Miami vs Florida Week 1 Bets - College Football Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS college football week one continues and we got a good one here one of the best games of the week Miami it's at the swamp Miami Florida let's do it welcome to [Music] the the [Music] se s hey get the sew all right like I said canes are on the RO roing Gainesville for this one Florida short home dogs here plus 2 and 1/2 mostly uh total sitting at 54 54 1/2 across the board let's take a quick look at the spreadsheet and according to the model we got a lean on Miami here 30.4 to 22.2 but again this is last year's data so probably disregard this for the time being so let's get into this one and I think we should start by mentioning that both of these head coaches might be on the hot seat here probably more so Billy nap here um but both coaching staffs exactly the same as last year Mario christopal brings back both of his coordinators same goes for Billy Napier both same OC same DC uh so why don't we start with the Miami offense or we'll start with Miami in general returning production 30th in the country the hype in Miami is serious uh I mean and they have good reason to be hype they have a very good team 17 returning starters 10 on the offensive side of the ball um last year they were more of a pass happy team 46th in passing frequency just 88th in run frequency now that they've got Damen Martinez and cam Ward I expect that to be a little more balanced uh here are their offensive metrics 17th in yards per carry just 68th in rushing success rate though 42nd and effective Rush passing numbers look okay I mean these don't look bad Miami's offense definitely wasn't terrible last year um but like I said they brought in some pieces here's Damen Martinez brought in from Oregon State almost 12200 yards rushing over six yards a carry last year nine rushing touchdowns and I'm sure you've already heard cam Ward is now here at Miami over 3700 yd passing 25 touchdowns seven interceptions and that wasn't a one-off I mean he's been doing that for years he was with uh incate Ward first then Washington state for a few years so this is an experienced veteran quarterback most likely an NFL guy Miami is very excited to have him and Restrepo is back and if you didn't watch Miami football last year you don't know how clutch this dude is these numbers don't even tell the story 10 uh 1092 yards six receiving touchdowns I swear it felt like every third down Miami needed to convert this dude was always in the right spot they also bring back their number two receiver and they brought in a transfer Samuel Brown from Houston was who caught I think it was 800 yards last year so to reiterate Miami Superstar quarterback star running back three very good wide receivers and the offensive line looks pretty good as well they bring three starters back from last year and they stole a starter from Indiana so they brought in a starting Big 10 offensive lineman to replace one of the pieces they lost so it's really hard to PO hes in this Miami offense on paper they should be very very good this year now quarterback and running back in this system all have never played together before definitely worth mentioning but as far as the talent they're loaded up so how do they match up against Florida's defense um well Florida's defense was definitely disappointing last year they gave up a ton of yards I mean look at the yards per play yards per carry yards per pass attempt not good if you look at some of the more advanced metrics it suggests they weren't quite that bad but still still uh Florida's defense definitely a down year but what I will say for Florida is I actually really like their defensive line this year for starters their defensive line wasn't nearly as bad last year as you think um here are their defensive line metrics I mean top 50 pretty much in everything Sixth and power success rate they were very good in short yarded situations and they're huge this year they bring back three starters they also brought in two nice pieces in the transport portal they brought in the ivy league Defensive Player of the Year from I I I I think it was I'm I want to look I don't want to get this wrong the ivy league Defensive Player of the Year where was he from Andy Penn yeah so they brought in the ivy league defensive player of the year they also brought in a kid from Northern Illinois who's very good so this defensive line should be stacked and also they're huge they have four players on the defensive line 320 lb or more they also have a kid that's 4 something 440 lbs on there so this Florida defensive line is going to be huge physical very good so as far as matching up against Miami's offensive line I like it I think Florida's going to be competitive in that department I don't know if Miami is going to be able to get the Run game going between the tackles but as far as on the outside I mean Florida's secondary questionable against all those Miami weapons cam work and scramble there I can't count on Florida's defense to make stops because of all the talent Miami has but I do think they will win a lot of the battles on the inside now let's flip it over to the other side and this is where I think the most interesting part of this matchup is um the Florida offense 36th in pass frequency last year 51st in Pace nothing really jumps out there here are their uh their offensive metrics look at the passing Graham Merz now he missed the last two games of the year but when he was in there they were a pretty good passing attack I mean I liked what I saw from Graham merch I bet Florida a lot last year so I ended up watching a lot of Florida football I mean look at the metrics 43 in yards per pass attempt 34th in passing success rate 32nd in effective pass Graham merch 2900 yards 20 touchdowns just three interceptions he completed over 72% of his passes damn near 73% of his passes third in the country amongst quarterbacks grah Merz was good and he's got another year experience under his belt I don't think there's any reason to doubt him I mean I think he's going to have another good year now there may be something to be said as far as Florida losing some weapons I mean Trevor etn obviously over at Georgia now whether or not he's going to be playing a week one we'll see um he was a nice weapon for him 753 yards 5.7 yards per uh per carry eight rushing touchdowns now I think technically he was the rb2 though cuz Montrell Johnson I considered to be the starting running back there Montrell Johnson is still there 5.4 yards per carry five rushing touchdowns over 800 yards now I will say I hate that Ricky piol isn't there anymore uh he was kind of Florida's version of rreo in terms of whenever Florida needed a completion needed a conversion they looked at peol obviously he's gone in the NFL but this kid Eugene Wilson if you haven't heard of him yet you will this is NFL kid man he was a true freshman last year one of the most highly touted wide receiver recruits coming out of high school had offers from everywhere really broke on to the scene he's going to be a superstar and it's Florida I mean they always have weapons so yeah they lose Trevor uh etn yeah they lose Ricky peera and those are significant losses but they're going to have weapons man and they're going to need those weapons to win battles in this one cuz Miami runs a ton of man coverage 16th in man coverage frequency last year and they're pretty good at it um and Florida as far as Graham Merz better passing numbers against Zone coverage so they're going to need guys like Eugene Wilson to win their battles on the outside in this one but I trust that they have the pieces that are capable of doing it uh especially Eugene Wilson as I mentioned I think he's a superstar um now Miami's defense as a whole excellent against the Run definitely a little shaky against the pass uh you can see in this graphic here numbers look much better against the Run than the pass and here are Florida's offensive line numbers certainly not blowing you away here I mean struggled in pass protection not great in uh in the Run blocking Department either but last year's Florida offensive line was a mess they brought back just one returning starter this year They're bringing back essentially four starters on that offensive line so I expect Florida's offensive line to be much better and Miami on the defensive side their defensive line was loaded last year and I mean it's still loaded this year but they lost a few pieces that they replaced in the portal so week one against the Florida offensive line that's now experienced I think the gator can win some of those battles so as much as I think cam Ward and those Miami receivers are going to have a field day on the Florida secondary I also think gr Merz is going to go off I think gr Merz is going to cook in this game which is why I bet the over in this one um I took over 54 I already bet this if you put a gun to my head and force me to bet aside probably would take Florida I probably would grab a try to grab a plus three with Florida just take the home dog I think it's very coin flippy so I would side with the home dog but feel comfortable just chilling on my over if you want to see all the bets I have open currently for Week 1 and future bets head over to kyle.com and sign up for SCE Network plus you just click on the tab at the top that says open bets and you can see every single bet I have open right now as well as everyone on the staff here so head over to the website and sign up if you're interested sauce Network plus also comes with access to the Discord and you can participate in the weekly betting league so head over there live shows weekdays 400 p.m. eastern time and then the football mornings on the weekends 10:00 a.m. eastern time we'll be live 10:00 a.m. to noon going through every single game on the board great will to make it with love to see in the comments let's have ourselves a nice college football week one remember to bet responsibly and I'll talk to you in the Discord