Kansas vs Illinois Week 2 Bets - College Football Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS uh continuing on with college football week 2 got a big 12 matchup here Kansas on the road Illinois let's go welcome to the [Music] S the [Music] s s hey get the sew all right like I said Kansas is on the road at Illinois for this one a line night catching five and a half points at home total sitting at 55 and a half uh so let's get into this one and why don't we start by looking at last year's matchup they played week two last year this one was at Kansas uh final score 34-23 Jayhawks got the win um so now obviously we're in Illinois and we'll start by looking at the Kansas offensive numbers from last year and obviously they're impressive as if you watch college football last year you know Kansas had a very impressive offense one of the best offenses in the country six in yards per play ninth in success great fifth in PPA they were a great rushing offense they were a great passing offense although they didn't pass as much uh they were still incredibly efficient both running the ball and throwing the ball that being said I do have some concerns about the Kansas offense entering this season um first of all the OC's gone cotal Nikki he's gone he's with Penn State now uh they bring in Jeff Grimes who's been with Baylor the last three years and you know what that might be a great hire but in terms of week one week two counting on this Kansas offense to come out and put up 50 points on the road in these conference games it's a tough ask and keep in mind Kansas did take some losses on the offensive side of the ball I mean they bring back Jaylen Daniels who missed most of last season but he's back at quarterback they got Devon Neil back at running back they got some receivers they got the tight end they have all the fantasy football positions so at first glance you're like oh Kansas brings everyone back they're loaded well actually look at the offensive line they lose the entire left side the left tackle the left guard and the center all gone from last year's unit um and the left tackle in the center they were both All Conference so they lose their two best offensive lineman and this offensive line was huge a huge part of the offense this is one of the best run blocking offensive lines in college football so I'm a little concerned with Kansas taking such heavy losses on the offensive line sure all the skill positions look great but if the offensive line is losing their battles up front makes their job a lot harder um now we did see Kansas play a game already against lyndenwood um jayen Daniels looked excellent he did throw an interception on the second drive but I mean it was his first time playing in 11 months so let's cut him some slack other than that one interception he looked very good 150 yards touchdown almost 10 yards per pass attempt again it was lindwood um as far as running the ball Kansas looked Unstoppable 331 yards on the ground 72 yards per carry again this is lyndenwood it's not like we would even notice if there are issues on the Kansas offensive line they played lyndenwood uh so will it be the same story on the road in Illinois now Illinois's defense last year was definitely disappointing they're missing their guy uh he's over at Purdue now they're d uh defensive numbers took a hit last year if you're wind back a couple years this was one of the best defenses in the country with wither spoon that corner I mean they were loaded uh took a huge step backwards last year lost a ton of production hopefully this is a step back towards where they were in 20122 you could see against the Run 39th in yards per carry 85th in success rate 87th in effective Rush uh defensive line not great 105th in defensive line yards 93rd in stuff rate 34th ranked run defense um but as a whole this defensive front compared to 2022 to that unit not good now it gets even deeper than that Illinois defensive line from last year got crushed the top four are gone this Graphics has two in the NFL but really one got drafted and the other one I think I I don't I I think he got cut so I think it's just one in the NFL but still they they lose their top four defensive lineman from last year but like I just got done explaining Kansas offensive line isn't in great shape either so I'm not quite as worried about this as I would be if Kansas had four starters back on the offensive line so both the Illinois defensive line and the Kansas offensive line both got gutted but if you look at the rest of Illinois defense it's actually looking pretty good three of their four linebackers are back I believe they bring three starters back in the secondary as well I think it's both safeties so yeah defensive line is a concern but the rest rest of their defense is looking pretty solid overall on this side of the ball by no means am I saying Illinois defense is going to shut Kansas down there's just too many Playmakers but I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois's defensive front s is able to give Kansas Run game a little bit of a hard time force Jaylen Daniels to make plays with his arm on the road I mean he hasn't played in a road game in a full year conference game I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois's defense is able to give them some problems certainly early in the game now on the other side of the ball we got the Illinois offense and they definitely took some hits I believe three of their top five wide receivers are gone the tight end is gone rb1 is gone he transferred in conference actually um just two starters gone on the offensive line so they are bringing back three starters on the offensive line which is huge cuz Brett BMA is a very successful head coach when it comes to developing NFL offensive lineman in fact check this out this comes from Phil steel now that that Nick Sabin has retired Brett belma has sent more offensive linemen to the NFL than any other head coach in college football so the fact that Illinois is bringing back three offensive linemen from last year that's solid cuz there's a good chance one or two of them are going to be NFL kids yes I know losing the running back losing the tight end losing some receivers I know that's concerning but I think the offensive line is going to be in good shape and they bring back the quarterback who is the most valuable player on this offense uh if you look at Illinois's offensive metrics from last year they had a solid passing attack 46 in yards per pass attempt 24th in success rate they were rated 30th and effective pass like I said Luke altme is back here are his numbers from last year and yes these don't look great just under 1900 yards he only played in in eight or nine games so he didn't play the whole season 13 touchdowns 10 interceptions and he might be thinking that's it's not that great but you got to keep in mind that earlier in the season when he first got the starting job his second or third game he threw zero touchdowns four interceptions against pen State he had an absolutely terrible game against pen State and if you take that game out these numbers actually look pretty good I mean if you really pull up Luke alm's game logs from last year took over the starting job and his first three games were rough I mean especially that Penn State game he he had never started before he had no experience as a starter so he took over uh as starter had a few rough games but look at the rest of his season he really got comfortable in fact he had a couple really nice Road WIS at the end there so I really like that at the end of the season alt Meers seemed to be playing his best football um and the opener this year kind of picked up right where he left off granted didn't play anybody threw 205 yards nine yards per attempt well 8.9 four touchdowns no interception so off to a great start this year also I like that he had more success at home last year throwing the ball check this out Illinois last season 16th in the country and passing success rate at home so secondaries were having problems coming into this stadium and stopping altm I like that we know Kansas defense isn't anything special here are the metrics uh 88th in yards per carry allow 107th in success rate rushing 69th in yards per pass attempt allowed 103 in pass defense success rate look at the defensive line numbers from Kansas here I mean not good 120th in pressure rate 130th and stuff rate not great against the Run not great pressuring the passer and check this out can Kansas defensive front seven five of the seven starters are gone so Not only was Kansas defense bad last year but they also lost a ton of production so I like this matchup for altme and the Illinois offense I think they're going to have some success here keep in mind like I said earlier this is jayen Daniels first road game since September 16th of last year big conference game on the road I think he might get off to a shaky start I think that Illinoi defense is going to catch him off guard and then take a look at Luke alm's first and second half splits from last season in the first half of games last year 68.5% completions 7.6 yards per attempt eight touchdowns to three picks noticeably better than his numbers in the second half so Jaylen Daniels first Road in the year Illinois catching him off guard Luke almire thrown a couple touch touchdown passes early we're catching three and a half points in the first half I locked it in I bet it I took Illinois first half plus three and a half um I also like Illinois to cover the number on the full game but the bet I actually placed was Illinois first half plus 3 and A2 if you want to see all the bets I currently have open head over to Kyle kms.com and click on open bets you can see all my bets as well as uh everyone on the staff here so if you're interested head over there also if you sign up for SAU Network plus it comes comes with access to the Discord and you can participate in the weekly betting League $150 and one of our handicapping trophies go to the winner every single week if you're getting in on week one you need to have your bets submitted on the website by Thursday so yeah head over to the website if you're interested in that live shows weekdays 4 p.m. Eastern Time weekends 10: a.m. eastern time obviously Saturday is the big one 10:00 a.m. up to kickoff we'll go through every single game on the board let's have ourselves a nice week two week one didn't go great for me so definitely need to bounce back here uh remember to bet responsibly and I'll talk to you in the Discord n