LSU vs USC Week 1 Bets - College Football Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS college football week one continues one last game and it's a good one LSU USC uh as far as Saturday definitely wasn't my day uh well I mean actually on the surface it doesn't look too bad my top bets are 2 and two so far I mean so that doesn't look terrible but I lost some other bets on the side so I'm definitely down today um if I can get Wyoming plus 7 and A2 actually it won't even be that bad at all but they're off to a terrible start Wyoming and man I don't even want to talk about rice ever again what I that was I am shocked at how bad rice looked in that game but whatever um let's put in the past move on we got LSU USC let's do it welcome to the [Music] sour [Music] the SE hey get this us all right like I said LSU USC uh this one's at a neutral site it's in Vegas um LSU laying 4 or 4 and A2 depending on your sports book this one opened up at 6 and 1/2 so which dropped a couple points total sitting at four uh 64 1/2 right now opened at 662 so that's also dropped a couple points let's take a quick look at the spreadsheet and according to the model we got 32.8 for LSU 28 even for USC so a slightly on LSU but again we're using last year's model so probably should disregard this for now so let's get into this one and we'll start with the changes to the LSU coaching staff obviously Mike Den Brock gone left he took the Notre Dame OC job or actually just watching the end of that one right now um but more importantly well I shouldn't say more importantly but the more notable change is they fired Matt house the defensive coordinator and they bring in Blake Baker from Missouri now he put together a solid defense over there in Missouri here are their numbers from last year solid against the Run solid against the pass definitely a borderline top 25 defense I don't know too much about him but on the surface that looks like a pretty solid higher um and then on the USC side kind of a similar situation now their OC is still there Henson Lincoln Riley obviously still there but they fired their DC as well Alex Grinch they bring in Danton Lynn and he was coaching the UCLA defense last year which was excellent one of the best pass rushes in the country last year here are the UCLA defensive numbers from last year I mean definitely a top 25 defense maybe even a top 10 defense so both of these teams taking steps to improve their defense this year uh and if you watched college football last season you know that both of these teams needed to take steps to improve their defense this year that was the glaring weakness with both these programs to Elite offenses two terrible defenses last season um but why don't we start and talk about the loss of production at quarterback on both sides two NFL guys gone I'm sure you've heard of him Caleb Williams on the USC side Jaden Daniels on the LSU side I mean look at the numbers lost here passing yards rushing yards well rushing yards more so on Jay and Daniels 91 total touchdowns within the two of these guys gone that's actually crazy I don't know if I've ever seen anything like that before so no question these two quarterbacks have some huge shoes to fill uh so why don't we start out with the USC side here are their offensive play calling numbers from last year obviously as we know USC passes a lot in fact that's pretty much all they do if you look at their production their rushing numbers aren't really bad but I mean again they don't really run the ball at all they're mostly a passing team at least they have been recently um passing numbers this is a top 10 passing unit as I'm sure you know Caleb Williams and you know what Miller Moss better be ready to play now because it's shaping up like USC is going to have to be a passing offense again their top three rushers are gone from last year combined for over, 1400 yards rushing um USC's offensive line a bit of a concern for me not that this offensive line was terrible last year but it wasn't great here are their blocking numbers I mean pretty average run blocking numbers their pass protection actually a little bit below average and if you watch USC you know that was a thing Caleb Williams running for his life a lot of last year these are not great uh pass PL metrics here and the offensive line is in a bit of a situation three starters gone from last season that's not exactly what you want to see when you have a new quarterback taking over the job uh now you might be thinking Kyle who cares they're playing LSU LSU doesn't play any defense and if we talking about last year's LSU team I mean you wouldn't be wrong look at their defensive metrics 998th in yards per play allowed 97th in defensive success rate definitely not good against the pass at all but here's one thing I will point out about LSU's defense last season and look by no means am I going to sit here and try to tell you that LS defense was good of course it wasn't but their pass rush wasn't bad I mean there were a 31st rated pass rush 55th in sack rate 42nd in pass rush win rate didn't generate a ton of pressure but as a whole the pass rush wasn't nearly as bad as the rest of their defense was uh keep in mind they got a new DC in here this guy comes from Missouri who we already mentioned had a great defense last year they also had a great pass rush and LSU brought back some of their main pieces as far as the pass rush goes uh Harold Perkins is back now they used him as an inside linebacker a lot last year not strictly an edge rusher but we know he's certainly capable uh Greg Penn the third is back he uh he had four sacks last year 89 tackles um what's the other guy's name where is he on this list one second Sean Jones is back he's a defensive end for them so they're bringing back some pass rushers and this pass rush wasn't half bad last year we just mentioned how USC's offensive line three starters gone and they struggled in pass protection last year so I think LSU's pass rush is going to get home I do so what can we really expect from Miller Moss at quarterback here obviously we don't love the idea of LSU's pass rush giving him some problems and that might be a situation um as far as his performance I mean I'm sure you all know he went absolutely ballistic in the Holiday Bowl 372 yards six touchdowns at 218 passer rating basically that performance won him this starting job or at least people are saying that I don't know if there's truth to that but it certainly seems like this this performance right here got him this starting job can he replicate anything like this I truly have no idea I know a lot of people I trust are very big on him some people say he's a sleeper pick for the Heisman might not even be a sleeper pick honestly so yeah ceiling is Skyhigh here I mean not only is he the quarterback for USC but he's also the quarterback in Lincoln Riley's offense which means you're definitely going to be in the Heisman discussion but I don't like the idea of LSU's pass rush winning their battles against USC's offensive line which I think is a has a high probability of happening and also USC's two receivers are gone uh rice and Washington they both got drafted uh in the seven I think I believe they both went in the seventh round actually and I think the one guy got cut but their wide receiver 1 and two are both gone now it's USC they have other receivers for sure but I really would like to see some more experienced receiving weapons out there for Miller moss in this one LSU ran a ton of Zone coverage last season um and typically the quarterback and receiver being on the same page making the same read that's how you beat Zone coverage that's why you always take Travis Kelce overs against a team that runs Zone coverage because he always goes off him and Mahomes are on the same page typically is true for a lot of veterans don't like how there's a new quarterback and and the wide receiver one and two are both gone now to be fair the DC's gone and the new DC that comes in from Missouri they ran man coverage last year so this might be completely irrelevant cuz they might be running man this year so this might have been a waste of your time to read it overall on this side though I got to say I really don't love the matchup for USC's offense here I know you you hear USC Lincoln Riley against LSU's defense everyone's expecting him to go off I think LSU's pass TR is going to win their battles and I think the real weakness of LSU's defense is going to be defending the run this year they lost a lot of their interior defensive line USC doesn't run the ball they lost our top three RBS and they have a shaky offensive line I don't trust Lincoln Riley's offense to be the one to exploit a bad run defense they need to throw the ball and LSU is going to have a pass rusher at least I think they're going to so I think LSU's defense will be able to make stops here now on the other side of the ball we got the LSU offense and you're not going to get more green than this graphic right here uh best offense in college football wasn't really even a discussion obviously the Heisman Trophy winner uh Jaden Daniels is gone uh the new rb1 on the team is Josh Williams 284 yards rushing last year he was third on the team did average over five yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns um but the strength of this LSU team this year is going to be the offensive line first of all they were one of the best offensive lines in college football last year in fact next to Georgia maybe Notre Dame I would put them third or four I mean they were right up there LSU's offensive line was great last year they bring back four starters only the center is gone so that great LSU offensive line from last year that that were scoring 50 60 points a game and leading Jaden Daniels to his Heisman trophy they're basically back I know everyone's talking about Malik Neighbors being gone I know everyone's talking about Brian Thomas being gone they're both in the NFL huge losses I'm not trying to downplay them but personally I'd be more worried if this offensive line was gone the fact that they get four of these Five Guys back I mean it's LSU they're going to have talent at the wide receiver position if you don't believe me go to Google type in LSU wide receivers in the NFL right now and have yourself a good read They're going to have down at this position yeah they lose two superstars but the offensive Line's back obviously Brian Kelly still there I think they'll be fine I still think they're going to be one of the best offenses in the country again this year um and they're matched up against USC's defense and just like LSU's defense uh the graphics looking pretty red here certainly struggled against the Run actually slightly better against the pass Believe It or Not 91st in yards per play allowed 112th in success rate and just like LSU's defense the only strength on the defensive side for USC was rushing the passer look at these numbers on the right side of this traffic actually a decent pass rush the difference is LSU's offensive line was Elite in pass protection last year USC's was not and LSU's offensive line from last year brings back four starters USC's only two so you uh LSU on the offensive side much better equipped to deal with a pass rush than USC is and it shouldn't even be close in that department now when we get to the quarterback this is probably where a lot of people see the discrepancy here U Miller Moss is being talked about as a Heisman Trophy candidate Garrett nus Meer really not but the thing is nus meer is more experienced and just like Miller Moss he did go off in the bowl game 395 yards three touchdowns and 160 pass rating now it's not six touchdowns but still he went off and like I said unlike Miller Moss this dude's been with LSU for three years he started games before I mean he's not as brand new as Miller moss in fact this kid played in the SEC Championship game in 2022 against Georgia I mean this kid is experienced so I am not worried at all with him at quarterback especially behind that offensive line like I said I think LSU will will be a top 10 offense again and the reason that's significant look how USC's defense performed against ranked opponents last year they allowed 422 points per game 50.6% defensive success rate is crazy PPA crazy 7.31 yards per play allowed 7.31 yards per play that is crazy every time USC's defense saw a good offense they got cooked last year so look USC brings in a new defensive coordinator May maybe they improve in that department as the year progresses but week one against LSU that's a tough ask man I think LSU's offense is going to score points which is why I'm on the LSU side I bet it at minus 4 also wouldn't be mad at an over even though the Market's moving it the other way moved it down two points since the open if you want to see all the bets I have opened currently head over to Kyle ks.com and click on open bets you'll see me and every member of the staff right on that page if you're interested also if you sign up for sauce Network plus you can participate in the bet League All right so here's how it's going to work this is the first time I'm explaining this on YouTube and it starts this week so if you're a member of SAU Network plus you can participate in the league now the first night of football if you submit bets in the Discord for the league you'll be assigned a division at random so depending on how many people sign up maybe eight divisions 12 divisions we'll see so th Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday you'll be submitting bets in the Discord for the league whoever is leading their division at the end of the day Sunday the division winners will compete on Monday Night Football uh to for the $150 and the trophies which I think got here today so the football handicapping trophies are in so that's how it's going to work I'll post a video explaining it in the Discord so if you're interested in that head over to the website let's have ourselves a nice Sunday night here bet some baseball get some of the dollars I lost in college football today uh it's all right early in the season and I was having a nice little run there I knew it could have last forever I remember to bet responsibly I'll talk to you in the Discord