Will Jessica Pegula win first grand slam? Can Aryna Sabalenka go one better? | US Open Final Preview

Pegula vs Muchova Chris we've got the final set here in New York Arena sabalenka against Jessica Pula Pula making her maiden slam final and sabalenka reaching this final yet again uh for the second straight Year and will'll be bidding to become the first player since I think Angie Kerber to win both hardcourt slams in one season uh but yeah I mean I think out of the two semi-finals the most dramatic one was that Pula MC Clash Pula she was 61 two love down Muka had points for three love and she managed to turn it around how did she do that Chris what a comeback what a comeback and you have to think for Muka there was a volley that she had that would have put her at three love up it wouldn't necessarily be a match point but I mean what a Houdini from Pula um really kind of stealing Victory from the jaws of defeat and I'm not sure how she does it but I think the levelheaded Pula she is so relaxed in those moments and sure she did say afterwards that she thought it was a bit embarrassing and she felt like she was being made to LIT like a beginner um but that is what Muka can do and before the match he said just how much he respected her um but everything was going in for Muka and I think Pula was maybe slow slow to start but I think as started to play a bit better it's so hard to keep the level that Maka was playing out I mean if you played like that for two sets I mean you'd beat everyone and be world number one yeah I mean it if Muka was you know outstanding in that first set Pula like she said was yeah she felt embarrassed at the way it was playing it was so one-sided she felt like she was going to burst into tears which you know for someone in their first semi-final in front of their home crowd it's not what you want IDE no not ideal at all but I think what's remarkable is that she just managed to to then flip that around you know she thinking about all her family and friends and the crowd there and just you know it could have been a very different story if she'd got kind of whitewashed out on that Court we'd be thinking oh you know first semi-final but didn't really stand a chance wasn't in the match and I think it's it's so good that she's managed to kind of turn this around and you know from being destroyed to being the Victor coming out on top making your first Land final like what what a what performance like overall by the end of the match um absolutely I was going to say Pro people wrong actually I think a lot of doubters yeah yeah a lot of doubters and previously in Slam quarterfinals um prior to this year she hadn't really had that much of an impact in the matches she's played it was quite a lot of straight sets losses and so for her brain not to go into I think if it was many other players they'd be thinking here we go again yeah um and it didn't happen like that she managed to to flick the switch uh her form came just in time but like a lot of players um not necessar just players but a lot of kind of the the media hasn't always taken that interest in p or given her sort of the respect that I think she deserves and I think that this result as you've talked about like what a breakout performance and it just just kind of proves to everybody that Jessa Pula is not only a top 10 player on the WTA tour she is also a player who can compete for slams well and after beating Shion in the last round you know she's a a world number one beating player and now getting to these latter stages of of slams proving those doubters wrong and I mean we've been we've doubted her in the past I think it's it'sit fair to say we've we've called her you know the bridesmaid the Andre rublev of of the WT which maybe now um but you know she's definitely proved uh that you know is a thing of the past hopefully and in just I mean obviously she had so much good form coming in she reached the final in Cincinnati um one in um Canada Canada so she's had you know major final titles this what an incredible hardcore swing so it's it's sort of not a surprise that she's reached this stage but I think yeah just in terms of that semi-final it's that momentum shift and just managing to kind of turn it around it's get I guess another I guess another um I don't know what's the what's the analogy I'm looking for but it's just proven that she canot only in her cap should FEA in her cap yes I was trying to think what would Joel say here he'd always bring the analogies out I haven't heard that in a while yeah we'll go with that string in her bow is that string in her bow that's it yes okay we got there but winningly and winning from different you know standpoints you you've got to do them all if you're going to win slams and she's kind of proving that yeah and it's happened a few years in a row hasn't it that Coco go had all the form coming in she won I think it was three tournaments in the runup to it um or was it two no two tournaments one Washington and then Cincinnati um final in Cincinnati a winner in Canada and then that form has carried the American all the way through to the final so often we say with Wimbledon if you win a leadup tournament you're almost definitely not going to win the tournament based on what the stats are saying um would well would you say that focusing on the hardcore um form coming in is the way that we should look at our predictions in future Kim I think with the US hardcore swing it does tend to be slightly different where the form coming in is is more um tangible maybe and it is does then reflect on the US Open courts and I don't know if that's cuz the courts play more similarly whereas some of the grass SC tournament is quite different grass to Wimbledon or it's just you know cuz the grass season is it's so much more specialist and it's coming after the clay season whereas here you know you've got a bit bit of that kind of time although the Olympics this year has obviously put a bit of a SP she went out early and sabalenka didn't play so maybe there's something to be said for not having the best run of the Olympics because obviously in that match with Quinn W Jen uh I mean she blew her off the court so maybe you can't have it all and fortunately for Muka she also couldn't have it all which was a big shame after the injuries that she's had actually both of these players Kim have had big layoffs from injury much more significant for Muka who didn't even think that she'd be able to make it back for Wimbledon uh she was targeting the Olympics didn't have the the best run there but she did back up her semi-final performance and obviously such a shame that the sickness did hit her in the last round do you think that that had an impact on this result and maybe that's why she was playing so aggressively in that first set to try and get it done quickly yeah because after the match M didn't really make any excuses or sort of say there was anything physical but she did have I think like a stomach issue like a bug or something from from before and I think yeah that that will zap you of your your energy so it's probably after a certain amount of time on court starting to feel depleted and just not able to kind of continue that you know efficient form like it has to affect you doesn't it oh absolutely I mean these people aren't you know superum to the extent that they can put aside you know heal functions illness yeah exactly it's not like you can separate everything on the core obviously ideally you'd be able to kind of just you know dissociate but that's just I don't think that's realistic so it is a real shame that if that is the influencing factor for Muka but that's not to say you know to take anything away from Pula because we don't know this this could have been the scenario anyway and obviously isn't playing up the sickness or wanting to make any excuses which is you know very sporting of her um and she did play fantastic tennis in that that first half of the match especially and she's had a great tournament making the semis again I think on the whole she'd be really really happy with that um compared to where she was you know after the US Open last year and that that injury I mean it was such a long layoff wasn't it and we spoke to her in esport and I think it was the first tournament she had back and asked her about the recovery and she didn't pick up a racket for such a long period of time it was such a tricky injury for her to come back from and um Pula said before that she was so impressed with her level that pretty much whenever she picks up a racket she's a real danger no matter how much she's been playing whether she's been injured so Kim that leads me to a question will Muk win a slam in 2025 can she carry this form over oh well that's a million dollar question uh Chris I'd like to think that she can and I think if she's not hampered by injury which know to some extent is obviously out of your control and it's just the luck of the draw as to whether you get an injury and the severity of it then if she can keep this form going I don't see why not obviously she's already reached a major final at Roland garos before I think I predicted her to win a slam a couple of years ago so it was Roland G maybe yeah which is always the hardest one with with eager Shon but maybe you know she's she's not so infallible as as we thought but um yeah I don't see why not I think she's she's right up there she's got a game for all surfaces and if she can keep this momentum going um obviously with the offseason the you know transition into the new year sometimes players who excel at the end of one season don't always keep that going so that can be you know just the sort of the time Factor on that may may influence things but I think the answer is yes it's possible yes but I can't be 100% sure Chris as ever we know in love yes but um yeah she has definitely you know had a very commendable tournament reach the semi-finals here and jpeg just a final note on her picking it around from you know on the verge of tears to being in your first grandon final you know what a fabulous pretty performance in front of your home crowd as well that is big yes New York uh born I think she is so yeah really fantastic stuff and will she be able to you know emulate what Coco goof did 12 months ago uh CU she is the only American in the final this time and she Sabalenka vs Navarro is up against the same woman that Coco go the only billionaire yeah she's the only billionaire in the final cuz Arena sabalenka came through Emma Navaro in the other semi-final uh straight sets this was 6376 although sabalenka making bit of hard work of that second set she did serve for a Navaro broke back it went to a tie break sabalenka coming through 72 in the in the tie break so she does reach back-to-back finals here at the US Open which Chris she's the first player to do that since oo got to be Serena Serena yeah absolutely uh 2019 Serena Williams was the last women's player to reach back-to-back finals here at the US Open saalan is going to be up against a very uh partisan local crowd again isn't she from Saturday she's relishing it I think one of the things that I think is quite funny is that every time she's playing in New York she's almost always in these later rounds playing against Americans and Coco goof last year she said Emma Navaro and then also she's doing it all over again with Pula in the final she did say and I thought you might like this as well um she'd get Margaritas for everyone if they cheered for her uh that's quite expens Arthur asash what's the capacity of Arthur RH like 20 20,000 something like that so that's very expensive I mean if she she'll need to win the trophy then to take that out of the paycheck I mean it prob does cover offer yeah it can come out the honey juice fund as well can't it but I mean she said double shots of tequila and I think maybe she hasn't looked at the prices I don't think she's a drinker herself obviously so um that could get expensive and it didn't necessarily work because the crowd were very much against her until the very end when they were cheering her on ahead of the finals so she said where was this support when I needed it afterwards to um when she was interviewed on court but for sabalenka it does feel a little bit different this year I think she's felt like she really wants to write the wrong of last year's final which I think did get away from her and there probably are some regrets that she has about that result a lot of those matches at slams last year was so close she could have got more titles than just the AO so I think for her getting two slams in one season I mean it's such a big goal for her and I think it would make for a very interesting situation Kim where she would have the most slams um on the WT tour in terms of uh current holders of them she'd have won two slams in a season so that's quite an interesting Dynamic at the top of the rankings yeah as we said earlier that's not been done since Herber I think winning well both hardcore slam titles in the same year but also just two slams in the same year Well no I think shonte won two a couple of years get open but it makes you think though that Osaka she did the US to Australia so she did consective yeah but she didn't necessarily do it in the same calendar year which feels a bit I don't know feels like she's being robbed of a mention to not count it yeah I mean she did it in a quicker turnaround so maybe it's about winning the first and the last that's as you said the four book it's quite hard to keep that form throughout the year yeah it's funny how the January to December calendar determines a lot of the stats but if you looked at it not rolling something be very different yeah exactly uh but Sabal Linka she does have an incredible run of form at the slams I think since 2022 Ren garos she's not lost before the quarterfinals uh which is you know incredibly consistent so do you think she is arguably like the best allrounder across the slams of of recent years Chris that's a great question I think so the the results don't lie um we've seen quite a lot of early exits for eager third rounds fourth rounds whereas sabalenka is a consistent Presence at all of those latest stages and the only quarterfinal she's had she was quite obviously hampered by injury against um Mera and draa and then she obviously did withdraw from Wimbledon so even making the quarterfinal in that respect is pretty impressive under the circumstances her game if you hit the ball as hard as she does I think probably it works on any callt it's a bit like sharova who started not necessarily well I mean this is an understatement she called herself a cow on ice on Clay um and she used to play it like a hardcore but if you do play it like a hardcore you could still get the ball past so many players um and sabalenka is hitting her forehand harder than jovic Sinner and alcaraz at this tournament which is I mean that's Monumental I mean talk about um a fantastic stat for women's tennis that you think they should be jumping on uh I think she's one mile per hour quicker than sinner so I'm not sure that average will stay the same for the whole tournament but I mean she's hitting the cover off the ball and she can hit anyone she can hit a barn door off um a wall and she can also hit anyone off the court that's for sure well she certainly hit Emma Navaro off the court although Navaro was a very respectable performance for someone who was in her first slam final you know at a home tournament with that with the home crowd she certainly wasn't um you know phased too much she still turned up so that was good and she's had a fantastic tournament you know getting the win over over Coco goof and then paa Bosa and reaching this stage for the first time so you know her star is still on the on the rise itself and you know I look forward to seeing more from her at the slams in in 2025 as well because I think you know I'd like to see her you know go further as well I think she's um yeah she's someone I do quite enjoy watching and yeah it's definitely been such a breakout season for her culminating in your first slam semi-final you know what a year for em andaro it's funny isn't it because she was playing Challenger events early in the year and playing 125 tournaments and now she's in Slam semi-finals it doesn't remind me of andrescu had some Challenger titles on her roster when she actually won the US Open so when you look at the points it's quite funny that some of them are made up from these small tournaments but now she's very much a big time player so she won't be entering a 125 anytime soon she's well in the top 10 in fact she be ranked number eight I believe at the end of this tournament and she'll be a forc to be reckon with in Asia with this confidence and the level that she's been playing at and maybe I'll eat my words saying that she wasn't playing her best tennis uh in New York because she did put on a great showing and who knows Sabal sabalenka might go on to win the title yeah well Navaro could be one to watch maybe for the end of season finals it sounds like that could be you know good a good goal opportunity for her um I know I come next year she's gonna have a lot of points to then defend you know that's that's the sort of downside of having a a big breakout year gaining lots of points you got a you got to back it up 12 months later but yeah um very good showing from Navaro for this US Open great for American tennis you know two Americans in the women's semis two in the in the men's as well so they've had a fantastic tournament but let's Final Preview + Predictions look to the final because we do have sabalenka against Pula they have played seven times before Chris the head-to-head is 52 in favor of sabalenka and their most recent showing was of course that Cincinnati final just a couple of weeks ago which was straight sets to sabalenka 6375 So based on their previous matches I mean where are you thinking for the final do you think that extra kind of experience and the the better head-to-head is going to favor sabalenka I always hope that you'll go first when we get to what do we think will happen because now I'm thinking how do I say I could say two things at once maybe I think the first set is going to be so important um Pula is particularly good when she gets that first set obviously she did come back from behind against muker and I think having that sort of result or not having the form in what is the biggest match of of your career at this point for pigula and turning it around that's a lot of confidence you can take from that so whatever the score line is if sabalenka is up you know 61 three love pagura will still think I've got a shot in this and that belief I think will be really important in the final having said that Pula could also be playing with a renewed sense of Freedom she could come out um and I think you do almost scrap the form book at this point because it's such a different environment and you're almost starting with a clean slate it's a a three set shootout to win the biggest title um well in front of the biggest crowd uh in tennis so if it goes to three I think Pula is Rock Solid in some of those really tight moments but again that first set it could also be Sav lenker and too so this is one of the most even I mean last year's final was pretty even on the balance of the forberg and I feel like we're having a very similar situation here it could be sabalenka in two if she plays her top level if she doesn't it could slip away from her yeah I think it depends what sort of sabalenka turns up and how she's impacted by the the crowd Margaritas The margaritas yeah so I think it kind of it rests on Sabal Lena's racket for me uh although you know looking at the head-to-head a lot of the Winds that savalen has had have come you know when Pila is probably not the player that she is currently now in the form that she's in so how much we rely on that head to head I'm not sure but I guess based on their recent meeting in Cincinnati I think going from that I would give sabalenka the edge I mean she was my pick at the start of the tournament to win Kim um I think I well who did you go for Chris I think I went for making the final and then losing to eager I think but I mean that went out the completely out the window um but I mean SA Lena as you say she's done it before she she really did um play so well in the AO final that was really impressive and you have to think that mentally you'd hope that she thinks she has the edge um because this is definitely and the way she's talking about it as though this is the one that she wants to make sure that she gets after last year's but we've seen that with onra you can't expect that you're going to win it you really can't you have to go in there with um believing that you can but not expecting that you will because I think no one's going to hand it to you and Jesse Pula fights for every single point and she does love the pace you look at some of their results that have happened know WTA finals um tricky conditions last year Pula got the win in straight sets um previously at the WT finals it was a win for sabalenka so it is a case that if it was on Clay you definitely would go with sabalenka but hardcore and in an American audience situation it might level it a little bit Kim yeah I think for me as well a big factor is that that first final kind of nerves you know get from a lot of players and not everyone you some people go into their first Land final and they they're fine but I think more often than not it's nervy it's edgy your first Land final especially at home how is how is pigula gonna manage those nerves because they they're going to be there but I think if she goes into it just thinking well look I I could have been down and out in those semi-finals it's kind of a miracle that I came through that so let's just go for it because I've got nothing to lose yeah I can see that sabinka the pressure is probably more on her uh with being the more experienced player at at this stage of a slam so yeah it's it's going to be a very intriguing final I think it's a great matchup I think we've got a good final ahead of us what would we predict though Kim sets come on I'm making you go first this time oh I'm gonna say sabalenka in two but I think it might be a similar score line to the Navaro match maybe like a tie break 63 64 I am just a believer today I don't know why Pula the story of coming back from behind I think it's going to be three sets Pula and I'm not just saying that to be different Kim so that one of us is Right hopefully we're not just hedging our bets between us like going for the when three scenarios we all get exposed I think but two we can say one either way well listeners let us know who you think's going to win uh let us know on social media we'd love to hear your thoughts um we do hope you've enjoyed our latest episode of the tennis weekly podcast remember to subscribe to us to stay up to dat on all of the action uh from the final weekend of Flushing Meadows uh we're on Apple podcast Spotify YouTube and all major podcasting platforms out there and if you like what you're hearing then make sure to leave us a rating and review on Apple podcasts or Spotify plus like And subscribe to us on YouTube and hit that notification Bell you can also follow us on social media or you can email the show we're on Facebook Instagram Tik Tok and x and the handle for all of those is tennis weekly pod we have a sale at the moment on our merch store it's 25% off if you go to etsy.com shoptennis weekly podcast you can always email us tell us what you think about our predictions tell us who's going to win and that's tennis weekly pod gmail.com or do check out our wonderful website tennis weekly. co.uk and we'll be back on Monday evening at tennis weekly HQ for our finals catchup of the US Open brought to you by fungible so I hope you can join us all for that uh if you can't wait until then we will be posting videos to our YouTube before the uh full podcast comes out so do check us out on there if you want to get ahead of the game uh but in the meantime it's goodbye from Chris goodbye and it's goodbye from me we'll see you again soon