent even if Trevor Tan doesn't end up playing and by the way I believe Georgia policy is allowing him to play I just don't know if Kerby if Kirby Smart is going to allow him to play I believe that's the current situation I haven't followed it that closely um but basically the way I see it I don't think it really moves the needle for me whether he's on the field or off I mean he was electric with Florida last year but the truth is he was still the rb2 Montell Johnson was the guy that I thought was the rb1 on Florida don't get me wrong etn is a crazy playmaker and I'm sure he'll be a Savage here at Georgia um but as far as how I view this game doesn't really move the needle for me whe whether he's on the field or not um but now we get to the Georgia offensive line and this is where it just gets really tough to fade this team so for starters this was probably the best offensive line in college football last year um I mean you could probably make an argument that they've been the best offensive line in college football for a few years but yeah last year I'd say they were probably the best offensive line in college football and it gets even crazier than that four starters return just like Clemson gets four starters back on their offensive line Georgia four starters back on the offensive line so I mean hands down this is probably going to be the best offensive line in college football again I I don't see any way around that and here's the thing with Clemson defensive front I mean obviously Clemson's defense Elite last year uh top five defense in the country no question one of the best pass defenses in football third in yards per pass attempt allowed second in pass defense success rate third and effective pass no question Clemson's defensive line also great last year they had the second ranked run defense in college football 34th in defensive line yards surprisingly they struggled in short yardage situations I mean 117th and power success rate which is just weird but no question absolutely Elite on the defensive front last year here's the thing just one starter back of the defensive front seven for Clemson now this graphic is a little misleading it makes it sound like Clemson's defensive front got absolutely gutted and that's not the case I mean they're loaded they are still absolutely loaded I mean they have two All-American freshman on the defensive line that were All-American freshmen last year they've got NFL talent for days but they didn't start last year so as far as starters they did lose six of the seven and again what did I say in the Florida state Georgia Tech video we're not handicapping the whole season we're handicapping this game this week one game against Georgia against the best offensive line in college football so although this defensive front is still loaded and still going to be one of the best front sevens in the country I think that Georgia offensive line is going to bully him around a little bit especially in week one now I do have a couple conflicting Trends here um first one is Georgia's kind of owned Clemson in the last 10 years they've met three times Georgia's 3 and0 straight up three and against the spread don't love the look at that for Clemson um but on the other end of the spectrum Georgia did not cover a single spread last year in a non-conference game 03 And1 against the spread now to be fair on average they were laying about 39 points in those games so uh certainly this is a little bit different of a situation with the line down at 13 A2 uh I I would say neither of those Trends really move mve the needle for me I mean okay Georgia 3 and0 against Clemson the last 10 years these two teams completely different than the teams that played in those games so I'm not really too worried about that as far as betting this game if you watched the live show yesterday I said I was leaning towards Clemson at plus 13 and a half and I guess if you force me to make a pick against the spread I would take the points with Clemson but if I was forced to place one bet on this game I think on paper it would be the over I like both offenses better than I like both defenses Georgia's offense might be the best in the country this year just like it was last year and Clemson like I like I said multiple times in this video I really like the shape their offens is in so 482 with two of the best offenses in the country the reason I don't know if I'll actually place that I'm a little worried about the first game of the season as at a neutral sight those game those games tend to stay under the total so I don't think I'll actually bet it I mean it's Clemson Georgia week one I don't know how much value there is or how much value I see in betting this game to be honest but I'll say over 482 for the video with a lean on Clemson plus 132 if you want to see all the bets I have opened for week one uh head over to kyle.com there's a page called open bets and you can see every single bet I currently have open on both NFL and college football uh also you can see the entire staff there's tabs you just click on Whose bets you want to see um also when you sign up to Sauce Network plus it comes with access to the Discord and you can participate in the weekly betting league so if you're interested in that head over to kms.com and sign up uh live shows every weekday 400 p.m. Eastern e time weekends 10:00 a.m. eastern time if you're able to make it we love to see in the comments let's have ourselves a nice week one up a few dollars after week zero not much I went one in one but my Top Bet hit hopefully uh the positivity continues remember to bet responsibly and uh yeah talk to you in the Discord n