Dillon Gabriel MASSIVE FAVORITE to win the Heisman, bodes well for 2024 team | Oregon Ducks Podcast

how many of you are superstitious out there well I'm not superstitious I'm very superstitious so recent history would tell you that Dylan Gabriel being a now sizable Heisman betting favorite doesn't bode well for his Heisman chances and can Trends be broken yes of course of course Trends can always they don't last forever Dylan Gabriel's plus 550 to win the Heisman Carson Beck is next behind him at plus 800 and then Quinn y's at plus 1200 those are the quarterbacks at Georgia and Texas respectively if you did not know so I'll start with the uh less ideal aspect of this from a Superstition standpoint and then I will get to the positive element of it last year Caleb Williams went into the season as a plus 500 Heisman favorite USC had a horrible year Jaden Daniels was actually second at plus 1,000 Michael penck and Quinn yers were plus 1200 Kate kumnick and Jordan Travis were plus 1600 those were your top five Heisman odds going into the season according to our friends at FanDuel Bo Knicks by the way was kind of in the next Group after the top five at plus 18800 and had Oregon won the Pack 12 championship game bonck would have won the Heisman so you would think based on that year well you don't want to be inside the top five well Jaden Daniels did win the Heisman his team didn't have a great year Caleb Williams was the favorite after being the reigning Heisman winner his team did not have a great year but penx and yours did kumnick and Travis one not so good one very good from a team standpoint the year before in 2022 preseason Heisman favorite by a substantial amount CJ strad he did not win the Heisman who did the preseason number two Bryce young plus 400 Caleb Williams was plus 600 sorry Bryce young was the Heisman winner of the Year price Caleb Williams went on to win it he was the preseason number three so being inside of the top five based on recent Trends is a good indicator that you have a chance to win the Heisman and by the way in 2022 just a fun tidbit here djang wild Clemson he's now at Florida State his third school was plus 2500 Will Anderson and Dylan Gabriel were next at tied for fifth in the preseason Heisman odds when Gabriel first got to Oklahoma at plus 3,000 and now har he is the preseason Heisman betting favorite and if you go look at the history of preseason favorites to win the Heisman they almost never win the Heisman Trophy but that's the bad Superstition side but here's the more factual frankly upward look at it from from Oregon standpoint Dylan Gabriel being the Heisman favorite is a reflection of how Vegas which only exists to make money and get things right far more often than not feels about Oregon's team if you put Dylan Gabriel on just as an example Washington is he sniffing the top 10 Heisman odds no I don't think so because what do you have to have to win a Heisman Trophy a team that puts you in the National Spotlight that puts you on big games that gives you a chance to actually win those big games you have to either have that or you do the Jaden Daniels or Lamar Jackson approach where you put up numbers that are so crazily stupid and good that you just have to get the Heisman Trophy but also you might need some help if you don't have the team success so Vegas feels really confident in Oregon's team success and guess what so am I and Dylan Gabriel is a reason why do I think he's going to win the Heisman no do I care not really would it be great of course am I rooting for him to win the Heisman duh of course I want him to win the Heisman Trophy I would like Oregon to win the Heisman Trophy every year it's great for The Branding of of the program and it's also just an exciting thing to watch and I remember the day very vividly that Mariota won it and that was just that was such an awesome thing to see like wow an Oregon player has finally broken through one Heisman Trophy could Dylan Gabriel do that well history tells you he'd have to put up the best numbers of his career he's got the best team that he's been on in his college career though so he's got that going for him making the adjustment in one year though to a new environment to have a Heisman winning season it's hard it it is incredibly hard Caleb Williams for instance played a little at Oklahoma before going to USC and winning the Heisman or you think about a guy like Joe burrow he had one season with LSU before he popped in his second year Bo Knicks was on track to win the Heisman last year in his second season with the Ducks it is really really hard even for a talented player to go to a new location and have a Heisman Trophy caliber season I'm not saying it's never happened before but it's tough it it is tough and the threshold is so high so generally for quarterbacks you have to have over 4,500 yards and account for at least 45 touchdowns if you look at the Heisman Trophy winners from the past several seasons they have somewhere between 4,500 and 5,000 or more yards Joe burrow by the way uh think about this Michael penx last year threw for just under 5,000 yards Joe burrow in his Heisman season 2019 went for 5600 yards pretty sure Bryce young had a 5,000 plus yard season those be some crazy numbers or is going to run the ball too well too often and too successfully which is the same thing as too well so I kind of repeated myself whatever they're going to do that too much for Dylan Gabriel to have the chance though he's got the receiving core to to throw for that many yards Oregon's not running the Mike Leach a raid here Rip but uh I I just saw that and thought wow it's one thing for him to be the favorite but I think it's as much a reflection of Oregon's team as it is of Gabriel who I like and there's no other quarterback in the Big 10 that I would rather have I think Oregon has the better quarterback in all 12 games going into this season for 2024 down the line sure some young guys could pop but going into this season Oregon's got the better quarterback in all 12 games turns out it gives you a really good chance to win gives you a really really good chance to win so I I think for Gabriel it's great for him to get that sort of attention and respect for the career that he has had because he put up great numbers last year and Oklahoma was a good te team and he was a part of you know the rebuild when Lincoln Riley left but you know plus 550 to Carson Beck being plus 800 that's a that's a sizable Gap caught my eye I don't think Gabriel wins but gosh I hope he does that would be that'd be a heck of a story and then people would get upset because he will have played more games than b Knicks um I think because B Knicks is a bigger name in college foal and Dylan Gabriel you're not going to see that narrative kind of fly around just in you know passive comments and whatnot about oh man is B Nick's back for an e year you know how many games he started or he's you know probably married with three kids or whatever bonx was married last year admittedly but um I just think that uh I I think Gabriel is in a really really good spot Superstition to tell you it's not great to be the preseason Heisman betting favorite I'd also rather have a national championship than a Heisman trophy so I'm not worried about Oregon trying to Goose his stats to go win the Heisman Trophy they just want to win they just want and by the way if Oregon gets the national championship level and Gabriel's having the sort of season I expect him to he could make his way to New York it's just that there are a lot of other really good players in college football that's why I have been and continue to be you know pumping the breaks on Dylan Gabriel's Heisman chances I don't think they're non-existent the landscape of college football though it's really hard it's really hard and a lot of things have to go your way but Dylan Gabriel Oregon quarterback your Heisman betting favorite going into the season which starts in two days so