Win the Debate, Lose the Election?

hello and welcome to this edition of campaign catchup joined as always by cbn's David Brody and John stoles gentlemen a lot to get to post debate there's still a lot of commentary flying around about what we saw on Tuesday night and uh let's just start first with early indications as to how the electorat is moving at all if we know anything at all uh with the numbers I know David you've got some uh new data on where evangelicals stand I do uh Dan and it's great news not just good news it's great news for Donald Trump uh and it has to do with evangelicals uh support for him uh White uh Evangelical Protestant um voters that's considered kind of Trump's base if you will uh 82% that's his support among white Evangelical Protestants 82% now uh that puts Comm Harris at about 16% 2% I guess are just you know at Denny's I'm not quite sure what they're doing uh but but uh that's a bad number for kamla by the way and so why is it a good number why is it a bad number because uh Donald Trump won the White House with 80% support of evangelicals he's at 82% right now which is even better so 80% is the litmus test or at least that's the threshold I should say uh and if he's over 80% he's gonna he's going to win and that's not my analysis that's actually from people like Ralph Reed and Tony Perkins and go down the list they're all saying they they crunch the numbers they do this for a living if he's at 80% or higher he's going to win well he's at 82% and the understanding at least within the get out the vote operation from an Evangelical perspective is that that number is going to even go higher uh come election day uh because the get out the vote effort is still going on the voter research is still going on more evangelicals are getting more in tune with what's going on with the election as election day nears so you put it all together I mean we we could be seeing potentially 83 84% uh and if that is the case and forget even 83 84 if it stays at 82 it's over it's over it doesn't matter we can talk about anything else I let's go talk about the weather at this point I mean because it is it is over um does that can I just throw it in there David does that depend on how many of them come out I mean it's great that he's got the high number but if the turnout's really low does that impact it at all well I mean you can make that argument the problem is is that it still holds true throughout all election as it relates to the Evangelical vote in other words whatever the Electoral electoral whatever the U the count is the majority count whether it be 24% of the electorate or do white Evangelical Christians make up uh you know 26% of the electorate either way that 80% figure of whatever that percentage is 24 25 26 it still gets Trump over the top uh now of course if there are other subsets if you will of Voters that are voting at a larger clip especially in the kamla Harris situation uh that you know example college educated white Suburban women if that number is higher much higher then that might offset some of that but that's not expected to be at that at that number 82% is you know percentage points matter here and if you're at 82% that's going to be a very tough number for anybody to overcome yeah and we've seen as I said the spin the last couple days here or well day day and a half or so since the debate actually took place John and obviously it's a little bit quick of a turnaround to have to really know what's happening in the polls right but uh you know what's your sense as to what we're seeing as far as I mean what we know now from the polls and what we can expect to see going forward here I I think some of the numbers David just mentioned are are pretty interesting especially in light of the fact that some pro-life groups are are have been raising eyebrows at former president Trump's position on abortion and uh and some of the things some of the statements that he's made um where he it seemingly feels as like there there needs to be some kind of flexibility there needs to be some kind of um a certain number of weeks uh where where he would feel most comfortable but he also has said it's up to the states and each state should decide for itself uh what what is what is comfortable for them but uh the pro-life Community is has has not been happy with what Donald Trump has been saying over the last few weeks certainly happy that uh he got three conservative Supreme Court Justices nominated ated and roie Wade was overturned but um I guess what we're seeing if those numbers are to be believed is that most Evangelical Christians do not share the same level of concern as as pro-life groups are seemingly voicing on that particular issue um maybe they are maybe they aren't maybe there's some noise in those numbers that that we're not hearing but if his numbers are are continuing to be that strong despite some of those concerns despite some of those statements made by former president Trump you I think it's I think it's an interesting cross-section and certainly worth diving in be' love to see more data uh done on on that particular on that particular issue with that group but we may not get that and John like where do they go because if you are frustrated at what Trump is saying like do you then go run to kamla Harris I mean I think if you're a pro-life that's not that's why that's why he's I think that's one of the reasons he feels comfortable with this position is because I think he has seen Republicans lose some elections in part because of this issue in certain States and and he doesn't see it he doesn't see a total abortion ban on a national level as a as a as a winning strategy for for him and and so I think I think you're right there there's no if the alternative is what the Harris and walls campaign are saying um what their position on on abortion is then if you're an Evangelical you probably and do end up going over to Donald Trump even if he doesn't align with you perfectly on the issue well let's also remember guys that this is the first presidential election since roie Wade presidential election since roie weade and so this idea that we're in 2004 or 1984 or any of those fours um where there were all these single issue pro-life voters because roie Wade hadn't been overturned you know that tra is left the station that that there are very few single issue voters anymore especially on the life issue uh after post roie Wade I I think what you're you're seeing here is that evangelicals are seeing two things one roie Wade has been overturned so it might not be as much of an issue and two we're in a different culture War situation today it's a much different situation it's not just the life issue the marriage issue sadly has fallen by the wayside to a degree with oberfeld uh in the Supreme Court decision of 2015 when Obama was President so so now it's kind of like a new host of issues as it relates to gender transition surgeries and women playing in men's sports and uh or excuse me men playing in women's sports sorry I Got It reversed Men playing in women's sports uh and the weaponization of government in terms of putting pro-life activists behind bars but you know that type of stuff that that's where we're at from a cultural perspective all right let's shift gears a little bit here and let's go people because people are still kind of talking about what happened at this debate and there is a lot of talk still around the moderators and so specifically the claim here and the accusation is that it was three versus one essentially because you had mure and I'm forgetting the other co-hosts L lindsy Davis lindsy Davis I keep forgetting it it's one of those names for whatever reason I'll just never remember but anyway Lindsey Davis um so they jumped in moldable times to fact check Trump but then there were several opportunities according to everything that I'm seeing online that he could have they could have done that for Harris but neglected to do that David what do you what do you make of the claims well they're all legitimate I mean we can have a a larger debate uh we were talking before we came on and John maybe you can bring this up after I'm kind of finished uh you know just speaking for about an hour and a half here um but uh you know we were we G have a larger discussion about the the role of a debate moderator uh but look I mean to any casual Observer not a partisan just a casual Observer was pretty clear that they continue to fact check Trump and time and didn't do any fact checks for K I mean that that's just like facts I mean that I'm going to fact check the fact Checkers I mean it's just a fact so so it's clearly frustrating uh and then here's the other problem even when they did fact check Trump they got a couple of their fact checks wrong I mean that the whole thing on abortion I mean you know Lindsey Davis said there's no state in the country that does that allows a birth or or for uh um children I just say children for abortions to what am I trying to say but basically uh for when the baby's born like an AB botched abortion and the baby's alive and then they neglect care afterwards I think that's yeah that's essenti the situation he was bringing up right sorry about that but the bottom line is that's not true Minnesota has a law right now Tim Wall's State I mean eight babies were born alive literally and denied life sustaining care that's called killing a baby I mean if you if you deny someone life sustaining care that's called by any definition you're killing a baby so they were wrong and where's the retraction by ABC News anyhow there's a lot to unpack there but um it makes you wonder a couple of things number one what would have happened if it was a conservative friendly uh Network would kamla Harris been able to so so to speak survive a three-on-one uh I think me me thinks not um and and two it does raise the Spectre of kind of what the future holds here because honestly this whole idea of the the old school way of doing things I think has to change after this I think this is a watershed moment in debate history I think yeah go ahead Dan well I like our idea David we talked on on another uh segment about and maybe in the future they just need to do a home and away right you just have you have one kind of side that's kind of leans one political party one that leans other political party and it's just a much tougher interview on the on the away game for you see who can handle the away game better yeah can I quickly say before John jumps in I think to use the baseball analogy I decided they should do a day night double header I think they literally a debate one to three then get on a bus and go somewhere else and play a night game that's the way I see it right let's stop pretending but John what do you think of the role of the moderator here because uh should they be factchecking should they just kind of sit back I mean what what do you what's your take on that I will say in some of the some of the the folks that I follow on on X and online are not conservatives they're they're on the other side of of the defense and um they believe that it is the role of a moderator to aggressively fact check things that are not and and there are there are others who decide it's not the role of the moderator I think I think where some people get maybe confused or they they think that the job should be the same is if you're an interviewer interviewing someone so let's say let's Saye former president Trump sits down for a one-on-one interview with David M and he says stuff that ABC knows that David M believes should be fact checked you can make the argument that an interviewer to an interviewee should be factchecking I think that all of us would want an interviewer to to fact check or to challenge an interviewee no matter who it is whether it's a Republican or a Democrat if they were saying something that they knew not to be true or if they had their facts wrong and they needed to have their facts straightened out I think it's different when you get to a debate stage I mean my kids are are are getting started in in doing debate and it's the job of the other debater the the the person that they are debating against to come at that them with with facts if they've got something if they've gotten something wrong to to rebut right I mean that's the whole point of like you make your statement and then you have a rebuttal and then you may have another rebuttal after that but that's how it's supposed to go with the CNN debate the CNN hosts ask the questions and you didn't I mean you it was on the other candidate to rebut some something if someone said something that that wasn't true or that that wasn't accurate in this case the the moderators for ABC News decided that it was going to be their job which I think if you if you're even it's fine it's kind of like if you're watching baseball and the home plate umpire stinks right he's calling pitches that are a foot off the plate strikes it's awful he should be doing his job better but if it's fair if you're watching a football game and there's a lot of penalties but it's being called fairly you can at least say well at least it's even at least it's at least both sides are are getting the same bad calls and you just have to adjust right you have to adjust your game plan you have to change what it is that you're doing with this debate it did not seem as though the the factchecking certainly was was as vociferous against kamla Harris as it was against Donald Trump and as as someone personally who kind of bristles when I hear a lot of a lot of talk against the the the media necessarily I just I I want to make sure that the media is held accountable when they when they are off track and in this case I do believe ABC News did not handle this situation fairly it did not seem as though that that it was evenhanded one way or the other and and I think and I think that has to be something that's addressed moving forward I'm not sure how but I think the role of a moderator is to in a debate is to Simply say is to keep the cars on the train right just make sure that make sure that the debate questions are being asked that the timing is being followed and allow for each of The Debaters to Counterpoint and counter Punch Yeah and it and it makes it I'll just add to that John it just it makes it easier on the moderator if they don't try to fact check real time and make it even because you're it's almost impossible to get that even you don't I mean maybe you don't have the fact off the top of your head on something that somebody says even though you know it's wrong and you can't jump in and so you're just going to leave stuff on the floor there and in this case they tried it I guess and didn't fact check Harris one time and then one other thing David before you hop in that I noticed that I thought was subtle it was a little more subtle but it was kind of to what John's speaking of of when you choose to come in and not when both candidates kind of danced around a couple different answers and didn't really fully give an answer but when Trump did it they M called him out on it and said you didn't really answer the question there it's a straightforward question what's your answer and then when Harris did it he just changed the topics and said I want to move on and and so yeah it's when you start interjecting like that you better do your best to keep it balanced because then people have a legitimate gripe against you so many great points and John just to take a little bit of an issue maybe maybe you want to restate it or or or or maybe not but you said that the ABC didn't fact check uh Harris as V what was it uh vociferously vociferously sorry that's a very long syllable word I typically don't use V vociferously As Trump let's be clear as Dan said they did not fact check her once not once it wasn't as vociferously that that that suggests that there was a couple for her and and seven for Trump no it was whatever it was for Trump four five6 zero for Harris that's important I mean I I just want I want to clarify that because you know if we start to kind of get into like well it wasn't as much no was it wasn't it was it was literally a shut out and I think that's important um number two Dan to your point um I I think there's a lot to say here look I think the role of a debate moderator should not be a fact Checker you should not be because here's why it's up to the candidate to fact check because guess what you're running for president of the United States do your job and figure it out this is the number one job in the entire world if you can't on your feet be nimble enough to fact check someone in real time then get stage and go to Denny's it's ridiculous it's ridiculous and so I I really am I feel strongly about I kind of feel a bit angry about it you know and and shame on Donald Trump shame on Donald Trump for not factchecking KLA Harris on all the stuff she was saying she was getting away with lie after lie after lie well the debate moderators weren't doing their job but Donald Trump wasn't doing his job either I think I think that's what and that's the frustrating part when they try to get into the factchecking thing especially when it becomes one-sided sort of how it was uh in this particular debate because to the average person who maybe doesn't pay attention to a lot of this stuff there is you know a certain amount of authority that comes from the debate moderator right they're up there they're the official and they're constantly factchecking Trump and then the other candidate it kind of looks like well then when Trump tries to say hey you were incorrect on that you lied I mean I think he said she lied a few times on something but it it just doesn't land as well to maybe a person who's not paying attention because the moderator is not backing them up well just just to quickly follow up on that um the to your point Dan the problem here is that you can't be a a fact Checker as a moderator because it becomes subjective yeah uh and that's the main point because honestly both campaigns will have a great they'll say you didn't fact check on that but you fact checked on this you and we can go down I mean literally you know you you can't do it you'll never win that game so therefore you shouldn't be in the business of that game you should just be I do think they should be uh the the debate moderator should be clarifying position so if someone if it's not clear uh you know so did you mean this I'm just trying to understand exactly that's fine or you didn't answer the question so for example Lindsey Davis I mean it was atrocious she asked a really good question she said uh you're to KLA Harris you flip-flop I'm not I'm paraphrasing you say flip-flop but you know you change your position on Medicare you change your position on decriminalization at the border you change your position and then K Harris said Lindsay I'm gonna get to all of that but first let me talk about this well guess what she talked about that and never addressed any of the other stuff so lindsy uh uh Davis didn't do her job by following up and say okay thank you for the two minutes KLA but now could you answer my question she never did that NE I mean and then shame on Donald Trump for saying you know what uh uh she he should have like looked right into the camera and said to the American people did you see that American people uh she didn't answer any of those questions so comma uh I know I can't ask you a question um but technically because the debate rules are as such but let me tell you that in this and then go into her flipflops but but he didn't do it either so you know and and I just want to say one last thing sorry I I know I'm saying a lot here but but the the problem that cons the conservative media have here is that they're all uh amped up and all upset about ABC and well they should be but they're they're letting Trump off the hook a little bit too that's right you know what and that's not right I mean two things can be equally true ABC News was horrible that is a headline Donald Trump was horrible that's also a headline and the conservatives just want to talk about ABC and I I understand why they want to talk about ABC I get it they don't want to talk about their guy but their guy was bad and and and they they need to understand that and not that they care uh but I'm just saying that that that's just a little disconcerting but this and it's true because this is the guy who I mean this is normally one of Trump's strong suits right so it's not like this ongoing critique of trump it's he's usually pretty good with zingers in those situations right and like when when the media's when when ABC like he should have felt out that they were being a little one-sided on that and I'm I was surprised there was no Zinger from him saying am I debating you uh David are we having the debate here or what's going on like that's the sort of thing I've come to expect from Trump because oh go ahead John you I'm gonna answer that but go ahead John yeah go ahead well no I was just gonna say I I before you brought that point up that's exactly what I was gonna say I think I think if the Trump campaign is going to spend the next week two weeks and and conservatives in the media are going to spend the next two weeks talking about the debate moderators they're not going to do their candidate any favor like there has to be an assessment of how prepared was Donald Trump for this debate he he spent the days leading up to the debate continuing to campaign continuing to do his rallies which is which is totally understandable we've seen candidates do that before I think this could be a situation where he rolled in there knowing this was his what seventh debate in the general election that maybe there was a sense of overconfidence coming off the previous debate coming into this one against uh someone who'd never he' never debated before I don't know that he and I don't know this for sure I don't know that that he in his campaign put in the work to to actually be prepared for this debate and kamla Harris spent five days in Pittsburgh she got off the campaign Trail uh I think former president Trump even ridiculed her poked fun at the fact that she was nowhere to be seen on the campaign trail that she was getting ready for this debate well whatever it is that they prepared her for they did a fantastic job they knew exactly what lines to feed her to get under Trump's skin and the Trump C it just it felt like Trump was doing a campaign rally on the debate stage and that he wasow cheer him when he of these things and and it just there was no there was no second act there was no there was nothing else to go to when when that material didn't work and I want to clear something I want to clear something up real quick here guys um for for everyone watching because I know people who like Harris you know get mad at us in the comments whenever we say something you know against her when or the ABC moderators whatever the people that like Trump get mad at us when we criticize Trump on on any performance thing we're looking at this very zoomed in guys you have to understand when you're looking at a debate a presidential debate what you are looking at is how we know Trump supporters are going to vote for Trump right and so the things that he says are going to resonate with Trump supporters the Harris voters that are already in her camp they're going to all the things she's saying it's going to resonate with them what we're looking at is what are they saying to win those undecided voters and get more voters into their camps so it's it's a very specific look at the things they're doing so when you say something like well you know Trump didn't have a good debate it's not that he didn't have any you know good points from the conservative perspective it's not that he didn't say anything that was you know overwhelmingly true or you know resonating with the American people it's did he do it in an effective enough manner or did she do it in an effective enough manner to win more people to their side that they didn't have before I just want to clear that up because that's what we're looking we're really like zooming in on this thing and I think people get a little sensitive at times uh and and take read too much into the critiques yeah I just want to respond to something John said I I disagree in terms of the preparation um look first of all Donald Trump all right he's not sitting there reading white papers okay got it we we we all know that but that's not what we're talking about here Donald Trump does things to the way Donald Trump does things but guess what the way he prepared for this debate was probably the way he prepared for the Joe Biden debate and some other debates that he did well in so and so so so you can't make the argument that he didn't prepare less I think Donald Trump prepares the way he does all the time I think the difference here is is that the variable was KLA Harris getting under his skin and specifically and this is the part and Dan I think you and I talked about this specifically it wasn't the in it wasn't the Jabs it was the actual personal insults it was the rally size and you're a disgrace and 81 million people want you fired when she started doing that he got undisciplined and that was the problem he had all the material he knew it all he was prepared because you know he he lives and breathes his stuff okay so you know maybe he's a little older whatever you want to take a percentage off for that but the point is is that I don't think it was preparation because I think his preparation for this was was really going to be the same pretty much for I mean I mean they they brought in Tulsi gabard for goodness sake I mean they really don't typically that he was prepared he just got off his game because she was very very good at the specific insult Let's uh let's I mean let's go to we've done several Sports analogies here guys so you're saying that Harris essentially played the Draymond Green role right like she got under the Dennis Rodman she got she got under the skin of the opponent and then you know you've practiced all week for a game and then you're playing and then somebody irritates you and gets you annoyed and you start getting technical fouls all over the place so you're saying that's I mean is that is that a fair analogy there to what you're saying yes Donald Trump is Draymond Green correct I mean Harris Harris Harris Trump is Rodman yeah and then Trump yeah he fell for it and went all right well all right guys well I mean that it's an interesting conversation because like you said I I don't know if we're gonna have another debate or not but it'll be oh yeah I mean we'll C you think so you think we're having another one I think we will and here's why uh for for a couple of reasons one I think KLA Harris's campaign still believes truth serum here I think they think they're losing I think they they they know they're losing we have to see forest from the trees here everybody's like oh she had a great night she's really she's much better than we thought she didn't do word salad ho and she's losing this race and and how do I know she's losing this race one reason she came out aggressive at the top and the reason she and not not with Jabs and insults at the top if you notice the Jabs and insults didn't come till later she came out aggressive at the top anybody that's aggressive in a debate at the top that suggests they are losing that they feel like they need to make a an imprint a difference um and so that's why she wants a second debate because they think they're losing they still think they're losing and once again losing I'm the same by a lot but they think they're losing and now after this debate darn straight they want another debate having said that they better be careful be careful what you wish for because Trump typically doesn't do two bad debates in a row as matter of fact I would suggest he he'll be very good the next time as for Trump of course he wants another debate he wants to do over he wants to do over yeah I think you would expect to see more sort of trumpy and zingers and things of that nature if if we were to get another one John what do you see coming down the road another debate yeah I mean I I think David's right I mean if if I'm the Harris campaign I wouldn't do another one uh but I I think that she she probably will she had said before this debate that if he shows up for for the one uh last Tuesday or on Tuesday night that she would be ready to do another one likely in October and so now that she's now that she said that I imagine she'll they'll they'll probably you know keep her to her word it just be interesting to see if there is a third one what Outlet is it would she agree to do a Fox News debate um you know that seems to be the most logical if there is a third debate the most logical spot for the next one um but I think you're right and I think the numbers are so close right now and I think it's interesting if we look back and we can kind of see is she winning is she losing right now David you've talked about a numerous times the fact that the numbers in the polling generally don't reflect the amount of support that that Trump has had at this time on September 12th back in 2020 Biden had a nearly 8 point lead according to the real clear politics average poll in 2016 Hillary Clinton was up 2.8 points at this point again on a national scale and and right now Harris has maybe it's like a point less than a point point and a half depending on on on the poll so uh this is a this is a close race it probably is Trump's in the lead in most of these Battleground States if if previous polling is is to be believed and so I think there is still something for her to win now that being said if I don't think this is going to happen but if she jumps six seven points in in some of these polls or anything like that then maybe that changes the equation for again I don't think that's likely but it we kind of also need to wait and see a couple of days what what new polling looks like and and see if there's enough of a bump for her to discourage her from doing a third debate well and the conventional wisdom is you've got to be at plus five if you're a democrat in National polls National I'm talking about you got to be a plus five to have a shot at winning if you're under plus five going into uh November 5th you're going to lose most likely you're going to lose I mean unless there's some wild card out there you're going to lose yeah well and that's interesting you mentioned the eight-point lead that Biden had at this time John and that race in 2020 ended up the official tally was uh Biden I think by about four points so to your point David I mean that's uh you know you got to have that five-point lead if you're a Democrat I mean you know it's gonna shrink to some extent but it shrunk it shrunk four there for for Biden uh and so if he was with you know under that 5% it would have been a dead heat uh so uh all right well gentlemen I appreciate it as always good conversation and we'll look forward to doing it again soon thanks a lot thanks thanks John