Kansas State vs Tulane Week 2 Bets - College Football Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS college football week 2 Kansas State 2 Lane let's go welcome to the [Music] S the [Music] S SE hey get the SE all right like I said K states on the road at two lane for this one looks like the tens are gone Li's pretty much sitting at 9 1/2 two lane is home dogs here uh total sitting at 492 consensus across the board um let's get into this one and we'll start with the fact that these two teams just played two years ago and two lane got them outright final score was 1710 now this was 2 years ago uh Adrien Martinez was actually playing quarterback for Kansas state will Howard hadn't even taken over as the starter yet so this is pretty much irrelevant but thought it was worth mentioning now we really didn't get a great look at either of these two teams last week they both had relatively easy competition um but I think the main talking point for Kansas state is the new look on offense obviously under Chris kimman uh this has been an offense first program they have one of the best offenses in the Big 12 even up there with Texas and Oklahoma and and the teams well the former Big 12 teams I should say um but Kansas State offensive Juggernaut under Chris kinman it's going to look a little different this year um as we've spoken about um there's a new OC first of all Colin Klein's gone he's over at Texas A&M with Mike Elco Conor Riley takes over as OC but it's not the just the fact that there's a new OC the Personnel is a little different than we're used to seeing just four returning starters on the offensive side for Kansas State Avery Johnson takes over as quarterback and he's very highly touted they love him they have very high hopes for this kid um definitely more of an athlete than will Howard we'll have to see if he's as good of of a thrower I think they believe he is um week one against UT Martin 14 of 21 153 yards two touchdowns again it was UT Martin hard to draw any sort of conclusions from a game like that look at the rushing numbers against UT Martin 31 carries 283 yards they average 9.1 yards per carry as a team here's the thing they're not going to be able to do that against tane on the road I mean this Kansas State offensive line there's four starters gone from last year so no question we expect Kansas State to take a step backwards in that department and tane is not UT Martin in fact tulan had a really good run defense last year 25th in yards per carry allowed 4 first in run defense success rate they're ranked 34th in effective Rush look at their defensive line metrics I mean this was the 24th ranked run defense according to Pro Football Focus uh 60th in defensive line yard 66 in stuff rate those don't look great but no question T Lane did a great job against the run last year and they bring back a decent amount of production too just 96 them returning production overall but they do bring back 15 starters seven of them on the defensive side here's the problem and here's why I'm a little hesitant to just blindly trust this defense coaching staff's gone Willie Fritz obviously takes the Houston job he brings his DC with them so we got Greg garado coaching the defense now um like I said personnel-wise he should have the pieces to continue on from the good run defense we had there last year um but overall I'm a little shaky to trust it either way though even with the uncertainty in the new coaching staff for two lane Kansas State yeah we may not have seen the the four new offensive lineman show against UT Martin but on the road at tlane I think we're going to notice it I expect Kanas state to struggle a little bit offensively but before we go and grab a two-lane plus 9 1/2 ticket we got to take a look at the other side of the ball and man I got questions on this side as well again new coaching staff but not just that I mean there's all kinds of questions here first of all this offense couldn't run the ball last year 69th in yards per carry 109th in success rate but that's not from lack of trying they were 22 in run frequency so most of their play calling was designed to get the Run game going they weren't very good at it the offensive line had some solid looking run blocking metrics 49th in run block grade 68th in offensive line yards 22nd in stuff rate but three starters are gone from that unit as well so we just pointed out how four starters are gone from the Kansas State offensive line oh two Lan's offensive line lost three starters as well and by the way what's going on at quarterback here I mean Tai Thompson comes in from Oregon we expect I mean everyone expects him to be the starter he loses the job to a freshman Daran Mena and I mean I not going to sit here and pretend to know a ton about this kid I don't look pretty damn good in the opener 10 of 12 205 yards two touchdowns 91.8 qbr but again I like who did they play here Southeast uh Southeast Louisiana so just like the the Kansas State 9.1 yards per carry I really don't know what to make of these numbers either I don't know if this kid won the starting job or if Tai Thompson lost the starting job if you understand what I'm saying you know what if you're a two-lane fan and you follow it close more closely than I do put it in the comments that what happened in this off season why is Tai Thompson not the starter anyway back to the matchup uh so yeah two lane loses three starters on the offensive line and this Kansas State Defense I just got done expressing my concerns with the Kansas State offense the new look new pieces in the offensive line I actually like the Kansas State Defense this year and that's not something you usually say about a Chris climbing Kansas State team six of the seven starters in the Kansas State defensive front are back six of the seven and this really wasn't a terrible defense last year they were 86 in yards per play allowed which isn't great but 19th in success rate thir th in PPA so I think this defense is going to be greatly improved so as much as I'm uncertain about Avery Johnson and his hype I'm uncertain about the Kansas State offensive line and the missing pieces I do like the running backs though uh the defense I like Kansas State's defense to take a big step forward here and two lane with the uncertainty on their offensive side of the ball I think Kansas State's going to give him problems as well so overall I think we're going to see some pretty good defense on both sides in this one um which would Point me towards an under at 49 A2 the reason I haven't bet it yet and the reason I'm probably not going to bet it is the Pace Kansas State 14th in Pace of play last year uh yes Colin Klein has gone the OC but Conor Riley takes over who's been with the program it's still a Chris kimman team so I expect Kansas State to run a fast-paced offense again just like it did last year and on the other side keep in mind this two-lane coaching staff comes from Troy last year Troy ran a pretty decent paced football game themselves they were 56th in Pace they also threw the ball a lot last year which also points towards over so even though I think as far as the football matchup offense versus defense I like the matchup for both defenses I think the way this football game is going to go or the way it should go in my opinion might Point towards an over so my pick for the game is an under but I think there's too many avenues for that to get busted so it'll be under a pass for me I guess gun to my head I guess I'd lean towards two lane plus the points but I don't trust the offense enough so under a pass for me if you want to see all the bets I personally have right now head over to kyle.com and click on open bets it also comes with access to open bets from everyone on the staff as well as you can participate in the weekly betting League starts Thursday um $150 and a trophy go to the winner every single week um so like I said you got to have your your pick submitted in the Discord by Thursday if you want to participate in that let's have ourselves a nice week to I personally didn't have a great week one uh so hopefully we bounce back week two remember to bet responsibly and I'll talk to you in the Discord [Music]