Virginia Tech vs Vanderbilt Week 1 Bets - College Football Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS Virginia Tech Vanderbilt college football week one let's do it welcome to the [Music] SWS [Music] this SE hey get this sew all right like I said Hokies are on the road in Vandy for this one looks like Vanderbilt's catching 13 a 12 points at home total sitting at 40 82 or 48 depending on your sports books let's take a quick look at the spreadsheet and according to the model 33.3 for Virginia Tech 16.5 for Vanderbilt but again as I keep saying this this model is using last year's metrics probably won't start using this or referencing it till week three or four so let's get into this one and we'll start with Virginia Tech and as I'm sure you've heard this team's loaded this team has very high hopes this year and for good reason bringing back a ton of production from last year they're actually fourth in the country in returning production first in offensive returning production look at their returning production on offense I mean their Star Quarterback Kiron Jones is back both running backs are back for the top five receivers are back all five starters on the offensive line are back uh and by the way this is a pretty good offense last year they ran the ball a lot 27th in run frequency um but I expect Kiren Jones to develop as a passer as well but look at the success they had running the ball last year 17th in the country in yards per carry 42 in rushing success rate 11th in effective rush and with all those pieces back back might even be I mean I think it's safe to assume it will take a step forward so this is going to be a really dangerous rushing attack here are the two rushers back the quarterback and the running back for Virginia Tech both rush for over 800 yards both close to 5 yards per carry 15 rushing touchdowns between the two of them so yeah this is going to be dangerous um the weakness of the Virginia Tech offense last year was the offensive line not that these numbers are terrible but they're not excellent with all five starters returning I expect these numbers to improve as well and another thing I like here for the Virginia Tech offense is they they started last season off slow look at the numbers in the first three games just 83 rushing yards per game terrible yards per carry offensive line yards rushing success rate all looks bad drones was named the starter in week three look at the remainder of the Season 206 rushing yards per game 5.39 yards per carry 3.29 offensive line yards so when drones took over as quarterback everyone started playing better and this became one of the better rushing attacks in football by the way Jones can also throw it 1989 yards passing 7.5 yards per attempt 15 touchdowns three interceptions um obviously Virginia tackle was definitely known more for their rushing attack but I expect him to develop as a passer as well so yeah again nothing negative to say about the Virginia attack offense they're going to be a Powerhouse and they're up against Vanderbilt's defense now obviously it's terrible here are the numbers from last year they were 126 then yards per play allowed 109th in success rate 131st in PPA this is a terrible defense last year I will say the defensive front should take a dramatic step forward this year they got three starters on the defensive line back only one linebacker returning that's a starter but he was their number one leading tackler last year so as far as Vanderbilt's defense against the run I expect it to be somewhat respectable and by the way their defensive line play wasn't that bad last year 70th in defensive line yards 59th in stuff rate 74th in power success rate that's not terrible their defensive line wasn't absolutely terrible this year and they're bringing three starters back and their leading tackling linebacker definitely don't love the look of that for Virginia Tech I mean that offense was so riing on the Run game last year and I expected to be one of the best rushing attacks in the country this year but opening up the season on the road against a Vanderbilt run defense that I actually think is going to be respectable so I don't love that for Virginia Tech um but let's flip it over to the other side of the of the field and talk about Vanderbilt's offense uh we got a new guy calling the plays Tim Beck is in from New Mexico State Joey Lynch got fired last year uh Tim Beck certainly a successful campaign over in New Mexico state that offense was really impressive last year uh with Diego Pavia by the way Diego Pavia is here at Vandy as well uh 16th in the country in yards per play 12th in success rate 21st in PPA rushing numbers excellent across the board the combination of hiring Tim Beck to coach the offense and bringing in Diego Pavia to play quarterback we're going to see a dramatic shift in the play calling here Vander bball threw the ball a lot last year 23rd in passing frequency now some of that is a result of them being down on the scoreboard a lot but I mean look at the the splits for New Mexico state's play calling they're 39th in run frequency so I definitely expect Vanderbilt to run the ball significantly more this year and not to mention their team's built for it if you look at their their numbers from last year it looks like the opposite they're passing numbers I mean it's bad across the board but their passing numbers certainly better than their rushing numbers from last year look at their personnel look at the weapons from last year they've lost everybody wide receiver gone to Colorado wide receiver gone to Georgia tight end gone to Mississippi State wide receiver gone to Boston College the only one of their major weapons from last year that stayed at Vanderbilt is their rb1 Cedric Alexander you add that in with the fact that Diego Pavia is playing quarterback a good physical Runner 928 rushing yards last year over five yards per carry seven rushing touchdowns not that he can't throw it I mean 2470 yards passing 20 touchdowns six interceptions he could throw the ball as well but no question if thego pby as your quarterback you're going to be looking to build some kind of physical rushing attack and by the way Vanderbilt's offensive line last year in terms of run blocking really wasn't that bad offensive line yard stuff rate power success rate these are pretty average looking numbers and their offensive Line's actually in pretty good shape this year they bring three starters back from last year and the two other starters are both transfers that started last year one at Liberty and one at Mississippi State so Vanderbilt might actually have a good offensive line I think they're going to be able to run the football and by the way Virginia Tech absolutely loaded on offense pretty damn good on defense as well but there is if there's one weakness with this team it's defending the run here are the numbers from last year just 66 in yards per carry allowed 75th in effective Rush here are the run defense numbers from last year I mean not terrible 37th in defensive line yards 35th in stuff rate 54th in power success rate these aren't awful and I expect these to improve because they bring back five of their seven defensive front but still this is probably the weakest spot or at least was last year of this Virginia Tech team was defending the run on the road against a Vanderbilt team that I think is going to have a rushing attack I do so I really don't like the look of that especially considering we're talking about laying two touchdowns on the road here U now as far as betting Trends since 20121 Virginia Tech 9-9 against the number as favorites nothing there just 4- 10 against the spread in non-conference games that's definitely not great but if we're talking betting Trends we know that the Vanderbilt ones aren't going to look great 4- 10 against the spread as home Underdog since 2021 3 and N against the spread in non-conference games so both of these teams have performed terribly in their non-conference games um as far as betting this game man I'd be lying if I said I don't want to bet Vandy put let's put Vanderbilt plus 13 and a half on the screen haven't bet this yet um also put the over up if you can get a 48 the reason that I don't think I can bet this over both of these teams well I shouldn't say both these teams vanderbelt ran a slow pace last year and Tim Beck with New Mexico state that offense was great very slow pace so we're talking about two teams who I expect to be running a pretty slow pace plus I'm expecting a lot of runs a lot of running the football in this game slow pace with a clock rolling doesn't help an over although I think both offenses will be able to move the ball so I'll put over up on the screen gun to my head forc me to make a bet in this game I yo I always get smoked when I try taking Vanderbilt give me Vanderbilt plus 13 and a half if a 14 flashes I'll take it if I can get a Vanderbilt plus 14 I will place that bet at 13 and2 it'll be Vandy or pass I'll let you know on the live show um so Saturday morning we're going through every single game on the board there's going to be like 30 of them 10:00 a.m. eastern time to 12:00 noon right up to kickoff we're going through a mall if you're able to make it we'd love to see in the comments um if you want to see all the bets I have opened currently head over to Kyle crs.com and click open bets uh it just shows and it's not just me it's the whole staff you can see there's tabs for each of us you can see what bets each of us have personally placed uh so head over to ky.com and sign up for sauce Network plus if you're interested in that also comes with access to the Discord and we do a weekly betting League $150 and a trophy go to the winner every single week so if you're interested in that head over to the website and sign up let's have ourselves a nice uh nice week one I made a few dollars in week zero just a few I'll take it in the green uh hopefully that continues remember to bet respons I'll talk to you in the Discord n