FAU vs Michigan State Week 1 Bets - College Football Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS continuing on with college football week 1 to an FAU Michigan State in this one this game is on Friday night let's go welcome to the [Music] S [Music] the S hey get this sew all right like I said we got Florida Atlantic they're on the road here uh in East Landing Michigan State lane two touchdowns at home there are 13 and a halfs out there though if you look um total sitting at 45 1/2 45 45 half or 45 as at the time of recording this let's take a quick look at the spreadsheet and according to the model 26.3 to 24.2 Michigan State again these models are using last year's metrics just a representation of how poor Michigan state was last year um it's not adjusted to the new rosters or anything so we could probably disregard the model for now uh so let's go ahead and get into this one and we'll start with the uh we're looking at a new era here for Michigan State Mel Tucker's tenure with the team definitely unsuccessful they did have one really good season where they went 11 and three uh 22 and 22 record in total but just 9 and 17 in these last two seasons it was definitely time for a change here and from all from the looks of it they made the right hire I mean Jonathan Smith very good job out there in Oregon State Oregon state was 1 and 11 the year before he took that job and in the last three seasons there at Oregon State they were 25 and 14 so definitely turned that program around um he brought his OC with them Brian lingren um and the DC comes from Minnesota Joe Rossy he was a member of PJ Flex staff so look I'm not going to be I'm not going to pretend to be an expert like oh great hire but from the looks this looks to be a good higher this looks to be a good a solid coaching staff here at Michigan State um I expect the offensive style to change a little bit they threw the ball a lot last year 29th in pass frequency now that might also be a result of them being down on the scoreboard a lot um but Jonathan Smith and his staff out at Oregon State they like to run the football a little more so I expect Michigan State to try to get the Run game going uh maybe try to recreate another Kenneth Walker um the problem with Michigan state is they're not returning a ton of production especially on the offensive side 72nd in returning production 15 returning starters just five on offense the big one though the big new piece is the quarterback child and I'm going to play the clip from our live show when we talked about Charles Aiden Charles taking over the quarterback job in Michigan they there's a bunch of new pieces yeah they look like shiny new toys can they score go ahead Andy tell us about your boy Aiden child the second coming of of Tom Brady yeah Aiden Charles is if you don't know him now you're going to know him by the end of next year for sure uh this this kid's going to be insane he's following following Smith from Oregon State he was the number one rated quarterback transfer that beats out Dylan Gabriel and all those guys that also transferred this year he was ranked number one and there's a reason for that he didn't get to play much cuz DJ OU young last year he so good and so electric start DJ he was a true freshman last year and in the little very little time he played he looked amazing everybody from their camps are saying he's amazing I trust that that I mean he was the number he was one of the top rated quarterbacks in the country coming out put Aiden child on the screen so they can see this guy that and's claiming is going to be a superstar um and and something that I do like about him he was in this system last year I said he followed Smith from Oregon state that helps a lot this is a quarterback that already knew how to run this system coming in he can he can help teach everybody else um around the system too and I think that that this I think the offense is the strength of the team cuz I know we haven't we're going to talk about the defense they lost a lot there this offense has a lot of really good Playmakers uh so yeah safe to say there's a lot of hype surrounding the kids certainly got the quarterback they wanted for the future um running backs are also set Nate Carter the rb1 from last year he's back 800 rushing yards four touchdowns they got almost no production from the running back position last season but the production they did get all came from him they were not deep at all so they got Nate Carter back at rb1 they also bring in Lynch Adams from UMass 1157 yards 4.9 yards for carrying 12 touchdowns at UMass last year so Michigan state two good backs in the back Field behind Aiden Charles um now the offensive line for michingan State this is where I start to worry this was not a good offensive line last year I mean 125th in offensive line yards they did not create much space in the running game at all now we have to keep in mind they play a big 10 schedule so they're playing playing against a lot of really big really physical defensive lines you can see here the Run blocking grade which incorporates strength of schedule it's up at 77 so they took into consideration all the tough defensive fronts they've seen um but it doesn't matter cuz this year's Michigan State offensive line is completely different it's gutted I think they lost four starters and it might even be a fifth because the fifth position rotated a little bit they lost a ton of production here on the offensive line and they're up against FAU who didn't even have a bad run defense last year 34th in the country in yards per carry 49th in run defense success rate now they did play a very easy schedule but three of their top four linebackers are back so this is a pretty solid run defense last year I expect them to do a good job against the run this year as well if you look at their returning production yeah on the offensive side of the ball they are screwed and we'll get to that in the second but on the defensive side of the ball eight returning starters really not bad at all here are their defensive game blogs look at the rushing category right in the middle there look at all that green 3.1 yards per carry 3.4 3 6 4.1 3.4 not a lot of teams are running the football in FAU last year not to mention They're bringing back the same exact coaching staff same defense of coordinator you combine that with the fact that they're returning eight returning starters this run defense was pretty good last year pretty solid and they're up against Michigan State that's got a completely new coaching staff a completely new offensive line I don't think it's crazy to say FAU is able to keep Michigan State from killing them on the ground in this game despite the talent discrepancy now will Florida Atlantic struggle to defend the pass again this year probably but I mean we got a freshman quarterback brand new coaching staff I don't know how much faith I have in aen child to just rip it up in the first game of the season so I don't think it's crazy that FAU does a decent job defensively here now on the other side of the ball this is where things go south for Florida Atlantic cuz I don't know where the offense is coming from uh last year they threw the ball a lot didn't really have much quarterback play you can see their offensive metrics from last year I mean 111th and effective Rush 99th and effective pass so I guess that's not too terrible and I mean you can make a case that they upgraded at quarterback they brought in cam faner from Marshall I mean he wasn't great at Marshall last year but he wasn't absolutely terrible it was certainly better than what they had last year I think they had Daniel Richardson was it Daniel Richardson playing quarterback last year Andy Daniel Richardson was the quarterback at fa yeah so they had Daniel Richardson playing quarterback last year he I mean put it delicately he struggled so cam faner coming in to play quarterback should be an upgrade but other than that I mean who's there on this offense their top two running backs are gone their top three wide receivers are gone four their five offensive lineman are gone and this was a bad offense last year so yeah they brought in cam faner should be an upgraded quarterback what does he have to work with here and now you might be thinking yo Kyle they're playing Michigan State though and Michigan State Defense was asked last year and you wouldn't be wrong in saying that but they've got a ton of linebackers back they've actually got a bunch of Playmakers at linebacker there's three starters gone on the defensive line but they did bring in some uh pieces through the transfer portal and like I keep mentioning it's Michigan stay for FAU there's a big Talent discrepancy here so with that FAU offense just completely gutted I almost don't care what condition Michigan State's defense is in I don't think fa is going to score points here so as far as betting this game this is where it gets challenging because someone asked me about this game in the Discord and I said I'd like fau's team total under at 16 and a half I was hoping to get a 17 the next day it was 13 and 1/2 and it's actually 12 and 1/2 on some sports books no I'm not saying it because I said that but it's crazy this dropped like a rock the total in this game so on paper I kind of like the under based on the fact that I think both offenses are going to struggle but I'm not going to bet the under one the total just dropped so we lost value there but also I think there's a really high risk for turnovers in this game cam faner is going to try to be a hero with not much help on the offense on the road inise lanzing I think he's going to turn the ball over the other side you got a freshman quarterback so I think we're going to see some turnovers and I think Michigan State's going to stumble their way into to a cover here so as far as a pick for this video there's a 13 1/2 on FanDuel give me that Michigan State minus 13 1/2 haven't bet this one yet I don't know I'm still combing the board I only have about six bets open for week one so far this is not one of them but I wouldn't be surprised if I ended up betting this Michigan state- 13 and2 if you'd like to see all my current open bets and open bets from everyone on the staff here head over to kcs.com and sign up for sauce Network plus they're listed right there on the website also comes with access to the Discord and you can participate in the weekly betting League $150 and a trophy go to the winner every single week so head over to the website and sign up if you're interested live shows 400 p.m. eastern time weekdays uh 10:00 a.m. eastern time weekends so if you're able to make it we love to see in the comments we'll go through every single game on the board let's have ourselves a great week one I'm up a few dollars from week zero I bet two games I went one in one but the Georgia Tech game I won was my top bet that week so I'm up a few dollars hopefully we stay green again for week one remember to bet responsibly and I'll uh see you in the Discord